Pennsylvania 18th CD; Special Election, March 13, 2018

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Addie
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Pennsylvania 18th CD; Special Election, March 13, 2018

#1

Post by Addie » Sun Dec 24, 2017 11:48 am

Politico
The next special election that could portend a Democratic wave

A March special election in a conservative-leaning stretch of western Pennsylvania that Donald Trump won by 20 points is the next big test of whether a Democratic wave will sweep the party into the House majority for the first time 2010.

The congressional seat left vacant by ex-Rep. Tim Murphy, an anti-abortion Republican who allegedly encouraged a lover to terminate a pregnancy, has all the makings of the next major special election showdown. It pits Democrat Conor Lamb, a young, telegenic Marine veteran with a political pedigree, against Rick Saccone, a Trump-supporting GOP state representative with a long voting record and doubters among local Republicans.

Though the district favors Republicans, the contrast in candidates, coupled with the enthusiasm coursing through the Democratic base around the country, has some GOP operatives in Washington and Pennsylvania on edge as they look ahead to the March 13 election. ...

Local Democrats are cautiously optimistic, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is "still assessing the matchup," according to a committee aide. On the other side, Republicans are considering whether Trump and Vice President Mike Pence might campaign in the district.

“This is a winnable race,” said Mike Mikus, a Democratic consultant in the state. “People are willing to vote for a Democrat, but you have to run a compelling race to do it and Lamb’s profile is perfect for this district.”

Even with national political winds at Lamb’s back, any Democrat has an uphill climb in Pennsylvania’s 18th District. Murphy easily won reelection for two decades, though Democrats hold a 70,000-voter registration advantage.


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Re: Pennsylvania 18th CD; Special Election, March 13, 2018

#2

Post by Addie » Fri Jan 05, 2018 4:49 pm

The Hill
GOP groups mobilize in Pennsylvania ahead of special election

A top GOP super PAC is opening two offices in Pennsylvania to pound the pavement ahead of a pivotal special House election there in March.

The Congressional Leadership Fund will open two offices on either side of the Pennsylvania 18th congressional district, which will hold a special election to replace Rep. Tim Murphy (R) on March 13. Murphy resigned late last year after damaging reports of an affair surfaced.

Those offices will house at least 50 full-time door knockers, the group announced, meant to convince voters to back the GOP nominee, state Rep. Rick Saccone, over Democrat Conor Lamb. ...

The 18th district is typically viewed a safe conservative seat — President Trump won by almost 20 points in 2016 and Murphy didn't face much electoral competition during his term. But Democrats are emboldened by their overperformance in special elections held in GOP territory last year, culminating in a high-profile victory in the Alabama Senate special election. Those trends, they believe, could foreshadow a far more competitive race in Pennsylvania than in past years. ...

National Democrats, by contrast, have so far kept their distance from Lamb in the conservative district. That's akin to the party's strategy in other red-leaning areas, like Alabama, where some operatives believe that the best course of action is to avoid anything that could link a Democratic candidate to the national party and potentially turn off conservative voters.


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Re: Pennsylvania 18th CD; Special Election, March 13, 2018

#3

Post by AndyinPA » Fri Jan 05, 2018 4:59 pm

I'm in this district. Saccone for a while was my state rep. He is bat shit crazy. I was really happy to see Murphy gone. I would be even more unhappy with Saccone. I don't think anyone even ran against Murphy for a while.



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Re: Pennsylvania 18th CD; Special Election, March 13, 2018

#4

Post by Tiredretiredlawyer » Fri Jan 05, 2018 5:02 pm

Oh, fun! Another election to watch!


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Re: Pennsylvania 18th CD; Special Election, March 13, 2018

#5

Post by Addie » Fri Jan 12, 2018 8:55 am

Politico
Trump races to head off another special election debacle

The White House is scrambling to avoid another special election disaster, this time in a Pennsylvania congressional district in the heart of Trump country.

After a humiliating loss in the Alabama Senate race last month, the administration is drawing up ambitious plans that will kick off next Thursday when Trump travels to the conservative district to appear with Republican candidate Rick Saccone. Vice President Mike Pence and an assortment of Cabinet officials are also expected to make trips; Pence may go twice ahead of the March 13 special election, two administration officials said.

The White House has taken an especially keen interest in the race: Members of Trump's political affairs office met with Saccone this week. And during a Tuesday conference call between the Republican national party committees and the Saccone campaign, White House political director Bill Stepien expressed displeasure with the progress the candidate was making on fundraising. Stepien said Saccone wasn’t raising enough money and asked for an update on the campaign’s progress in the days to come.

Trump’s visit to the district next week will take him to a manufacturing plant outside Pittsburgh. The president plans to use the ostensibly official trip to promote the recently passed tax reform plan.

It is unusual for a White House to expend so much political capital on a single House race, particularly in what's typically seen as a safe Republican district. But the involvement underscores the high stakes confronting the administration as it approaches a midterm election in which the party’s hold on the House majority is in grave danger. A loss in the working class Pennsylvania district, which the president won by 20 percentage points, would show that few GOP seats are safe.


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Re: Pennsylvania 18th CD; Special Election, March 13, 2018

#6

Post by RTH10260 » Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:27 am

Addie wrote:
Fri Jan 12, 2018 8:55 am
Politico
Trump races to head off another special election debacle

The White House is scrambling to avoid another special election disaster, this time in a Pennsylvania congressional district in the heart of Trump country.

:snippity:
Do the Democrats have a potential candidate that is willing to challenge the guy and get the Republicans really sweating?



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Re: Pennsylvania 18th CD; Special Election, March 13, 2018

#7

Post by NotaPerson » Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:36 am

RTH10260 wrote:
Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:27 am
Do the Democrats have a potential candidate that is willing to challenge the guy and get the Republicans really sweating?
Conor Lamb, a charismatic guy who is a former Marine. :)

https://www.thedailybeast.com/is-this-m ... doug-jones


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Re: Pennsylvania 18th CD; Special Election, March 13, 2018

#8

Post by Addie » Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:00 am

The Dems have an excellent candidate in Conor Lamb. The state is gerrymandered in favor of the Repubs, though, and it's a conservative district, so it won't be an easy ride. But the district has a long history of labor union voters. This is tricky, because the district has more registered Dems, for that reason, but those registered Dems form the exact demographic who were lost by the Democratic Party in the 1990s and actually vote mostly Republican. The party's challenge is to bring them back home.
RTH10260 wrote:
Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:27 am
Addie wrote:
Fri Jan 12, 2018 8:55 am
Politico
Do the Democrats have a potential candidate that is willing to challenge the guy and get the Republicans really sweating?


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Re: Pennsylvania 18th CD; Special Election, March 13, 2018

#9

Post by Sterngard Friegen » Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:50 am

R+11

It will be a bellwether for the Dems. If they swing it, that means a 50+ seat swing in the House.



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Re: Pennsylvania 18th CD; Special Election, March 13, 2018

#10

Post by RVInit » Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:08 am

Sterngard Friegen wrote:
Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:50 am
R+11

It will be a bellwether for the Dems. If they swing it, that means a 50+ seat swing in the House.
:pray: :pray: :pray: :prettyplease:


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Re: Pennsylvania 18th CD; Special Election, March 13, 2018

#11

Post by Orlylicious » Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:09 am

Love Conor, he's a very good match for the district, President Shithole should be worried.
Democrats pick former federal prosecutor for special Pa. congressional election
Updated Nov 19; Posted Nov 19
By The Washington Post

WASHINGTON, Pa. - Conor Lamb, a 33-year old Marine veteran and assistant U.S. attorney, won the backing of local Democrats here in a special election to replace a Republican who resigned in disgrace over a sex scandal.

"There will be no doubt who represents the families of this district," Lamb said after securing the Democratic Party's nomination on the second ballot of a crowded party convention. "It's going to be us."

Lamb, a member of a prominent Allegheny County political family making his first bid for office, won the nomination over six rivals at a Sunday party convention. One week earlier, Republicans picked state legislator Rick Saccone as their nominee in the March 13 election, which was called after Rep. Tim Murphy, R, admitted to having an affair with a woman half his age and resigned.

Democrats, once dominant in southwest Pennsylvania, spotted a rare opening. The 18th Congressional District, which stretches from the Ohio border past Pittsburgh's conservative suburbs, was gerrymandered in 2011 to re-elect the once-popular Murphy. In 2016, no Democrat bothered to challenge him, and Hillary Clinton won just 38.5 percent of the district's vote.

The convention that picked Lamb gathered 554 Democratic Party committee members in this small city's high school gym. Lamb won with 319 votes, defeating, among others, a conservative commissioner of increasingly red Westmoreland County, a longtime Navy veteran and Veterans Affairs official, and a former teachers' union president.
And he's cute!

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Re: Pennsylvania 18th CD; Special Election, March 13, 2018

#12

Post by AndyinPA » Tue Jan 16, 2018 8:08 pm

45 will be here Thursday afternoon, campaigning for Saccone. I hope he helps him the way he helped Moore.



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Re: Pennsylvania 18th CD; Special Election, March 13, 2018

#13

Post by Addie » Thu Jan 18, 2018 1:00 pm

:dazed:

The Hill
White House denies Trump's Pennsylvania trip is for Saccone campaign

The White House denied that President Trump's Thursday trip to Pennsylvania is for political purposes, hours after Trump tweeted that he's headed to the state "in order to" support the GOP candidate running in a special election there.

Press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders issued a Thursday morning statement pushing back at questions about the nature of the trip that were sparked by the president's tweet.

"The president is enthusiastic about today's trip to Pittsburgh, Penn., to discuss the incredible successes his tax plan is already achieving for the American people," she said.

"While the President has made clear his support for Republican candidates throughout the country, including in Pennsylvania, the purpose of today's visit is to promote the President's successful agenda especially on taxes," the statement said.


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Re: Pennsylvania 18th CD; Special Election, March 13, 2018

#14

Post by Mikedunford » Thu Jan 18, 2018 1:07 pm

Likely translation:

The taxpayers, and not the RNC or Trump 2020 Campaign, will be footing 100% of the bill for this one.


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Re: Pennsylvania 18th CD; Special Election, March 13, 2018

#15

Post by Sterngard Friegen » Thu Jan 18, 2018 1:09 pm

If it's an official visit I think we pay for it. If it's a campaign visit the campaign pays for it. So President* Trump is just spending our money wisely.



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Re: Pennsylvania 18th CD; Special Election, March 13, 2018

#16

Post by AndyinPA » Thu Jan 18, 2018 2:36 pm

Addie wrote:
Thu Jan 18, 2018 1:00 pm
:dazed:

The Hill
White House denies Trump's Pennsylvania trip is for Saccone campaign

The White House denied that President Trump's Thursday trip to Pennsylvania is for political purposes, hours after Trump tweeted that he's headed to the state "in order to" support the GOP candidate running in a special election there.

Press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders issued a Thursday morning statement pushing back at questions about the nature of the trip that were sparked by the president's tweet.

"The president is enthusiastic about today's trip to Pittsburgh, Penn., to discuss the incredible successes his tax plan is already achieving for the American people," she said.

"While the President has made clear his support for Republican candidates throughout the country, including in Pennsylvania, the purpose of today's visit is to promote the President's successful agenda especially on taxes," the statement said.
Sorry, but pet peeve. It is Pittsburgh PA, not Pittsburgh, Penn. In this state we usually even call it P-A, not Pennsylvania. I think we're the only state where people do that. :)

And the standardized use of two initials for states have been in effect for somewhere around 50 years, maybe longer. Where has she been?

I guess I'll watch the local news this afternoon to see what they are saying about his visit.



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Re: Pennsylvania 18th CD; Special Election, March 13, 2018

#17

Post by AndyinPA » Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:05 am

Good ad.




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Re: Pennsylvania 18th CD; Special Election, March 13, 2018

#18

Post by kate520 » Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:06 pm

Andy, he’s just grandstanding again, reminding us he “went to Wharton”, which, dinosaur that he is, was still in Penn., not PA.


ETA for mrbrolin: six, count ‘em, 6 commas, in a much shorter sentence. :blink:


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Re: Pennsylvania 18th CD; Special Election, March 13, 2018

#19

Post by RTH10260 » Fri Jan 19, 2018 4:37 pm

kate520 wrote:
Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:06 pm
Andy, he’s just grandstanding again, reminding us he “went to Wharton”, which, dinosaur that he is, was still in Penn., not PA.


ETA for mrbrolin: six, count ‘em, 6 commas, in a much shorter sentence. :blink:
PM. ask Orly Taitz for her surplus commas, she is not filing law suits no longer :lol:



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Re: Pennsylvania 18th CD; Special Election, March 13, 2018

#20

Post by Sam the Centipede » Sat Jan 20, 2018 3:58 am

RTH10260 wrote:
Fri Jan 19, 2018 4:37 pm
kate520 wrote:
Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:06 pm
Andy, he’s just grandstanding again, reminding us he “went to Wharton”, which, dinosaur that he is, was still in Penn., not PA.


ETA for mrbrolin: six, count ‘em, 6 commas, in a much shorter sentence. :blink:
PM. ask Orly Taitz for her surplus commas, she is not filing law suits no longer :lol:
Not ask, Orly doesn't know that word. Demand those commas!



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Re: Pennsylvania 18th CD; Special Election, March 13, 2018

#21

Post by NotaPerson » Wed Jan 24, 2018 5:20 pm

Not sure why this poll conducted last week isn't getting much press. At first glance, the methodology appears sound. A rather small sample though, so the margin of error is 5%.

As you may know, in your Congressional District there is a special election on March
13th to fill the vacant seat of former Rep. Tim Murphy. If the election was held today in
Pennsylvania’s 18th District, would you vote for Conor Lamb the Democrat or Rick
Saccone the Republican?


Conor Lamb ............................. 38%
Rick Saccone ............................ 41
(VOL) Undecided ....................... 21

http://www.dfmresearch.com/uploads/PA-1 ... Report.pdf

Makes me think my donation to Mr. Lamb has at least a small chance of paying off. :)


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Re: Pennsylvania 18th CD; Special Election, March 13, 2018

#22

Post by AndyinPA » Wed Jan 24, 2018 5:51 pm

He would be my rep. I'm planning to donate. Saccone is a disaster.

Those are pretty good numbers for Lamb at this point. I did read that the republicans are putting a lot of money behind Saccone.



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Re: Pennsylvania 18th CD; Special Election, March 13, 2018

#23

Post by AndyinPA » Fri Jan 26, 2018 4:41 pm

I don't watch much local news, but I just caught a republican ad against Connor Lamb. Of course, it ties him to Pelosi's liberal agenda. :notlistening:



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Re: Pennsylvania 18th CD; Special Election, March 13, 2018

#24

Post by Addie » Fri Jan 26, 2018 8:43 pm

The Hill
Pence to appear at fundraiser for Pennsylvania GOP candidate

Vice President Mike Pence is set to appear at a fundraiser for GOP congressional hopeful Rick Saccone in Pennsylvania next week.

According to an invitation for the event posted on Twitter by CNN White House producer Elizabeth Landers, the fundraiser will cost attendees at least $5,400.

Those wanting to take part in a meet and greet with Pence will have to part with $10,000.

The stop at the fundraiser for Saccone is part of a larger effort by Pence to boost Republicans across the country ahead of the midterm elections, according to a Politico report published earlier this month.

Pence's appearance at the fundraiser will come roughly two weeks after President Trump traveled to Pennsylvania.


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Re: Pennsylvania 18th CD; Special Election, March 13, 2018

#25

Post by Addie » Sat Jan 27, 2018 8:49 am

Politico
Testing Trump, national cash floods another special election

A Western Pennsylvania House seat that backed President Donald Trump by 20 points became the latest special-election battleground this week.

After months of shadow-boxing in the otherwise solidly Republican district, investments this week by both the DCCC and the NRCC signal the race between Democrat Conor Lamb and Republican Rick Saccone is more competitive than recent history would suggest.

The NRCC has reserved more than $1 million on ads on broadcast and cable TV stations to boost Saccone in the race to replace former Rep. Tim Murphy (R-Pa.). Murphy resigned last October, after reports surfaced that the anti-abortion lawmaker had an extramarital affair and allegedly encouraged his lover to terminate a pregnancy. The DCCC's investment is smaller, but both committees are signaling that they would make major investments if the race is close between now and the March 13 election. ...

Democrats stayed out of the fray until this week, when the DCCC reserved $236,000 on TV ads for just a two-week flight, beginning next Tuesday.

The race in Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District is the seventh House special election since 2017 — Republicans held five seats vacated by GOP members, while Democrats retained their only open seat — but just the third in which the DCCC has actively competed. The party spent more than $5 million to help boost Democrat Jon Ossoff's unsuccessful campaign in last June's special election for a suburban Atlanta House seat and made a more modest, $380,000 investment in an at-large Montana seat. GOP candidates retained those seats by narrow margins.


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