Trump effect - Energized Dems

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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#76

Post by RoadScholar » Mon Feb 19, 2018 4:16 pm

Foggy wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:27 am
I don't think Dems are ready to party. If anything gets much worse, I expect literally millions to rise up in protest.

Having said that, check out this text one of my friends posted on Facebook:
Since 25th November 2017, NC voter rolls added:
~3100 republicans
~1500 democrats
~17000 unaffiliated
Something tells me a lot of those 17000 Unaffiliated are the disgusted Republicans who nonetheless can't bring themselves to register Democrat.

Edit: Assuming they're not Russians, that is. :o


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#77

Post by Foggy » Mon Feb 19, 2018 6:25 pm

In the process, the confusion of left-wing groups that have been leading the opposition to Mr Trump, including Emily’s List and Indivisible, a grass-roots group which introduced many of the newbie candidates to activism, has started to coalesce.
Whoa, the confusion has started to coalesce, whatever the hell that means. :confused:


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#78

Post by Addie » Mon Feb 26, 2018 10:05 am

Brookings Institution
Is a wave rolling in for House Democrats? Potentially competitive districts and candidates build strength

This is the third of a series on the 2018 midterm congressional elections. In the first, we noted the historically unprecedented number of Democratic House challengers who had filed early reports with the Federal Election Commission (FEC), along with the paucity of Republican challengers. The second report noted the unprecedented number of incumbents who were facing challengers with at least $50,000.

Because parties need strong candidates as well as a favorable national outlook to gain large numbers of seats, and because strong candidates are more likely to emerge when conditions seem “ripe” for them, we were led to speculate that the early candidate pool was one sign that 2018 could become a “wave” election with Democrats gaining a large number of seats. Since those early reports, the Democrats’ advantage in generic poll questions has shrunk from thirteen percentage points to below seven (which is still high historically). In light of the changed polls, we are moved to take a third look at the candidates based on their year-end FEC reports filed on January 31. We will reprise the national numbers in historical context. However, because congressional elections are ultimately decided in local ballots, we will also take a more granular look at the elections by district.


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#79

Post by Sterngard Friegen » Mon Feb 26, 2018 10:14 am

Foggy wrote:
Mon Feb 19, 2018 6:25 pm
In the process, the confusion of left-wing groups that have been leading the opposition to Mr Trump, including Emily’s List and Indivisible, a grass-roots group which introduced many of the newbie candidates to activism, has started to coalesce.
Whoa, the confusion has started to coalesce, whatever the hell that means. :confused:
Yeah, it's awkward, but give the author some license. Think of "confusion" as shorthand for "The confused agglomeration [of left-wing groups] . . ." or something similar.



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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#80

Post by kate520 » Mon Feb 26, 2018 12:49 pm

Oh, gawd, don’t step in the coalescing confusion! It sticks to your shoes.


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#81

Post by Foggy » Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:36 am

I ain't steppin' in no agglomeration, neither. You gotta use a hose to get that stuff offa ya. :nope:


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#82

Post by RoadScholar » Tue Feb 27, 2018 6:21 am

Some days ya just can’t tell the flotsam from the jetsam.


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#83

Post by Addie » Fri Mar 02, 2018 7:46 pm

Dallas Morning News
Texas early voting numbers a wake-up call for GOP as Democrats double their 2014 turnout

AUSTIN — With one day of early voting to go, turnout in the Democratic primary had nearly doubled since the last midterm election in 2014.

According to the Texas secretary of state’s website — which tracks only the 15 counties with the most registered voters — 161,607 people voted in the Democratic primary in 2014 during the first 10 days of early voting. This year, 310,275 people voted in the Democratic primary in the same span — a 92 percent increase. Polls were set to close Friday at 7 p.m.

On the GOP side, 273,293 people had voted in the Republican primary as of Thursday. That’s still an 18 percent increase from 2014, when 231,530 voted in the Republican primary during the first 10 days of early voting.

Democrats may hold a 36,982 vote lead, but that doesn’t mean all of those voters are Democrats. Since Texas has semi-open primaries, voters can choose which party’s primary to vote in. (There is a caveat to choosing: In a runoff, voters must stick with the same party.)


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#84

Post by Addie » Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:52 pm

Associated Press
Pennsylvania Democrats See Surge of Legislative Candidates

HARRISBURG, Pa. (AP) — Democrats hoping to claw their way out of a deep minority in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives got some good news this week when their candidates filed petitions to get on the ballot in 180 of the chamber's 203 districts.

The flood-the-zone strategy, inspired in part by a surprising showing for their party in Virginia in November, is designed to put more of the chamber in play and ramp up pressure on Republicans to defend their 121-82 majority.

Some of those candidates can expect legal challenges to their petitions or their qualifications, but their sheer numbers suggest that Democrats are benefiting from energy and enthusiasm that could change the Legislature's balance of power.

"Obviously, 2016 was not exactly what we were hoping for and we had a very intentional strategy to challenge Republicans in every district," said Nathan Davidson, director of the House Democratic Campaign Committee. "We didn't quite get there, but it was very intentional to be actively recruiting in every place."

The 180 districts would be the most for Democrats since at least 2000. That beat 2006, when Democrats ran in 175 districts. That year, Democrats rode a national wave to control of Congress, while at home, a populist furor over lawmakers' self-granted pay raise fueled the defeat of 24 incumbents and briefly put Democrats in the majority.


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#85

Post by Suranis » Tue Mar 13, 2018 10:17 am

Dont worry Republicans.... the Berniebros are coming to save you!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... b3bb212610
Washington Post
Opinion | The Bernie Bros and sisters are coming to Republicans’rescue
Their “litmus test” would seriously diminish Democrats’ hopes of retaking the House.
Can I call them asshole idiots yet?


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#86

Post by RVInit » Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:22 pm

Suranis wrote:
Tue Mar 13, 2018 10:17 am
Dont worry Republicans.... the Berniebros are coming to save you!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... b3bb212610
Washington Post
Opinion | The Bernie Bros and sisters are coming to Republicans’rescue
Their “litmus test” would seriously diminish Democrats’ hopes of retaking the House.
Can I call them asshole idiots yet?
:like:


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#87

Post by Addie » Sun Mar 18, 2018 1:12 pm

Iowa Starting Line
IOWA DEMOCRATS FILL 94% OF STATE LEGISLATIVE RACES

If Democrats needed one more sign of just how energized their voters are for the 2018 election, they got it on Friday evening at the end of candidate filings for Iowa state offices. Democratic candidates have stepped up to compete in 94% of all state legislative races, a major coup for the party who sees a potential blue wave year coming in November. They also have candidates in every statewide race, while Republicans left Democratic Attorney General Tom Miller and State Treasurer Mike Fitzgerald without opponents.

It also improves significantly on past years’ performances, where many Republican incumbents got left uncontested – mostly in deep red seats, but also in some borderline competitive ones. ...

On the Republican side, things do not look as good. They filled only 20 of 25 senate districts and 75 of 100 house districts. Overall, that’s 76% coverage compared to Democrats’ 94%.

Republicans have left over half of incumbent House Democrats without an opponent, giving those representatives free time to raise money and/or go knock doors in swing districts. And Republicans also have 13 open seats due to retirements, with 20% of their members deciding to call it a day this year (12 are retiring – there’s 13 technically open seats since Representative Chris Hagenow is moving west to an open seat in Dallas County).


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#88

Post by Addie » Fri Apr 06, 2018 3:15 pm

Cook Political Report
April House Overview: Ratings Changes in 13 Districts ...

The bad news for Republicans, of course, is that Trump's approval rating is still 40 percent and that they still trail Democrats on the generic ballot by eight points. That's enough to offset the GOP's edge from favorably drawn districts and endanger their 23-seat majority (by our estimate, Democrats would need to win seven to eight percent more votes for House to win 218 of 435 seats).

Moreover, in a reversal from the 2014 midterms, Democrats enjoy a wide voter enthusiasm gap. According to a new CNN/SSRS survey, 51 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaners said they were "extremely" or "very" enthusiastic about voting in November compared to 36 percent of Republicans/GOP leaners. Young voters, Trump's weakest age segment, also express far more interest in casting ballots than they did four years ago. ...

If Democrats pick up at least eight Republican open seats (and today, eight of the 36 are leaning their way), they'll already be a third of the way to the 23 they need for a majority. Beyond those, there are 18 Republican incumbents in the Toss Up column and another 20 in the Lean Republican column —- including five in California, three in Texas and three in Virginia. Private partisan polling continues to show most GOP incumbents in much weaker positions than last cycle — even in districts Trump won. ...

Primaries have already proven difficult for Democrats to control: some of their most highly touted, widely endorsed candidates are falling flat with actual primary voters. Kelly Mazeski (IL-06), Alex Triantaphyllis (TX-07), Jay Hulings (TX-23) and Ed Meier (TX-32) all raised more money than their opponents but lost their primaries to candidates with stronger grassroots appeal. And only two of 50 states have held their primaries so far, guaranteeing more surprises to come.
CA-21: Valadao (R)
Likely R to Lean R

IA-02: Loebsack (D)
Likely D to Solid D

NV-03: OPEN (Rosen) (D)
Toss Up to Lean D

NV-04: OPEN (Kihuen) (D)
Lean D to Likely D

NJ-03: Tom MacArthur (R)
Likely R to Lean R

NJ-05: Josh Gottheimer (D)
Lean D to Likely D

NY-18: Sean Patrick Maloney (D)
Likely D to Solid D

NC-09: Robert Pittenger (R)
Likely R to Lean R

OH-10: Mike Turner (R)
Solid R to Likely R

WA-03: Jaime Herrera Beutler (R)
Solid R to Likely R

WA-05: Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R)
Likely R to Lean R

WI-07: Sean Duffy (R)
Solid R to Likely R

WV-03: OPEN (Jenkins) (R)
Solid R to Likely R


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#89

Post by Tiredretiredlawyer » Wed Apr 11, 2018 2:05 pm

http://www.tampabay.com/florida-politic ... -retiring/
Republican Congressman Dennis Ross is retiring

Florida Congressman Dennis Ross told his staff this morning he is retiring, becoming the latest in a string of Republican departures.

He dismissed the idea retirement had anything to do with a possible Democratic wave — "Not at all." — though the open seat will now become a target, while setting off a scramble among Republican hopefuls, who remain the favorite.

"We have been successful doing strong constituent outreach, doing town halls. The demographics are good in this district. I'm going to focus on having a conservative, pro-business candidate to succeed me and I will work for that person. I believe we'll keep the district strongly Republican."


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#90

Post by Addie » Fri May 04, 2018 5:45 pm

NJ Globe
Nearly 70,000 NJ voters register Democratic since Trump election

Democrats continue to outpace Republicans in voter registration in New Jersey, gaining 4,843 new voters in April 2018 and 69,951 since the November 2016 general election. The GOP picked up 1,490 voters last month and 37,686 since Donald Trump was elected president.

The gap grows even wider in some of the politically competitive congressional districts, which could skew actual comparisons of election results since 2016:

* District 11, where 12-term Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-Harding) is retiring, Democrats signed up 443 new members in April and 6,860 since 2016; Republicans gained 142 new members in April and 2,628 since 2016.

* District 7, where Rep. Leonard Lance (R-Clinton) is seeking re-election to a sixth term, 434 new Democrats were added in April and just 62 new Republicans; since 2016, it’s 8,026 more Democrats and 2,229 more Republicans.

* District 2, where 12-term Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R-Ventnor) is retiring, April netted 215 new Democrats and 185 new Republicans. Since the Trump election, the district has picked up 5,411 Democrats and 3,950 Republicans.

* District 5, where freshman Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wyckoff) is going for a second term, April brought in 220 new Democrats and 50 new Republicans. In total since Gottheimer beat seven-term Republican Scott Garrett two years ago, the district had added 6,866 new Democrats and 2,911 new Republicans.


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#91

Post by Sunrise » Fri May 04, 2018 6:26 pm

:thumbs: Just gets betterer and betterer!


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#92

Post by Addie » Tue May 29, 2018 5:52 pm

Axios
"Medicare for All" is a winner in Democratic primaries ...

Where single payer is winning:
In Nebraska's 2nd district, Kara Eastman, who supports "Medicare for all," beat a former congressman backed by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Two "Medicare for all" backers, Scott Wallace and Susan Wild, won House primaries in Pennsylvania.

Gina Ortiz Jones, competing to unseat GOP Rep. Will Hurd in Texas's 23rd district, "supports a single payer system," per her campaign website.

Sean Casten, competing for Rep. Peter Roskam's seat in Illinois's 6th district, has an extremely detailed step-by-step health care plan that would "provide a path to Medicare for all, but only provided that Americans – at their discretion – chose to buy into that option."

Amy McGrath prevailed in Kentucky's 6th district, against a DCCC-backed opponent. Although she says "currently proposed single-payer legislation would represent such a sweeping overhaul that it would put our healthcare system into massive upheaval," she supports allowing people older than 55 to buy into Medicare and creating a public insurance option.
The big picture: Single-payer supporters are still a minority within the Democratic Party, but they've pulled off some successes so far and gained more ground than they've ever had before.


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#93

Post by Danraft » Tue May 29, 2018 6:06 pm

:-D
I read that as "Medicare for AI"..
Dammit... They already have better virus protection than we do!!


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#94

Post by TollandRCR » Tue May 29, 2018 6:29 pm

I am disturbed that the DCCC seems to be selecting candidates who are not-so-Democratic Democrats. To win in 2018 and 2020, we must not be pale copies of Republicans.


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#95

Post by Sterngard Friegen » Tue May 29, 2018 7:29 pm

TollandRCR wrote:
Tue May 29, 2018 6:29 pm
I am disturbed that the DCCC seems to be selecting candidates who are not-so-Democratic Democrats. To win in 2018 and 2020, we must not be pale copies of Republicans.
:like:



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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#96

Post by Addie » Fri Jun 08, 2018 2:38 pm

Cook Political Report: House Ratings Changes: Democrats Breathe a California-Sized Sigh of Relief ...

Rating Changes
CA-21: Valadao | Lean R to Likely R
CA-49: OPEN (Issa) | Toss Up to Lean D
CA-50: Hunter | Likely R to Solid R
NJ-02: OPEN (LoBiondo) | Lean D to Likely D
NJ-11: OPEN (Frelinghuysen) | Toss Up to Lean D


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#97

Post by Addie » Mon Jul 23, 2018 3:09 pm

WaPo - Paul Waldman
Republicans are telling Democrats to move right. It’s dreadful advice. ...

What the concern trolls are advocating is that Democrats go back to being afraid of their own shadows the way they were for so long, convincing themselves that the American public is extremely conservative and if they don’t become more like Republicans then they have no hope of winning. It’s a belief shared by pretty much every losing Democratic presidential candidate for the past few decades; all of them radiated a sense of insecurity, apologizing for their beliefs and those of their party. It’s something Republicans never do.

That’s not to say there aren’t some Republicans out there who can be persuaded to vote for a Democrat for Congress this year or a Democratic presidential candidate in 2020. But they aren’t going to be won over by candidates who say, “I’m kinda not too liberal, so how about it?” They want candidates who speak to their concerns and who aren’t ashamed of their own views — views, by the way, that are far more popular than moderate Democrats and Republicans would like to admit. We can have a debate about the practical challenges of implementing “Medicare for all,” for instance, but the idea is hugely appealing, even to many Republicans.

Aren’t there places where “He’s a Nancy Pelosi Democrat!” can still be a potent attack? Maybe — even if the idea that screaming about Pelosi changes anyone’s mind has long been asserted but never demonstrated. But if you think conservatives dislike Pelosi because they’ve carefully assessed her issue positions and decided that she’s more liberal than they are, you don’t know much about how politics works. For those who eagerly imbibe regular diatribes about her from Rush Limbaugh or Sean Hannity, Pelosi is a symbol, not an ideology. She represents women who tell men what to do and snooty coastal elites, not a collection of positions on issues.

Now let’s address the question of mobilization. Right now, the Democratic Party is benefiting from a huge wave of enthusiasm, especially from liberals, many of them young people who are tired of the timid politics that has characterized the party for so long. Democrats’ biggest problem in midterm elections is always that the Republican base — older, wealthier, whiter — tends to turn out at higher rates than the Democratic base in off years. If Democrats are going to win this year, they have to ride that new energy. And nothing would puncture it quicker than the party making a collective decision that what it really needs is the more tentative, apologetic strategy that has failed so often in the past.


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#98

Post by Suranis » Tue Jul 24, 2018 1:44 am



Irony can be pretty ironic sometimes.

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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#99

Post by TollandRCR » Tue Jul 24, 2018 1:53 am

Suranis, that list of suggestions looks very good, but on my device the right side is chopped off.


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#100

Post by MN-Skeptic » Tue Jul 24, 2018 1:59 am

TollandRCR wrote:
Tue Jul 24, 2018 1:53 am
Suranis, that list of suggestions looks very good, but on my device the right side is chopped off.
On my iPad the right side is chopped off, but I can put my finger in the graphic and move it left and right in order to view all the text.


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