https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/ ... ave-244952After Democrats’ sweeping victories last week, Public Opinion Strategies, a Republican polling firm, wrote a pointed memo — titled “Surviving the 2018 Election” — addressing Republican incumbents. The firm counseled incumbents to start their reelection campaigns earlier than planned, to do early message testing, and to begin planning their voter turnout operation now, as opposed to next fall.
The report is really interesting and at http://pos.org/surviving-the-2018-election/
http://pos.org/surviving-the-2018-election/M E M O R A N D U M
TO: INTERESTED PARTIES
FROM: THE POLITICAL TEAM
RE: SURVIVING THE 2018 ELECTION
DATE: NOVEMBER 9, 2017
The 2018 election will be the first mid-term election with a Republican in the White House since 2006, which was a grim year for Republican candidates. That year, Republicans lost seats long presumed to be theirs. On the same day, however, other Republicans who had been losing at some point in October came from behind to win, including several in Democratic-leaning seats. The goal of this memo is to lay out steps to take to strengthen your odds of winning.
How to Approach 2018
1. The last three mid-terms have been difficult for the party in control of the White House. Expect no different this time. If the mid-term is not difficult (unlikely), then the worst thing is you strengthened your political operation ahead of a contentious 2020!
In the 2006 mid-terms, when George W. Bush had a 39% approval rating, Republicans had a net loss of six gubernatorial seats, six U.S. Senate seats, 30 House seats, and 332 state legislative seats.
6. Turnout is going to be crucial because Democrats are going to flood the polls.
Remember the good old days of 2010 and 2014 when Republicans were motivated to send a message to Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, and Harry Reid? Well, the shoe is on the other foot now. Virginia shows how motivated Democrats are. In the 2013 gubernatorial race, Democrats had a five point composition of the electorate advantage on party ID. In 2016, it grew to seven points. This year, the exit polls show it at eleven points. Thus, in one four year span, Democratic advantage on party more than doubled.
The number of votes cast in the 2017 Virginia Governor’s race was 354,817 higher than in 2013. Democrats cast approximately 235,600 more than in 2013, while Republicans cast approximately 61,400 more than in 2013 – a net 174,000 turnout growth advantage for Democrats. (Independents cast approximately 31,750 more than they did in 2013).
Gillespie actually won Independents by three points, but to overcome the turnout differential between Democrats and GOPers, he would have had to win 66% of Independents. He also received more votes than the last two winners in Virginia – Bob McDonnell and Terry McAuliffe, which really underscores the Democratic turnout boost.
Do not wait till Labor Day to start planning your turnout operation – start planning it now. The wind is at the back of the Democrats, making it easier to turn their highly motivated voters out. Turnout is going to be more difficult than it was in 2010, 2014, and 2016 for us.