Trump effect - Energized Dems

[Orlylicious]

After Democrats’ sweeping victories last week, Public Opinion Strategies, a Republican polling firm, wrote a pointed memo — titled “Surviving the 2018 Election” — addressing Republican incumbents. The firm counseled incumbents to start their reelection campaigns earlier than planned, to do early message testing, and to begin planning their voter turnout operation now, as opposed to next fall.

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/ ... ave-244952

The report is really interesting and at http://pos.org/surviving-the-2018-election/

M E M O R A N D U M

TO: INTERESTED PARTIES
FROM: THE POLITICAL TEAM
RE: SURVIVING THE 2018 ELECTION
DATE: NOVEMBER 9, 2017

Introduction

The 2018 election will be the first mid-term election with a Republican in the White House since 2006, which was a grim year for Republican candidates. That year, Republicans lost seats long presumed to be theirs. On the same day, however, other Republicans who had been losing at some point in October came from behind to win, including several in Democratic-leaning seats. The goal of this memo is to lay out steps to take to strengthen your odds of winning.

How to Approach 2018

1. The last three mid-terms have been difficult for the party in control of the White House. Expect no different this time. If the mid-term is not difficult (unlikely), then the worst thing is you strengthened your political operation ahead of a contentious 2020!

In the 2006 mid-terms, when George W. Bush had a 39% approval rating, Republicans had a net loss of six gubernatorial seats, six U.S. Senate seats, 30 House seats, and 332 state legislative seats.
***

6. Turnout is going to be crucial because Democrats are going to flood the polls.

Remember the good old days of 2010 and 2014 when Republicans were motivated to send a message to Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, and Harry Reid? Well, the shoe is on the other foot now. Virginia shows how motivated Democrats are. In the 2013 gubernatorial race, Democrats had a five point composition of the electorate advantage on party ID. In 2016, it grew to seven points. This year, the exit polls show it at eleven points. Thus, in one four year span, Democratic advantage on party more than doubled.

The number of votes cast in the 2017 Virginia Governor’s race was 354,817 higher than in 2013. Democrats cast approximately 235,600 more than in 2013, while Republicans cast approximately 61,400 more than in 2013 – a net 174,000 turnout growth advantage for Democrats. (Independents cast approximately 31,750 more than they did in 2013).

Gillespie actually won Independents by three points, but to overcome the turnout differential between Democrats and GOPers, he would have had to win 66% of Independents. He also received more votes than the last two winners in Virginia – Bob McDonnell and Terry McAuliffe, which really underscores the Democratic turnout boost.

Do not wait till Labor Day to start planning your turnout operation – start planning it now. The wind is at the back of the Democrats, making it easier to turn their highly motivated voters out. Turnout is going to be more difficult than it was in 2010, 2014, and 2016 for us.

http://pos.org/surviving-the-2018-election/

[Addie]

New Republic: What Virginia Taught Democrats About Winning Back the States

Last week's election was unique in some ways but provided a blueprint for success in next year's midterms.

[Addie]

WNYC - audio

Howard Dean: It's Time for The Democratic Old Guard to Move Over

Are you under 35? You are the future of the Democratic Party.

That’s according to Howard Dean, the former chairman of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) from 2005 to 2009, a six-term governor of Vermont, and a former presidential candidate.

Dean says that it’s time for his generation of the party to move over, and he points to the Virginia election results earlier in the month as proof that the reforms made in the party since the 2016 election are already succeeding.

“The stats in Virginia were unbelievable — between the ages of 18 and 30, 69 percent of people voted Democratic,” he says. “That’s a number I — you just don’t see that number among age group demographics. I think it was a very big deal for the Democrats.”

To win during the 2018 midterms and beyond, recruiting and turning out millennial voters needs be the Democratic Party’s primary goal, Dean argues. Additionally, he believes Democrats Democrats need to open up primaries to independent voters, and get rid of the caucuses.

“Let’s democratize the party, not as part of the Hillary vs. Bernie fight, which I wish these people would shut up about because we have to look towards 2020 and 2018 and not backwards, but let’s really democratize the party,” he says.

[RVInit]

WNYC - audio

Howard Dean: It's Time for The Democratic Old Guard to Move Over

Are you under 35? You are the future of the Democratic Party.

That’s according to Howard Dean, the former chairman of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) from 2005 to 2009, a six-term governor of Vermont, and a former presidential candidate.

Dean says that it’s time for his generation of the party to move over, and he points to the Virginia election results earlier in the month as proof that the reforms made in the party since the 2016 election are already succeeding.

“The stats in Virginia were unbelievable — between the ages of 18 and 30, 69 percent of people voted Democratic,” he says. “That’s a number I — you just don’t see that number among age group demographics. I think it was a very big deal for the Democrats.”

To win during the 2018 midterms and beyond, recruiting and turning out millennial voters needs be the Democratic Party’s primary goal, Dean argues. Additionally, he believes Democrats Democrats need to open up primaries to independent voters, and get rid of the caucuses.

“Let’s democratize the party, not as part of the Hillary vs. Bernie fight, which I wish these people would shut up about because we have to look towards 2020 and 2018 and not backwards, but let’s really democratize the party,” he says.

[Addie]

The Hill

Dems plan ambitious campaign for red-state governorships

The man who will lead Democratic efforts to win back governorships in key states next year says his party is poised to capitalize on a political environment so favorable it will make the Republican wave of 1994 look small.

And he would know: That year, then-Rep. Jay Inslee (Wash.) was one of the victims of the Republican wave, losing his district to a GOP foe.

Now, Inslee is serving his second term as Washington's governor. He formally takes charge of the Democratic Governors Association on Monday, about a month after Democrats won the New Jersey governor's race and kept control in Virginia, where Gov.-elect Ralph Northam (D) won by a surprisingly large margin.

Inslee said Northam benefitted from a deeply unpopular Republican president, something Democrats across the country will exploit next year.

"This is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity this year because of the terrible price that the Trump effect will have on Republican candidates, like we saw in Virginia," Inslee said in an interview Friday. "There is just no escaping that shadow, that cloud. I experienced it myself in 1994."

"When these waves break, there's just no safe harbor," he said.

[fierceredpanda]

I want to jump into this thread to vent for a moment and voice a word of caution. I'm doing some political work on the side in addition to my day job as a Courtroom Monkey^TM, and fundraising is tough. Lots of donors still seem demoralized from last year, and won't give to candidates. The fact that Jon Ossoff's campaign gobbled up $30 million and accomplished sweet fuck-all with it probably didn't help. But if any of you are in a position to financially support candidates directly, I would strongly encourage you to do so. Even small amounts can really add up. Every time someone responds on the phone with "I just don't see the point" or "I don't know if I want to give anymore," I really, really want to tell them that "the Kochs and Mercers thank you for your decision to sit things out." It's a terrible reality that money determines so much of what happens in our political process, but until that reality changes, those of us who want to affect change need to saddle up and help our side compete. End of speech.

Full disclosure: To avoid the appearance of self-interest, I am not going to reveal here the name of the candidate or candidates I am helping out.

[Addie]

McClatchy

Dems warn GOP: We’re prepared for class war

Democrats are ready to embrace a class war — and blame Republicans for starting it.

The GOP’s controversial dual effort to revamp the health care system and tax code has convinced Democrats they should bluntly assail Republicans as the defenders of out-of-touch plutocrats, a message party operatives have already begun to poll-test, include in attacks ads, and use against vulnerable incumbents even before Saturday’s passage of the Senate GOP bill.

And rather than wince at the inevitable retorts that the party is trying to instigate a class war, leading party strategists say they welcome the attack — confident the GOP’s legislative priorities make them a more likely culprit in the public’s mind.

“If Democrats are worried about class war, well, the Republicans started it,” said John Lapp, a veteran Democratic strategist. “And bring it on.”

Quipped one party operative: “If we’re eating the rich, they bit first.”

[Addie]

WaPo: How Democrats are dominating special elections — in one graph

[Addie]

WaPo

The Daily 202: The suburban revolt against Trump continued in Alabama

THE BIG IDEA: The backlash in the suburbs against President Trump is one of the most significant political stories of 2017. If Democrats win the House next year, it will be the main reason.

In Alabama, Sen.-elect Doug Jones (D) flipped or came close on Tuesday in suburban counties that Trump had won around Birmingham and Montgomery.

His victory offers the latest data points for a trendline that stretches back to April, when a special election in Kansas to replace Mike Pompeo — who gave up his House seat to become CIA director — was unexpectedly close because of Democratic strength and high turnout in the Wichita suburbs, specifically Sedgwick County.

In Virginia last month, Chesterfield County — which includes the suburbs around Richmond — backed a Democratic gubernatorial candidate for the first time since 1961. Several GOP state legislators unexpectedly went down in suburban districts that were not thought to be in play. Gov.-elect Ralph Northam (D) won the district held by Rep. Barbara Comstock (R-Va.) in the D.C. suburbs by 13 points. Four years before, Terry McAuliffe got 60 percent in Fairfax County. Northam pulled 68 percent.

The same night, Democrats flipped two county executive races in the New York suburbs of Westchester and Nassau. They also picked up GOP-held state legislative in the suburbs of Seattle, Tulsa and Atlanta.

These shifts alarm Republicans because many of their most vulnerable House incumbents represent suburban districts around places like Minneapolis and Philadelphia. Many college-educated white women who voted for Trump are swinging away, and traditional Democrats are highly motivated while Republicans are fractured.

[pipistrelle]

Sen.-elect Doug Jones (D)

I like that.

[Sterngard Friegen]

Sen.-elect Doug Jones (D-Ala).

[NotaPerson]

I want to jump into this thread to vent for a moment and voice a word of caution. I'm doing some political work on the side in addition to my day job as a Courtroom Monkey^TM, and fundraising is tough. Lots of donors still seem demoralized from last year, and won't give to candidates. The fact that Jon Ossoff's campaign gobbled up $30 million and accomplished sweet fuck-all with it probably didn't help. But if any of you are in a position to financially support candidates directly, I would strongly encourage you to do so. Even small amounts can really add up. Every time someone responds on the phone with "I just don't see the point" or "I don't know if I want to give anymore," I really, really want to tell them that "the Kochs and Mercers thank you for your decision to sit things out." It's a terrible reality that money determines so much of what happens in our political process, but until that reality changes, those of us who want to affect change need to saddle up and help our side compete. End of speech.

You've just inspired me to go ahead and donate to Beto O'Rourke, the Dem running against Ted Cruz in 2018.

Roy Moore today, Ted Cruz next?

http://www.chron.com/news/politics/texa ... 426930.php

It's a long shot, I know. But that's no excuse for not doing anything.

[fierceredpanda]

You've just inspired me to go ahead and donate to Beto O'Rourke, the Dem running against Ted Cruz in 2018.

Roy Moore today, Ted Cruz next?

http://www.chron.com/news/politics/texa ... 426930.php

It's a long shot, I know. But that's no excuse for not doing anything.

[Addie]

Whew, this analysis of the Alabama race had me all

The Guardian: 'A perfect storm': How liberal millennials and African Americans delivered a stunning Alabama result | US news

[Addie]

WaPo

Democrats eye state legislatures in 2018 after stunning gains in Virginia

The nationally watched battle for control of the Virginia House of Delegates is a precursor to a broad Democratic effort to flip statehouses blue in 2018 and boost the party’s power to draw legislative maps for the next decade.

Democrats won at least 15 GOP-held seats in Virginia, part of a backlash to President Trump’s ascension that included a host of new groups devoted to down-ballot races, a quadrupling of small donations to Democratic legislative candidates since the last cycle and the largest gubernatorial-year turnout in two decades.

Now Democrats hope to replicate that success across the country. Seats in 87 of 99 state legislative chambers are on the ballot in 2018. Republicans currently hold 67 of those chambers, while Democrats hold 32.

“We have to be aggressive everywhere,” said David Cohen, co-founder of Forward Majority, a new Democratic super PAC focused on state legislatures. “We can’t accept the conventional wisdom of what’s possible.”

[Orlylicious]

ACLU to storm 2018 midterms
The group is aiming to become the NRA of the left, starting with plans to spend tens of millions in the election.
By EDWARD-ISAAC DOVERE 01/06/2018 07:04 AM EST
“It’s clear that a larger portion of the American public is deeply engaged in politics in a way they’ve never been before,” said executive director Anthony Romero.

The American Civil Liberties Union, rarely an active player in national campaigns, is jumping into the 2018 midterms with plans to spend upward of $25 million promoting ballot initiatives and issues in contested races across the country. Soaring after a banner year — the ACLU raised $93 million online in the 12 months after Donald Trump was elected president, up from $5.5 million the year before, and its membership quadrupled to 1.6 million — the civil rights group is in the midst of a dramatic makeover. The group aims to rival the National Rifle Association as a force on the left and become a hub of the anti-Trump movement.

“It’s clear that a larger portion of the American public is deeply engaged in politics in a way they’ve never been before,” said Executive Director Anthony Romero — and the ACLU aims to be a hub of liberal political activism. Most of the ACLU’s spending in 2018 will be directed at Republicans, though operatives haven’t ruled out indirectly going after Democrats on the wrong side of their issues, too. It will not form a PAC or endorse candidates, moves that would mean losing its 501(c)(4) nonprofit status, instead limiting its activity to promoting issues and initiatives. Among them are voting rights, the travel ban, disability rights, reproductive rights and immigration.
***
The ACLU has already committed to spending $5 million to qualify and propel a ballot initiative in Florida to re-enfranchise up to 1.5 million convicted felons. Romero said if the proposal succeeds in adding that many voters to the rolls ahead of the 2020 election, the effect will be “felt not just in Florida, but across the country, in terms of a very different view of the political map.”

A seven-figure investment in a similar ballot initiative in another state is being finalized, Romero said. And the ACLU has begun to zero in on other races: in Kansas, where conservative Kris Kobach is running for governor; in Wisconsin, to stop Scott Walker from winning another term; and in a slate of races for Republican-held House seats that Democrats are trying to flip. In all, ACLU officials say they expect to get involved in about a dozen races, including for district attorney in California and Texas. [Orly Taitz for DA? ]

Much moar at https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/ ... rms-327115

[Addie]

Mother Jones

These 7 Primary Fights Will Shape the Future of the Democratic Party

With 10 Democrats up for reelection in states Donald Trump won, the party needs a lot to go right if it’s going to take back the Senate this year. But at least one big thing already has: The most vulnerable Democratic incumbents have almost universally avoided any kind of primary challenge. Even as the party lurches left, moderate Democrats in red states—such as Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill, North Dakota Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, and Indiana Sen. Joe Donnelly—are running without opposition from their party’s insurgent wing. In fact, the only Democratic senator to face a high-profile challenge from the left is Dianne Feinstein, in deep-blue California.

But the Senate notwithstanding, 2018 is shaping up to be a big year for Democrats, and a series of high-stakes primary contests this spring and summer will determine what kind of party emerges when the dust settles in November. Many of the debates that have dogged the party over the past few years (and beyond)—the role for pro-life Democrats, the power of big-money donors, and the future of the Bernie Sanders coalition—will be playing out once again in various races across the country. Here’s a quick guide to some primaries to watch:

IL-03: Democrat Dan Lipinski has been a thorn in progressives’ side almost since he inherited the seat from his father, longtime Rep. Bill Lipinski, in 2004. Although the seat, which includes parts of southwest Chicago and the suburbs, is safely Democratic, the younger Lipinski is staunchly anti-abortion, has voted to defund Planned Parenthood, and is a member of the centrist Blue Dog caucus. Activists have taken aim at the incumbent several times over the last decade, with little to show for their efforts. But this year Lipinski will face his toughest primary test—from businesswoman Marie Newman. The reproductive rights advocacy group NARAL, Democracy for America (the progressive organization founded by Howard Dean), and the LGBT rights group Human Rights Campaign are all backing Newman, as is New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand. The March 20 primary will be a major test for activists who want the party to draw a clearer line on reproductive rights.

California Senate: For all the talk about do-nothing moderates, Democrats have mostly left their vulnerable Senate candidates alone. Perhaps that’s because, aside from early defections on Cabinet secretary confirmations, Senate Democrats have uniformly held the line on big votes in the Trump era. Democrats voted unanimously against GOP efforts to dismantle Obamacare and cut taxes, for example. But in deep-blue California, Sen. Dianne Feinstein wasn’t so lucky. The 26-year incumbent, who has frustrated liberals with her moderation—and frustrated ambitious California Democrats by being a 26-year-incumbent—will face state Senate President Kevin de Leon in the June 5 open primary. Under California’s election rules, Democrats and Republicans compete in the same primary, and the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, move on to the general election. So there’s a good chance this race won’t be settled until November.

[Addie]

Politico

Panic time: Democratic cash swamps House Republicans

Is it time for Republicans to start freaking out?

More than 40 House Republican incumbents were outraised in the final quarter of 2017 by one — or several — of their Democratic opponents, according to the latest round of fundraising numbers. And of that group, more than a dozen had less cash on hand than their Democratic challengers.

For the GOP, here’s the really disturbing part: The trendline is getting worse, not better. Despite the myriad advantages of incumbency and control of Congress, there are more House members with less cash on hand than their Democratic challengers than the quarter before.

“Those numbers should be concerning for all Republicans,” said Mike DuHaime, a GOP consultant based in New Jersey. “This is going to the be the most challenging political environment since 2006, so you have to be ready. And lot of these members came in after 2006, so for many, this will be the most challenging environment they’ve ever run in. And that’s going to prove difficult.”

A flood of Democratic money poured into House races across the country in 2017, provided in large part by small-dollar, online contributors animated by opposition to President Donald Trump and the Republican majorities in Congress. More than 80 Democratic challengers in Republican-held districts have at least $250,000 in cash on hand at the end of the year — a sign that the House battlefield may be wider than previously thought.

[RTH10260]

Politico

Panic time: Democratic cash swamps House Republicans

Is it time for Republicans to start freaking out?

Considering the playing grounds it's too early for the Democrats to party. The large donors backing the Republicans like the Koch brothers and other anonymous supporters of Republican leaning Super PACs will release their moneys when times comes and there is a real need to heave a specific Republican candidate thru the election cycle.

[fierceredpanda]

Considering the playing frounds it's too early for the Democrats to party. The large donors backing the Republicans like the Koch brothers and other anonymous supporters of Republican leaning Super PACs will release their moneys when times comes and there is a real need to heave a specific Republican candidate thru the election cycle.

Well said. Koch PACs just sent Paul Ryan something like half a million last week alone. Meanwhile, a lot of Dem donors in my area have been noncommittal about opening their checkbooks for reasons passing understanding. I keep wanting to scream at them that the Kochs and Mercers of the world don't stop writing checks after one bad election, they double down. Our side gets all defeatist, and then wonders why we keep getting buried.

[Foggy]

I don't think Dems are ready to party. If anything gets much worse, I expect literally millions to rise up in protest.

Having said that, check out this text one of my friends posted on Facebook:

Since 25th November 2017, NC voter rolls added:
~3100 republicans
~1500 democrats
~17000 unaffiliated

[Volkonski]

Josh Kraushaar
✔
@HotlineJosh

ALERT: @CookPolitical moves 21 (!) House races towards Ds, noting that not-ready-for-primetime candidates creating more D opportunities.
https://www.
cookpolitical.com/analysis/house
/house-overview/february-house-overview
…
8:51 AM - Feb 8, 2018

Michael Li
✔
@mcpli

Cook moves four more GOP held seats to tossups.
8:44 AM - Feb 8, 2018

[Addie]

Politico: The Democrats’ secret weapon to take back statehouses

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is pumping money and infrastructure into an array of legislative races. Special election results suggest it’s paying off.

[Addie]

Houston Chronicle

Another surprise special election win has Democrats bullish on Texas

AUSTIN -- Upsets in special elections in Wisconsin, Missouri and now Florida have Texas Democrats more convinced than ever that a "blue wave" is developing that will help them make gains in the Republican-dominated state legislature, including in Houston races.

"It's definitely a trend," said Rep. Cesar Blanco, an El Paso Democrat who is co-chair of the Texas House Democratic Campaign Committee that focuses on growing the party's numbers.

Blanco said the big upsets are showing that the era of Donald Trump Republican politics has created an opening for Democrats to win races, even in places that Republicans are big favorites. ...

Tuesday's win in Republican-dominated Sarasota County in Florida was being closely watched by Democrats in Texas who have already have races they are targeting in 2018. Specifically Democrats are determined to challenge Republican State House members who are in districts that Hillary Clinton either beat Trump or was within a few percentage points of winning.

There are about 20 of those types of races on the Democratic target list and five in the Houston area on that list.

[Addie]

Economist

Women could be the undoing of Donald Trump ...

Amid the rancour of American politics, the large number of first-time women candidates the Democrats will field is unequivocally positive. Around 400 women, mostly Democrats, are planning to run for the House, at least 50 for the Senate and 79 for governor. That is far more than have previously stood for any of those offices. At state and local levels, the picture is the same. In 2015 and 2016 around 900 women consulted Emily’s List about standing for office; since Mr Trump’s election, over 26,000 have.

That such numbers are extraordinary is in part testament to how far America lags on this issue. Less than 20% of members of the current House of Representatives are women. That puts America 99th in an international ranking of women’s representation. This is despite a couple of previous “years of the women”, as the current cycle is inevitably being called. The most recent, 1992, saw a smaller spike in women candidates—as now, mainly on the left—sparked by the chauvinist handling of Anita Hill, who had accused Justice Clarence Thomas of sexual harassment, during his confirmation hearing. In turn, this led to a rise in the number of congresswomen. But it has since levelled off because of rising barriers to entry, including a decline in the number of competitive seats and soaring campaign costs, which are especially forbidding to political outsiders.

To generate a new surge, that example suggested, was likely to require another high-profile case of chauvinism. Mr Trump provided so many, both in his private behaviour and his behaviour towards Mrs Clinton, that over 2m women marched in protest the day after his inauguration. The #MeToo meme has since turned the marches into a grander cultural movement. And still Mr Trump keeps doubling down. In the past week he has defended a senior aide and alleged wife-beater, Rob Porter, and also suggested the backlash against sexual harassment has gone too far. Of the many culture clashes America’s patriarch-in-chief has engineered over the past year—with black footballers, Hispanic migrants, transgender soldiers and other emblems of the socioeconomic changes his supporters fear—this is by far the riskiest.

If Mr Trump has a calculation, it is that sticking it to a lot of self-righteous Democratic women will cost him little support among women who vote Republican, while delighting their husbands. That is logical. His defeat of Mrs Clinton showed the great extent to which partisan loyalty trumps genders. Hardly any Republican women, who tend to be older than Democrats and more conservative in their views on gender relations, among other things, voted for her. Yet mid-terms are not won by wooing the other side’s supporters, but by whichever party turns out its own voters. On that basis Mr Trump appears to have handed the Democrats an enormous advantage. By inspiring so many new candidates to come forward—as “an outraged sorority”, in Mrs Houlahan’s phrase—he has helped the party remedy one of its biggest weaknesses, the shallowness of its bench. In the process, the confusion of left-wing groups that have been leading the opposition to Mr Trump, including Emily’s List and Indivisible, a grass-roots group which introduced many of the newbie candidates to activism, has started to coalesce. Moreover, as the surge in women candidates also suggests, Mr Trump’s chauvinism may have stirred up Democratic voters across the board.

Nice to #MeToo