Trump effect - Energized Dems

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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#26

Post by Addie » Tue Oct 10, 2017 3:00 pm

Politico
Democrats see path to Senate majority in 2018

The odds remain long for a takeover, but Republicans are still growing concerned.

Something remarkable is happening in the halls of the Capitol: talk of a serious fight for the Senate majority next year.

Senate Democrats, once all but resigned to staying in the minority until at least 2020, say the door to retaking the chamber in next year’s midterms has cracked — just barely — if everything breaks their way. And instead of boasting about how many more seats they’re about to pick up, Republicans are now pondering the once-unthinkable possibility of losing the Senate, and with it, the ability to confirm President Donald Trump’s nominees.

While Republicans have been locked in bruising internal battles all year, legislatively and in GOP primaries, Senate Democrats in recent days scored a prized recruit in Arizona and saw a Republican titan in Tennessee, Bob Corker, retire. Public polls in the Alabama Senate race have shown Democrat Doug Jones within single digits of bomb-throwing Republican Roy Moore — forcing national Democrats to wrestle with whether to spend money in one of the most conservative states in the nation.

Democratic senators are loath to boast too publicly about their recent spate of political fortune. But they’re starting to see a path, however narrow, that hadn’t existed before. “The map feels a little different today than it did a few weeks ago,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.). “We might be playing a little more offense. At the same time, we don’t have a lot of bandwidth for offense given the defense we have to play.”


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#27

Post by RTH10260 » Tue Oct 10, 2017 10:08 pm

Addie wrote:
Tue Oct 10, 2017 3:00 pm
Politico
Democrats see path to Senate majority in 2018

The odds remain long for a takeover, but Republicans are still growing concerned.

Something remarkable is happening in the halls of the Capitol: talk of a serious fight for the Senate majority next year.
:snippity:
IMHO it's a good thing that Democrats trigger the FUD factor, even when their chances are poor. It's all about exposure, visibility and getting a message out. Voters may start thinking about the message of the GOP and its Trump character.



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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#28

Post by Suranis » Wed Oct 11, 2017 3:02 am

Energised Dems mean an energised left, and this left is actually looking at working with Dems. Apart from the Sanders wing which does 90% of its screaming about Dems and how they are traitors and they will never work with them, because of course.

The ‘Resistance,’ Raising Big Money, Upends Liberal Politics

By KENNETH P. VOGELOCT. 7, 2017
WASHINGTON — It started as a scrappy grass-roots protest movement against President Trump, but now the so-called resistance is attracting six- and seven-figure checks from major liberal donors, posing an insurgent challenge to some of the left’s most venerable institutions — and the Democratic Party itself.

The jockeying between groups, donors and operatives for cash and turf is occurring mostly behind the scenes. But it has grown acrimonious at times, with upstarts complaining they are being boxed out by a liberal establishment that they say enables the sort of Democratic timidity that paved the way for the Trump presidency.

The tug of war — more than the lingering squabbles between supporters of Hillary Clinton and Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont — foreshadows a once-in-a-generation reorganization of the American left that could dictate the tactics and ideology of the Democratic Party for years to come. If the newcomers prevail, they could pull the party further to the left, leading it to embrace policy positions like those advocated by Mr. Sanders, including single-payer health care and free tuition at public colleges.

The upending of the left comes amid a broader realignment in American politics, with the Republican Party establishment also contending with a rising rebellion, driven by pro-Trump populists. Just as the new forces on the right are threatening primary challenges to establishment Republicans, some groups on the left have begun talking about targeting Democratic incumbents in the 2018 midterm elections.
The article goes on to say that the more established liberal groups are helping out the new guys with advice and contacts.


Irony can be pretty ironic sometimes.

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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#29

Post by Slartibartfast » Wed Oct 11, 2017 10:42 am

Suranis,

There are plenty of people who don't care about Bernie Sanders and question the competence and integrity of the current Democratic party. If this is truly a "a once-in-a-generation reorganization of the American left", and, personally, I hope and believe it will be much more than that, I think we can do better than just single payer health care and free college, I think we need to do better than that. This is the thing that should go with the New Deal and the Great Society, except better, right?

If the coach of your football team (soccer to us) had gotten shellacked in the previous two outings and was talking about how morale on the enemy team was low and their fan support was high and that this would continue and translate into a victory in the next game (over a year away) for reasons, what would you do? Double down and support them or fire their ass while there's still time to do something about it and hire someone who will get the fucking Bad News Bears off the field or at least give them a training montage?

http://southpark.cc.com/clips/153324/sp ... ng-montage


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#30

Post by Addie » Fri Oct 13, 2017 2:41 pm

Cook Political Report
House: Ratings Changes in 12 Districts as Democrats Gain Momentum

President Trump and GOP control of Congress have sparked a 2018 Democratic candidate bonanza. Don't call it "recruitment:" for the most part, these aspirants decided to take the plunge on their own. Many are political newcomers; others have waited years for the right moment to run. And in light of national polling, it was only a matter of time before more GOP-held House seats joined the ranks of the vulnerable.

Over the past week, the Cook Political Report has met with dozens of Democratic candidates sporting impressive resumes, ranging from military veterans and former Obama administration officials to prosecutors and scientists. Much like the GOP's crop of candidates in 2010, only a handful were current or former elected officials. However, some campaigns have progressed more quickly than others and not all opportunities are created equal.

For example, Democrats are rightfully excited about former federal prosecutor Jay Hulings, 42, who has taken on drug cartels and public corruption in South Texas. He possesses the national security credentials to go toe to toe with GOP Rep. Will Hurd (TX-23), a former undercover CIA agent, and it doesn't hurt that he's politically close to the Castro brothers and married to a former Miss San Antonio. But he must also overcome a competitive primary and typically low Latino turnout in midterms.

Based on recent developments in races and conversations with candidates and operatives on both sides of the aisle, many races have the potential to become more competitive. This week, we're changing our ratings in 12 districts ...


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#31

Post by Addie » Tue Oct 24, 2017 10:58 am

A New York Mag article about the odious Mark Penn contained this helpful 538 chart:


Since FiveThirtyEight put together that table, Democrats have flipped state legislative seats in Florida, New Hampshire, and Oklahoma.


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#32

Post by Addie » Wed Oct 25, 2017 10:32 am

Politico
America hits new landmark: 200 million registered voters

The 2016 campaign may have reached dispiriting new lows, but voter registration in America has soared to new heights as 200 million people are now registered to vote for the first time in U.S. history.

The milestone is a sign of the aggressive voter registration efforts ahead of Nov. 8 and a symptom of the fast-growing and demographically shifting electorate that is expected to redound to the benefit of the Democratic Party in the coming years.

There is no current national database of voter registration because each state independently runs its own election. But TargetSmart, a Democratic political data firm, told POLITICO that the country passed the 200 million threshold in recent days as North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada and New York reported new voter numbers. ...

The figure means more than 50 million new people have registered to vote in the past eight years. Only 146.3 million were registered as recently as 2008, when then-Sen. Barack Obama first won the White House — a remarkable 33 percent surge in the electorate during a single presidency. ...

Overall, TargetSmart found that 42.6 percent of the new voters registered this year lean Democratic, and only 29 percent lean Republican (28.4 percent lean independent).

Worse for the GOP, registration trended more Democratic in every single battleground state, from a small margin in Georgia (4.3 percentage points) to massive leads in diversifying states like Colorado (29.3 points), Nevada (20.4 points) and North Carolina (9.2 points).


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#33

Post by RVInit » Wed Oct 25, 2017 11:20 am

I think it's misleading and wishful thinking to believe that Independents could possibly vote either way, i.e. a Democratic or Republican candidate could possibly appeal to them. Many voters that I personally know in Florida who are "Independent" would never in a million years vote for a Democratic candidate. They only register as Independent because Republicans are not far enough to the right for their tastes. They will vote for the R candidate no matter who it is, they simply have a preference for one that is as far right as possible.


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#34

Post by Addie » Wed Nov 08, 2017 9:08 am

The Hill
Obama on Dem election wins: 'This is what happens when the people vote'

Former President Obama on Wednesday celebrated the Democratic victories in Tuesday's elections.

"This is what happens when the people vote. Congrats @RalphNortham and @PhilMurphyNJ," Obama tweeted.

"And congratulations to all the victors in state legislative, county and mayors' races. Every office in a democracy counts!" ...

The breadth of the Democratic wins surprised most. But as the results came in on Tuesday, Democrats said they had energized their core voters and capitalized on President Trump's unpopularity to reach swing voters.

"This is not a wave. This is a tsunami," Virginia Del. David Toscano, leader of the state's Democratic caucus, told The Hill in an interview Tuesday night.


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#35

Post by Tiredretiredlawyer » Wed Nov 08, 2017 10:46 am



"The people must know before they can act, and there is no educator to compare with the press." - Ida B. Wells-Barnett, journalist, newspaper editor, suffragist, feminist and founder with others of NAACP.

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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#36

Post by Addie » Wed Nov 08, 2017 2:25 pm

Yahoo News
Democrats make huge gains in Virginia House ...

Call it the revenge of Obama’s America. Candidates straight from blue-state central casting defeated longtime Republicans on the strength of high turnout, driven by campaigns that focused on local issues and took advantage of fierce Democratic anti-Trump sentiment to rack up impressive fundraising numbers — and get-out-the-vote help from outside groups. ...

The one thing organizers did know: You can’t win if you don’t run, and you can’t catch a wave if you don’t have candidates. In 2015, only 29 of the state’s House of Delegates elections were head-to-head Democrat vs. Republican contests; most of the races were not contested.

That changed this year, when 88 of the races featured head-to-head contests.


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#37

Post by June bug » Wed Nov 08, 2017 3:46 pm

Addie wrote:
Wed Nov 08, 2017 2:25 pm
Yahoo News
Democrats make huge gains in Virginia House ...

Call it the revenge of Obama’s America. Candidates straight from blue-state central casting defeated longtime Republicans on the strength of high turnout, driven by campaigns that focused on local issues and took advantage of fierce Democratic anti-Trump sentiment to rack up impressive fundraising numbers — and get-out-the-vote help from outside groups. ...

The one thing organizers did know: You can’t win if you don’t run, and you can’t catch a wave if you don’t have candidates. In 2015, only 29 of the state’s House of Delegates elections were head-to-head Democrat vs. Republican contests; most of the races were not contested.

That changed this year, when 88 of the races featured head-to-head contests.
Great article, thanks Addie. Sadly, the comments section is rife with trans/homophobic right-wingers.



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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#38

Post by NotaPerson » Thu Nov 09, 2017 9:49 am

Here is something that will put a smile on your face.

The WP takes a look at some little-known people around the country who won on Tuesday. Including a former Liberian refugee who became the mayor of Helena, Mt., and a Sikh who became mayor of Hoboken, NJ..

The Daily 202: Fresh Democratic faces emerge from anti-Trump backlash. Here are six stars who were born with Tuesday’s elections.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/pow ... 81e8f5fd46

Loving that Trump effect. :thumbs:


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#39

Post by NotaPerson » Thu Nov 09, 2017 10:00 am

RVInit wrote:
Wed Oct 25, 2017 11:20 am
I think it's misleading and wishful thinking to believe that Independents could possibly vote either way, i.e. a Democratic or Republican candidate could possibly appeal to them. Many voters that I personally know in Florida who are "Independent" would never in a million years vote for a Democratic candidate. They only register as Independent because Republicans are not far enough to the right for their tastes. They will vote for the R candidate no matter who it is, they simply have a preference for one that is as far right as possible.
It's not wishful thinking. It is hopeful and realistic thinking.

I know that Independents traditionally tend to lean Republican, and yeah, I too have heard of people registering as Independent because the Republican party isn't far enough to the right.

But in poll after poll these days (on general approval of the President, Obamacare repeal), far more Independents are siding with Dems than with Repubs. It's not even close.

Granted, these people need to get out and vote for this to matter. But what happened on Tuesday strongly suggests they will do just that.


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#40

Post by jmj » Thu Nov 09, 2017 10:12 am

NotaPerson wrote:
Thu Nov 09, 2017 9:49 am
Here is something that will put a smile on your face.

The WP takes a look at some little-known people around the country who won on Tuesday. Including a former Liberian refugee who became the mayor of Helena, Mt., and a Sikh who became mayor of Hoboken, NJ..

The Daily 202: Fresh Democratic faces emerge from anti-Trump backlash. Here are six stars who were born with Tuesday’s elections.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/pow ... 81e8f5fd46

Loving that Trump effect. :thumbs:
Andrea Jenkins (African-American trans woman) from the article is my new city council member.

By the way, since Minneapolis uses ranked choice voting, not all races are decided on election day. We have to wait until the second- and third-choice votes are transferred in subsequent rounds to know the final winner. The amazing thing is that yesterday after all of the races were finalized, it turns out that a second transgender African-American was elected to the city council in ward 4. Phillipe Cunningham, an African-American trans man defeated the current council president. So, out of 13 city council members, 2 are now transgender African Americans. What a world :)



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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#41

Post by Sugar Magnolia » Thu Nov 09, 2017 10:14 am

NotaPerson wrote:
Thu Nov 09, 2017 10:00 am
RVInit wrote:
Wed Oct 25, 2017 11:20 am
I think it's misleading and wishful thinking to believe that Independents could possibly vote either way, i.e. a Democratic or Republican candidate could possibly appeal to them. Many voters that I personally know in Florida who are "Independent" would never in a million years vote for a Democratic candidate. They only register as Independent because Republicans are not far enough to the right for their tastes. They will vote for the R candidate no matter who it is, they simply have a preference for one that is as far right as possible.
It's not wishful thinking. It is hopeful and realistic thinking.

I know that Independents traditionally tend to lean Republican, and yeah, I too have heard of people registering as Independent because the Republican party isn't far enough to the right.

But in poll after poll these days (on general approval of the President, Obamacare repeal), far more Independents are siding with Dems than with Repubs. It's not even close.

Granted, these people need to get out and vote for this to matter. But what happened on Tuesday strongly suggests they will do just that.
Apparently, Independents lean slightly towards Dem.
Myth Of The 'Myth'?

Abramowitz says exit poll data show independents who say they lean toward a particular party — and most of them lean Democratic — follow through in the voting booth.
https://www.npr.org/2012/03/26/14940235 ... ent-voters
and
However, most independents express a partisan leaning: In 2014, 17% of the public leaned toward the Democratic Party while 16% leaned toward the GOP; just 6% declined to lean toward a party. When the partisan leanings of independents were taken into account, 48% either identified as Democrats or leaned Democratic; 39% identified as Republicans or leaned Republican.
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/20 ... ependents/



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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#42

Post by RVInit » Thu Nov 09, 2017 10:21 am

NotaPerson wrote:
Thu Nov 09, 2017 10:00 am
RVInit wrote:
Wed Oct 25, 2017 11:20 am
I think it's misleading and wishful thinking to believe that Independents could possibly vote either way, i.e. a Democratic or Republican candidate could possibly appeal to them. Many voters that I personally know in Florida who are "Independent" would never in a million years vote for a Democratic candidate. They only register as Independent because Republicans are not far enough to the right for their tastes. They will vote for the R candidate no matter who it is, they simply have a preference for one that is as far right as possible.
It's not wishful thinking. It is hopeful and realistic thinking.

I know that Independents traditionally tend to lean Republican, and yeah, I too have heard of people registering as Independent because the Republican party isn't far enough to the right.

But in poll after poll these days (on general approval of the President, Obamacare repeal), far more Independents are siding with Dems than with Repubs. It's not even close.

Granted, these people need to get out and vote for this to matter. But what happened on Tuesday strongly suggests they will do just that.
It would be interesting to know how many Independents lean moderate and how many lean ultra right wing. And yes, you are absolutely correct, it matters which ones vote. Even if more Independents are ultra right, if the moderate I's show up, that will make a big difference. I guess my point is that so many people I talk to believe all Independents are moderate, and that simply isn't true. It is especially untrue where I live, where most Independents are hard core right wing.

I am considering just flat out changing my registration from Independent to Democrat. I haven't voted for a Republican in many years, they simply are too far right for me at this point. And, my own opinions have shifted more to the left as well. I pretty much find the majority of Republicans currently in Congress to be just absolutely repugnant. Not all, but most.


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#43

Post by DejaMoo » Thu Nov 09, 2017 10:46 am

Sugar Magnolia wrote:
Thu Nov 09, 2017 10:14 am

Apparently, Independents lean slightly towards Dem.
Myth Of The 'Myth'?

Abramowitz says exit poll data show independents who say they lean toward a particular party — and most of them lean Democratic — follow through in the voting booth.
https://www.npr.org/2012/03/26/14940235 ... ent-voters
I forget who said it, but there's truth to this observation: Democrats fall in love; Republicans fall in line. If Republicans were as picky/choosy as Democrats over who/what they'll support, Hillary would be President right now.

And 'Independent' is just another word for 'choosy'. Yeah, an Indy might vote Republican occasionally (even Democrats have been known to do so), but personality-wise, Indies are a better fit with Dems.



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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#44

Post by DejaMoo » Thu Nov 09, 2017 10:57 am

jmj wrote:
Thu Nov 09, 2017 10:12 am
Andrea Jenkins (African-American trans woman) from the article is my new city council member.
I hope for your sake that she's better at that job than what I fear she'll be. She behaved most unprofessionally at a business meeting, where I was also present. I shan't go into the details, but her actions and behavior led me to conclude that if I had the opportunity to employ her or vote for her, I would do neither.



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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#45

Post by Addie » Sat Nov 11, 2017 1:30 pm

The Guardian
Democratic victories point to growing anti-Trump coalition, experts say

Democratic victories in elections across the US this week showed the first concrete evidence of an emerging anti-Donald Trump coalition, analysts said.

Sweeping wins in Virginia and surprise gains in state legislative races – seen by many as a referendum on the president – have boosted Democratic hopes of even bigger wins in next year’s midterm elections.

Bill Galston, a senior fellow in the Brookings Institution governance studies programme, said: “The thing I found most striking was the enormous increase in turnout, particularly on the Democratic side.

“What that suggests is the energy and anger have shifted from the Republican side, where it has been located for a series of elections, to the Democratic side. Trump succeeded in mobilising his support before he succeeded in mobilising his detractors. He’s now reached phase two.”

For the first time, there is a tangible measure of an anti-Trump coalition.


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#46

Post by Sterngard Friegen » Sat Nov 11, 2017 2:29 pm

If Democrats would turn out like Republicans they'd be unstoppable. But Democrats have never been energized in the past, except for 2008. Now that many Democrats see what their apathy has brought, perhaps they will be more engaged next year. Perhaps. In Virginia it was young people and minorities who turned out in droves. Can that be duplicated nationwide? I am not sanguine.



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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#47

Post by Addie » Wed Nov 15, 2017 10:48 am

The Hill
Dems add to edge in big-city mayoralties

New Mexico state Auditor Tim Keller (D) on Tuesday won a landslide victory to become Albuquerque’s next mayor, adding another Democratic takeover to the party’s strong performances this fall.

Keller took 62 percent of the vote, besting city council member Dan Lewis (R) for the right to replace two-term Mayor Richard Berry (R).

Keller’s win, and Berry’s exit, mean Democrats will now control the mayor’s office in 63 of the nation’s 100 largest cities. Republicans control just 28 mayor’s offices, and nine mayors are independents, according to a count maintained by Ballotpedia. ...

“Democrats particularly are very organized and very energized, especially in places where they’ve been historically strong,” Dave Beaudoin, who oversees municipal election research at Ballotpedia, said. ...

Democrats control the executive branch in 20 of the nation’s 25 largest cities. San Diego is the largest city in America run by a Republican, Mayor Kevin Faulconer. San Antonio, the nation’s seventh-largest city, is run by an independent, Mayor Ron Nirenberg.


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#48

Post by Addie » Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:03 pm

The Hill
Dem leaders increasingly bullish about retaking House ...

At a roundtable meeting with reporters in his Capitol Hill office on Wednesday, Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-Md.), the second-ranking House Democrat, put the odds of Democrats winning a majority in 2018 at 60 percent.

But Hoyer, the top Democratic vote-wrangler in the House, talks like he thinks a majority is much more certain than that.

Hoyer cited a litany of statics, including fundraising, polling, recruiting and President Trump’s historically low approval ratings as reasons for why the Democrats are in position to flip the 24 seats they need to claim a majority in the House for the first time since 2010.

“Here’s your headline — Democrats take House in 2018,” Hoyer said.


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#49

Post by Sterngard Friegen » Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:23 pm

The Dems' campaign ads are going to be 30 minutes long!



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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#50

Post by Tiredretiredlawyer » Wed Nov 15, 2017 10:17 pm

Sterngard Friegen wrote:
Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:23 pm
The Dems' campaign ads are going to be 30 minutes long!
At 30 minutes they can put in a bunch of subliminal messages too, also!


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