Trump effect - Energized Dems

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Lani
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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#101

Post by Lani » Tue Jul 24, 2018 2:12 am

The right side was cut off on my phone, too. So I turned my phone sideways, and it all fits.


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#102

Post by TollandRCR » Tue Jul 24, 2018 2:13 am

That works. I have had it not work sometimes, as for the cartoons. I have no idea why.


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#103

Post by Addie » Tue Jul 24, 2018 7:46 am

Sabato's Crystal Ball
The House Tilts Toward the Democrats

Big-picture factors help minority party, but battle far from over; 17 ratings changes in favor of Democrats


KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Democrats are now a little better than 50-50 to win the House. This is the first time this cycle we’ve gone beyond 50-50 odds on a House turnover.

— We’re making 17 House ratings changes this week, all in favor of the Democrats.

— One of those comes in OH-12, where the last nationally-watched special House election is taking place in a couple of weeks.


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#104

Post by Foggy » Tue Jul 24, 2018 8:47 am

What did Sabato's crystal ball say on Nov. 7, 2016? :think:


Because I used to believe in polls ... but not anymore. :notlistening:


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#105

Post by RVInit » Tue Jul 24, 2018 8:58 am

Foggy wrote:
Tue Jul 24, 2018 8:47 am
What did Sabato's crystal ball say on Nov. 7, 2016? :think:


Because I used to believe in polls ... but not anymore. :notlistening:
I suspect a large number of people who intended, and did, vote for Trump, lied about it to pollsters. Almost everyone that I know of who is now bragging and rubbing it in that they voted for Trump, were claiming to be undecided the day before they voted. And these are all people who are diehard Trump supporters from Nov 9 on.


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#106

Post by Mikedunford » Tue Jul 24, 2018 9:26 am

Foggy wrote:
Tue Jul 24, 2018 8:47 am
What did Sabato's crystal ball say on Nov. 7, 2016? :think:


Because I used to believe in polls ... but not anymore. :notlistening:
Polls always have margins of error. And rare events happen. Even Sam "I ate a bug on national TV" Wang had Trump at about a 1% chance to win the election - and 1% things happen. I remember thinking about that just before the 2016 election, when I won a smallish raffle prize (at about a 0.5% chance).

But that doesn't make polls useless. It just means that people need to pay more attention to the details and uncertainties. Which was what Slarti kept trying to tell people, IIRC.


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#107

Post by TollandRCR » Tue Jul 24, 2018 9:27 am

Foggy wrote:
Tue Jul 24, 2018 8:47 am
What did Sabato's crystal ball say on Nov. 7, 2016? :think:


Because I used to believe in polls ... but not anymore. :notlistening:
Doubt is good, but remember that in presidential elections national results are not helpful. State polls are necessary under this blasted federal system. The system that preserves the rights of geopolitical units rather than the rights of people.


“The truth is, we know so little about life, we don’t really know what the good news is and what the bad news is.” Kurt Vonnegut

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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#108

Post by Suranis » Tue Jul 24, 2018 9:33 am




Huh, I dont know why, Its sonething I coppied on facebook and there is a limit to how small I can make it. Her it is shrunk a bit, I hope you can still read it.


Irony can be pretty ironic sometimes.

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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#109

Post by TollandRCR » Tue Jul 24, 2018 9:45 am

#6 is crucial. If we believe that democracy is dead or dying, we may be too discouraged to act. It is not dead or dying unless we — not they — kill it.


“The truth is, we know so little about life, we don’t really know what the good news is and what the bad news is.” Kurt Vonnegut

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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#110

Post by RVInit » Tue Jul 24, 2018 10:36 am

Suranis wrote:
Tue Jul 24, 2018 9:33 am



Huh, I dont know why, Its sonething I coppied on facebook and there is a limit to how small I can make it. Her it is shrunk a bit, I hope you can still read it.
This is really a great list and a great reminder. Thank you for posting it here. I am going to copy it to a prominent place where I can open it up quickly and remind myself. Really good stuff.

In my case, because of how I use my TV and wireless mouse and keyboard, I have my browser on 175%, so I had to scroll. When I put my page page down to a lower number, the big one all shows up without the scrollbars and I can see it all. I don't know if others have the same issue for a similar reason. :thumbs:


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#111

Post by RoadScholar » Tue Jul 24, 2018 10:39 am

My list has only one entry:

1) DEMOCRATS TO THE POLLS.


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#112

Post by pipistrelle » Tue Jul 24, 2018 1:29 pm

RoadScholar wrote:
Tue Jul 24, 2018 10:39 am
My list has only one entry:

1) DEMOCRATS TO THE POLLS.
In theory, good, but that Wisconsin story makes me think there was some vote meddling.



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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#113

Post by Suranis » Tue Jul 24, 2018 1:33 pm

I think with his "Russia is meddling in favour of the Dems" tweet today, trump is back to "If we lose its because IT WAS RIGGED!!!!" shit. Which means someone showed him the internal polling today and it said "UR F*CKED" on the top.


Irony can be pretty ironic sometimes.

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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#114

Post by RoadScholar » Tue Jul 24, 2018 7:38 pm

There should be an intelligently designed (see: Barack Obama) effort to identify the millions of voters registered as Democrats who did not vote in the last election.

Then we need to appeal to them to vote and help them do so.

It is almost just that simple.


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#115

Post by TollandRCR » Wed Jul 25, 2018 9:21 am

It is almost that simple, RoadScholsr, with one qualification: the Democrats need candidates for whom people want to vote. It is not clear to me who that will be for the presidency in 2020.

Former Vice president Biden? He is really old. Bullock of Montana? Same ideas, wrong name recognition? Sen. Warren? Almost as old as Biden.

But the presumed opponent,Trump, will also be old in 2020. Is there no one younger in the Democrstic Party who can beat that fool?


“The truth is, we know so little about life, we don’t really know what the good news is and what the bad news is.” Kurt Vonnegut

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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#116

Post by fierceredpanda » Wed Jul 25, 2018 10:32 am

To name a few off the top of my head: Senators Gillibrand, Klobuchar, Murphy, Harris, and Schatz. Former Attorney General Holder. Congressman Tim Ryan. Governor Hickenlooper.


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#117

Post by Tiredretiredlawyer » Wed Jul 25, 2018 10:43 am

fierceredpanda wrote:
Wed Jul 25, 2018 10:32 am
To name a few off the top of my head: Senators Gillibrand, Klobuchar, Murphy, Harris, and Schatz. Former Attorney General Holder. Congressman Tim Ryan. Governor Hickenlooper.
Kamala Harris, Jeff Merkley, Dick Durbin...


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#118

Post by fierceredpanda » Wed Jul 25, 2018 10:44 am

Tiredretiredlawyer wrote:
Wed Jul 25, 2018 10:43 am
fierceredpanda wrote:
Wed Jul 25, 2018 10:32 am
To name a few off the top of my head: Senators Gillibrand, Klobuchar, Murphy, Harris, and Schatz. Former Attorney General Holder. Congressman Tim Ryan. Governor Hickenlooper.
Kamala Harris, Jeff Merkley, Dick Durbin...
See highlighted. Merkley I agree with, Durbin I do not. He's a good fundraiser and senator, but he isn't presidential material.


"There's no play here. There's no angle. There's no champagne room. I'm not a miracle worker, I'm a janitor. The math on this is simple; the smaller the mess, the easier it is for me to clean up." -Michael Clayton

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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#119

Post by qbawl » Wed Jul 25, 2018 10:47 am

Jerry Springer! Whoops nevermind too old.



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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#120

Post by Tiredretiredlawyer » Wed Jul 25, 2018 10:59 am

fierceredpanda wrote:
Wed Jul 25, 2018 10:44 am
Tiredretiredlawyer wrote:
Wed Jul 25, 2018 10:43 am
fierceredpanda wrote:
Wed Jul 25, 2018 10:32 am
To name a few off the top of my head: Senators Gillibrand, Klobuchar, Murphy, Harris, and Schatz. Former Attorney General Holder. Congressman Tim Ryan. Governor Hickenlooper.
Kamala Harris, Jeff Merkley, Dick Durbin...
See highlighted. Merkley I agree with, Durbin I do not. He's a good fundraiser and senator, but he isn't presidential material.
Oops! Didn't "compute" the Harris without the Kamala.


"The people must know before they can act, and there is no educator to compare with the press." - Ida B. Wells-Barnett, journalist, newspaper editor, suffragist, feminist and founder with others of NAACP.

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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#121

Post by fierceredpanda » Wed Jul 25, 2018 11:02 am

No worries, TRL. :bighug:


"There's no play here. There's no angle. There's no champagne room. I'm not a miracle worker, I'm a janitor. The math on this is simple; the smaller the mess, the easier it is for me to clean up." -Michael Clayton

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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#122

Post by Addie » Wed Jul 25, 2018 12:03 pm

Roll Call - Walter Shapiro
No, Dems Aren’t Disarrayed, Riven, Imploding, Eating Their Young or Battling for the Soul of the Party ...

For a party supposedly riven by unbridgeable chasms, the Democrats survived the primaries without major stumbles. This year, there are no Democratic challengers in winnable seats who have been forced to go on television to explain, “I am not a witch.” And in California’s top-two “jungle primary,” the Democrats avoided squandering any potential House pickups by making sure they got a candidate onto the ballot in all contested districts.

Nor are this year’s congressional races some overwrought struggle for the soul of the Democratic Party. Presidential candidates, rather than congressional contenders, define the direction of a party. The current Republican Party is a haunted-house image of Trump rather than a reflection of the economic issues that animated GOP congressional candidates in 2014 and 2016.

Even the left-wing Democratic slogans that so alarm centrists are a little less fearsome on closer examination.

The promise of single-payer (that is, federal government) health coverage represents more aspirational Democratic feeling tones than a realistic policy proposal. No future Congress is likely to take away private health coverage from those Americans who like what they already have. At most, the eventual repair of Obamacare would include the option to allow the uninsured to buy into Medicare or its equivalent. ...

No party is ever completely unified, not even the Republicans who are fearfully pledging their fealty to Trump. But the Democrats — for all their differences over economics and temperament — recognize the anti-Trump stakes in 2018. And so, for once in their turbulent history, they are more arrayed rather than disarrayed.


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#123

Post by vic » Thu Jul 26, 2018 1:04 am


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#124

Post by RoadScholar » Thu Jul 26, 2018 10:28 am

TollandRCR wrote:
Wed Jul 25, 2018 9:21 am
It is almost that simple, RoadScholsr, with one qualification: the Democrats need candidates for whom people want to vote. It is not clear to me who that will be for the presidency in 2020.

Former Vice president Biden? He is really old. Bullock of Montana? Same ideas, wrong name recognition? Sen. Warren? Almost as old as Biden.

But the presumed opponent,Trump, will also be old in 2020. Is there no one younger in the Democrstic Party who can beat that fool?
Are you kidding? I’d vote for a Labradoodle if it ran as a Democrat rather than vote for the lying racist adulterous deadbeat con man who usurped the presidency with the help of the Kremlin.

No matter who runs, it would be mathematically impossible for him or her to be less qualified, less capable, and more damaging to the nation, than Trump.


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#125

Post by NotaPerson » Thu Jul 26, 2018 10:55 am

RoadScholar wrote:
Thu Jul 26, 2018 10:28 am
TollandRCR wrote:
Wed Jul 25, 2018 9:21 am
It is almost that simple, RoadScholsr, with one qualification: the Democrats need candidates for whom people want to vote. It is not clear to me who that will be for the presidency in 2020.

Former Vice president Biden? He is really old. Bullock of Montana? Same ideas, wrong name recognition? Sen. Warren? Almost as old as Biden.

But the presumed opponent,Trump, will also be old in 2020. Is there no one younger in the Democrstic Party who can beat that fool?
Are you kidding? I’d vote for a Labradoodle if it ran as a Democrat rather than vote for the lying racist adulterous deadbeat con man who usurped the presidency with the help of the Kremlin.
I'm pretty sure all of us Fogbowzers would do the same.

I think Tolly meant we need someone that ordinary sane people can get excited about voting for. In the same way so many assholes got excited about voting for Trump. And I agree that it's not at all clear who that person would be.


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