Trump effect - Energized Dems

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Trump effect - Energized Dems

#1

Post by Addie » Mon Apr 24, 2017 7:36 am

Thread title changed

--------------------------------

Politico
Republicans sound alarm on Trump's troubles ahead of 2018

Republicans say President Donald Trump needs to turn things around fast — or the GOP could pay dearly in 2018.

With the party preparing to defend its congressional majorities in next year’s midterms, senior Republicans are expressing early concern about Trump’s lack of legislative accomplishments, his record-low approval ratings, and the overall dysfunction that’s gripped his administration.

The stumbles have drawn the attention of everyone from GOP mega-donor Sheldon Adelson, who funneled tens of millions of dollars into Trump’s election and is relied upon to bankroll the party’s House and Senate campaigns, to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. Adelson hasn’t contributed to pro-Trump outside groups since the inauguration, a move that’s drawn notice within the party, and McConnell is warning associates that Trump’s unpopularity could weigh down the GOP in the election.

Potential GOP candidates whom party leaders want to recruit are afraid of walking into a buzz saw, uncertain about what kind of political environment they’ll be facing by the time the midterms come around — and what Trump’s record will look like. ...

But interviews with more than a dozen top Republican operatives, donors and officials reveal a growing trepidation about how the initial days of the new political season are unfolding. And they underscore a deep anxiety about how the party will position itself in 2018 as it grapples with the leadership of an unpredictable president still acclimating to Washington.


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Re: Republicans sound alarm on Trump's troubles ahead of 2018

#2

Post by Azastan » Mon Apr 24, 2017 9:38 am

And yet only 2% of the people who voted for him regret their decisions. The majority of those probably don't think he's gone far enough for their taste. That means that most Republicans will probably get re-elected.



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Re: Republicans sound alarm on Trump's troubles ahead of 2018

#3

Post by AndyinPA » Mon Apr 24, 2017 10:21 am

I have purposely kept my number of FB "friends" down to a very small list. I have one distant cousin, though, who is obviously a 45 fan and voted for him. She posted something last night from a blog she reads about how people are not appreciative enough of how hard 45 is working over those weekends at Mar-a-lago.

They live in a different world, an alternate universe.



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Re: Republicans sound alarm on Trump's troubles ahead of 2018

#4

Post by Jim » Mon Apr 24, 2017 11:16 am

Yeah, but who is he working FOR? The American people or his personal profit? We all know the answer to that.



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Re: Republicans sound alarm on Trump's troubles ahead of 2018

#5

Post by AndyinPA » Mon Apr 24, 2017 11:23 am

Jim wrote:Yeah, but who is he working FOR? The American people or his personal profit? We all know the answer to that.
We do; they don't.



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Re: Republicans sound alarm on Trump's troubles ahead of 2018

#6

Post by Tiredretiredlawyer » Mon Apr 24, 2017 11:27 am

AndyinPA wrote:
Jim wrote:Yeah, but who is he working FOR? The American people or his personal profit? We all know the answer to that.
We do; they don't.
:like: :like: :like:


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#7

Post by Addie » Sun May 21, 2017 10:32 am

Philadelphia Inquirer
Trump effect? Energized Dems show muscle in primary in Philly suburbs

The primary after a presidential election typically is something less than an afterthought, but what happened in polling places across the suburbs of Philadelphia last week might qualify well as historic.

As many Democrats showed up to vote in an off-year election in Delaware County as Republicans, who have dominated local government for over a century. That was unprecedented, said David Landau, head of the county Democrats.

In Montgomery County, over 50,000 Democrats showed up to cast ballots -- double the 2013 number.

After the devastating loss of the White House in November, party leaders in the politically pivotal Philadelphia suburbs say they are jubilant over what they see as the first tangible sign that months of Trump rage might be turning into electoral muscle.

Delaware County GOP chief Andrew Reilly acknowledged a Trump effect. "This happened because the frustration, the perception, that Donald Trump is not a legitimate President," Reilly said. "We expected it."

It’s not that Republicans stayed home; their numbers were comparable to other off-year elections, based on unofficial returns. It’s just that Democrats came out.


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#8

Post by Addie » Sun May 28, 2017 10:22 am

I'm going to take a liberty with the article's title to avoid the B-word and a fight. :towel: I'd like this thread to be about Dem Party reform, a subject that interests me. I'd like it not to be about the B-word or the H-word, because I can't take any more of it. (I know already this is a silly thing to do. :P )

Salon
... Why populism is the pragmatic way forward for Democrats

Since last year’s presidential election, progressives have consistently stated that President Donald Trump’s election was not a victory for right-wing politics over progressive politics, but a victory for populism over the status quo. This, many have argued, is the key takeaway from 2016, which saw the Democratic Party lose control of all three branches of government, along with the majority of state legislatures and governorships.

Not surprisingly, the party establishment has yet to fully accept this verdict, and there remains an obstinate resistance to populism within the Democratic Party’s ranks. Indeed, many continue to insist that the 2016 election was a disaster because Democrats were too progressive, rather than being too much in line with the Establishment.

This perspective was dealt yet another blow this week, however, when two relatively minor elections in the Northeast provided further confirmation that populism is the pragmatic way forward for Democrats. ...

At first glance these two local elections may appear inconsequential, but their implications should be clear enough. These Democratic victories in Trump country obviously signal that a big electoral backlash reminiscent of 2010 may be upon us and that Trump’s toxic brand is beginning to contaminate other Republican candidates. The president’s approval rating continues to drop to historic lows, and even his base — about 30 percent of the electorate, give or take — appears to be shrinking. The chaotic and scandal-ridden first months of Trump’s presidency have generated widespread discontent, and there is no telling how big Democrats could win in the 2018 midterm elections.


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#9

Post by Foggy » Sun May 28, 2017 11:05 am

Successful populism requires a populist candy date. Who among us is the populist candy date that will restore all our political power? :think:


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#10

Post by Tiredretiredlawyer » Sun May 28, 2017 12:37 pm

Foggy wrote:Successful populism requires a populist candy date. Who among us is the populist candy date that will restore all our political power? :think:
I thought you had to be popular to win.


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#11

Post by ZekeB » Sun May 28, 2017 12:41 pm

Well I've heard a voice say "damn you're good" reflecting off my mirror.


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#12

Post by Tiredretiredlawyer » Sun May 28, 2017 12:43 pm

ZekeB wrote:Well I've heard a voice say "damn you're good" reflecting off my mirror.
I'll vote for you, ZB!


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#13

Post by ZekeB » Sun May 28, 2017 12:48 pm

Tiredretiredlawyer wrote:I'll vote for you, ZB!
Thank you for your support. :bighug: I don't have the stamina to do that anymore.


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#14

Post by ZekeB » Sun May 28, 2017 12:49 pm

ZekeB wrote:
Tiredretiredlawyer wrote:I'll vote for you, ZB!
Thank you for your support. :bighug: I don't have the stamina to do that anymore. I will say I'm in better shape than Someone Else.


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#15

Post by Tiredretiredlawyer » Sun May 28, 2017 12:50 pm

ZekeB wrote:
ZekeB wrote:
Tiredretiredlawyer wrote:I'll vote for you, ZB!
Thank you for your support. :bighug: I don't have the stamina to do that anymore. I will say I'm in better shape than Someone Else.
I don't have the stamina either, but we can always dream.


"The people must know before they can act, and there is no educator to compare with the press." - Ida B. Wells-Barnett, journalist, newspaper editor, suffragist, feminist and founder with others of NAACP.

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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#16

Post by ZekeB » Sun May 28, 2017 12:51 pm

Tiredretiredlawyer wrote:I'll vote for you, ZB!
Thank you for your support. :bighug: I don't have the stamina to do that anymore. I will say I'm in better shape than Someone Else.


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#17

Post by Addie » Sun May 28, 2017 2:41 pm

I wonder if we focus on direction and policy, rather than personalities, we might eventually get to candy dates that way? :think:
Foggy wrote:Successful populism requires a populist candy date. Who among us is the populist candy date that will restore all our political power? :think:


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#18

Post by Tiredretiredlawyer » Sun May 28, 2017 5:29 pm

I see focus on policy and direction in the activist groups: equality for all, equal wages for women, healthcare (not insurance) for all, etc.


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#19

Post by Volkonski » Thu Jun 08, 2017 8:34 am

Chris Murphy‏
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Chris Murphy Retweeted Connecticut Dems
This is a big deal. Special election in a swing town flips Board of Selectmen control from R to D. And it wasn't close.
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BREAKING: Democrat Kevin Kiley wins a landslide victory in #FairfieldCT special election! #Momentum #LocalElectionsMatter


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#20

Post by Sam the Centipede » Thu Jun 08, 2017 8:50 am

Volkonski wrote:
Chris Murphy‏
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 @ChrisMurphyCT Jun 6

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Chris Murphy Retweeted Connecticut Dems
This is a big deal. Special election in a swing town flips Board of Selectmen control from R to D. And it wasn't close.
Connecticut Dems‏
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@CTDems
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BREAKING: Democrat Kevin Kiley wins a landslide victory in #FairfieldCT special election! #Momentum #LocalElectionsMatter
Link to a fuller story in the press: http://fairfield.dailyvoice.com/politic ... an/713112/

Unofficial voting was 5,434 for Kiley (D) and 3,727 for Bateson (R), which is 60% to 40% The special election was caused by the resignation of a Republican selectman one year into his four year term.



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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#21

Post by Addie » Wed Sep 13, 2017 6:35 pm

The Hill
GOP worries as state Dems outperform in special elections

Democrats looking for positive harbingers ahead of next year’s midterms have found comfort in a string of special elections for vacant state legislative seats, ordinarily sleepy races in which their candidates are performing markedly better than the party’s 2016 presidential nominee.

The election results, even in deeply conservative states like Missouri and Oklahoma, are early evidence that the Democratic base is motivated to turn up to vote. That’s a worrying sign for Republicans, who will have to boost turnout among their own voters before next year’s contests.

“We’ve had our radar up for some time to the Democrats’ increased focus on the state level, and this continues that trend,” said Matt Walter, who heads the Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC), which focuses on state legislative races.

Republicans have only flipped one seat that had been held by Democrats — a deeply conservative district in Louisiana where no Democrat even filed to run.

Democrats think President Trump and his dismal approval ratings are to blame.

“The Democratic base is agitated and motivated,” said Kurt Fritts, a Democratic strategist who specializes in state legislative elections. “The Trump brand does not go over well even in deep red parts of the country.”


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#22

Post by Addie » Sat Sep 16, 2017 10:57 am

Axios
Dems winning in Trump country as Republicans resign

Democrats have recently taken six state House or Senate seats from Republicans. And they're in districts Trump won by large margins.

Why this matters: After getting swept in U.S. House special elections after Trump's win, Democratic success at the local level is an uplifting sign for the party, especially as state legislatures will be in charge of congressional redistricting ahead of 2022 elections.

Go deeper: Forward Majority, a new super PAC, is raising $100m to help Democrats win state races ahead of the next round of congressional redistricting. ...

What to watch for: Republican state Sen. Bryce Marlatt of Oklahoma's 27th district resigned earlier this week after charges of sexual battery against a female Uber driver. There are now three vacant Senate seats up for grabs in Oklahoma, all previously held by Republicans. And two races in the special general election on Nov. 14: Oklahoma's House District 76 race, after the seat was left vacant following the death of Republican Rep. David Brumbaugh, and Oklahoma's Senate District 45 race, which is vacant after Republican state Sen. Kyle Loveless resigned amid allegations of campaign finance allegations. But even if they sweep these races, Democrats would be more than a dozen seats from a majority in Oklahoma's 101-seat House.


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#23

Post by Addie » Thu Sep 28, 2017 1:20 pm

CNN - Chris Cillizza
Democrats just keep winning Republican seats they shouldn't be winning

(CNN)Roy Moore's victory in Alabama dominated the news on Wednesday. But, it was two far less high-profile races on Tuesday night -- one in Florida, one in New Hampshire -- that may well give us the best indication of where we are headed in the 2018 midterm elections.

In Florida, Democrat Annette Tadeo won a Republican-held state Senate district 51% to 47%. In New Hampshire, Democrat Kari Lerner beat a former Republican state representative to fill a state House district that Donald Trump won by 23 points last November.

Those twin wins make it eight Republican-controlled state legislative seats that Democrats have flipped in 2017 alone. (Republicans flipped a Democratic state House seat in Louisiana earlier this year although Democrats didn't even field a candidate in that race.)

That means that of the 27 Republican-held state legislative seats that have come open in 2017 to date, Democrats have now flipped almost 30% of them -- a remarkable number in any circumstance but especially so when you consider the average Trump margin in these seats in 2016 was 19 points. ...

Despite the differing circumstances in each of these races, however, Republicans ignore this trend at their own political peril. While Democrats at the federal level haven't been able to pull off the wins they have scored downballot, in virtually every House special election this year Democrats overperformed -- by a large amount -- Hillary Clinton's 2016 showing in these congressional seats.


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#24

Post by NotaPerson » Thu Sep 28, 2017 3:00 pm

Finally, a solid reason to believe that the 2018 elections should be good for Dems. I was hopeful, though not terribly optimistic.

Thanks Addie!


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Re: Trump effect - Energized Dems

#25

Post by Addie » Sun Oct 08, 2017 8:54 am

WaPo
Democrats are winning some impressive statehouse elections. What does that mean for 2018?

Let's put this into perspective first. Democrats are in the minority at nearly every single level of government, and nowhere is that more obvious than in the nation's statehouses. Republicans effectively control 68 of 99 state legislative chambers. At the congressional level, House Democrats would need to net 24 seats in November 2018 to take back control of the House of Representatives.

But despite all this, statehouse Democrats have a lot to celebrate. Democrats have flipped eight statehouse seats across the nation since President Trump got elected, all in districts Trump won last fall, according to data broken down by left-leaning political blog Daily Kos.

To better understand what's going on — and whether this translates to any broader Democratic Party momentum for the 2018 midterm elections — The Fix pinged Carolyn Fiddler, a former Democratic statehouse operative and current political editor for Daily Kos. We spoke by email this week and our conversation is lightly edited for length.

The Fix: What makes these eight wins so significant for Democrats?

Fiddler: Those eight Democratic pickups are a significant percentage of the 27 total state and congressional special elections held in Republican seats this cycle — almost 30 percent, actually. If Democrats were to flip 30 percent of Republican-held congressional seats in 2018, the House GOP caucus would lose 72 of its members. Republicans haven't picked up a single seat in a contested Democrat-vs.-Republican special election this year.


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