Polls 2018

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Re: Polls 2018

#51

Post by Addie » Thu Apr 12, 2018 10:02 am

NBC News
NBC News poll: The South, once a conservative bastion, is changing ...

NBC News conducted the extensive surveys of the South in order to capture residents' attitudes in the fast-changing region of the country.

Overall, the polls found voters in Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia to be optimistic about the economy, amenable to immigration, approving of same-sex marriage and open to paying higher taxes to fund education and infrastructure.

At the same time, the polls found Southerners to be deeply distrustful of the federal government (only 2 percent said they "just about always" believe Washington will do what's right), opposed to the removal of Confederate monuments from public areas, and committed to the GOP.

Immigration

While Trump's hardline policies on illegal immigration may appeal to his base, Southerners are in line with the rest of the country on the question of whether undocumented immigrants in the U.S. should be offered a chance to apply for legal status.

Seven-in-10 adults nationally and 69 percent in the South think migrants should be given a chance at attaining legal status, while 28 percent said they should be deported. And in the states polled individually —Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi and Tennessee — at least six-in-10 adults said they favored giving migrants a chance to attain legal status before deportation.
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Re: Polls 2018

#52

Post by Addie » Mon Apr 16, 2018 1:22 pm

The Hill
Poll suggests GOP lawmakers in New Jersey could be wiped out in November

Every Republican House member from New Jersey is in danger of losing their seat in this year’s midterm election, according to a new Monmouth University poll.

The survey released on Monday finds Democrats with a 19-point advantage statewide on the generic ballot, with 54 percent of respondents saying they plan to or are leaning toward voting for Democrats, compared to only 34 percent for Republicans.

Monmouth pollers say this puts all five of New Jersey's GOP-held seats at risk.

“This is pretty astounding. Not only are New Jersey Democrats doing better on the generic House ballot statewide, but the shift is coming almost entirely from districts currently held by the GOP,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. “If these results hold, we could be down to just one or two — or maybe even zero — Republican members in the state congressional delegation after November.”

The poll notes that in the five districts currently represented by Republicans, 46 percent of voters back the Republican candidate while 44 percent back the Democratic one.

However, in the past two elections, these districts averaged a 22-point advantage for Republicans.
Adding:
NBC News: Poll: Democrats hold 19-point lead on the generic ballot in New Jersey
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Re: Polls 2018

#53

Post by Addie » Tue Apr 17, 2018 4:04 pm

CNBC
A new Pennsylvania poll is filled with bad news for Republicans

A new poll shows warning signs for Republicans in Pennsylvania, one of the states most critical to determining which party controls Congress after November's elections.

With just under seven months until the midterms, Democrats have strong advantages both on the generic congressional ballot in Pennsylvania and in the race to hold on to Democratic Sen. Bob Casey's seat, according to a Muhlenberg College poll. In addition, a majority disapproves of President Donald Trump, and a plurality disapproves of and the Republican tax law. ...

Still, the Pennsylvania survey depicts a challenging environment for Republicans in one of the most important states for its effort to hold on to congressional majorities. ...

Here are some of the findings from the survey, which was taken between April 4 and April 12:
Forty-seven percent of voters surveyed said they would prefer a generic Democrat in their district, compared with 38 percent who would support a Republican. The GOP hopes to stop major Democratic gains in the state as it tries to prevent the minority party from winning the 23 Republican seats it needs to control the House.

Forty-eight percent of respondents said they would support Casey, while 32 percent said they would back Rep. Lou Barletta, the leading Republican candidate in the Senate race. Unseating Casey would help Republicans to hold or expand their narrow 51-seat majority in the Senate. Barletta spokesman David Jackson said the campaign is "very confident that as Lou Barletta is introduced to voters all across Pennsylvania, the ballot test will continue to close until a Barletta victory in November."

Only 39 percent of voters surveyed said they approve of the job Trump has done, compared with a 55 percent majority who said they disapprove. Opinions on a president can often rub off on candidates from the same party.

Thirty-nine percent of respondents approve of the GOP tax law, compared with 46 percent who disapprove of it. Republicans have made the tax overhaul, their signature achievement during the first year of GOP control of Capitol Hill and the White House, a major selling point for the midterms. House Republican leaders believe voters will have a better opinion of the tax policy when they have more time to understand how it will affect their paychecks. National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Jesse Hunt said "tax reform is viewed positively in every competitive district in the country" and contended a Republican rebound in the generic ballot is due to voters seeing the benefits of the tax plan.
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Re: Polls 2018

#54

Post by Addie » Thu May 03, 2018 4:53 pm

Vox
New poll: Democrats have an 8-point generic ballot lead over Republicans in the 2018 midterms

The latest 2018 elections poll is good news for Democrats — if they can keep momentum going until November.

A Monmouth University poll released Thursday shows Democrats have an 8-point lead on the GOP in the generic congressional ballot, a poll question that asks whether people would vote for a Republican or Democrat congressional candidate next year.

If the 2018 election for the House of Representatives was held today, Monmouth found that 49 percent of registered voters said they would either support or lean toward the Democratic candidate in their district, compared to 41 percent who said they would support the Republican candidate.

This is similar to the result Monmouth found two months ago — when 50 percent of registered voters said they’d vote for Democrats, as opposed to the 41 percent who said they’d vote for Republicans.

The current generic ballot polling average from RealClearPolitics, which averages out all recent polls, has Democrats up by 6.7 percent. The generic ballot is a big predictor of which party could win the House in 2018, and both the 7 and 8-point leads from Monmouth and the RealClearPolitics average are good signs for Democrats.
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Re: Polls 2018

#55

Post by Addie » Sun May 27, 2018 8:34 pm

Salon
Outlier poll that showed GOP lead in the race for Congress abruptly shifts back to the Democrats

A poll that helps survey the generic Congressional ballot no longer shows a dramatic lead for the GOP, a drastic shift that will crush conservatives looking for evidence of a feeble blue wave this upcoming November.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll indicated last week that Republicans attained a five-point lead in the ballot, a drastic bump considering Democrats had a plus-three margin in the previous two polls. Right-wing pundits were absolutely giddy over the turn of events, as they shared the new poll on social media to their then-disheartened audience.

That same poll Hannity was referencing released new numbers on Sunday, which now report a seven-point lead for Democrats.

Hannity was not alone in celebrating the previous shift in the generic Congressional ballot, which measures national support for either of the two major parties in the upcoming midterm elections. Supporters of the Republican Party have been whispering for months of a possible let down for Democrats this upcoming fall. They pointed to President Trump's tax cuts and his diplomacy abroad as victories for the administration and the party as a whole.

When the Reuters/Ipsos poll came out last Monday, Fox News pundits were whipped into a frenzy, relieved to see evidence of a GOP comeback.
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Re: Polls 2018

#56

Post by Addie » Tue May 29, 2018 2:28 pm

WaPo - Philip Bump
No, Republicans aren’t ‘taking the lead in polls’

President Trump’s tendency toward misstatement, fudging and outright deception is well-established, and in its most nefarious forms, it tends to focus on untrue accusations against his opponents or those who hold him accountable for his behavior. Over the weekend, for example, he claimed that the New York Times had made up a source for an article — a source who, it was quickly revealed, had spoken to the White House press pool on background.

One of Trump’s most consistent and less important disinformation habits, though, is misrepresenting poll data. During the Republican presidential primary in 2016, he lauded every poll that showed him in the lead. When those polls began to show him trailing Democrat Hillary Clinton and, then, broadly disapproved of by the American public once he took office, his embrace of poll numbers became more selective. By which we mean he selected only those outlier polls that presented him in a favorable light to lift up in his speeches or on Twitter.

On Tuesday morning, though, that habit took on a new challenger: how the Republicans are expected to fare in the 2018 midterm elections.

There’s a lot to parse in this tweet — the investigation by special counsel Robert S. Mueller III is run at all levels by lifelong Republicans, for example — but let’s focus on that bold claim about the polling. Trump is suggesting (although vaguely enough that he can deny it if need be, as is his practice) that Republican performance in midterm polling has prompted Mueller’s team to double down in its efforts to undermine his presidency. Trump’s goal is to continue to cast that investigation as riddled with partisan bias, and he uses that new Republican lead as an exclamation point.

But there is no Republican lead in the polls.
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Re: Polls 2018

#57

Post by Addie » Thu Jun 07, 2018 8:20 am

The Hill
Poll: Dems hold 10-point lead over GOP on generic House ballot

Democrats hold a 10-point lead over the GOP on the generic House ballot, according to a new poll from NBC News and The Wall Street Journal.

The poll, released Thursday, found that 50 percent of respondents said they want Democrats to take control of Congress, compared to the 40 percent who said they want Republicans to maintain control.

The Democrats' lead is 3 points higher than April, when the same poll found 47 percent of voters said they would prefer a Democrat-controlled Congress. Those in favor of GOP leadership held at 40 percent.

The CBS News/YouGov Battleground Tracker poll released Sunday found that control of the House was a toss-up between the two parties.
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Re: Polls 2018

#58

Post by Addie » Thu Jun 07, 2018 7:45 pm

The Hill
Fox News poll gives Dems 9-point edge on generic ballot

Democrats hold a nine-point lead over Republicans on the generic House ballot, according to a Fox News poll released Thursday.

According to the survey, 48 percent of voters preferred the Democratic candidate in their House district, compared to 39 percent who preferred the Republican candidate.

That nine-point lead is up from the five-point lead Democrats held in March, the last time Fox News surveyed voters on the matter. ...

According to the Fox News poll, 72 percent of Democrats said they were either extremely or very interested in the contests. Sixty-three percent of Republicans said the same.

Respondents reported greater trust in Republicans to handle issues related to terrorism, border security and the economy, but Democrats were favored by respondents on issues such as climate change, health care, immigration and judicial nominations.
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Re: Polls 2018

#59

Post by Addie » Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:50 am

Worth reading in full.

Public Policy Polling
Tax Reform Still Not Helping GOP; Dems Lead House Ballot By 6 ...

The Battle for Congress

Democrats continue to have an advantage for this fall’s Congressional elections, leading the generic ballot 46-40. That lead grows to 52-43 among voters who say they’re ‘very excited’ to turn out this year. The brand of Congressional Republicans continues to be pretty abysmal. Only 20% of voters approve of the job Paul Ryan is doing, to 60% who disapprove. And he comes out looking popular compared to Mitch McConnell, who has just a 13% approval rating with 58% of voters disapproving of him. Overall Congress has a 6% approval rating.
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Re: Polls 2018

#60

Post by Addie » Wed Jun 20, 2018 7:44 pm

CNN
CNN Poll: Support for Democrats ticks up and they retain enthusiasm advantage

(CNN)Support for Democratic House candidates has ticked up slightly to 50%, according to a CNN poll conducted by SSRS and released Wednesday.

The percentage of voters who said Democrats when asked which party they'll support in November was up three points since CNN's May poll, and Democrats have a sizable lead among voters who are most enthusiastic about voting. Forty-two percent of registered voters said they'll support the Republican candidate. ...

The survey was conducted between June 14 and June 17, just as the stories of the US government separating children from parents trying to cross the border began to take over political conversations. It suggested wide disapproval of that practice, but a majority of Republicans favored President Trump and the White House in the matter.

The results of the "generic ballot" question had moved in the GOP's favor since early this year -- a 16-point lead for the Democrats in February dropped to a six-point edge a month later and dropped again in May to just three points. It has grown to an eight point lead for Democrats in the June poll, suggesting a slight rebound, with 50% of registered voters picking the Democrat and 42% going for the Republican. ...

Voters who are most enthusiastic about voting are much more pro-Democratic than the larger pool of all registered voters: 55% of them say they will pick the Democratic candidate; 40% choose the Republican in the generic ballot.
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Re: Polls 2018

#61

Post by Addie » Mon Jun 25, 2018 6:47 am

Pew Research Center
Voters More Focused on Control of Congress – and the President – Than in Past Midterms ...

The new survey by Pew Research Center, conducted June 5-12 among 2,002 adults, including 1,608 registered voters, finds that, unlike in recent midterms, voter engagement is high among members of both parties. Overall, 51% of registered voters say they are more enthusiastic about voting than usual, the largest share expressing increased enthusiasm about voting in a congressional election in at least 20 years.

A majority of voters who favor the Democratic candidate in their district (55%) say they are more enthusiastic about voting than usual, up sharply from 2010 and 2014. At about this point in 2006, when Democrats won majorities in both the House and Senate, somewhat fewer voters who backed the Democratic candidate (47%) said they were more enthusiastic about voting.

Yet enthusiasm among Republican voters is almost as high; 50% of voters who prefer the GOP candidate say they are more enthusiastic than usual, which is comparable to the level of Republican enthusiasm in 2014 (45%) and 2010 (55%). And in 2006, just 30% of voters who favored the Republican candidate indicated they were more enthusiastic about voting.

The survey finds that national political factors – views about partisan control of Congress and the president – are more important than in the past. Large majorities of voters who favor the Democratic (73%) and Republican (70%) candidates say the issue of which party controls Congress will be a factor in their vote. Again, the shares in both parties expressing this view are about as high as or higher than in recent midterm elections.
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Re: Polls 2018

#62

Post by Addie » Thu Jul 05, 2018 7:01 am

CNN: Why some polls may be underestimating Democrats
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Re: Polls 2018

#63

Post by Addie » Tue Jul 17, 2018 8:17 pm

Politico
Poll: Corruption message gaining traction against GOP

Trump’s administration scandals threaten to take a toll on Republicans in battleground districts this fall, according to new polling suggesting “culture of corruption” messaging is gaining traction.

Fifty-four percent of voters across 48 Republican-held congressional districts said Republicans were “more corrupt” than Democrats, compared to 46 percent who said Democrats are “more corrupt.”

According to the online survey of 1,200 registered voters, conducted July 2-5, an even higher number of independents hold Republicans responsible for corruption: 60 percent.

Those are welcome numbers to Democrats who have struggled to find their messaging in the run-up to the midterms. In May, the party signaled an effort to tap the “culture of corruption” theme that proved an effective mantra in 2006, when GOP Capitol Hill scandals helped Democrats regain control of the House and Senate.

“The fact that you have these recurring cabinet scandals, the fact that it keeps happening over and over again, it registers,” said Jesse Lee, spokesman for the Center for American Progress, a progressive policy group that was behind the poll. “People understand it’s been taken to a new level. There’s no check on it anymore. Trump isn’t pushing back on Congress to keep it under control. Congress isn’t pushing back on Trump.”
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Re: Polls 2018

#64

Post by Addie » Wed Jul 18, 2018 7:31 pm

The Hill
Pollster: GOP base is shrinking

Pollster Lee Miringoff said on Wednesday that Republicans are in danger ahead of November's midterm elections due to a shrinking base.

"In addition to [President] Trump's approval rating, it's the damaged brand right now, and that's what the Republicans have to worry about," Miringoff, who is the director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, told Hill.TV's Joe Concha on "What America's Thinking."

"The base is shrinking because there are fewer Republicans. So the base is more solid than it was, but there's fewer of them," he said.

The University of Virginia Center for Politics detailed party registration last week and found that there were nearly 12 million more registered Democrats than Republicans across 31 states and the District of Columbia.

The analysis also found that 40 percent of all voters in party registration states are Democrats, while only 29 percent are Republicans.
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Re: Polls 2018

#65

Post by MN-Skeptic » Wed Jul 18, 2018 7:55 pm

And if Republicans are leaving their party, you can pretty much bet that those staying in it are the more radical right, the True Believers, the Fox News diehards. I can't imagine a moderate Republican winning a primary if that is the case.
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Re: Polls 2018

#66

Post by Addie » Tue Jul 24, 2018 2:04 pm

NBC News
Democrats overperforming with the real swing voters: those who disapprove of both parties

President Trump helped win the White House thanks to an overperformance among voters who disliked both Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016.

But ahead of November's midterms, Democrats are the ones cleaning up with this key constituency, data from the latest NBC/WSJ poll shows.

Democrats have a 30-point advantage over Republicans among this constituency on the generic ballot, a stronger lead than Republicans had during each of their midterm wave years of 2010 and 2014. Fifty-five percent of these voters back Democrats, compared to just 25 percent who back Republicans. ...

What’s more in our current poll, these voters disproportionately are down on Trump (68 percent disapprove of his job, versus 52 percent of all voters), and they are enthusiastic about the upcoming midterms (63 percent of them have high interest, versus 55 percent of all voters who say this).

As we wrote about last month, Trump's strength among these voters was one of the clues we missed during the 2016 election. And it was an influential clue, as those voters made up 18 percent of the electorate in the merged NBC/WSJ polls in 2016.
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Re: Polls 2018

#67

Post by Foggy » Tue Jul 24, 2018 2:15 pm

Lest we forget ...

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Re: Polls 2018

#68

Post by Addie » Wed Jul 25, 2018 10:28 am

Rasmussen Reports
Republicans Trail By Wider Margin on Generic Ballot

Democrats have once again widened their lead over Republicans on the latest Rasmussen Reports Generic Congressional Ballot.

The latest telephone and online survey finds that 47% of Likely U.S. Voters would choose the Democratic candidate if the elections for Congress were held today. Forty percent (40%) would opt for the Republican. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and nine percent (9%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

For two weeks in May, the parties were neck and neck on the Generic Ballot, but the Democrats regained their lead in early June and have maintained it since then. Last week, Democrats led by eight, their largest lead since January.

Rasmussen Reports is updating the Generic Congressional Ballot findings weekly on Wednesdays at 8:30 a.m. Eastern until the midterm elections in November.
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Re: Polls 2018

#69

Post by Slim Cognito » Wed Jul 25, 2018 11:30 am

Rasmussen, eh? Trump isn't going to like that.
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Re: Polls 2018

#70

Post by Addie » Wed Jul 25, 2018 12:40 pm

Quinnipiac University
July 25, 2018 - Women Drive Dems To 12-Pt. Lead In U.S. House Races, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Voters Split On Confirming Kavanaugh

With almost 2-1 backing from women, Democrats take a 51 - 39 percent lead in hypothetical races for the U.S. House of Representatives this year, according to a Quinnipiac University National Poll released today.

Women back Democratic candidates 57 - 32 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University National Poll finds. Men are divided with 46 percent going Republican and 44 percent for Democrats. White voters are divided with 46 percent for Democrats and 45 percent for Republicans. Black voters go Democratic 78 - 16 percent and Hispanic voters back Democrats 66 - 23 percent.

The key block of independent voters backs Democratic candidates 50 - 33 percent.

American voters disapprove 66 - 27 percent of the job Republicans in Congress are doing and disapprove of Democrats in Congress 63 - 30 percent. ...

Although the Mid-term elections are more than three months away, Democrats, who are hoping to retake control of the U.S. House of Representatives, will be cheered by their double- digit lead on the so-called generic ballot," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"At this point, American voters are split down the middle on Judge Brett Kavanaugh, President Donald Trump's U.S. Supreme Court pick."
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Re: Polls 2018

#71

Post by Addie » Wed Jul 25, 2018 6:46 pm

NBC News
Polls: Trump approval sags in trio of Midwest states

Democrats also enjoy an advantage on congressional preference in Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota.


WASHINGTON — In three politically important Midwest states — including two that were key in deciding the 2016 election — President Donald Trump’s job approval rating is below 40 percent, and Democrats hold a sizable lead for the upcoming congressional midterms, according to a trio of new NBC News/Marist polls.

In Michigan, which Trump won by nearly 11,000 votes, 36 percent of registered voters approve of the president’s job, while 54 percent disapprove.

In Wisconsin, which he won by about 23,000 votes, another 36 percent give Trump a thumbs up, with 52 percent giving him a thumbs down.

And in Minnesota, which Trump narrowly lost by 1.5 percentage points, his rating stands at 38 percent approve, 51 percent disapprove. ...

Also in the NBC/Marist polls — which were conducted July 15 to July 19, so mostly after Trump’s widely criticized July 16 press conference with Russia’s Vladimir Putin — majorities in all three states say their vote in November will be a message that more Democrats are needed in Congress to be a check and balance on the president.

By contrast, about a third of voters in Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin say their vote will be a message that more Republicans are needed to help President Trump pass his agenda.
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Re: Polls 2018

#72

Post by Addie » Sat Jul 28, 2018 2:05 pm

Newsweek
Trump is Losing Hillary Haters and that Could Cost Republicans the House in Midterms: Poll ...

But with Trump serving as one of the most polarizing leaders in the country’s history, a new poll has indicated the voters who originally picked Trump due to their dislike of Clinton could swing the other way during this fall’s midterm elections.

Fifty-one percent of so-called “Never Hillary” independent voters disapprove of Trump, with 47 percent approving, according to an Axios/Survey Monkey poll released Friday. The online poll drew its results from 52,211 respondents and had a margin-of-error of 1.5 percentage points.

The disapproval for Trump among the group, even if narrow, could be a worrying sign for the president and his party looking ahead to the 2018 midterms. Much, though, will depend on how many of those who disapprove of Trump show up to cast a vote for a Democrat in November. ...

In the 2016 presidential election, 33 percent of the “Never Hillary” group selected Trump, compared to 23 percent who voted for an independent candidate, with 37 percent opting to stay home.
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Re: Polls 2018

#73

Post by Tiredretiredlawyer » Sat Jul 28, 2018 3:55 pm

My sister was in the "Never Hillary" group and now is a 401k Trumper. She is likely to vote against our House Rep because he has been following Trump's policies in lockstep and isn't the moderate he portrayed himself to be. He's also an NRA bot.
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Re: Polls 2018

#74

Post by Addie » Tue Aug 14, 2018 3:16 pm

NAACP - August 7 2018
New Poll: Nation’s Most Competitive Races May Hinge on Trump’s Racism

BALTIMORE – Today, the NAACP released results from a new poll, conducted for the NAACP by the African American Research Collaborative and Latino Decisions, pulling data from voters in 61 of the nation’s most competitive midterm races. The poll analyzed views of African American, White, Latino, Asian American, and Native American voters in these districts, which will ultimately decide which party controls the House.

There is a 13 point advantage for the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate (51% to 38% with 11% undecided) in the House race among all voters, with differences by race/ethnicity.



Trump’s approval numbers are underwater for all voters of color, and for no racial/ethnic group of voters surveyed does he have majority approval.

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Re: Polls 2018

#75

Post by Addie » Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:59 pm

CNN
CNN Poll: Democratic advantage grows in race for Congress

(CNN) Democrats now lead Republicans by 52% to 41% in a nationwide generic Congressional ballot according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS and released Tuesday. The blue lead has increased slightly from eight percentage points in June of this year to an 11 percentage point difference in the most recent poll.

Despite Democrats' advantage on that measure, a plurality (48%) in the same poll believe Republicans will maintain control of Congress after the election, compared with 40% who believe Democrats will gain control.

Among those who favor the Democratic candidate in their district, 64% say they think Democrats will ultimately win control of Congress, while among those backing Republican candidates, 83% think the GOP will maintain control. ...

However, Democrats have taken a much higher leap in enthusiasm vs. 2016 than Republicans. When CNN last asked the question, in September 2016, only 38% of Democrats said they were "more enthusiastic," while 48% of Republicans said the same. Registered Democrats jumped 32-points since 2016 and Republicans moved 20-points. ...

Health care tops the list of important issues voters will consider this fall with 81% saying it's extremely or very important to their vote for Congress, followed very closely by the economy (80%).
Adding:
WaPo: 4 in 10 Republicans think foreign election interference would be a minor problem — or no problem at all ...

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