Polls 2018

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Re: Polls 2018

#26

Post by RoadScholar » Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:53 am

Slim Cognito wrote:
Thu Feb 01, 2018 1:37 pm
And cutting their payroll taxes starting today is going to help them in November. All they have to do is remind voters who put more money in their pocket and we're screwed.
They just need to be reminded they're pocketing their grandchildren's money.


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Re: Polls 2018

#27

Post by RVInit » Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:55 pm

Addie wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:28 am
National Journal - Charlie Cook: The GOP’s Misguided Midterm Optimism
Didn't I hear that the Trump administration has "plans" for the next census? I'm guessing their plans have something to do with making sure the gerrymandering advantage the GOP currently enjoys doesn't end.


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Re: Polls 2018

#28

Post by Slim Cognito » Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:47 pm

RVInit wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:55 pm
Addie wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:28 am
National Journal - Charlie Cook: The GOP’s Misguided Midterm Optimism
Didn't I hear that the Trump administration has "plans" for the next census? I'm guessing their plans have something to do with making sure the gerrymandering advantage the GOP currently enjoys doesn't end.
They're adding a citizenship question, which will keep undocumented persons from responding, thus undercutting their representation.


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Re: Polls 2018

#29

Post by Addie » Fri Feb 09, 2018 1:09 pm

The Hill
Dems lead GOP by 11 on generic midterms ballot

Democrats hold an 11-point lead over Republicans on a generic House ballot, according to a new poll from Marist.

Registered voters favor Democrats over Republicans, 49 percent to 38 percent, according to the generic ballot question, with 5 percent supporting neither party and 8 percent undecided.

Support for Democrats has jumped since last month, as the previous Marist poll showed Democrats with a 6-point edge over Republicans, 46 to 40 percent.

Republicans have seen some good news in polling since December, with some surveys showing them narrowing the gap on the generic ballot question and growing support for the tax-cut bill passed on GOP votes in December.

But the new Marist poll suggests the party remains at a disadvantage headed into the midterm elections this fall.


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Re: Polls 2018

#30

Post by Foggy » Fri Feb 09, 2018 6:05 pm

We need some accurate numbers to adjust the polls for Russian interference.


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Re: Polls 2018

#31

Post by Sterngard Friegen » Fri Feb 09, 2018 6:22 pm

If the Russkies want to engage in maximum interference, this time around they'll fuck with the GOP vote and elect a huge majority of Dems. Think about it.



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Re: Polls 2018

#32

Post by RoadScholar » Fri Feb 09, 2018 6:49 pm

Well, maybe then Congress would take the threat seriously.


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Re: Polls 2018

#33

Post by Suranis » Fri Feb 09, 2018 7:52 pm

You would be AMAAAAAAZED at the amount of evidence that they would find and SUDDENLY they would care about it.


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Re: Polls 2018

#34

Post by Judge Roy Bean » Fri Feb 09, 2018 11:03 pm

Slim Cognito wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:47 pm
:snippity:
They're adding a citizenship question, which will keep undocumented persons from responding, thus undercutting their representation.
But getting undocumented immigrants to participate in the census amplifies progressive political power for sanctuary states where non-enforcement of immigration laws attracts more illegal aliens. You can see why the battle lines are being drawn.


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Re: Polls 2018

#35

Post by Mikedunford » Fri Feb 09, 2018 11:10 pm

Judge Roy Bean wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 11:03 pm
Slim Cognito wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:47 pm
:snippity:
They're adding a citizenship question, which will keep undocumented persons from responding, thus undercutting their representation.
But getting undocumented immigrants to participate in the census amplifies progressive political power for sanctuary states where non-enforcement of immigration laws attracts more illegal aliens. :snippity:
It's rare that you see a single sentence with so many errors and misconceptions.


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Re: Polls 2018

#36

Post by Judge Roy Bean » Fri Feb 09, 2018 11:15 pm

Mikedunford wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 11:10 pm
Judge Roy Bean wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 11:03 pm
Slim Cognito wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:47 pm
:snippity:
They're adding a citizenship question, which will keep undocumented persons from responding, thus undercutting their representation.
But getting undocumented immigrants to participate in the census amplifies progressive political power for sanctuary states where non-enforcement of immigration laws attracts more illegal aliens. :snippity:
It's rare that you see a single sentence with so many errors and misconceptions.
:lol:


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Re: Polls 2018

#37

Post by tek » Sun Feb 11, 2018 7:19 am

Mikedunford wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 11:10 pm

It's rare that you see a single sentence with so many errors and misconceptions.
:like:


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Re: Polls 2018

#38

Post by Addie » Tue Feb 20, 2018 3:22 pm

The Hill

Poll: Dems lead GOP by 15 points in generic House ballot

Democrats hold a 15 percentage point lead over Republicans in a generic House ballot, according to a new Quinnipiac University Poll released Tuesday.

A majority of those polled, 53 percent, said they would like Democrats to win control of the House in this year’s midterm election. Thirty-eight percent said they would like the GOP to keep control of the lower chamber, while nine percent said they did not know or did not provide an answer.

The 53 percent is up from the 49 percent who said earlier this month they would like the Democrats to take control of the House. In that previous survey, 40 percent said they want the Republican Party to win a majority in the lower chamber.

Democrats need to flip 24 seats in in this fall’s midterm elections to take the House.

Nearly half, 47 percent, of independents in the new survey said they would like Democrats to win control of the House, while 36 percent chose the GOP. Sixteen percent said they did now know or did not provide an answer.

By comparison, Democrats currently hold a 7.6 point lead over Republicans in the RealClearPolitics poll average of the generic House ballot.


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Re: Polls 2018

#39

Post by Addie » Mon Feb 26, 2018 1:20 pm

CNN
CNN poll: Democratic advantages grow ahead of 2018 midterms

Washington (CNN)Democrats once again hold a wide advantage in a generic congressional matchup, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS, backed by a base of supporters who are more enthusiastic than Republican partisans and more motivated by core issues.

The poll finds 54% of registered voters say they back a Democrat in their congressional district, 38% say they back a Republican. That's a shift in favor of the Democrats since January, bringing their advantage in a hypothetical generic matchup to about the same level as early 2006, a year in which the party won control of both the House and the Senate.

Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents remain more enthusiastic about voting this fall than Republicans and Republican-leaners. Overall, 51% of that Democratic base say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting in November compared with 41% of the Republican base.

The poll also suggests that the issues on which Republicans have largely pinned their electoral hopes -- the economy, taxes and immigration -- are carrying less weight with voters than are health care and gun policy -- two issues where the Democrats typically have stronger backing from the public overall.

Health care and gun policy are deemed deeply important by about half of voters (53% and 49%, respectively, call them extremely important), while about four in 10 say they are as motivated by the economy (43%) and immigration (38%). Sexual harassment is a sharp motivator for 36% of voters. Taxes, an issue Republicans have said will move voters as they realize the benefits of the tax changes passed last year, is extremely important for 35%. The investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election rounds out the list, with just about a quarter (26%) calling that extremely important to their vote.


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Re: Polls 2018

#40

Post by Addie » Mon Feb 26, 2018 1:30 pm

Associated Press
Americans say Congress is listening to all the wrong people ...

A new poll from the AP-NORC Center found that 85 percent of Americans, including 89 percent of Democrats and 82 percent of Republicans, disapprove of the job Congress is doing. That might matter in this midterm election year, as Republicans defend their majorities in the House and Senate.

In the study by Stanford, UC-Santa Barbara and the AP-NORC Center, which was conducted in 2015 and again in 2017, only about 2 in 10 said they think Congress pays much attention to their own constituents or Americans as a whole, or even give much consideration to the best interests of those people.

Instead, most said Congress does listen to lobbyists, donors and the wealthy.

That's exactly the opposite of the way people think Congress should function, the study found. The highest levels of disapproval came from Americans who felt the largest sense of disconnect between whom they think Congress should listen to and whom they believe Congress actually listens to.


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Re: Polls 2018

#41

Post by Addie » Fri Mar 02, 2018 9:58 am

Salon
Millennials hate Trump, eager to vote in midterms: poll ...

Pew Research Center has labeled Millennials as those born between 1981 and 1996; Gen X as those born between 1965 and 1980; the Baby Boom generation as those born between 1946 and 1965, and the Silent Generation as those born between 1928 and 1945. People born after 1996 are considered "Post-Millennial." Some market research agencies and media outlets have alternately deemed the generation after Millennials "iGeneration" or "Digital Natives," though cultural litigation over their generational designation may take years to definitively settle. Recall that Millennials were, during the 1990s and into the 2000s, often called "Generation Y," as a Newsweek story from 2000 attests.

Nearly half of Millennial registered voters — around 44 percent — describe themselves as independents, Pew Research Center found. "However, a majority of Millennials (59 percent) affiliate with the Democratic Party," the report adds, noting that "just 32 percent identify as Republicans or lean toward the GOP." This is a sharp divergence from older generations whose political identification is more equal across partisan lines. Only the Silent Generation lean more Republican than Democrat.

Some hopeful news: "Millennials’ early interest in this year’s midterms is greater than for the past two congressional elections," the survey reports. "This year, 62 percent of Millennial registered voters say they are looking forward to the midterms; at similar points in 2014 and 2010, fewer Millennials said they were looking forward to the elections (46 percent in 2014, 39 percent in 2010)."

Millennials' party identification as discussed above generally reflects who they plan to vote for in the midterm elections later this year, with 62 percent of Millennials saying they'd vote for the Democrat in their district. While Pew Research Center says Millennial voters usually favor Democrats during midterms, they do so by wider margins this time around. For older generations, not much has changed from past midterms in terms of who they'd vote for or the amount of early interest in the elections.

When it comes to Trump, Millennials are disproportionately not happy with the president's performance compared to older generations. Nearly two-thirds of Millennials (65 percent) disapprove and just 27 percent approve of his time in office. For Gen-Xers, Trump's disapproval number drops to 57 percent; 51 percent of Boomers disapprove and 48 percent of the Silent generation disapprove.


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Re: Polls 2018

#42

Post by Addie » Fri Mar 02, 2018 10:33 am

USA Today
Voters vow to elect a Congress that stands up to Trump, poll shows ...

A new USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll finds voters looking toward the midterm elections are overwhelmingly unhappy with the country's direction, dissatisfied with its political leadership, and interested in electing a Congress that will confront President Trump.

By close to 2-1, 58%-32%, those surveyed say they want to elect a Congress that mostly stands up to the president, not one that mostly cooperates with him.

The level of voter unrest is rare at a time of prosperity, when a 55% majority rate the economy as being in a recovery. Even that assessment has a partisan cast: Republicans are twice as likely as Democrats to say the economy is growing.

Seven in 10 Republicans say the country is headed in the right direction. But more than eight in 10 Democrats say it's off on the wrong track, and seven in 10 independents agree with them. ...

If the election were held today, though, those surveyed say they are more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress than the Republican one by 47%-32% — a yawning 15 percentage-point advantage. Democrats need to flip 24 seats now held by Republicans to gain control of the House of Representatives. Winning control of the Senate is more difficult in a year in which 26 Democratic seats and just eight Republican seats are on the ballot.

"A 15-point lead in the generic ballot — that's a Democratic House, without a doubt," said David Wasserman, an analyst with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. "That would be a big wave."


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Re: Polls 2018

#43

Post by Addie » Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:46 am

Vox
Poll: voters want Democrats to focus on health care if they win in 2020

Guns come in second, and climate change is far behind. ...

Out of all likely voters, 31 percent said they would want Democrats to focus on health care. Guns were the second most cited issue, at 15 percent, followed by immigration (14 percent), deficit reduction (11 percent), and climate change (only 6 percent).

Looking just at self-identified Democrats, the numbers are strikingly similar, with answers more concentrated around health care and guns ...

The polling here was conducted by Civis Analytics, a data science and polling firm formed by veterans of the 2012 Obama campaign, and its senior data scientist, David Shor. Civis conducts polling online; the question asked here reached 921 likely voters on Wednesday, February 28. ...

But Democratic voters, and voters in general, seem very clear in their preference that health care come first. Civis allowed respondents to offer open-ended responses to the question, and found that even some self-described conservative Republicans wanted Democrats to focus on health care. One self-described “somewhat liberal” independent surveyed called for “Healthcare for all with complete coverage including eye care and dental,” while an independent moderate answered “Healthcare ... why are we making cuts when there is a greater need.”

While some Republicans chose health care, as a whole, self-described Republicans were likelier to pick immigration (26 percent) and deficit reduction (19 percent) as important issues to address than they were health care (18 percent). Generally speaking, the more conservative the likely voter surveyed (regardless of party), the likelier they were to focus on immigration and deficit reduction, and the more liberal they got, the likelier they were to choose health care (and, secondarily, guns and climate change)...


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Re: Polls 2018

#44

Post by Addie » Thu Mar 08, 2018 10:57 am

Political Wire
Democrats Regain Their Lead in the Generic Ballot

Philip Bump: “In January, Monmouth gave the Democrats a two-point lead; it’s now nine points. Quinnipiac’s new poll gave the Democrats a 10-point lead, lower than other recent polls from the pollsters but hardly bad news. RealClearPolitics compiles a running daily average of the generic ballot margin. In December, there was a lot of discussion of the sizable lead the Democrats enjoyed which, in January, became talk of how the margin was narrowing. Now it’s widening again, making up nearly half of what was lost from the December peak. The Democratic advantage now stands at 9.1 points.”

Nate Cohn: “There’s nothing new about a short-term swing in the polls that fails to cause a big change in a race. So far this year, just about every big shift in the generic ballot has proved short-lived. Highly sensitive, short-term estimates have misled much more often than they’ve presaged a lasting change.”


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Re: Polls 2018

#45

Post by Addie » Sun Mar 11, 2018 7:32 am

Newsweek - Axios/Survey Monkey polls
What Blue Wave? 5 Democrats Would Lose Senate Seats If 2018 Election Held Today, Poll Shows ...

Many of the seats were previously considered the toughest for Democrats to keep hold of, something viewed as a prerequisite if the party is to have a shot at winning back the Senate. Senator Jon Tester, of Montana, was the most vulnerable, according to the poll, with a 42 percent to 55 percent projected loss to any generic Republican candidate.

Moderate West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin would suffer a projected nine-point loss, while Senator Claire McCaskill, of Missouri, would be knocked out by an eight-point margin by Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley—one of the few confirmed Republican opponents. The losses would not end there for the Democrats. Single-term Senator Joe Donnelly, of Indiana, and North Dakota's Heidi Heitkamp would also find themselves without a job come next year, according to the poll. ...

Trump has appeared to lose support across the country but, in many of the contested Senate seats, his support remains strong. The Republican had a positive net approval rating in 38 states when he entered office almost 14 months ago, according to Morning Consult, although that total has since slipped to 26.

Still, Trump has maintained a positive net approval in Montana, North and South Dakota, Indiana and West Virginia. Potentially taking five more Senate seats would greatly tip the chamber in the GOP’s favor. Republicans currently have a 51-49 advantage, including two independents who caucus with the Democrats.

Talk of a major Democratic tidal wave overtaking the polls in 2018 has flourished since encouraging victories in Alabama and Virginia late last year. However, Texas’s primaries earlier this week showed Republicans still greatly outnumbered Democrats at the polls. Roughly 1.5 million GOP supporters turned out compared to one million Democrats, results that largely reflected elections past.


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Re: Polls 2018

#46

Post by Addie » Sun Mar 18, 2018 9:52 am

NBC News
Democrats hold double-digit lead for 2018 midterm elections

WASHINGTON — Democrats enjoy a 10-point advantage over Republicans in congressional preference for the 2018 midterm elections, even as President Donald Trump's job approval rating has ticked up, the latest national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds.

Fifty percent of registered voters say they prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, while 40 percent want a GOP-controlled one.

That double-digit lead — typically a sign of strong Democratic performance for the upcoming election — is up from the party's 6-point edge in January's NBC/WSJ poll, which was 49 percent to 43 percent, though the change is within the poll's margin of error.



The survey, which was conducted March 10-14, also shows Democrats holding the early enthusiasm advantage: Sixty percent of Democratic voters say they have a high degree of interest in the upcoming elections (registering either a “9” or “10” on a 10-point scale), versus 54 percent of Republicans who say the same thing. In addition, 64 percent of 2016 Clinton voters say they have a high level of interest, compared with 57 percent of 2016 Trump voters.


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Re: Polls 2018

#47

Post by Addie » Thu Mar 29, 2018 2:00 pm

RedState
Trump Effect Over? Republicans getting STOMPED in Pennsylvania Poll

Donald Trump managed to win Pennsylvania in 2016, but buyer’s remorse seems to be setting in as the state turns HARD against Trump and his party.

Pennsylvania voters appear dead set on sending someone to Washington who will oppose the President, and will back that vote by re-electing a Democrat governor, as well.

Franklin & Marshall polled the state. Lou Barletta, Republican for Senate, is getting absolutely destroyed by incumbent Bob Casey Jr, 43-25. Seeing an incumbent at 43 is usually a bad sign for that incumbent, but not so much when he’s up 18 points.

Republicans aren’t doing very well for Governor, either. Laura Ellsworth, Paul Mango, and Scott Wagner all poll at 21 or 22 points to Governor Tom Wolf’s 38-51. Wagner is doing best being down only 17 points (38-21), but Ellsworth and Mango are being crushed 51-22 and 49-22 for 27 and 29 point gaps.


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Re: Polls 2018

#48

Post by Addie » Sat Apr 07, 2018 8:40 am

The Hill
Poll: Voters say health care top issue in midterms

Voters rank health care as the top issue heading into this year’s midterm elections, according to a HuffPost/YouGov poll released Friday.

More registered voters picked health care as the top issue than any other topic when asked to pick their top two issues, the poll found.

Thirty percent of voters picked health care, compared to 25 percent each who said guns and immigration as well as 24 percent who said the economy. Just 12 percent said Donald Trump’s record as president.

Democrats have been touting health care as an issue this year, pointing to Republicans’ push last year to repeal ObamaCare. They have also highlighted what they call the GOP “sabotage” of the health-care law since then — such as repealing the mandate to have insurance — to try to blame Republicans for premium increases expected to be announced this fall.

Republicans have countered by pointing to Democrats’ support for single-payer health care, which they paint as overly expensive government intrusion into health care.


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Re: Polls 2018

#49

Post by Addie » Mon Apr 09, 2018 9:02 am

The Hill
Poll: Dems now lead among older educated white voters

Older, white, educated voters who voted for President Trump in 2016 are now leaning toward Democrats, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released Monday.

White college graduates over the age of 60 now favorite Democrats over Republicans for Congress by a 2-point margin. The same group favored Republicans by 10 percentage points during the same polling period in 2016.

The 12-point swing toward Democrats is one of the largest the Reuters/Ipsos poll has measured over two years.

The trend will likely harm Republican chances of keeping majority in the House during the November midterm elections, analysts said. ...

Health care is the primary concern for this demographic, according to the poll. Twenty-one percent of respondents cited it as their top issue, compared to only 8 percent two years ago.

Older, white, educated voters make up the majority in tight congressional races in New Jersey, Arizona, California, Illinois, Texas and Virginia, Reuters reported.

Older, white voters, regardless of education, are still more likely to vote for Republican candidates. But their support for the GOP has dropped by about 5 percentage points since the first quarter of 2016.
Adding:
Reuters: Exclusive: As elections near, many older, educated, white voters shift away from Trump's party

(Reuters) - Older, white, educated voters helped Donald Trump win the White House in 2016. Now, they are trending toward Democrats in such numbers that their ballots could tip the scales in tight congressional races from New Jersey to California, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll and a data analysis of competitive districts shows.


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Re: Polls 2018

#50

Post by BrianH » Mon Apr 09, 2018 10:49 am

Addie wrote:
Mon Apr 09, 2018 9:02 am
The Hill
Poll: Dems now lead among older educated white voters

* * *

Health care is the primary concern for this demographic, according to the poll. Twenty-one percent of respondents cited it as their top issue, compared to only 8 percent two years ago.
Medicare has long been considered the Third Rail of politics. That Ryan & Co. have been so openly talking about scaling it back or privatizing it (on top of messing with the ACA private plans in ways that jack up rates for older members) has been an eyebrow-raiser. Apparently, stories of scary brown-skinned people invading the country may not fully shield R's from the healthcare impact.



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