Polls 2018

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Addie
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Re: Polls 2018

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Quinnipiac University
August 15, 2018 - Trump Hurts GOP as Dems Hold 9-Pt Lead in House Races, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; U.S. Must Do More on Climate Change, Voters Say 2-1 ...

If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were held today, 51 percent of American voters say they would vote for the Democratic candidate and 42 percent say they would vote Republican. Independent voters go Democratic 50 - 38 percent.

A July 25 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University National Poll showed Democrats ahead 51 - 39 percent, including 50 - 33 percent among independent voters.

Today, voters say 58 - 39 percent that it's important that a candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives share their view of President Trump.

The next Congress should do more to check President Trump, 51 percent of voters say, as 43 percent say the next Congress should do more to help the president.

"A 51 - 42 percent numerical storm cloud looms over the GOP as the Midterm Elections approach. The 9-point differential, if it holds up, could add up to a lot of seats, maybe enough for the Democrats to snatch the House from the Republicans," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
"The very least you can do in your life is to figure out what you hope for." - Barbara Kingsolver

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Re: Polls 2018

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Nothing that can't be changed with a little collusion with the Russians. :-
For more information, read it again.

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bob
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Re: Polls 2018

#78

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538 presently predicts the Democrats have a 73.5% chance of controlling the House next session, with an expected total of 229 seats.
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Re: Polls 2018

#79

Post by verbalobe »

Well worth a look. Interactive map down to individual districts. Lots of data here, nicely presented.

https://www.political-atlas.com/
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Re: Polls 2018

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WaPo
Poll: Democrats regain clear advantage in midterms shaping up as referendum on President Trump

Two months ahead of the midterm elections, Democrats hold a clear advantage over Republicans in congressional vote support, with antipathy toward President Trump fueling Democratic enthusiasm, even among those in the party who stayed home four years ago, a new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds.

The survey also points to broad unrest and frustration with the political system generally. More than 6 in 10 Americans say Trump and the Republican Party are out of touch with most people in the country. While Democrats fare better, a narrower 51 percent majority also judged them out of touch.

Registered voters say they favor the Democratic candidate over the Republican candidate in their district by 52 percent to 38 percent. That is a marked increase from the four-point edge in an April Post-ABC poll but similar to the 12-point advantage Democrats enjoyed in January. ...

Self-identified Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents are slightly more likely than Republicans and Republican-leaning independents to say they are absolutely certain to vote, by 80 percent to 74 percent.

Four years ago, when Republicans made gains in the midterm elections, the GOP enjoyed a 10-point advantage on this question in Post-ABC surveys that fall, 71 percent to 61 percent. The latest survey also asked whether people had voted in 2014, and among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who say they did not, 63 percent say they are absolutely certain to vote in November.
"The very least you can do in your life is to figure out what you hope for." - Barbara Kingsolver

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Re: Polls 2018

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Cross-posting

WaPo - Greg Sargent
The anti-Trump backlash is gathering force. These new polls confirm it.

The anti-Trump backlash is about to collide violently with the GOP’s structural, counter-majoritarian advantages in this election — and the winner of the clash will decide whether President Trump will be subjected to genuine oversight or will effectively be given even freer reign to unleash more corruption and more authoritarianism, while expanding his cruel, ethnonationalist and plutocratic agenda.

Three new polls this morning confirm that this anti-Trump backlash is running strong, with less than two months to go until the midterm elections:
A new Quinnipiac University poll finds that Democrats have opened up a 14-point lead in the battle for the House, 52-38. Voters want Congress to be more of a check on Trump by 58 percent to 27 percent.

A new CNN poll finds that Americans approve of special counsel Robert S. Mueller III’s investigation by 50-38, a new high in CNN polling. By 61-33, Americans say it is examining a “serious matter that should be fully investigated,” as opposed to the “witch hunt” that Trump rage-tweeted about again this morning.

A new NPR/Marist poll finds that Democrats lead by 12 points in the battle for the House, 50-38. Trump’s approval is at 39-52, making this the fifth recent poll to put Trump below 40 percent.
"The very least you can do in your life is to figure out what you hope for." - Barbara Kingsolver

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Re: Polls 2018

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The Hill
Poll: Dems up 12 points ahead of midterms

Democrats hold a 12-point lead over Republicans just more than six weeks ahead of the midterm congressional elections, according to a new poll.

Slightly more than half of registered voters -- 52 percent — said in the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released Sunday that they preferred a Democratic-controlled Congress, compared to 40 percent who want Republicans to retain their majorities in the House and Senate.

NBC News noted that the Democrats’ 12-point lead is their highest this cycle. In August, they held an 8-point lead, 50 to 42 percent.

Voters who are most likely to vote favor Democrats by 8 points in the new survey, 51 to 43 percent.

Pollsters also found that Republicans’ enthusiasm has drawn nearly even with Democrats, with "very interested" registered GOP voters tallying 61 percent compared to Democrats' 65 percent in the poll.

And President Trump’s job rating is essentially unchanged in the new survey, with 44 percent approving of his performance and 52 percent disapproving.

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Re: Polls 2018

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The Hill
Poll: Democrats in position to retake the House

Democrats are in position to retake control of the House of Representatives, according to a new poll ahead of the midterm elections.

The CBS News Battleground Tracker poll released on Sunday found that the Democratic Party would win 224 seats in the lower chamber -- or six more than 218 seats needed for a majority -- if the general election occurred today.

CBS News notes that the Democratic lead has steadily increased over the past few months. The poll released on Sunday represents a two-seat increase for Democrats from August and a five-seat increase from June.

Pollsters noted that voters who supported Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016 are now more unified in supporting Democratic candidates than President Trump's voters are for GOP candidates.

Six percent of Americans who voted for Trump say they will vote Democratic in this election, while just 2 percent of Clinton voters said they would vote for a Republican.

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Re: Polls 2018

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Pew Research Center -
Trump’s International Ratings Remain Low, Especially Among Key Allies

America’s global image plummeted following the election of President Donald Trump, amid widespread opposition to his administration’s policies and a widely shared lack of confidence in his leadership. Now, as the second anniversary of Trump’s election approaches, a new 25-nation Pew Research Center survey finds that Trump’s international image remains poor, while ratings for the United States are much lower than during Barack Obama’s presidency.

The poll also finds that international publics express significant concerns about America’s role in world affairs. Large majorities say the U.S. doesn’t take into account the interests of countries like theirs when making foreign policy decisions. Many believe the U.S. is doing less to help solve major global challenges than it used to. And there are signs that American soft power is waning as well, including the fact that, while the U.S. maintains its reputation for respecting individual liberty, fewer believe this than a decade ago.

Even though America’s image has declined since Trump’s election, on balance the U.S. still receives positive marks – across the 25 nations polled, a median of 50% have a favorable opinion of the U.S., while 43% offer an unfavorable rating. However, a median of only 27% say they have confidence in President Trump to do the right thing in world affairs; 70% lack confidence in him.

Frustrations with the U.S. in the Trump era are particularly common among some of America’s closest allies and partners. In Germany, where just 10% have confidence in Trump, three-in-four people say the U.S. is doing less these days to address global problems, and the share of the public who believe the U.S. respects personal freedoms is down 35 percentage points since 2008. In France, only 9% have confidence in Trump, while 81% think the U.S. doesn’t consider the interests of countries like France when making foreign policy decisions.
Lots of good stuff and graphs at the link.
MAGA - Morons Are Governing America

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Re: Polls 2018

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CNN
CNN poll: Democrats are fired up and maintain a strong 2018 lead

Washington (CNN)Four weeks out from Election Day, Democrats remain well ahead of Republicans in a generic ballot matchup, with 54% of likely voters saying they support the Democrat in their district and 41% backing a Republican, according to a CNN poll conducted by SSRS.

This is the widest margin of support for Democrats in a midterm cycle since 2006, when at this point, the party held a whopping 21-point lead over Republicans among likely voters. That's also when Democrats seized control of the House from Republicans, making Nancy Pelosi speaker

This year, Democrats' enthusiasm about their congressional vote has increased and 62% now say they're extremely or very enthusiastic to vote, up seven points since September among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. Among Republicans and Republican leaning independents, enthusiasm has remained relatively steady, going from 50% in September to 52% in the most recent poll.

Democratic enthusiasm this year is more intense than it has been in previous midterm cycles, which typically engage voters less than presidential years. The 40% who call themselves "extremely enthusiastic" is the highest share to say so in a midterm election cycle since CNN first asked the question in 2009.

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Re: Polls 2018

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The Hill
Poll: Large majority of Americans concerned about election security

A wide majority of Americans are concerned about election security in the United States ahead of next month's midterm elections, according to a new poll.

Almost eight in 10 Americans are at least somewhat concerned about the potential hacking of the nation's voting systems, according to a University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy and Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research survey published Wednesday.

The poll also found that 45 percent of Americans said they are extremely or very concerned about the potential hacking, while only 22 percent said they have little or no concern that the votes will be counted accurately.

Democrats have become increasingly concerned about election security since 2016, when Russian intelligence officers are alleged to have hacked the Democratic National Committee.

According to the survey, 58 percent of Democrats are very concerned about hackers affecting the election, compared to 39 percent of Republicans. Before the 2016 election, Republicans were more concerned about hacking, according to the poll.

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Re: Polls 2018

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WaPo
Nate Silver will make one firm prediction about the midterms. Most journalists won’t want to hear it.

NEW YORK —After the roller-coaster ride of 2016’s election night, have journalists and political junkies learned not to let conventional wisdom substitute for hard knowledge? ...

“Saying it’s all but inevitable should signal it’s at 98 percent, not 80 percent,” which is the reality at the moment, he said.

While it’s quite probable — and has become slightly more likely — that we’ll see a split decision in Congress, there’s a solid chance it doesn’t go that way.

There’s actually a 40 percent chance that both houses of Congress will end up in the hands of one party, Silver said.

That’s partly because, in each case, there’s about a 1-in-5 chance that the less likely outcome will happen: That Republicans will retain the House or that Democrats will win the Senate. (His 40 percent calculation takes into consideration that the House and Senate probabilities are not independent from each other; there’s almost no chance that Democrats will win the Senate but not the House.)

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