Polls 2018

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Polls 2018

#1

Post by Addie » Thu Apr 20, 2017 12:05 pm

Public Policy Polling
Democrats Have Big Enthusiasm Edge for 2018

PPP's newest national poll finds that the Democratic enthusiasm that led to strong finishes in special elections in Georgia and Kansas over the last week is a national phenomenon.

Democrats lead the generic Congressional ballot 47-41. But what's more notable is the enthusiasm imbalance. 63% of Democrats say they're 'very excited' about voting in the 2018 election, compared to only 52% of Republicans who express that sentiment. When you look at the 2018 House picture just among the voters most excited about turning out next year, the lead for Democrats grows to 19 points at 57-38. Republican leaning voters are comparatively disengaged, with the GOP holding advantages only among voters who are 'somewhat excited' (48-40) and 'not that excited' (46-31). ...

Other findings:

-The strong early numbers for Democrats in the 2018 Congressional picture aren't just a function of Trump's unpopularity. Both Paul Ryan (30/53 approval) and Mitch McConnell (24/48) are very unpopular on the national scene as well. Overall Congress has just an 18% approval rating, with 65% of voters disapproving of it. ...

-We tested some early 2020 match ups for President and Trump has deficits of 14 points against Joe Biden (54/40), 9 points against Bernie Sanders (50/41), and 4 points against Elizabeth Warren (46/42). Trump does at least manage ties with Al Franken at 43% and Cory Booker at 42%, although previous polling we've done has found neither of them is universally well known nationally.


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Re: Polls 2018

#2

Post by Addie » Thu Jun 22, 2017 6:25 pm

The Hill
Poll: Half want Dems to control Congress after 2018

Half of Americans say they want Democrats to control Congress after the 2018 midterm elections, according to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released Thursday.

Fifty percent of those surveyed said they want Democrats to control the legislative branch, while 42 percent said they want Republicans to retain control of Congress.

It's the first time either party has reached the 50 percent threshold on the question since 2008, NBC noted.

Republicans have swept four contested House special elections this year, boosting President Trump and congressional Republicans's agenda. Democrats, meanwhile, have seen a surge of candidates running for the House since Trump entered office.


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Re: Polls 2018

#3

Post by listeme » Thu Jun 22, 2017 6:33 pm

Enthusiasm! :boxing: :boxing:

I was going to post that PPP polls article and forgot to.

Now, if we can all just live long enough.


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Re: Polls 2018

#4

Post by Addie » Thu Aug 03, 2017 1:42 pm

The Hill
Dems lead GOP by 14 points in generic House ballot

Democrats are leading Republicans by 14 points in the generic House ballot, according to a new Quinnipiac University Poll released Thursday.

Fifty-two percent of those polled said they would want Democrats to win control of the House if the 2018 midterm elections were held today; 38 percent said they would back Republicans.

Among independents, 48 percent would like Democrats to win the House, while 37 percent picked Republicans.

In the Senate, 53 percent said they would want Democrats to win control of the Senate if the elections were held today, whereas 39 percent said they would like Republicans to win the majority.

Forty-nine percent of independents said they would want Democrats to win the upper chamber majority, while 40 percent chose the GOP.


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Re: Polls 2018

#5

Post by Addie » Thu Sep 07, 2017 12:58 pm

Pew Research Center
Democratic voters are increasingly likely to call their views liberal

Seven months into President Donald Trump’s administration, nearly half of all Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters describe their political views as liberal. The share of Democrats who describe themselves this way has steadily risen and is now 20 percentage points higher than in 2000.

Through the first half of 2017, more Democratic voters identify as liberal (48%) than as moderate (36%) or conservative (15%), based on an average of Pew Research Center surveys. In 2008, 41% of Democratic voters called themselves moderate, while 33% said they were liberal and 23% said they were conservative. And in 2000, Democratic voters who called their views moderate outnumbered liberals by 44% to 28%, while 23% said they were conservative.

White Democrats, in particular, increasingly characterize their political views as liberal, while blacks and Hispanics are far less likely to embrace that description. This year, 55% of white Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters identify themselves as liberal, while 35% describe themselves as moderate and 8% as conservative. The share of white Democrats who identify as liberal is up 27 percentage points since 2000, while the shares describing themselves as moderate or conservative are down 11 points and 13 points, respectively.

By contrast, more black Democratic voters continue to characterize their views as moderate than as liberal. This year, 40% of black Democrats call themselves moderate, 30% say they are conservative and 28% call themselves liberal. Among Hispanic Democratic voters, 36% describe their political views as moderate, 41% as liberal and 22% as conservative.


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Re: Polls 2018

#6

Post by Addie » Thu Sep 28, 2017 3:34 pm

The Hill
Poll: Democrats lead GOP by 11 points in generic Congressional ballot

Democrats lead Republicans by 11 points in a generic congressional ballot, according to a new Public Policy Polling survey released Thursday.

Forty-eight percent of those surveyed by the progressive polling firm said they would vote for a Democrat running for Congress in their district, compared to 37 percent who said they would vote for a Republican.

The poll also found that 76 percent of respondents disapprove of the job Congress is doing. Nine percent said they approve and 16 percent said they were unsure.

Results were heavily split based on who respondents voted for in the 2016 presidential election. Just 11 percent of President Trump voters said they would vote for a Democrat for Congress. Seventy-seven percent said they would vote for a Republican and 16 percent said they were unsure.

Eighty-two person [sic] of Hillary Clinton voters said they would vote for a Democrat for Congress, compared to just six percent who said they’d vote for a Republican and 12 percent said they were unsure.

Among respondents who voted for a third candidate or who did not vote in the 2016 election, 46 percent said they would vote for a Democrat running for Congress in their districts. Twenty-one percent said they would vote for a Republican, and 33 percent said they were undecided.


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Re: Polls 2018

#7

Post by Addie » Tue Oct 17, 2017 11:16 am

Vox
Democrats are leading by double digits in an early 2018 midterm poll

Republicans could be facing a tough election in the 2018 midterms, trailing Democrats by double digits in the generic ballot, according to a new CNN poll.

The poll found 51 percent of voters support the Democratic Party while 37 percent support the GOP on the generic ballot, which asks voters which party they would support but not about specific candidates. The poll was conducted from October 12 to 15 and has a sampling error of 3.5 percentage points.

Republicans are struggling slightly more than Democrats with their own voters. Eighty-eight percent of self-identified Republicans said they’d vote for the Republican candidate and 8 percent said they’d vote for the Democrat, compared to 98 percent of Democrats who said they’d vote for the Democratic candidate.

Of course, the 2018 midterms are still a long way away — but the poll suggests that the GOP might have an uphill battle to hang on to its congressional majorities. Forecasting models suggest that Democrats would have a good chance of retaking the House if they run 5 points ahead of Republicans on the generic ballot.


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Re: Polls 2018

#8

Post by Addie » Mon Nov 06, 2017 10:42 am

WaPo
Post-ABC poll: Voters favor Democrats over Republicans in 2018 House midterms by widest margin in years

Voters say they prefer Democratic candidates for the House of Representatives over Republicans by the widest margin in over a decade, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll — a fresh sign of trouble for the GOP majority one year before the midterm elections.

But Democrats’ effort to convert widespread disapproval of President Trump into victories in 2018 could be undercut by lower turnout, with Republicans expressing just as much motivation to vote in next year’s elections.

A slim 51 percent majority of registered voters say that if the election were held today, they would vote for or lean toward the Democratic candidate in their congressional district, while 40 percent say they would choose the Republican.

That’s the biggest spread in a Post-ABC survey since October 2006, just weeks before a midterm in which Democrats won back control of the House and Senate amid deep dissatisfaction with then-President George W. Bush and the Iraq War.

In recent history, regardless of the political climate, Democrats have tended to hold an advantage on this “generic ballot” question, which does not name specific candidates. On the eve of the 2014 and 2010 midterms, both banner elections for the GOP, Post-ABC surveys found Republicans trailed Democrats by three and five percentage points among registered voters, respectively. Those margins flipped in Republicans’ favor among the smaller population of likely voters who were more motivated to turn out. The latest Post-ABC survey does not measure likely voters given that the election is still a year away.


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Re: Polls 2018

#9

Post by Addie » Thu Nov 23, 2017 8:44 am

US News & World Report
Poll: Democrats Generic Ballot Edge Biggest Since 2006

A growing number of voters say they plan to vote for Democratic candidates over Republicans exactly a year to the day before the November 2018 midterm elections.

Democrats hold an 11-point advantage in the generic congressional ballot, which does not name specific candidates but is considered a strong predictor of the results of upcoming elections, according to a new Washington Post/ABC News poll released Monday.

If the election were held today, 51 percent of registered voters say they would vote for a Democratic candidate over 40 percent who would cast their ballot for a Republican. That gap is the largest lead Democrats have held since October 2006, a month before midterm elections in which they won 31 seats in the House and six seats in the Senate, capturing majorities in both chambers, as well as six gubernatorial races.

Democrats traditionally hold a small advantage in the generic ballot, even in years when Republicans ultimately win more seats. As a result, analysts say they would need to do better than simply come out ahead, but instead would need to win between 5 and 8 points more votes in House races overall to overtake the Republicans' 45-seat majority in the House. Their path is even trickier in the Senate, where Republicans hold a 4-seat advantage, but are defending only 10 seats to the 24 Democratic seats up for grabs.

While the president's party has typically lost seats heading into its first midterm election, a spate of retirements is an indication many Republicans expect 2018 to be a particularly difficult year.


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Re: Polls 2018

#10

Post by Addie » Sun Nov 26, 2017 10:11 am

The Hill
Dem lead in generic ballot polls worries GOP

Republicans head into the holiday season with a daunting number hanging over their heads — 10.7 percent.

Democrats lead their Republican rivals by 10.7 percent on the generic congressional ballot, according to the most recent RealClearPolitics average of available polling data. That mark is the highest the RCP’s average has gone since just before the 2010 elections, where Republicans netted 63 House seats.

It’s a gloomy sign for Republicans, and one that dovetails with President Trump’s sagging approval rating to boost Democratic optimism about taking the House and raises questions about whether Republicans will be able to take advantage of Democratic weakness on the Senate map.

“It’s always stupid to make firm predictions in anything, whether it be politics or the Super Bowl. But it seems clear we are heading in a bad direction” said former Republican National Committee spokesman Doug Heye.


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Re: Polls 2018

#11

Post by Foggy » Sun Nov 26, 2017 12:07 pm

"But it seems clear we are heading in a bad direction” said former Republican National Committee spokesman Doug Heye.
Gosh, Doug, what was your first clue? :lol:


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Re: Polls 2018

#12

Post by Addie » Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:16 pm

The Hill
Poll: Democrats hold double-digit lead in generic ballot

A new poll released Tuesday finds Democrats hold a double-digit advantage over Republicans in generic ballots for both the House and Senate.

A new Quinnipiac University poll finds 50 percent of voters would like to see Democrats win control of the House of Representatives if the 2018 midterms were held today.

Just 36 percent of voters said they would want Republicans to keep control of the House. Thirteen percent of respondents said they were unsure or didn’t provide an answer. Fifty-one percent of voters said they would like to see Democrats win control of the Senate if the election were held today. Thirty-seven percent of voters would like to see Republicans retain control of the Senate and 12 percent of voters said they were unsure or did not answer.

The poll, which comes after Senate Republicans passed a sweeping tax reform bill last week, also found that 53 percent of voters disapprove of the bill, while just 29 percent approve of it.


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Re: Polls 2018

#13

Post by Addie » Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:12 am

Des Moines Register
Iowa Poll: Iowans favor Democrats for Congress in 2018

Iowans favor electing Democrats to Congress over Republicans, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.

Forty percent of Iowa Poll respondents say they would vote for a Democrat if congressional elections were held today, compared to 34 percent who say they would back a Republican.

The finding is notable because Republicans hold three of Iowa’s four congressional seats, including two seen as among the most competitive in the country in 2018.

The results of a so-called “generic ballot” question provide insight into how Iowans’ views have shifted after voting heavily in favor of Republican Donald Trump in 2016, said Nathan Gonzales, an elections forecaster and publisher of the nonpartisan Inside Elections newsletter.

“It sounds like voters are more skeptical about Republicans going into the 2018 elections,” he said.

Democrats are favored among women, all age groups, those earning under $70,000 and people living in cities and towns. A narrow plurality of 31 percent of independents say they would back a Democrat, compared with 28 percent who say they’d vote Republican.


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Re: Polls 2018

#14

Post by RVInit » Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:35 pm

Addie wrote:
Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:12 am
Des Moines Register
Iowa Poll: Iowans favor Democrats for Congress in 2018

Iowans favor electing Democrats to Congress over Republicans, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.

Forty percent of Iowa Poll respondents say they would vote for a Democrat if congressional elections were held today, compared to 34 percent who say they would back a Republican.

The finding is notable because Republicans hold three of Iowa’s four congressional seats, including two seen as among the most competitive in the country in 2018.

The results of a so-called “generic ballot” question provide insight into how Iowans’ views have shifted after voting heavily in favor of Republican Donald Trump in 2016, said Nathan Gonzales, an elections forecaster and publisher of the nonpartisan Inside Elections newsletter.

“It sounds like voters are more skeptical about Republicans going into the 2018 elections,” he said.

Democrats are favored among women, all age groups, those earning under $70,000 and people living in cities and towns. A narrow plurality of 31 percent of independents say they would back a Democrat, compared with 28 percent who say they’d vote Republican.
I don't have time to dig into the studies right now, but there have been lots of studies related to social influence and/or collective dynamics in forming and changing opinions. The general gist of it is that there is a healthy amount of research showing that not only do people give credence to others that are perceived as being an expert, but also majority opinion also can have an effect.

I hope the media will repeat often with lots of stories and examples where the majority no longer support Trump and the majority no longer support Republican candidates. Repeat, repeat, repeat.


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Re: Polls 2018

#15

Post by Addie » Sun Dec 17, 2017 11:51 am

The Hill
Poll: Half of voters want Democrats to control Congress ...

The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll released Sunday finds 50 percent of registered voters say they want a Democratic-controlled Congress, compared to 39 percent who want Republicans in control.

Democrats hold a massive advantage among voters ages 18 to 34 in the poll, with 69 percent of those voters saying they prefer Democrats in control of Congress versus 21 percent who prefer Republicans. They also hold double-digit advantages among female voters, 54 percent to 34 percent, and independent voters, 43 percent to 31 percent percent.

Meanwhile, Republicans hold just a 2 point advantage among white voters, with 46 percent saying they prefer a Republican-controlled Congress compared to 44 percent who want Democrats in power.

NBC reports it’s the first time since 2008 that Democrats have held a double-digit lead and captured 50 percent of registered voters with a preference for a Democratic Congress in the NBC/WSJ poll.

Democrats also hold an advantage among voters who describe themselves as having a “high level of interest” in the 2018 midterm elections, according to the poll, with 59 percent of Democratic voters saying they have a high level of interest versus 49 percent of Republican voters.


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Re: Polls 2018

#16

Post by Addie » Wed Dec 20, 2017 3:28 pm

Political Wire
Democrats Open Huge Lead In Generic Ballot

A new CNN poll finds that 56% of voters say they favor a Democrat in their congressional district, while 38% prefer a Republican.

“That 18-point edge is the widest Democrats have held in CNN polling on the 2018 contests, and the largest at this point in midterm election cycles dating back two decades.”


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Re: Polls 2018

#17

Post by Sterngard Friegen » Wed Dec 20, 2017 3:40 pm

Gerrymandering and the poor GOTV of Democrats during off years are working against that 56%. Get it up to 62%+ and then we're talking.



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Re: Polls 2018

#18

Post by Addie » Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:05 am

WaPo
Women and independents drive advantage for Democrats ahead of midterm elections, Post-ABC poll finds

Strong support from women and independents is fueling Democrats’ large early advantage ahead of this year’s congressional elections, a sign that two groups that have recoiled from Donald Trump’s presidency will play a decisive role in November, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

The ongoing government shutdown and rising economic optimism are just two factors that could shuffle preferences over the nine months before Election Day, with Republicans hoping to take more credit for economic growth and cast Democrats as anti-Trump obstructionists.

By 51 percent to 39 percent, more registered voters say they would support the Democratic candidate in their congressional district over the Republican. Democrats’ 12 percentage-point advantage on this “generic ballot” question is the largest in Post-ABC polling since 2006, although it is slightly larger than other polls this month.

Judging from past elections, Democrats are expected to need a six- to eight-point advantage in national support this fall to gain the 24 seats needed win control of the House. Election handicappers say a Democratic takeover is possible, but not yet likely. Democrats would fall five seats short even if they won all contests the Cook Political Report classifies as solidly Democratic, leaning Democratic or toss-ups.
Adding:
ABC News: Democrats solidify their lead in midterm elections matchup


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Re: Polls 2018

#19

Post by Addie » Tue Jan 23, 2018 11:48 am

Public Policy Polling
Democrats Have Edge, Energy in North Carolina For 2018

PPP’s newest North Carolina poll finds that Democrats lead the generic legislative ballot 46-41 for this fall. Among voters who are ‘very excited’ about voting in this year’s election- which could be a low turnout affair with no Senate or Gubernatorial race at the top of the ballot- the Democratic edge expands to 13 points at 53/40.

The strong position for Democrats is a function of voters being happy with their Democratic Governor and unhappy with their Republican President. 49% of voters approve of the job Roy Cooper is doing to 33% who disapprove. Cooper is actually more popular than he was at this time a year ago when he had a 45/34 approval spread. That’s a big contrast with how his two predecessors fared in their first years in office. Pat McCrory had a 37/47 approval rating in January of 2014 and Bev Perdue had a 30/48 approval rating in January of 2010.

Voters are not happy with the General Assembly. Only 19% approve of the job it’s doing to 51% who disapprove. The Democrats in the legislature aren’t popular, with 39% of voters approving of the job they’re doing to 45% who disapprove. But they’re a lot better off than the Republicans who have only a 35% approval rating with 51% of voters disapproving of them. There’s 59/15 support for nonpartisan redistricting with independents (69/12), Democrats (62/12), and Republicans (45/21) all in favor of it.

While North Carolinians are happy with their Governor, they aren’t happy with their President. Only 42% of voters approve of the job Donald Trump is doing, to 50% who disapprove. Voters blame Trump and the Republicans in Congress over the Democrats in Congress 48/43 when it comes to the government shutdown. 64% of voters in the state support DACA to only 25% who oppose it- that includes 82% of Democrats, 61% of independents, and even 43% of Republicans.


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Re: Polls 2018

#20

Post by Sterngard Friegen » Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:19 pm

And the Democrats in North Carolina have . . . Foogie!



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Re: Polls 2018

#21

Post by Addie » Wed Jan 24, 2018 3:12 pm

The Hill
Dems lead GOP by 13 points in generic House ballot: poll

Democrats are leading Republicans by 13 points on a generic House ballot ahead of the 2018 midterm elections, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll.

The poll found that 51 percent of voters said they want to see the Democratic Party gain control of the House of Representatives in the November midterms, while 38 percent of those polled said they wanted to see Republicans maintain control of the lower chamber.

The poll also found that 46 percent of independent voters wanted to see Democrats control the House, while 35 percent of independents said they wanted to see Republicans in control.

Additional surveys show Democrats holding leads over their Republican counterparts as well.

A Washington Post/ABC News poll released this week showed Democrats with a 51-percent lead over Republicans, while 39 percent of voters said they would support Republicans on a generic ballot.


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Re: Polls 2018

#22

Post by Addie » Thu Feb 01, 2018 1:17 pm

The Hill
Poll: Democratic lead narrows on 2018 generic ballot

The Democratic lead going into the November midterm elections has narrowed, according to a new CNN poll.

Democrats now hold a 5-point lead over Republicans, with 49 percent of registered voters saying they would support Democrats on a generic congressional ballot and 44 percent of voters saying they would support Republicans.

Democrats held double-digit leads over Republicans in polls conducted last year by CNN.

Democrats, for example, held an 18-point lead over Republicans in December, with 56 percent of voters saying they would pick the Democratic candidate on a ballot and 38 percent saying they would go for the Republican.


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Re: Polls 2018

#23

Post by RVInit » Thu Feb 01, 2018 1:21 pm

Addie wrote:
Thu Feb 01, 2018 1:17 pm
The Hill
Poll: Democratic lead narrows on 2018 generic ballot

The Democratic lead going into the November midterm elections has narrowed, according to a new CNN poll.

Democrats now hold a 5-point lead over Republicans, with 49 percent of registered voters saying they would support Democrats on a generic congressional ballot and 44 percent of voters saying they would support Republicans.

Democrats held double-digit leads over Republicans in polls conducted last year by CNN.

Democrats, for example, held an 18-point lead over Republicans in December, with 56 percent of voters saying they would pick the Democratic candidate on a ballot and 38 percent saying they would go for the Republican.
Of course it did. Republicans have a two part strategy for maintaining control and it works. And it will continue to work. And Democrats are hard pressed to come up with any effective strategy to counter it because truth and being responsible is just not as sexy as tax cuts and war.


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Re: Polls 2018

#24

Post by Slim Cognito » Thu Feb 01, 2018 1:37 pm

And cutting their payroll taxes starting today is going to help them in November. All they have to do is remind voters who put more money in their pocket and we're screwed.


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Re: Polls 2018

#25

Post by Addie » Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:28 am

National Journal - Charlie Cook: The GOP’s Misguided Midterm Optimism


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