The Blue Wave

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Dan1100
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Re: The Blue Wave

#76

Post by Dan1100 » Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:41 pm

It is intentional "packing and cracking."

St. Louis is a good example. Black Democrat Lacey Clay wins by over 80% because they "pack" all the Democrats into the First District. Then, rather than having 2 more competitive St. Louis Districts, they "crack" two pieces of the St. Louis metro area suburbs 2 make 2 mostly rural Republican Districts. Then they take what's left of the Metro area and make a Republican District.

Look at the second map on this page. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/201 ... tions.html Mouse over and see how they made what should have been 2 Democrats and 1 Republican into 1 Democrat and 3 Republicans.
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Re: The Blue Wave

#77

Post by Mikedunford » Fri Nov 09, 2018 4:51 am

Sam the Centipede wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:14 pm
Danraft wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 8:33 pm
Fully agree with the overall statement that, by straight popular vote, the Dem's would do better than with current districts. That being said, it is hard to NOT gerrymander districts when starting over after each census.

A state gains or loses based on population and the districts are supposed to, as practically possible, have the same number of population based on the census.
No dan, what you wrote is incorrect. Gerrymandering is the deliberate drawing of unnatural electoral boundaries so as to advantage one party over others. It is not the seeming unfairness of using old population data or the general imperfections of an electoral system.

As Foggy's post illustrates, the most obvious sign of this is usually that the party doing the gerrymandering requires many fewer votes per elected representative than the disadvantaged party. Anf the evidence that this is deliberate is the clearly unnatural shapes of the districts, designed to corral as many Democratic voters as possible into a few districts so those are super-safe for the Democrats, with effectively many "wasted" votes, whereas the Republican votes are spread to give small majorities in many districts.

All electoral systems everywhere are imperfect in different ways. But that is distinct from dishonest manipulation of those systems.
:yeah: :yeah:

If you want a good example of a gerrymandered district, look at TX-35. That one includes a chunk of San Antonio and a chunk of Austin, connected - because districts must be "contiguous" by a narrow strip that runs up I-35. That creates a district that's about 70%-75% Democratic.

You see, the way it works is that you pack as many of the other side's voters into as few districts as possible. This creates some ultra-safe seats for them, but it creates many more relatively safe (~10%) seats for you.

Along the way it deprives everyone of the chance to have a representative who is representative of the region, because the process doesn't take anything but voting into account, so you get districts that don't align with geography in any meaningful way.
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Re: The Blue Wave

#78

Post by Mr Brolin » Fri Nov 09, 2018 5:59 am

@Danraft

"Gerrymandering" is a deliberate, intentional and focussed act or set of activities undertaken with the sole intent of manipulating voter political representation.

It is immoral, unethical but alas rarely visibly illegal and in conjunction with voter suppression activities is a political partisan activity.

It is NOT an inherent output from redistricting, it is a manipulated outcome.

Whilst, in the USA it is a tactic used by BOTH parties, it has, in general been seem more prevalently and shamelessly in Republican held states.

A slightly curious statistical bent appears to show the tactics between the D's and R's differ somewhat

D's tend to draw districts that incorporate but deliberately dilute Republican vote share. This tends to more D wins but with smaller majorities that in well funded, competitive races can backfire whilst

R's tend to pack smaller numbers of districts with overwhelmingly likely Democratic voters and vastly more seemingly 'competitive' but in reality, highly partisan, smaller in overall R majority voter number but more likely to vote Republican party voters. This tends to a few almost guaranteed D seats but even in competitive races leads to a likely greater number of R seats.

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Re: The Blue Wave

#79

Post by Foggy » Fri Nov 09, 2018 8:41 am

I gives you this from Monika Bauerlein, CEO of Mother Jones
Americans elected more than 100 women to the House of Representatives, including the first two Muslim women and the first two Native American women. First-time candidates unseated decadeslong incumbents; candidates of color broke through in majority-white districts; a gay man was elected governor without anyone even making a big deal of it; and a broad spectrum of voters, left to right, voted to expand fundamental rights—to voting, and to health coverage—in state after state.

This is not the kind of thing you see in a country destined to slide into authoritarianism. It’s a proof of concept for a more resilient and more inclusive democracy. And it’s a demonstration that lies and demagoguery can only go so far.
It wasn't a perfect outcome. It wasn't the outcome I wanted to see.

But by god, we took a step forward instead of a step back. And I'm going to hold out hope that we'll see a leap forward in 2020.

It hasn't all shaken out yet. I'm still hoping to see some improvement in what we already know, like Sinema, Gillum, Nelson and some others. But what happened is indelible and irrefutable and powerful as hell. We finally took a step - maybe a huge step - FORWARD.

'Course, that don't mean I quit resisting and persisting. We still gotta fight.

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Re: The Blue Wave

#80

Post by Tiredretiredlawyer » Fri Nov 09, 2018 8:52 am

:like: :stamp: :flag: :cheer1: :cheer: :happydance: :thankyou: :banana: :fiesta:
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Re: The Blue Wave

#81

Post by Addie » Fri Nov 09, 2018 12:46 pm

WaPo - Jennifer Rubin
Three days later: Hey, Republicans really did get clobbered

It turns out the 2018 midterm elections were pretty much a rout. Counting all the votes makes all the difference in the world.

In the House, as of this writing, the Democratic gains are up to 30 with about five more races still to be called — in which Democrats are leading. A gain of 35 seats would be the largest House pickup for Democrats since the first post-Watergate midterm election in 1974.

The Democrats picked up seven governorships, with Stacey Abrams, as of now, still fighting to make it to a runoff in Georgia, and Andrew Gillum trailing by 0.4 percentage points, enough to trigger a recount in Florida.

In the Senate, Democrats may not quite have pulled off an inside straight, but they had two aces — in Nevada and Arizona. With 26 seats to defend, many in red states, it now looks as if their losses will be small. Democrats won in Nevada and are now poised to pick up a seat in Arizona. In the latter, Rep. Krysten Sinema surged into the lead as additional Maricopa County ballots were counted.)

Meanwhile, Democrats have an outside chance to hold on to Florida. There, Republican Gov. Rick Scott leads by only 0.2 percentage points over Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson. If Sinema and Nelson win, Republicans, in a year with the most favorable map in recent history, would pick up only a net of one seat (52 to 48); if Sinema wins but Nelson doesn’t, Republicans would only eke out a net gain of two seats (53 to 47). That’s simply remarkable considering they had to defend incumbents in the following in states President Trump won, in some cases by double digits: Indiana, Ohio, Wisconsin, Montana, Florida, Michigan, Missouri, West Virginia, Pennsylvania and North Dakota. As conservative Quin Hillyer put it, one would reasonably expect “Republicans on this map, in this economy . . . [to gain] at least five seats, with six or seven more likely than three or four.”

Simply because Trump did not see all these losses on Election Night does not make them any less real or consequential for Republicans. Put differently, outside the deepest-red enclaves Republicans took a beating up and down the ballot.

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Re: The Blue Wave

#82

Post by Foggy » Fri Nov 09, 2018 2:08 pm

... and the cake baker in Colorado who wouldn't bake a cake for a gay wedding?

He has a gay governor today. :mrgreen:
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Re: The Blue Wave

#83

Post by NMgirl » Fri Nov 09, 2018 6:35 pm

Foggy wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 2:08 pm
... and the cake baker in Colorado who wouldn't bake a cake for a gay wedding?

He has a gay governor today. :mrgreen:
And that county clerk in Kentucky, Kim Davis, who refused to perform gay marriages? Ousted by a gay guy. :fiesta:
Stern: Come back. My posts are becoming sloppy and ill-thought out.

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bob
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Re: The Blue Wave

#84

Post by bob » Fri Nov 09, 2018 6:41 pm

NMgirl wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 6:35 pm
And that county clerk in Kentucky, Kim Davis, who refused to perform gay marriages? Ousted by a gay guy.
She was ousted, but the victor isn't gay.
Imagex6 Imagex2 Imagex4 Imagex2

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Re: The Blue Wave

#85

Post by pipistrelle » Fri Nov 09, 2018 6:58 pm

bob wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 6:41 pm
NMgirl wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 6:35 pm
And that county clerk in Kentucky, Kim Davis, who refused to perform gay marriages? Ousted by a gay guy.
She was ousted, but the victor isn't gay.
No, but I'd vote for him for president!
I have tried to focus on those issues and strike a tone of unity among all citizens of Rowan County, regardless of the details of their personal lives. That is, in my opinion, what public service is all about.

I have repeated time and again that I would serve every citizen of this county equally, in every aspect of the duties and responsibilities of the office of County Clerk. And now—on my own terms, and not bowing to the demands of irrational bullies—I would like to address the issue at hand more specifically:
When I say I will faithfully execute the job of Rowan County Clerk and serve all citizens equally. Of course that means LGBTQ+ citizens. I support every American’s right to “life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness,” afforded them under the laws of our nation, and I do not believe our government should discriminate against anyone for being who they are.

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Danraft
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Re: The Blue Wave

#86

Post by Danraft » Fri Nov 09, 2018 7:25 pm

► Show Spoiler
Sam, I still stand by the above, so here's a slightly different wording. Your emphasis on deliberate isn't counter my statement.

Every Constitutionally mandated 10 year census, congressional districts are re-drawn.

The drawn lines stay that way until the next census(barring court intervention), and may stay similar to the previously drawn districts.

Since the districts are, for reasons of equity, supposed to be equal in population, just using county lines or some more geographically easy method just doesn't work.
The population densities are wildly different and keeping reasonable shapes is hard as hell. Image
I'm talking about some cute graphic representation video with red and blue equally sized squares, but maps that if population/ sq mile we're topologically represented the landscape is ruggedly mountainous.
Image
Ideally, the voters grouped together would have similar interest and concerns to make their voice more effective but that concern takes a distant back seat to a politicians battling for party supremacy.

A two party system, particularly with the disappointing fact that elected politicians are more loyal to their party than their constituents, makes the battle during districting solely about party supremacy (equality) restrained only by the equal population guidelines.

The needs of the citizens are not considered and because they don't say a damn thing, each ten years the gerrymandered maps get worse than the salamander shaped district for which the term is named. Image

With computer modeling and detailed voter and demographic information, the GOP nailed the last 2010 census with an organized effort to control state level districting(2020 coming soon) But remember that there are not an equal number of Dem's and Rep's in each state in any case, So, most Popular Vote vs gerrymandered districts are flawed in the basic assumptions.

This districting uses census data at that snapshot of regional population density each side comes armed with their demographic data and the arm wrestling begins. But, that census snapshot isn't static. A savvy partisan negotiator could plan to take advantage of areas that are rapidly changing in population and/or demographics.

So. Yes, if you or I sat down and free handed maps complaints of inequality would arise.
C'est la vie, and yes, the existence of the ten year census for representation in the house and the state allocation of 2 senators is arguably awareness of desire for equal representation but accepting that unequal representation can be used as a bargaining tool.

In college poly-sci, my daughter's study group examined an array of districting methods. I remember looking as a map drawn by using Income Dollars per square mile instead of population since dollars have freedom of speech.

This is one of the first US election maps.
Image
The Mercury Project

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Re: The Blue Wave

#87

Post by Dolly » Fri Nov 09, 2018 10:33 pm

The images at the link are "interactive" and I can't copy/paste them here. They don't show up using ARCHIVE. There is a image for each section of text below.

Sizing Up the 2018 Blue Wave

Democrats made sizable gains in Tuesday’s elections for the U.S. House of Representatives. They won 222 seats to Republicans’ 196.
Each dot on the map represents a house district, colored by the winning party. Analysis is based on results as of 9:30 a.m. Wednesday.


Midterm elections are often a referendum on the president’s party. While dozens of districts became more red …
Arrows show House districts that voted more Republican compared with 2016.


… the overwhelming trend on Tuesday was a blue shift: 317 districts swung to the left.
Arrows show House districts that voted more Democratic compared with 2016.


Only 30 of those districts actually flipped from Republican to Democratic. Most of these were in the suburbs, shown as larger dots on this map.


The districts that flipped to Democrats had an average shift of 21 percentage points.
Each arrow represents a House district that flipped from Republican to Democratic and how much more Democratic it voted compared with 2016.


But the swing districts don’t tell the whole story — they represent the crest of the wave. The average district nationwide moved 10 percentage points to the left this year.
Each line represents a House district and shows how much more Democratic or Republican the district voted compared with 2016, colored by the party that won the seat.


Districts where Republicans won, shown here, were caught in the wave as well — 171 of them moved to the left.


So how big was the blue wave?
Over all, 2018’s shift to the left was smaller than the one in 2006, the last time the Democrats flipped the House. And it was half the size of the most recent Republican wave in 2010 when districts shifted more than 19 points to the right.


<Note: Shifts do not include districts in Pennsylvania because of redistricting. | Sources: Election results and race calls from The Associated Press. Demographic data from Social Explorer.>
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/201 ... &smtyp=cur
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Re: The Blue Wave

#88

Post by Addie » Sat Nov 10, 2018 7:51 am

WaPo - Dan Balz and Michael Scherer
For Democrats, a midterm election that keeps on giving

In the early hours of election night on Tuesday, a consensus began to take hold that the vaunted Democratic blue wave that had been talked about all year was failing to materialize. Now, with a handful of races still to be called, it’s clear that an anti-President Trump force hit the country with considerable, if uneven, strength.

Democrats appear poised to pick up between 35 and 40 seats in the House, once the last races are tallied, according to strategists in both parties. That would represent the biggest Democratic gain in the House since the post-Watergate election of 1974, when the party picked up 49 seats three months after Richard M. Nixon resigned the presidency.

Republicans will gain seats in the Senate, but with races in Florida and Arizona still to be called, their pre-election majority of 51 seats will end up as low as 52 or as high as 54. Meanwhile, Democrats gained seven governorships, recouping in part losses sustained in 2010 and 2014, and picked up hundreds of state legislative seats, where they had suffered a virtual wipeout in the previous two midterm elections. ...

Day by day, the outlook for Democrats in the House has improved. At the offices of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, already high spirits have been rising all week as more races fell into the party’s column. One joke that has been making the rounds there goes like this: “This is actually turning out to be more of a Hanukkah than a Christmas election,” meaning day after day of gifts, rather than just one.

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Re: The Blue Wave

#89

Post by Whatever4 » Sat Nov 10, 2018 11:22 am

"[Moderate] doesn't mean you don't have views. It just means your views aren't predictable ideologically one way or the other, and you're trying to follow the facts where they lead and reach your own conclusions."
-- Sen. King (I-ME)

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Re: The Blue Wave

#90

Post by Kendra » Sat Nov 10, 2018 11:26 am

Whatever4 wrote:
Sat Nov 10, 2018 11:22 am
https://twitter. com/reidepstein/status/1060977811584962560?s=21
:thumbs:

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Re: The Blue Wave

#91

Post by Addie » Sat Nov 10, 2018 1:26 pm

New York Times - Timothy Egan
Good News: Democracy Has a Pulse

We avoided Midnight in America. The president concocted a frightscape, the caravan from hell ready to storm our white picket fences, the military deployed as a political stunt, the Constitution inches from the shredder.

By any measure, the election was a referendum on our sickly, staggering democracy. Nearly 70 percent of Americans believe President Trump has damaged the dignity of the presidency, and only half have faith in our system of self-government.

But I’m here to bring you some good news, folks: It will take at least one more election cycle, but the enemies of progress are headed back to history’s basement. And democracy, after a surge of voters who had checked out of their role in the governing part, has a pulse.

One-party rule is over. The Democrats are on pace to win the overall popular vote — that is, the total tally cast in House races — by about seven percentage points. They lost it by a point in 2016, and six points in 2014. People under 30 favored the insurgents by about 35 points. Independents, our fastest-growing segment of voters, broke big for the Dems as well. They may not love the party, but they want a check on the runaway presidency.

Equally significant: Progressive and common-sensical treatment of fellow Americans won at the polls. Medicaid was expanded by vote of the people in Idaho, Nebraska and Utah. These deep-red states will now join 33 others in the forward march of Obamacare.

It will be a while before nearly every Republican stands up in Congress and proudly votes to take away someone’s health care or strips protections for pre-existing conditions. That argument is over.

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Re: The Blue Wave

#92

Post by Addie » Tue Nov 13, 2018 9:44 am

Politico Mag
How Democrats Won Over Older Voters—And Flipped the House

Democrats were victorious because they fought Republicans to a draw among Americans age 50 and up. How they did that is the story of the 2018 election. ...


The main reason for Democrats’ electoral success this year with older Americans is that in 2018, Democratic candidates stopped seeing health care as a liability and began seeing it as a political weapon.

An analysis of House and Senate campaign ads by the Wesleyan Media Project found that from Sept. 18 to Oct. 15, 2018, a full 54.5 percent of all ads for Democratic House and Senate candidates discussed health care, while only 31.5 percent of pro-Republican ads did the same. It’s a striking reversal from the four election cycles since the 2010 passage of the Affordable Care Act—four elections in which no more than 10 percent of Democratic ads mentioned health care and during which Republicans were several times more likely to discuss the issue.

Health care was the single-most-discussed issue in political ads in 2018. Of the more than 3 million election ads that ran on TV this cycle, at least 1.2 million mentioned health care, according to an analysis by Bloomberg News based on data from Kantar Media/CMAG. Nearly three-fourths of those ads were paid for by Democrats and Democratic-aligned groups. And many of those were aimed squarely at voters over 50—and weren’t particularly subtle about that fact. ...

It was one of the most reliable arrows in the Democratic quiver this year, a reference to a provision of House Republicans’ health care legislation that would’ve allowed insurers to charge Americans over age 50 up to five times more for health insurance than younger people. In races from upstate New York to the Arizona-Mexico border to Cedar Rapids, Iowa to the suburbs of Richmond, Va., Democratic challengers flipped GOP-held House seats while running ads accusing Republicans of supporting this so-called Age Tax, using a term popularized by the political arm of the AARP. (AARP underwrites POLITICO Magazine’s reported series, “The Deciders.”)
Adding:
Independent: Midterms: Late results reveal Democrats 'blue wave' as party secures best election performance since 1974

'Over the last week we’ve moved from relief at winning the House to rejoicing at a genuine wave of diverse, progressive and inspiring Democrats winning office'

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Re: The Blue Wave

#93

Post by TollandRCR » Tue Nov 13, 2018 10:19 pm

Several analysts, including a recent Slate writer, are arguing that the Democrats did indeed have a significant Blue Wave in 2018. In fact, the base of support for the Republican Party has shifted from the suburbs to rural areas. I agree with these analysts. Good job!
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Re: The Blue Wave

#94

Post by Orlylicious » Tue Nov 13, 2018 10:36 pm

Weve been in the best mood since Election Day. This was my reaction the next morning and just got happier. Couldn't understand people who weren't thrilled with the House result alone but seeing how big the wave is hopefully gets everybody on board for 2020! Thank you again Nancy Pelosi, the only Leader who can stand up to Donald!
Orlylicious wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 6:05 pm
We are happy, happy, happy! After 8 long years we have the House and a seat at the table again! Thank you Nancy Pelosi, she raised over $170 million for Democrats and has now won the House back... twice! Women get the job done :P

Like RV said, in Florida a lot moved forward... the Rs only were up 50-80K votes and the new, fair felon reinstatement is over a million voters. We had some awesome pickups across the country and highlights like Kim Davis going down.

And now that little bastard Jeff Sessions got kicked to the curb! Marijuana stocks soared on the news :lol: Nice cherry on top. Now we're hearing Mueller might push some indictments through as early as this week... if that happens, we're going to Disney World next week!! :thumbs:

We're listening to the Duke Ellington Orchestra on the Echo and might try the new season of House of Cards tonight. After two years of nonstop insanity and absolute Republican control, the dam has broken. My vote is to use the next few months for Donald, Nancy and whomever the Rs choose to find 3-5 concrete, compromise things to pass for the American people and do it. That's what people want. No more falling for shiny Twitter objects and listening to the loudest, most disgusting voice in the room.
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Re: The Blue Wave

#95

Post by Addie » Wed Nov 14, 2018 8:23 am

FiveThirtyEight - Chat: Yes, It Was A Blue Wave
New York Mag - Ed Kilgore: 2018 Turnout Was the Highest of Any Midterm in More Than a Century
NBC News: Despite Trump's denials, Democrats' election blue wave getting bigger and bluer by the day

There was a sense on election night that Trump and the GOP had somehow prevented a wave election. This prediction proved premature.
Business Insider: A powerful group of conservatives that sprung out of the Tea Party is one of the biggest losers of the midterm elections
NPR: It Was A Big, Blue Wave: Democrats Pick Up Most House Seats In A Generation

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Re: The Blue Wave

#96

Post by ZekeB » Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:49 am

Trump's lemmings whined about President Obama actively campaigning for blue candidates. As if. I would have loved to have seen two rallies in an evenly split city, a Thump vs Obama thing, and compared the crowd size. Of course we know who has a tendency to embellish their crowd size just a little.
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Re: The Blue Wave

#97

Post by Somerset » Wed Nov 14, 2018 2:34 pm

ZekeB wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:49 am
Trump's lemmings whined about President Obama actively campaigning for blue candidates. As if. I would have loved to have seen two rallies in an evenly split city, a Thump vs Obama thing, and compared the crowd size. Of course we know who has a tendency to embellish their crowd size just a little.
FIFY ;)

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Re: The Blue Wave

#98

Post by Sam the Centipede » Wed Nov 14, 2018 2:58 pm

Somerset wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 2:34 pm
ZekeB wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:49 am
Trump's lemmings whined about President Obama actively campaigning for blue candidates. As if. I would have loved to have seen two rallies in an evenly split city, a Thump vs Obama thing, and compared the crowd size. Of course we know who has a tendency to embellish their crowd size just a little.
FIFY ;)
? As in "That's not a mushroom, that's a toad's tool"? ;)

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Re: The Blue Wave

#99

Post by ZekeB » Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:19 pm

Sam the Centipede wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 2:58 pm
? As in "That's not a mushroom, that's a toad's tool"? ;)
His wives sure as hell didn't get their looks by kissing him. :nope:
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Re: The Blue Wave

#100

Post by AndyinPA » Wed Nov 14, 2018 5:25 pm

I was happy, for the most part, with the election last week. We did head out of town after voting, so I managed not to have to listen to it all day, as I had hoped. The hotel had MSNBC, but I didn't put it on on Tuesday evening. The next morning I looked at some sites online so as not to be shocked when we went down to breakfast where the TV would be on. I got to relax and enjoy our days out of town after that. Some people live for the blow-by-blow of election coverage; I can't even stand the run-up to the election. It was a nice trip, made better by the blue wave. :-D

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