The Women Who Gave Trump the White House Could Tip the Midterms to Democrats ...
The prospects for Democrats with blue-collar white women are much more uncertain, though. Those women were crucial to Trump’s victory in 2016, particularly in the pivotal states across the Rust Belt. Trump significantly expanded on Mitt Romney’s margins in 2012 among those women in Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. In the latter three states, which effectively decided the race, Trump ran at least 13 points better among white women without a college degree than those with one. It’s no exaggeration to say the principal reason the first female major-party nominee failed to win the presidency is because so many working-class white women in the Rust Belt rejected her.
Trump has suffered some erosion with these non–college-educated white women, but they don’t display nearly as much resistance to him as their college-educated counterparts. On a wide variety of questions, they divide closely over Trump. About half of them say they consider him a racist or are embarrassed by his behavior, and slightly more than half say they don’t believe he respects women as much as men. In this week’s Quinnipiac poll, they split exactly in half on whether they like Trump’s policies and broke closely over his job performance (51 percent positive to 44 percent negative).
Some surveys have shown these women souring on Trump in greater numbers across the big midwestern battlegrounds, such as Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. But overall, most polls still mostly show them leaning solidly toward the GOP in the congressional contest—though generally by smaller margins than in House elections since 2010. Quinnipiac’s latest survey gave the GOP a nine-point edge among them.
Brabender says that while some blue-collar white women have grown uneasy over Trump’s confrontational style, that’s outweighed by their satisfaction with his results. Greenberg agrees it remains a heavy lift to move large numbers of blue-collar white women, especially older ones resistant to demographic and cultural change, toward Democrats. But she says their unease over Trump’s behavior may cause many of them to simply sit out November. “It is so offensive, and they just don’t understand why he thinks he needs to do that,” she says. “It is less of a conversion to Democrats, and, for better or worse, it turns them off about politics more generally and it leads them to lower participation.” ...
Working-class white women are so pivotal to shaping Democratic opportunities largely because blue-collar white men appear so immovably behind Trump and the GOP. To expand beyond purely urban/suburban districts, Democrats believe they must replicate the winning equation demonstrated by Conor Lamb in his March special-election victory for a House seat near Pittsburgh. His model was to max out his advantage in white-collar suburbs recoiling from Trump while narrowing his deficit in blue-collar and rural communities, almost entirely by improving among working-class white women. Those blue-collar women helped put Trump in office. The midterm election may turn heavily on how many of them ultimately share the revulsion about his behavior common among other women since he arrived there.
The Atlantic - Ron Brownstein
¡Sterngard! come home.
Walsh: Working-Class Trump Voters ‘Forgot Where They Came From’
The progressive Boston mayor fits the profile of a Trump voter. And if Democrats want to win them back, he says they need to stop with the abstract talk and get real. ...
Since the moment Trump won, Democrats have been on a quest for the Marty Walsh voters all across the country. They’re the Obama-Trump voters, Americans who’ve taken on a near-mythic status among pundits and consultants and will somehow explain the current moment and light the way to the future, despite the fact that turnout numbers since 2016 show a massive uprising of new voters who don’t fit the old models. They’ve been scoured in polls and focus groups. Books have been sold about them. And not without some basis in reality: College education has become one of the most reliable indicators of whether people are Democrats. An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll in June that showed an overall 38 percent approval and 60 percent disapproval rating for Trump also found white men without college degrees approving of him, 68 percent to 29 percent.
Then there’s Walsh, who fits that profile but is an intense defender of Obamacare, immigrants and unions and a vocal supporter of full equality for LGBTQ Americans. (Of the Supreme Court justices who voted to allow a cake shop to refuse to make a wedding cake for a gay couple, Walsh said, “I hope when they go to a family party, their family says to them, ‘Really?’ Because I think it’s just sad.”) ...
“This election has to be covered in the sense of not ‘Trump versus person X.’ It has to be covered in ‘where America is today,’” Walsh said. “We need more stories about where is our water system in America? I don’t think the people understand how fragile our water system is in America. I don’t think people understand how bad our infrastructure, roads and rails are in this country. I think they think they have a good road system—we really don’t. It’s crumbling. I think people need to understand what’s happening in the environment in our country that, in Boston, if we don’t really focus on building protections on the harbor, what could happen if a Superstorm Sandy comes, and then what’s happening in the Midwest with forest fires.”
“What’s at stake in this country is not necessarily undocumented immigrants; what’s at stake in this country isn’t some of the things that they’re talking about,” he said. “It’s exactly our own backyard, what’s happening.”
¡Sterngard! come home.
"Terror must be maintained or the Empire is doomed."
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He's from Massachusetts. Once you go west of the Housatonic his geography will be weak. There's New York. Then New Jersey. Then some other states.
“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.”
― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
Well, out here on the west coast, my wife and I have discovered that going to the east coast means flying to Michigan...
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We have maps...
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"[Moderate] doesn't mean you don't have views. It just means your views aren't predictable ideologically one way or the other, and you're trying to follow the facts where they lead and reach your own conclusions."
-- Sen. King (R-ME)
-- Sen. King (R-ME)
New York Times OpEd
The Best Way for Democrats to Win Working-Class Voters
Show up on people’s doorsteps, and the recipe is simple: listen and offer compelling solutions and information that’s new to them that they can connect with their lives. ...
Like Elaine, two-thirds of Ohio Trump supporters agreed, when we asked them last summer, with a battery of progressive economic policies, including ending employers’ treating workers as independent contractors, so that they’re not saddled with tax and benefit costs, and measures that make it easier to unionize. They had just never heard any politician addressing these issues. The irony is that even where there’s ubiquitous content, people feel less informed. But when swing voters like Elaine can discuss and reason out loud, they can connect powerful stories from their own lives to pragmatic progressive policies — only if they hear about them.
We can’t assume voters like Elaine, Darren and Carol will pull the lever for a progressive in 2018. For this approach to be successful, it must be grounded in more than anecdote and observation. We need evidence that’s produced by clinical research about what changes minds.
An authoritative analysis by the political scientists David Broockman and Josh Kalla comparing nine Working America campaigns with 40 other clinical experiments measuring all major forms of voter communication validated our approach. By engaging in sustained organizing with voters identified via clinical analysis as the best targets, even in communities saturated with campaign communications, we were able to persuade swing voters to vote for Democrats in 2016 in places such as Ohio and to mobilize the party’s base voters in places such as North Carolina.
The recipe is simple: credibility derived from listening, compelling solutions, new information that breaks through and thoughtful analytics. And it works with working-class swing voters and disaffected Democrats equally.
Winning back the confidence of these voters is essential for gaining control of Congress and for building strength in the states ahead of redistricting fights after 2020.
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"It is wrong to say God made rich and poor; He only made male and female, and He gave them the Earth as their inheritance."- Thomas Paine, Forward to Agrarian Justice
Cancer broke me
To this day, the media never mention the avalanche of lies, hate, and misdirection that streams from the right-wing propaganda machine like lava from an active volcano. It's always all about the Dems just not being pure enough, or convincing enough, or united enough in their efforts to stop the fucking train from going over the precipice the clever corporations and Russians are aiming for.
No matter where you go, there you are!
Kanye West finally became an Obama supporter
Distancing himself from Trump this week, West declared support for a big chunk of the former president’s agenda.
Kanye West and conservatives, explained
By David Swerdlick
David Swerdlick is an assistant editor for Outlook and PostEverything.
November 2 at 4:46 PM
It isn’t clear what prompted Kanye West’s tweetstorm Tuesday night, in which he declared, “I’ve been used to spread messages I don’t believe in,” and “I never wanted any association with Blexit” — the nascent, fairly niche movement of mostly younger African Americans on the political right who gathered at the White House last week — so soon after his cringe-inducing Oval Office soliloquy with President Trump looking on.
West may not have intended to express common cause with Barack Obama, someone with whom he’s exchanged rhetorical barbs over the years. (Obama famously called West a “jackass”; earlier this year, West tweeted “Obama was in office for eight years and nothing in Chicago,” their mutual hometown, “changed.”) But West’s proclamations land him squarely in Obama’s camp.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/ ... supporter/