2018 GOP Rattled by Trump

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Orlylicious
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Re: 2018 GOP Rattled by Trump

#251

Post by Orlylicious » Thu Jan 11, 2018 5:18 am

:pray: :boxing: :stamp:
Rash of retirements dim GOP hopes of keeping the House
Democratic momentum is building as Reps. Darrell Issa and Ed Royce become the latest Republicans to hang it up.
California GOP Reps. Darrell Issa and Ed Royce both bailed on their reelection campaigns in the past 48 hours, bringing the total of Republican-held open seats to a staggering 29 districts
By ELENA SCHNEIDER and JOHN BRESNAHAN 01/10/2018 06:40 PM EST

A flurry of Republican retirements in recent weeks has further weakened the party’s hold on the House heading into the midterms — and the exodus probably isn’t over. California Reps. Darrell Issa and Ed Royce both bailed on their reelection campaigns in the past 48 hours, bringing the total of Republican-held open seats to a staggering 29 districts, a figure that includes lawmakers seeking higher offices. The Issa and Royce retirements open up seats that Hillary Clinton carried in the 2016 presidential race and will be more difficult — and expensive — for Republicans to defend, particularly if the party is swept under a Democratic wave.

“There’s no putting lipstick on that: They’re both competitive districts,” Ohio Rep. Steve Stivers, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, said in an interview Wednesday. Stivers, who said he believes the party will keep control of the House, still cautioned that more retirements could be coming — a statement likely to rattle Republicans’ nerves. “We’re talking to a handful [of members],” Stivers said. “There’s not much hand-holding now because people have pretty much made their decision. Filing days are coming, so I think we’re pretty much through it.”
***
Those pending filing deadlines — California’s is on March 9 — mean members who have been on the fence, or who are facing dauntingly poor poll numbers, could join Issa and Royce in heading for the exits in the coming weeks. The early indicators of a wave election are glaring: Democrats won a handful of off-year and special elections in 2017. Even where they fell short of victory, the party performed better than expected. President Donald Trump’s approval ratings are stuck around 40 percent. And Democrats have a double-digit lead on the House generic ballot in most polls. “This is the final window, so I expect the next month or so, we’ll see the last wave of retirements,” said former Virginia Rep. Tom Davis, who chaired the NRCC for two cycles in the 1990s and 2000s. “This is not 2006, and it’s not 1994 yet. But I do think the atmospherics are factored into these members’ rationale for retiring.”
***
Taken together, Republicans see all the retirements and open seats as an indication that the 2018 elections are likely to follow historical patterns: The president’s party loses, on average, 23 seats in the House in the first midterm election of a new administration, going back to Franklin D. Roosevelt. “It’s obviously the sign of an ugly cycle ahead,” said Adrian Gray, a Republican pollster. “Oftentimes, these ugly cycles appear early, and people see writing on the wall.” Davis, the former NRCC chair, agreed. “Every time another Republican retires, it makes it better for House Democrats — no denying that,” he said. “This is not what you want to see because, when we’ve seen these types of retirements in the past, as a general rule, a bad year follows.”
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/ ... yce-333851

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Re: 2018 GOP Rattled by Trump

#252

Post by RVInit » Thu Jan 11, 2018 7:10 am

They know exactly what they are doing, don't even doubt it. 2018 will be a Democratic sweep. Trump will cooperate with Democrats because he has no choice and all he wants are "wins". 2020 will be a total and complete Republican take over again because Democrats don't ever do well over all as incumbents and they will run someone sane against Trump.

Please don't let that happen.


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Re: 2018 GOP Rattled by Trump

#253

Post by simonalia » Thu Jan 11, 2018 7:48 am

The campaign that Hillary mismanaged and the Rainbow message will kill us



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Re: 2018 GOP Rattled by Trump

#254

Post by Foggy » Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:08 am

Hay, great idea. Let's whine some more about Hillary for the next few thousand years.

Progressive, that. :roll:



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Re: 2018 GOP Rattled by Trump

#255

Post by TollandRCR » Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:17 am

RVInit wrote:
Thu Jan 11, 2018 7:10 am
They know exactly what they are doing, don't even doubt it. 2018 will be a Democratic sweep. Trump will cooperate with Democrats because he has no choice and all he wants are "wins". 2020 will be a total and complete Republican take over again because Democrats don't ever do well over all as incumbents and they will run someone sane against Trump.

Please don't let that happen.
If this is likely to be true, then Democrats have to work together to understand why — and then fix it. It has not always been true, I think.


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Re: 2018 GOP Rattled by Trump

#256

Post by Slim Cognito » Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:10 am

I get excited about 2018, then I read OpEds like this.
Never before has a president ignored such a clear national security threat
By Ben Cardin January 10 at 9:06 AM



For the better part of 20 years, Russian President Vladimir Putin has engaged in a relentless assault against democratic institutions abroad, universal values and the rule of law. He has carried out these attacks with an asymmetric arsenal: cyberattacks; disinformation; support for fringe political groups; the weaponization of energy resources, organized crime and corruption; and even military aggression.

Putin has used such techniques because he has operated from a position of weakness, hobbled by a faltering economy, a substandard military and few followers on the world stage. And his attacks have grown in intensity and complexity over the past few years, driven by a desire to also repress democratic aspirations among his own citizens. While our European partners have taken steps to better defend themselves, the United States has done little to protect its institutions.

Despite the efforts of some in national security leadership, as well as dedicated career public servants across the executive branch, one person is preventing a strong, government-wide response that holds Russia accountable for its destabilizing activities: the president of the United States. Never before has the White House so clearly ignored a national security threat.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... 887499c54f



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Re: 2018 GOP Rattled by Trump

#257

Post by RVInit » Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:20 am

TollandRCR wrote:
Thu Jan 11, 2018 8:17 am
RVInit wrote:
Thu Jan 11, 2018 7:10 am
They know exactly what they are doing, don't even doubt it. 2018 will be a Democratic sweep. Trump will cooperate with Democrats because he has no choice and all he wants are "wins". 2020 will be a total and complete Republican take over again because Democrats don't ever do well over all as incumbents and they will run someone sane against Trump.

Please don't let that happen.
If this is likely to be true, then Democrats have to work together to understand why — and then fix it. It has not always been true, I think.
I don't mean to be sarcastic, but does 2010 ring any bells? Democrats seem good at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. More so than Republicans. Republicans do benefit from playing dirty and having an electorate that has a very short attention span and even less memory. So yeah, those are huge problems for Democrats to figure out.


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Re: 2018 GOP Rattled by Trump

#258

Post by TollandRCR » Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:12 am

We are all likely to have our explanations for 2010.

Part of it has to be that the Democrats ran away from President Obama and one of his signal accomplishments, the ADA. They began running away while it was still under debate. They let Republicans define it.

That made me bitter to the DNC and Democratic candidates. I still am. A cowardly party we do not need.

A “rainbow coalition” campaign will fail. A HRC campaign will fail. (Not a whine; a fact.). Somebody needs to start understanding why Democrats win and then run on that. Biden or too old?


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Re: 2018 GOP Rattled by Trump

#259

Post by Sterngard Friegen » Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:44 am

TollandRCR wrote:
Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:12 am
We are all likely to have our explanations for 2010.

Part of it has to be that the Democrats ran away from President Obama and one of his signal accomplishments, the ADA. They began running away while it was still under debate. They let Republicans define it.

That made me bitter to the DNC and Democratic candidates. I still am. A cowardly party we do not need.

A “rainbow coalition” campaign will fail. A HRC campaign will fail. (Not a whine; a fact.). Somebody needs to start understanding why Democrats win and then run on that. Biden or too old?
Agreed. That was the beginning of the end of rational politics. Democrats who were terrified of what they had done. They should have been proud of the ACA. The well publicized town halls were quite possibly the first attempts by a foreign power to discredit rational political conduct. And Democrats cowered in their offices, to be swept away.

Sad.



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Re: 2018 GOP Rattled by Trump

#260

Post by Addie » Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:48 am

Amen.
TollandRCR wrote:
Thu Jan 11, 2018 10:12 am
That made me bitter to the DNC and Democratic candidates. I still am. A cowardly party we do not need.


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Re: 2018 GOP Rattled by Trump

#261

Post by Gregg » Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:10 am

How about a proverbial red headed stepchild?

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Re: 2018 GOP Rattled by Trump

#262

Post by Slim Cognito » Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:14 am

I love Uncle Joe but we need new blood.



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Re: 2018 GOP Rattled by Trump

#263

Post by Volkonski » Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:20 am

Gabriel Debenedetti‏
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With Rep Cramer passing on a run in North Dakota, Rs have now failed to get their top choice candidate to run against Dem Senate incumbents in *at least* 5 of the states Trump won in 2016 (ND, MT, OH, WI, MI...)


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Re: 2018 GOP Rattled by Trump

#264

Post by Gregg » Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:20 am

He is new blood, old name, doesn't have a lot of baggage yet, appeals to a lot of demographics and hasn't pissed off anyone yet. We could do worse.
He's VERY young, though.


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Re: 2018 GOP Rattled by Trump

#265

Post by Volkonski » Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:45 pm

On Long Island pro-Trump congressman Lee Zeldin is opposing Trump on offshore drilling.
Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley) said while he supports “an energy strategy that secures American energy independence and drives down costs… on Long Island, however, our waterways are our way of life, and drilling off of Long Island is unacceptable and counterproductive to the well-being of our communities.”
https://riverheadlocal.com/2018/01/11/f ... pposition/

Yes, Zeldin is all for energy independence but when it would threaten the coastline of his district he knows he must change his tune.

His district roughly covers the eastern half of Long Island and the seat was held by a Deomcrat from 2003 until 2015. I hope the Democrats can regain this seat this year. The unpopular tax bill should help.

Some other local Republican office holders have also come out against drilling.


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Re: 2018 GOP Rattled by Trump

#266

Post by Volkonski » Thu Jan 11, 2018 12:57 pm

We may not have seen the last of Issa.


Exclusive: Issa mulls running in neighboring district


http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/36 ... g-district
GOP Rep. Darrell Issa, who said Wednesday he is not seeking reelection in California’s 49th district, has been discussing with colleagues the possibility of running in a neighboring San Diego district if embattled Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.) resigns, multiple sources told The Hill.

Some of these discussions happened as recently as Wednesday, the day Issa announced he would not be running for reelection in his coastal Southern California district after 15 years in the House.

Most of Washington took that to mean Issa, the former Oversight Committee chairman and Congress’s wealthiest member, was leaving Capitol Hill for good.

But in his statement, Issa never specifically said he was retiring from Congress.


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Re: 2018 GOP Rattled by Trump

#267

Post by Sterngard Friegen » Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:11 pm

Duncan Hunter's 50th Congressional District is R +11 on the Cook scale. So it may be safe for Issa. Hunter is going to have problems because he appears to be a crook.



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Re: 2018 GOP Rattled by Trump

#268

Post by Slartibartfast » Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:20 pm

Gregg wrote:
Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:20 am
He is new blood, old name, doesn't have a lot of baggage yet, appeals to a lot of demographics and hasn't pissed off anyone yet. We could do worse.
He's VERY young, though.
In my opinion, "young" is one of his best features (yes Tollie, Biden is too old -- but I like him too, also), but the Democrats need to take a cue from the NFL and not anoint people superstars before they prove it on the field and not whine about it when players go down with injuries. It's time to put on their big girl pants and adopt a "next man up" (or "next woman up") philosophy. The person running for office doesn't matter, only what they plan to do in that office (which they then need to follow through on and continue to support -- or they didn't learn a damn thing after their feckless abandonment of Obamacare). The Democrats need to tell us what they will do if we elect them to office, otherwise we are going to get the same ineffectual Democratic governance that we've all seen time and time again.

Principles not principals.

It doesn't matter if they run Oprah if she has bills that were written in an open-source, transparent process, incorporated concepts like feedback so they could adapt if they failed to achieve their goals, had a CBO score, and were ready to be introduced to Congress on day 1 for issues like health care, infrastructure, tax reform (paid for by closing loopholes and raising taxes on the wealthy), fixing social security (eliminating the FICA cap seems like the easiest thing), etc. Hell, throw in universal basic income while you are at it.

Who cares who the president is if they have already announce their nominees for cabinet posts and other Senate confirmable jobs? If there is a plan to rebuild each agency (necessary after President Trump) and a team ready and able to execute it. Not to mention a list of judges for appointment to the federal bench.

I'll gladly support any candidate who does these things and shows that she is willing to listen to what people are saying, can find the appropriate experts, and takes the time to understand what they are telling her before making a decision. If you want to get the job, you need to show that you can do the job, in my opinion. If I was running for president, I would see all of this as my due diligence and I wonder why the Democrats don't.

The Democrats have to stop hoarding political capital like a miser holding on to a penny. Political capital depreciates rapidly if it's not spent, evaporates if it is spent foolishly, and grows when it is spent wisely. And you sow the seeds of it by demonstrating your integrity via transparency, your competence in your plans for governance and legislation, and your wisdom by listening to people with relevant expertise and experience.

I cringe every time this thread comes up because of the implicit assumption that the Democrats will succeed because the Republicans are screwing up. That might get a wave in 2018, but it also sets up a backlash in 2020. The Democrats have to call their shot (and do it now) as to what they can achieve if they get control of both houses and the presidency. They need to stop relying on the Republicans to lose and do what they need to do to win.


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Re: 2018 GOP Rattled by Trump

#269

Post by Sterngard Friegen » Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:28 pm

Using Slarti's sports analogy, I think a young ginger Kennedy should be likened to the Los Angeles Rams' coach, Sean McVay.

In other words: :thumbs:

My generation has pretty much fucked up the planet and country. Time for a change.



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Re: 2018 GOP Rattled by Trump

#270

Post by Tiredretiredlawyer » Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:30 pm

Sterngard Friegen wrote:
Thu Jan 11, 2018 1:11 pm
Duncan Hunter's 50th Congressional District is R +11 on the Cook scale. So it may be safe for Issa. Hunter is going to have problems because he appears to be a crook.
Issa is tricksie. The Indivisible group has dogged Jim all year. I think they will continue into the other district.


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Re: 2018 GOP Rattled by Trump

#271

Post by Tiredretiredlawyer » Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:53 pm

Are Americans Going to Vote Their Hopes, or Vote Their Fears?

The estimable Michael Kruse was sent on White Folks Safari to the heart of whitest Indiana for yet another examination of how the coastal elite Democrats are letting down their brethren in The Heartland. (I find this an almost criminal waste of Kruse’s talents, but what do I know?) This latest expedition was prompted by a new report from a PAC affiliated with Democratic Representative Cheri Bustos of Illinois. The report’s title makes it out to be a kind of Just So story for the consultant class.

The report is pretty much what you’d expect. The embattled Heartland Democrats have been let down by a national party that has lousy messaging strategies (very true) and a sclerotic consulting class that’s only in it for percentages of the ad buys (largely true). (The report’s recommendation that the Democrats develop a national organization similar to ALEC is spot on. This would be a better use of Tom Steyer’s money than a quixotic impeachment campaign.) But then, alas, the people responding to Bustos’ report go off the rails.

Michigan State Rep. Henry Yanez spoke to the remaining popularity of Bill Clinton, “…he uttered four simple words — ‘I feel your pain.’ When Democrats can say that and not talk about people ‘clinging to their guns and religion,’ we’ll start doing better with rural and blue collar voters.”

It was the guy who talked about people clinging to guns and religion who won the presidency. Twice. As a guide to perennial Democratic bumfuzzlement, this report is somewhat valuable. As a prescription for a more equitable society achieved through politics, it can’t get out of its own way. The simple fact is that a lot of the politicians in the Bustos report lost because their constituents would rather vote their fears than their hopes, and willingly vote against their own economic interest because they think that someone is coming for their guns. Anyone who thinks the Democratic Party emphasized gun control and reproductive rights at the expense of, say, healthcare and education in the last campaign either wasn’t paying attention, or chose not to. There’s no third alternative.


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Re: 2018 GOP Rattled by Trump

#272

Post by Volkonski » Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:13 pm


Scott Wong

@scottwongDC

Ryan concedes 'I don't see us tackling' entitlement reform this year
http://
thehill.com/business-a-lob
bying/368740-ryan-i-dont-see-us-tackling-entitlement-reform-this-year#.Wlj5UziwJ-g.twitter

12:07 PM - Jan 12, 2018
He doesn't want to give older Americans any more reasons to vote for Democrats this November.


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Re: 2018 GOP Rattled by Trump

#273

Post by Addie » Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:15 am

WaPo
New alarm among Republicans that Democrats could win big this year

A raft of retirements, difficulty recruiting candidates and President Trump’s continuing pattern of throwing his party off message have prompted new alarm among Republicans that they could be facing a Democratic electoral wave in November.

The concern has grown so acute that Trump received what one congressional aide described as a “sobering” slide presentation about the difficult midterm landscape at Camp David last weekend, leading the president to pledge a robust schedule of fundraising and campaign travel in the coming months, White House officials said.

But the trends have continued, and perhaps worsened, since that briefing, with two more prominent Republican House members announcing plans to retire from vulnerable seats and a would-be recruit begging off a Senate challenge to Democrat Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota despite pressure from Trump to run.

And by the end of the week, many Republicans were scrambling to distance themselves from the president after he spoke of “shithole countries” during an Oval Office meeting with lawmakers about immigration policy. Rep. Mia Love (R-Utah), a rising star in the party who faces a strong Democratic challenge this year, quickly denounced Trump for apparently denigrating Haiti, the birthplace of both her parents, during the Oval Office discussion.


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Re: 2018 GOP Rattled by Trump

#274

Post by pipistrelle » Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:22 am

Congressional races are a mere distraction from his popularity contest/celebrity.



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Re: 2018 GOP Rattled by Trump

#275

Post by Azastan » Sun Jan 14, 2018 11:25 am

...leading the president to pledge a robust schedule of fundraising and campaign travel in the coming months,
Isn't that exactly what they DON'T want him to do?



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