US Senate: New Mexico

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Joseph Robidoux III
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Joined: Fri Feb 11, 2011 6:02 am

US Senate: New Mexico

#1

Post by Joseph Robidoux III »

The New Mexico US Senate race is for the seat of retiring Sen Jeff Bingaman (D-NM). The favorites to capture their party's nomination appear to be Democratic Congressman Martin Heinrich and Republican former Congresswoman Heather Wilson.In the party’s U.S. Senate seat race, Rep. Martin Heinrich was the top vote getter at Saturday’s convention with 55 percent of the statewide vote.While Heinrich remains the frontrunner in the Senate campaign, State Auditor Hector Balderas, with 45 percent of the delegate vote, whittled away much of the lead with a better showing than many in the party anticipated before the convention.[/break1]abqjournal.com/main/2012/03/10/abqnewsseeker/griego-heinrich-top-democratic-field-in-pre-primary-vote.html]http://www.abqjournal.com/main/2012/03/ ... -vote.htmlWilson, from what I've found, appears to have only one challenger who is trailing her badly.Public Opinion Strategies partner Glen Bolger conducted the poll less than a week after Lt. Gov. John Sanchez’s Feb. 9 announcement that he was dropping out of the race. His decision left conservative businessman Greg Sowards as Wilson’s only GOP challenger.In the poll, Wilson led Sowards 81 percent to 10 percent. [/break1]rollcall.com/new-mexico-heather-wilson-up-big-in-senate-primary-poll/]http://atr.rollcall.com/new-mexico-heat ... mary-poll/Should Heinrich and Wilson be their respective party's nominee, the chances of Democrats retaining this seat are good at present.
US Senate New Mexico 2012-04-04.JPG
[/break1]realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/nm/new_mexico_senate_wilson_vs_heinrich-2016.html]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -2016.html

Joseph Robidoux III
Posts: 5619
Joined: Fri Feb 11, 2011 6:02 am

US Senate: New Mexico

#2

Post by Joseph Robidoux III »

The Albuquerque Journal's most recent poll shows the same two candidates leading.


[Martin] Heinrich, a U.S. House member and former Albuquerque city councilor, led [Hector] Balderas, the incumbent state auditor from the tiny town of Wagon Mound, 51 percent to 26 percent, with 23 percent undecided, according to a Journal Poll conducted May 21-24.


[Heather] Wilson, who held the 1st Congressional District seat for five terms before Heinrich, had two-thirds of the Republican voter support in the Journal Poll for the GOP nomination to the Senate seat. She was leading [Greg] Sowards, a Las Cruces businessman, 66 percent to 20 percent, with 14 percent undecided.


[/break1]abqjournal.com/main/2012/05/27/a1/heinrich-wilson-build-wide-leads.html]http://www.abqjournal.com/main/2012/05/ ... leads.htmlThe New Mexico primary is June 5.

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realist
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US Senate: New Mexico

#3

Post by realist »

In the general election it should definitely be a race between Wilson and Heinrich. Heinrich's only chance, if he has one at all, is that he polls well with Hispanics, which is evident in his large lead over Balderas.Beating Heather will be a formidable task. He's the only Dem that even has a snowball's chance. It will be very difficult for NM to hang on to the Dem seat being vacated. We're working on it, but just sayin'.
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realist
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US Senate: New Mexico

#4

Post by realist »

In the general election it should definitely be a race between Wilson and Heinrich. Heinrich's only chance, if he has one at all, is that he polls well with Hispanics, which is evident in his large lead over Balderas.Beating Heather will be a formidable task. He's the only Dem that even has a snowball's chance. It will be very difficult for NM to hang on to the Dem seat being vacated. We're working on it, but just sayin'.As I (and pretty much everyone else) predicted...U.S. Senate DEM Martin Heinrich 28,143 63% Hector Balderas 16,185 37%Precincts Reporting - 27%U.S. Senate GOP Heather Wilson 27,038 72% Greg Sowards 10,274 28%Precincts Reporting - 27%They "may" tighten up some, especially Heinrich's, but I don't believe the outcome will change.Mitt has 76%, Paul and Santorum each with 9% and Newt with 6%
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Joseph Robidoux III
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US Senate: New Mexico

#5

Post by Joseph Robidoux III »

Real Clear Politics list 4 polls by 4 different organizations with Democrat Martin Heinrich leading Republican Heather Wilson by at least 7 points in all of them.[/break1]realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/nm/new_mexico_senate_wilson_vs_heinrich-2016.html]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -2016.htmlIf you scroll down a bit you'll see that earlier poll results don't offer much hope for Wilson either.

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realist
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US Senate: New Mexico

#6

Post by realist »

Real Clear Politics list 4 polls by 4 different organizations with Democrat Martin Heinrich leading Republican Heather Wilson by at least 7 points in all of them.[/break1]realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/nm/new_mexico_senate_wilson_vs_heinrich-2016.html]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -2016.htmlIf you scroll down a bit you'll see that earlier poll results don't offer much hope for Wilson either.I've been following this race since day one and initially had little hope that Heinrich could beat Wilson. I have been working for Heinrich, and even so have been surprised by the numbers. Hope it lasts.
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Joseph Robidoux III
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US Senate: New Mexico

#7

Post by Joseph Robidoux III »

Update:





Democratic Congressman Martin Heinrich's lead over former Congresswoman Heather Wilson has grown. Color this race blue.





http://i1143.photobucket.com/albums/n63 ... -10-21.jpg


[/break1]realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/nm/new_mexico_senate_wilson_vs_heinrich-2016.html]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -2016.html

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Suranis
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US Senate: New Mexico

#8

Post by Suranis »

Wow. That's quite a turnaround.
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