US Senate: Arizona

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Joseph Robidoux III
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US Senate: Arizona

#1

Post by Joseph Robidoux III »

Congressman Jeff Flake (R-AZ) out raised his Republican primary opponent, real estate investor Wil Cardon, during the 3rd quarter and presently has a cash on hand advantage. Cardon has vowed not to be out spent and may have the personal wealth to back up that statement. The seat is presently held by Jon Kyl who is retiring.[/break1]rollcall.com/issues/57_43/Flake-Builds-Up-Campaign-Coffers-in-Arizona-209555-1.html]http://www.rollcall.com/issues/57_43/Fl ... 555-1.html[/break1]azcentral.com/community/mesa/articles/2011/08/05/20110805kyl-senate-seat-candidate-mesa-investor05-ON.html#ixzz1UBhpcPkQ]http://www.azcentral.com/community/mesa ... z1UBhpcPkQWil Cardon contributed to the Flake campaign, and has had it with politicians at the hill. So far I think I like Wil Cardon much better than Jeff Flake because as Wil states….Jeff Flake voted against bipartisanship. Thumbs up to Wil Cardon on that! We are tired of Tea Party Republicans who toe the party line instead of doing what is in the best interest of the American people.[/break1]com/arizona-hispanic-republicans/2011/08/05/wil-cardon-enters-arizona-senate-race-against-jeff-flake/]http://tucsoncitizen.com/arizona-hispan ... eff-flake/There may be an interesting Senate race in Arizona this year after all.

Joseph Robidoux III
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US Senate: Arizona

#2

Post by Joseph Robidoux III »

Former GW Bush Surgeon General Richard Carmona is now the second Democrat running for the open Senate seat (former Arizona Democratic Party Chairman Don Bivens is the other).


Politico reported that prominent Democrats up to and including President Obama had called Carmona to encourage him to run. Arizona is a seat the party hopes to put into play in 2012 as they defend a narrow 53-47 majority in the Senate. [/break1]latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-carmona-arizona-senate-20111110,0,6600851.story]http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la ... 0851.story





Link to a Sept 26 Roll Call article on Don Bivens announcing his campaign for the US Senate.


[/break1]rollcall.com/news/Don_Bivens_Enters_Arizona_Senate_Race-209011-1.html]http://www.rollcall.com/news/Don_Bivens ... 011-1.html

Joseph Robidoux III
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US Senate: Arizona

#3

Post by Joseph Robidoux III »

Real Clear Politics offers their update on the Arizona US Senate campaign.[/break1]realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/11/15/with_carmona_dems_see_arizona_senate_race_in_play.html]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articl ... _play.htmlThe race may have been 6 term Congressman Jeff Flake's to lose at one point but it appears to be competitive now, for the Republican primary and the general election.

Joseph Robidoux III
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US Senate: Arizona

#4

Post by Joseph Robidoux III »

Former Arizona Democratic Party Chairman Don Bivens abandons his campaign for the Democratic US Senate nomination.Former U.S. Surgeon General Richard Carmona is looking at a straight shot at the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate thanks to the withdrawal Wednesday of chief primary opponent Don Bivens.The development allows Carmona to focus all of his time, money and energy on his general-election campaign and avoid burning his resources in a potentially costly and divisive primary fight.>The GOP race, meanwhile, is increasingly looking like it could turn into a nasty fight between U.S. Rep. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., the front-runner, and Wil Cardon, an independently wealthy investor who recently launched an expensive advertising push to boost his name ID.A big-money, negative GOP grudge match would increase the likelihood that the eventual Republican nominee will be damaged before the general election, a scenario that would further boost Carmona's prospects.[/break1]azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/2012/03/28/20120328arizona-democrat-drops-out-senate-race.html]http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepubli ... -race.html
US Senate AZ 2012-03-29.JPG
[/break1]realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/az/arizona_senate_flake_vs_carmona-3005.html]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -3005.htmlCarmona has some work to do but the absense of a primary battle comparable to the Flake-Cardon one is a plus.

poutine
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US Senate: Arizona

#5

Post by poutine »

Carmona's main issue here is simply name recognition. He may have been Surgeon General, but who cares about Surgeon Generals? Flake is a very well-respected Congressman who centrist Democrats like myself even admire. But Carmona fits the profile perfectly of the kind of Democrat Arizonans like to elect. Expect these poll numbers to change with time, especially now that Bivens has dropped out.

Joseph Robidoux III
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US Senate: Arizona

#6

Post by Joseph Robidoux III »

Arizona Republican Wil Cardon has a new ad promoting his desire to place National Guard troops at the Arizona border, pass Arizona SB 1070 plus a few of some other familiar RWNJ immigration solutions. Cardon is a teabagger's wet dream, although he does have some work to do.


Polling shows [Congressman Jeff] Flake almost 50 points ahead of Cardon, a former Flake supporter, in the Republican primary.





[/break1]com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/220643-flake-challenger-drops-another-250000-on-immigration-ads]http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/sen ... ration-ads

Joseph Robidoux III
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US Senate: Arizona

#7

Post by Joseph Robidoux III »

Real Clear Politics has added another poll in this race.
US Senate AZ 2012-05-03.JPG
[/break1]realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/az/arizona_senate_flake_vs_carmona-3005.html]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -3005.htmlThe Magellan poll may be only one poll, but the firm is a Republican affiliated polling company. If the next poll from another pollster (especially Rasmussen) has similar results, Poutine's post about Carmona and name recognition may be spot on. A similar poll result could change this race from "Leans GOP" to "Toss Up". That would force Republicans to spend a bunch of bucks defending a Senate seat they previously thought was in the bag; money that could have been spent in Missouri, Montana or Massachusetts.

Joseph Robidoux III
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US Senate: Arizona

#8

Post by Joseph Robidoux III »

Update:





http://i1143.photobucket.com/albums/n63 ... 10-03a.jpg


http://i1143.photobucket.com/albums/n63 ... 10-03b.jpg


[/break1]realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/az/arizona_senate_flake_vs_carmona-3005.html]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -3005.html





After adjusting PPP results (similar to doing the same for Rasmussen) I'll guess that Congressman Flake enjoys approximately a 2pt lead.


There are still reasons to think this race could shift back in Flake's favor. The 12% of voters who are undecided prefer Mitt Romney over Barack Obama for President by a 58/37 margin, so there's reason to think they might end up breaking toward Flake in the end.





One thing there's zero doubt about: who would have thought two months ago Democratic prospects in the Arizona Senate race would be better than Republican ones in the Missouri contest?Whoda thunk it?








For :geezer:


Arizona may go Democratic in the Presidential race sometime but it doesn't appear likely to be this year. We find Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama 53-44 in the state. This is a rare state where a majority of voters actually see Romney favorably. 54% have a positive opinion of him to 42% with a negative one. And Obama's quite unpopular with just 40% of voters approving of him to 57% who disapprove.


[/break1]publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/carmona-up-2-romney-by-9-in-arizona.html]http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main ... izona.htmlNevada use to be a reliably red state, not any more. Arizona will follow suit.

A Legal Lohengrin
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US Senate: Arizona

#9

Post by A Legal Lohengrin »

It helps Flake that he isn't a teabagging crazy. If he were, he'd probably be down by the same amount, or more.

Joseph Robidoux III
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US Senate: Arizona

#10

Post by Joseph Robidoux III »

There was a teabagger in the Republican primary (Will Cardon) and Congressman Flake kicked his ass pretty hard.–U.S Senate (open seat)Richard Carmona (D) 287737Wil Cardon (R) 109646Jeff Flake (R) 355573Bryan Hackbarth (R) 19070Clair Van Steenwyk (R) 28949[/break1]com/community/2012/08/28/2012-az-primary-election-results-contested-races/]http://tucsoncitizen.com/community/2012 ... ted-races/

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Suranis
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US Senate: Arizona

#11

Post by Suranis »

Outvoting your opponent by over 3 to 1 counts as hammering in anyones book. Ouch.
The difference between the Middle Ages, and the Age of the Internet, is that in the Middle Ages no-one thought the Earth was flat.

Joseph Robidoux III
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US Senate: Arizona

#12

Post by Joseph Robidoux III »

Richard Carmona has surprised a lot of folks, including some Republicans who earlier thought this race was in the bag.Outside political trackers have declared the race a tossup. "All of a sudden, this is a real race," said Chuck Coughlin, who heads a Phoenix-based Republican political consulting firm.Republican reinforcements are now flowing into Arizona to bolster Mr. Flake in the contest to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Jon Kyl. The conservative Club for Growth is spending $500,000 on television ads to support the Republican. FreedomWorks for America, a tea-party-backed political-action committee that usually operates in swing states, opened an office to back Mr. Flake and recently activated volunteers across the state.And the National Republican Senatorial Committee made a "substantial ad buy" to support Mr. Flake, according to an NRSC official. The ads were scheduled to run in the Phoenix market through Thursday. [/break1]wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443493304578036320829909676.html?mod=googlenews_wsj]http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000087 ... lenews_wsjIt appears somebody predicted this a few months back.Carmona's main issue here is simply name recognition. He may have been Surgeon General, but who cares about Surgeon Generals? Flake is a very well-respected Congressman who centrist Democrats like myself even admire. But Carmona fits the profile perfectly of the kind of Democrat Arizonans like to elect. Expect these poll numbers to change with time, especially now that Bivens has dropped out.

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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater
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US Senate: Arizona

#13

Post by Dr. Kenneth Noisewater »

Not exactly over yet. Even though Carmona conceded on the 6th with the outstanding provisional ballots now being counted Carmona is gaining votes. The deficit went from 6% to 4% and there are still more than 300,000 left to count.[/break1]voxxi.com/richard-carmona-arizona-ballot/]http://www.voxxi.com/richard-carmona-arizona-ballot/

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esseff44
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US Senate: Arizona

#14

Post by esseff44 »

Not exactly over yet. Even though Carmona conceded on the 6th with the outstanding provisional ballots now being counted Carmona is gaining votes. The deficit went from 6% to 4% and there are still more than 300,000 left to count.[/break1]voxxi.com/richard-carmona-arizona-ballot/]http://www.voxxi.com/richard-carmona-arizona-ballot/I thought he took back his concession. Has there been an analysis on where the uncounted votes are coming from and what the political leanings of those areas. Rachel said there's a deadline for an official report coming up and at the rate they are counting they are not going to be any where near finished by then. Arizona is worse that Florida this time.! {SMILIES_PATH}/pray.gif {SMILIES_PATH}/pray.gif {SMILIES_PATH}/pray.gif {SMILIES_PATH}/pray.gif for Carmona to come out on top.

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US Senate: Arizona

#15

Post by ducktape »

As of today, there are about 163,500 left to count, most of them provisional.[/break1]wordpress.com/2012/11/15/]http://azsos.wordpress.com/2012/11/15/

poutine
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US Senate: Arizona

#16

Post by poutine »

Carmona is down by 81,079 votes per the AZSOS. There's no way he can make up that deficit with only 163,500 votes left to be counted. He'd have to win over 99.6% of those remaining votes.

poutine
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#17

Post by poutine »

Not exactly over yet. Even though Carmona conceded on the 6th with the outstanding provisional ballots now being counted Carmona is gaining votes. The deficit went from 6% to 4% and there are still more than 300,000 left to count.[/break1]voxxi.com/richard-carmona-arizona-ballot/]http://www.voxxi.com/richard-carmona-arizona-ballot/I thought he took back his concession. Has there been an analysis on where the uncounted votes are coming from and what the political leanings of those areas. Rachel said there's a deadline for an official report coming up and at the rate they are counting they are not going to be any where near finished by then. Arizona is worse that Florida this time.! {SMILIES_PATH}/pray.gif {SMILIES_PATH}/pray.gif {SMILIES_PATH}/pray.gif {SMILIES_PATH}/pray.gif for Carmona to come out on top.The uncounted votes are from Maricopa County, one of the largest counties in America (so it's hard to generalize). Phoenix is a Democratic stronghold, so if that's the source of the hold-ups, it plays in Carmona's favor. But the eastern suburbs are conservative.

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esseff44
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US Senate: Arizona

#18

Post by esseff44 »

Thanks for the update.

borealis
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US Senate: Arizona

#19

Post by borealis »

Not exactly over yet. Even though Carmona conceded on the 6th with the outstanding provisional ballots now being counted Carmona is gaining votes. The deficit went from 6% to 4% and there are still more than 300,000 left to count.[/break1]voxxi.com/richard-carmona-arizona-ballot/]http://www.voxxi.com/richard-carmona-arizona-ballot/I thought he took back his concession. Has there been an analysis on where the uncounted votes are coming from and what the political leanings of those areas. Rachel said there's a deadline for an official report coming up and at the rate they are counting they are not going to be any where near finished by then. Arizona is worse that Florida this time.! {SMILIES_PATH}/pray.gif {SMILIES_PATH}/pray.gif {SMILIES_PATH}/pray.gif {SMILIES_PATH}/pray.gif for Carmona to come out on top.The uncounted votes are from Maricopa County, one of the largest counties in America (so it's hard to generalize). Phoenix is a Democratic stronghold, so if that's the source of the hold-ups, it plays in Carmona's favor. But the eastern suburbs are conservative.??? Makes you wonder if Sheriff Joe friends had a hand in messing up the vote too. If the voters had been given regular ballots he would not still be sheriff. Wonder who he paid to mess with the records. :-k :-k

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