US Senate: Nevada

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Joseph Robidoux III
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US Senate: Nevada

#1

Post by Joseph Robidoux III »

Congresswoman Shelley Berkley (NV-01) raised $1.2m (almost double that of Sen Dean Heller) during the 3rd quarter. Heller, then 2nd district congressman, was appointed to fill the unexpired term of former Senator John Ensign. This is the second consecutive quarter that Berkley has outraised Heller.Her $1.2 million in the second quarter came from 2,903 supporters; her $1.2 million in the third quarter – which the Berkley camp says is actually slightly more than $1.2 million – came from 3,412, her campaign director said.[/break1]lasvegassun.com/news/2011/oct/06/shelley-berkleys-senate-campaign-raises-another-12/]http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2011/oc ... nother-12/This is a winnable seat for Democrats that just months ago was in the bag for Republicans.
Joseph Robidoux III
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US Senate: Nevada

#2

Post by Joseph Robidoux III »

Democratic Congresswoman Shelley Berkley has pulled into a statistical tie with Republican US Senator Dean Heller.Berkley, a seven-term Las Vegas lawmaker representing the state's 1st Congressional District, edges Heller, 44 percent to 43 percent, among registered voters, a Las Vegas Review-Journal/8NewsNow survey shows. The lead is within the poll's margin of error but delivers good news for Democrats hoping to power an upset against Heller, a former congressman tapped by GOP Gov. Brian Sandoval in May to replace John Ensign, who resigned his Senate post earlier this year amid an ethics investigation.[/break1]realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/12/23/berkley_heller_tied_in_nevada_senate_race.html]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articl ... _race.html[/break1]lvrj.com/news/poll-berkley-holds-slim-lead-over-heller-for-senate-seat-136131218.html]http://www.lvrj.com/news/poll-berkley-h ... 31218.htmlSome earlier polls are available at the link below.[/break1]realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heller_vs_berkley-1894.html]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -1894.htmlRealClearPolitics presently has this race as a toss-up. A Berkley win in Nevada along with an Elizabeth Warren win in Massachusetts would match the expected Republican flips in North Dakota and Nebraska.
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TollandRCR
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US Senate: Nevada

#3

Post by TollandRCR »

The "incumbent advantage" has not been as strong for persons who were appointed to fill unexpired terms compared to those elected to the office. Ensign may have lost this seat for the Republicans.





We may still have much to learn about the “Christian-oriented group house” that Ensign and Coburn occupied. This is the group whose most prominent activity is the National Prayer Breakfast at the White House. The group meets in the Capitol, the Pentagon, and elsewhere in Washington and Virginia. TPM Muckraker [link]Did A Shadowy Christian Group Help Keep Ensign’s Secret?,http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.c ... gns_se.php[/link] Emphasis mine.


In The Family: The Secret Fundamentalism at the Heart of American Power, published last year, the journalist Jeff Sharlet reported that both Ensign and Coburn — as well as several other members of Congress of both parties, but predominantly Republicans — are members of a secretive and publicity-shy religious organization founded in 1935 that aims, broadly speaking, to forge ties with decision-makers around the world in order to put Christian teachings at the center of public policy. Elsewhere in the book, Sharlet added that Ensign and Coburn each at times lived at the Family’s group home for members of Congress, described as a “four-story red-brick Washington townhouse, a former convent at 133 C St SE, run by a Family affiliate called the C Street Foundation.” (The Atlantic’s Josh Green wrote about Hillary Clinton’s ties to the group, in the context of a larger profile of the then-senator, in 2006.This group has been around long enough to have accumulated substantial wealth and to have set its roots in many statehouses as well as in the Federal government. From out of the Pacific Northwest, where people often speak their minds clearly, [link]The Family: a Secretive Christian Fundamentalist Organization,http://www.salem-news.com/articles/augu ... -re-ji.php[/link]


The Family is privately funded and generally practices strict secrecy about its members or activities and as such, avoids publicity and asks its members not to speak about the group; some members have denied that the Family exists.





The Family has operated under many names, some active, and some no longer in existence: National Committee for Christian Leadership, International Christian Leadership, the National Leadership Council, Fellowship House, the Fellowship Foundation, the National Fellowship Council, the International Foundation. These groups are intended to draw attention away from the Family, and to prevent it from becoming “a target for misunderstanding.”





In a document entitled “Our Common Agreement as a Core Group,” members of the Family are instructed to form a “core group,” or a “cell,” which is defined as “a publicly invisible but privately identifiable group of companions.” A document called “Thoughts on a Core Group” explains that “Communists use cells as their basic structure. The mafia operates like this, and the basic unit of the Marine Corps is the four man squad. Hitler, Lenin, and many others understood the power of a small core of people.” The primary purpose of a core group is not to become an “action group,” but an invisible “believing group.” However, activity normally grows out of agreements reached in faith and in prayer around the person of Jesus Christ.


In the long run, this group may be far more dangerous to democracy in America than the Tea Party ever had a chance to be. They have allies in pulpits across the land.





Why Hillary? Perhaps she was flattered by an invitation from an elder in the Senate. [link]AlterNet,http://www.alternet.org/story/16167[/link] tries to name some of those who are or have been members:


The Family is, in its own words, an "invisible" association, though its membership has always consisted mostly of public men. Senators Don Nickles (R., Okla.), Charles Grassley (R., Iowa), Pete Domenici (R., N.Mex.), John Ensign (R., Nev.), James Inhofe (R., Okla.), Bill Nelson (D., Fla.), and Conrad Burns (R., Mont.) are referred to as "members," as are Representatives Jim DeMint (R., S.C.), Frank Wolf (R., Va.), Joseph Pitts (R., Pa.), Zach Wamp (R., Tenn.), and Bart Stupak (D., Mich.).If Hillary were indeed a member, it is hard to imagine her being seduced by either Nelson or Stupak. AlterNet's list may have been incomplete as to the membership when Hillary supposedly made such a decision. I find it repugnant that the Senator and now our Secretary of State would have for even a moment considered commitment to a mission "in order to put Christian teachings at the center of public policy."
“The truth is, we know so little about life, we don’t really know what the good news is and what the bad news is.” Kurt Vonnegut
Joseph Robidoux III
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US Senate: Nevada

#4

Post by Joseph Robidoux III »

This race is still considered a "Toss Up" by Real Clear Politics, Cook Political Report and probably a few others.
US Senate Nevada 2012-04-04.JPG
[/break1]realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heller_vs_berkley-1894.html]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -1894.html
Joseph Robidoux III
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US Senate: Nevada

#5

Post by Joseph Robidoux III »

Since my last post on this race Rasmussen had Sen Heller (R-NV) enjoying leads of 11pts (4/30-4/30) and 9pts (7/24-7/24). All the other surveys posted on Real Clear Politics except for one by LVRJ/SurveyUSA (5pts) showed Heller in the lead but never by more than 3pts. Rasmussen's latest survey (9/18-9/18) has Heller down to a 1pt lead.[/break1]realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heller_vs_berkley-1894.html]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -1894.htmlA Rasmussen lead of only 1pt can't be good news for Heller. The next survey by either the Las Vegas Review-Journal or PPP should be interesting.This race is still definitely a possible flip for Democrats.
Joseph Robidoux III
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US Senate: Nevada

#6

Post by Joseph Robidoux III »

Notice the +3 Heller spreads from the first 2 pollsters. You don't see that everyday 3 weeks prior to an election. Notice the Gravis Marketing poll also, too. They are a friggin' joke.http://i1143.photobucket.com/albums/n63 ... pgAnalysis courtesy of Real Clear Politics.http://i1143.photobucket.com/albums/n63 ... 10-10b.jpg[/break1]realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heller_vs_berkley-1894.html]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -1894.html
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Piffle
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US Senate: Nevada

#7

Post by Piffle »

Gravis Marketing (??) shows Heller +17 and they included that in the poll average? [-( Geez. If ever an outlier needed trimming...
Joseph Robidoux III
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US Senate: Nevada

#8

Post by Joseph Robidoux III »

An ad by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee suggesting Sen Heller is harmful to Nevada women.
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Sterngard Friegen
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US Senate: Nevada

#9

Post by Sterngard Friegen »

Terrible.
Joseph Robidoux III
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US Senate: Nevada

#10

Post by Joseph Robidoux III »

Finally a race that isn't going as expected.http://i1143.photobucket.com/albums/n63 ... 11-06a.jpg[/break1]ktnv.com/elections/election-results-2012.html#U.S._Senate_]http://www.ktnv.com/elections/election- ... S._Senate_This is a race I wouldn't mind being wrong about.
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Sterngard Friegen
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#11

Post by Sterngard Friegen »

Depends on whether the votes are coming from the north (red Washoe County and Reno) or the South (blue Clark County and Lost Wages). Where the votes come from is crucial although if memory serves the Boss won Washoe County in 2008.
Joseph Robidoux III
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US Senate: Nevada

#12

Post by Joseph Robidoux III »

The US Senate seat from Nevada is a Republican hold.Nevada Republican Dean Heller will hold on to his U.S. Senate seat after narrowly defeating Democrat Shelley Berkley. Berkley conceded the race early Wednesday as results continued coming in showing Heller would be the victor.[/break1]8newsnow.com/story/20017375/gops-heller-beats-berkley-for-nevada-senate-seat]http://www.8newsnow.com/story/20017375/ ... enate-seathttp://i1143.photobucket.com/albums/n630/Joseph_Robidoux_III/Politics/USSenateNV2012-11-07.jpg[/break1]ktnv.com/elections/election-results-2012.html#U.S._Senate_]http://www.ktnv.com/elections/election- ... S._Senate_
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