2012: Ohio

Joseph Robidoux III
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2012: Ohio

#1

Post by Joseph Robidoux III » Wed May 09, 2012 2:31 am

Wow! Look at the jump this week. Must have been the River City Lady telling some folks to go to Columbus.
Ohio 2012-05-09a.JPG
Actually when you review the polls from last November to the present, I'm surprised Ohio is still listed as a "Toss Up" by Real Clear Politics. When Rasmussen has the Republican behind by 4pts, you know the Democrat has a lead.
Ohio 2012-05-09b.JPG
[/break1]realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -1860.htmlNote to the River City Lady: I'm not suggesting anyone take their foot off the pedal. I'm just acknowledging the results of some hard work by a lot of good folks, including you.



MaineSkeptic
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2012: Ohio

#2

Post by MaineSkeptic » Wed May 09, 2012 1:49 pm

It's a long way from May to November.And the days dwindle down to a precious few.



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2012: Ohio

#3

Post by Foggy » Wed May 09, 2012 4:01 pm

:-({|= :rimshot:


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Joseph Robidoux III
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2012: Ohio

#4

Post by Joseph Robidoux III » Wed May 30, 2012 12:30 am

I've heard Ohio referred to as 1 of the 4 toss up states Rmoney needs to split with Pres Obama if Rmoney is to have a realistic chance of winning the presidency. The other three are Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania. The key word is realistic. Rmoney could lose MI, OH and PA and still reach 270 electoral votes. That would require him to run the table (minus NH or IA or NV) and that is not very probable.
Ohio 2012-05-29.JPG
[/break1]realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -1860.htmlCheck my post above for older Ohio polls.More bad news for Rmoney; Michigan and Pennsylvania are turning blue, more so than Ohio.



Joseph Robidoux III
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2012: Ohio

#5

Post by Joseph Robidoux III » Sat Jun 30, 2012 11:49 am

Update:





Still a Toss Up state but no pollster except Rasmussen or Purple Strategies has Rmoney with any lead.

Ohio 2012-06-30a.JPG

[/break1]realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -1860.html



Joseph Robidoux III
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2012: Ohio

#6

Post by Joseph Robidoux III » Tue Oct 02, 2012 12:08 am

Anyone see a trend here starting Sept 7, 2012?





http://i1143.photobucket.com/albums/n63 ... ollAvg.jpg


[/break1]realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -1860.html





Toss up states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio and Florida. Ohio is next to be scratched off this list and soon.





If your interested in this graph I recommend you use the link to the RCP site. There are some features I couldn't put on a jpg.



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esseff44
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2012: Ohio

#7

Post by esseff44 » Tue Oct 02, 2012 1:12 am

Forty-seven per cent. That will go down in US political history as some kind of marker. It is a statement that has legs. It stands on its own two feet and screams at the voters what Romney and his friends think of them. The effect has not worn off. It still shocks anew when it's replayed. It wasn't a gaffe. It was the closest the public has come to seeing and hearing the real person behind the GOP front-runner's image.The question is what percentage of US voters just assume that they are in that discounted 47%. It's a motivator.



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2012: Ohio

#8

Post by Emma » Tue Oct 02, 2012 2:43 am

Forty-seven per cent. That will go down in US political history as some kind of marker. It is a statement that has legs. It stands on its own two feet and screams at the voters what Romney and his friends think of them. The effect has not worn off. [highlight]It still shocks anew when it's replayed.[/highlight] It wasn't a gaffe. It was the closest the public has come to seeing and hearing the real person behind the GOP front-runner's image.





The question is what percentage of US voters just assume that they are in that discounted 47%. It's a motivator.The campaign needs to continue to highlight those comments at every opportunity, because Romney simply can't defend his own words. His tense desperation as he tries to walk it back paints him as defensive and insincere when contrasted with his demeanor at the fundraiser and the apparent ease with which he wrote off nearly half the country. And every time he does attempt to defend himself, he risks exposing even more voters to that clip.



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2012: Ohio

#9

Post by Emma » Tue Oct 02, 2012 3:15 am




Emma
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2012: Ohio

#10

Post by Emma » Tue Oct 02, 2012 8:32 pm

8-)





[/break1]toledoblade.com/Politics/2012/10/02/Turnout-for-first-day-of-early-voting-nearly-double-that-of-2008.html]http://www.toledoblade.com/Politics/201 ... -2008.html





Turnout for first day of early voting nearly double that of 2008





It was an overwhelmingly Democratic day. Of the 928 voters, 696 were Democrats, 40 were Republicans, and the rest, 192, were members of other parties or were not affiliated with a party. There was a similar balance in favor of Democrats on the first day of early voting in 2008, when President Obama won in Lucas County and Ohio.





Jeff Stephens, 64, of Whitehouse, said "just wanted to get my vote in."





"Anything can happen between now and Election Day and I didn't want to miss voting if I get run over by a Greyhound bus or something," Mr.Stephens said. :lol:



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TollandRCR
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2012: Ohio

#11

Post by TollandRCR » Tue Oct 09, 2012 5:15 pm

CNN October 9, 2012The race for Ohio's 18 electoral votes has tightened, with 51% of likely voters there saying they support President Barack Obama and 47% backing Mitt Romney, according to a CNN/ORC International Poll. The survey was conducted after last week's presidential debate. Obama's 4-point advantage is within the poll's sampling error. On a national level, a CNN Poll of Polls that averages three nonpartisan surveys shows that Romney has the support of 48% of likely voters and Obama 47%.


“The truth is, we know so little about life, we don’t really know what the good news is and what the bad news is.” Kurt Vonnegut

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2012: Ohio

#12

Post by Reality Check » Wed Oct 10, 2012 9:06 am

My prediction is that this week will be the high water mark for Romney and he will recede from the second debate to a solid 4 - 6 point win for Obama. The EV total will be less than 2008 but in the the 320 to 330 range for Obama.


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2012: Ohio

#13

Post by BillTheCat » Wed Oct 10, 2012 1:56 pm

I'm kinda surprised no one here is reporting on this - Husted is a goddamned scumbag but I think he will still lose this BS fight he is forcing:Jon Husted, Ohio GOP Secretary Of State, Appealing Early Voting Decision To Supreme Court http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/0 ... 51604.html


'But I don't want to go among mad people,' said Alice. 'Oh, you can't help that,' said the cat. 'We're all mad here.'
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#14

Post by realist » Wed Oct 10, 2012 1:58 pm

I'm kinda surprised no one here is reporting on this - Husted is a goddamned scumbag but I think he will still lose this BS fight he is forcing:Jon Husted, Ohio GOP Secretary Of State, Appealing Early Voting Decision To Supreme Court http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/0 ... mlAkshully, it was reported, just in a different thread. http://www.thefogbow.com/forum/viewtopi ... ED#p427625


ImageX 4 ImageX36
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BillTheCat
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2012: Ohio

#15

Post by BillTheCat » Wed Oct 10, 2012 2:35 pm

I'm kinda surprised no one here is reporting on this - Husted is a goddamned scumbag but I think he will still lose this BS fight he is forcing:Jon Husted, Ohio GOP Secretary Of State, Appealing Early Voting Decision To Supreme Court http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/0 ... mlAkshully, it was reported, just in a different thread. http://www.thefogbow.com/forum/viewtopi ... p427625doh! #-o Thanks Realist.. I guess I should re-aquaint myself with "Search" hehe :oops:


'But I don't want to go among mad people,' said Alice. 'Oh, you can't help that,' said the cat. 'We're all mad here.'
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Joseph Robidoux III
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2012: Ohio

#16

Post by Joseph Robidoux III » Sun Oct 14, 2012 10:06 pm

Update:





The two recent polls from PPP and Rasmussen are encouraging. It appears Pres Obama is still somewhere between +2 and +3 in Ohio. The undecided/other are 3pts with PPP and 5pts according to Rasmussen.


This may be one of Gravis Marketing's better poll results (at least they're in the ballpark).


http://i1143.photobucket.com/albums/n63 ... -10-14.jpg


[/break1]realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -1860.html



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TollandRCR
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2012: Ohio

#17

Post by TollandRCR » Mon Oct 15, 2012 7:49 am

A comment on Intrade:There are also new reports every day about the gigantic crowds Romney is pulling in Ohio.Is this true?


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2012: Ohio

#18

Post by neonzx » Mon Oct 15, 2012 8:01 am

A comment on Intrade:


There are also new reports every day about the gigantic crowds Romney is pulling in Ohio.Is this true?From Saturday's [link]Columbus Dispatch,http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories ... rally.html[/link]:





“I’ve had the fun of going back and forth across Ohio, and this week, I was also in Florida and Iowa, ... in North Carolina and Virginia,” Romney told 8,500 people packed into the Lancaster Town Square last night for a rally featuring him and running mate Paul Ryan.





[...]





Romney was previously greeted by huge crowds in Cuyahoga Falls on Tuesday night (12,000 people) and in Sidney, Ohio, on Wednesday night (9,000), and both he and Ryan have campaign stops scheduled in the state today. Ryan also added a noon rally in Cincinnati on Monday.



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2012: Ohio

#19

Post by Suranis » Mon Oct 15, 2012 8:10 am

Well, somewhat.Freeperlink[/break1]freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2944725/posts]http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-new ... postsPolls tighten as Romney speaks to massive, 11,000 person, Ohio crowdCain TV ^ | October 14, 2012 | ROBERT LAURIEPosted on 14 October 2012 20:10:16 by Cincinatus' WifeA great speech in Lebanon yesterday, as Ohio polls continue to narrow"About a week ago, I had a debate. ...and I did enjoy myself."With that opening line, Mitt Romney had a massive crowd of 11,000 people eating out of his hand. The huge attendance caused the audience to spill over its initial boundaries and through the streets surrounding the stage. It was the latest event for Romney, who's now put in a staggering 34 Ohio appearances in his bid to win the must-have state.The speech, which focuses on the greatness of our nation, is a breath of fresh air for political wonks who've endured the last three years of morose, overly apologetic, presidential navel-gazing.The Caintv link in the article leads to (you guessed it) Herman Cain's TV site[/break1]standard.net/stories/2012/10/11/huge-crowd-romney-shocks-officials-ohio-town]http://www.standard.net/stories/2012/10 ... -ohio-townHuge crowd for Romney shocks officials in Ohio townBy Rachel LloydSidney (Ohio) Daily News staffFri, 10/12/2012 - 2:31pmSIDNEY, Ohio -- Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney received a warm reception on a cold evening at the Shelby County Fairgrounds Wednesday as he addressed a crowd estimated at more than 8,500 people, more than eight times the number expected to turn out.Josh Romney, one of five sons, introduced his father, describing the former governor of Massachusetts as "my hero and the next president of the United States."As the elder Romney took the stage, the sea of people rose into a breaking wave of cell phones and cameras to capture the momentous event, chanting "four more weeks, four more weeks!" Romney told the crowd he’d been watching President Barack Obama’s rallies hearing the chants of "four more years, but said, "I’ve been looking at my calendar and I think ’four more weeks’ is more appropriate."Romney, who will face the incumbent Obama at the polls in just under four weeks, appealed to his largely rural and working-class audience with his focus on jobs, health care and the estate tax. He commented several times on the size of the crowd and thanked everyone for coming out.Some shots of the "11000" crowd yesterday from [/break1]com/2012/10/13/massive-crowd-for-romney-in-lebanon-ohio/]http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/10/13 ... anon-ohio/https://pbs.twimg.com/media/A5HwS8RCYAE ... _7.jpgGood crowd but I'm not seeing 11000Obligatory Romney with kid shothttps://pbs.twimg.com/media/A5HwDN1CQAEJnOb.jpg


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neonzx
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2012: Ohio

#20

Post by neonzx » Mon Oct 15, 2012 9:05 am

Lebanon Ohio is in a deep red county thus I'd hope he could pull a good crowd.The population of Lebanon is only ~20,000 so a crowd of 11,000 would seem huge. Warren County went for McCain 68% to 31% If this is what 100,000 looks like:http://newsgrist.typepad.com/underbelly ... _2.jpgThen there weren't 11,000 on that small town street.



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2012: Ohio

#21

Post by Foggy » Mon Oct 15, 2012 9:55 am

People, people, people! [-X





We're talking about OHIO, for corn snake!








THIS is what 100,000 people looks like, in Ohio:








http://www.skylinepictures.com/Ohio_Sta ... rge_SS.JPG


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2012: Ohio

#22

Post by kate520 » Mon Oct 15, 2012 1:06 pm

How many of them were bused in from elsewhere? How much did they pay them to attend?


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Joseph Robidoux III
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2012: Ohio

#23

Post by Joseph Robidoux III » Mon Oct 15, 2012 2:34 pm

Some info from the Oct 12-13 Public Policy Polling poll.Early Voting:The key finding on this poll may be how the early voters are breaking out. 19% of people say they've already cast their ballots and they report having voted for Obama by a 76-24 margin. Romney has a 51-45 advantage with those who haven't voted yet, but the numbers make it clear that he already has a lot of ground to make up in the final three weeks before the election.Post Debate Rmoney Favorability NumbersWe've found a major improvement in Mitt Romney's image in most of the states that we've polled since the Presidential debate, but Ohio is an exception. His favorability now is a 45/51 spread, showing no improvement from his 45/49 breakdown two weeks ago. Obama meanwhile has seen a small spike in his approval rating, from 48/49 to 50/48.Rmoney And The Auto Industry:One reason Romney might be struggling to get traction in Ohio even as he surges elsewhere is his record on the auto bailout. Voters in the state support it by a 54/37 margin, including 58/35 with independents. They think Obama would be better than Romney for the auto industry 50/43, and 79% of voters consider it to be an important issue including 42% who say it's 'very important.'
Off Topic
The Orange One Isn't Getting A Whole Lotta Love:John Boehner's very unpopular in his home state with a 33/46 approval rating.[/break1]publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-leads-51-46-in-ohio.html#more]http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main ... .html#more



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