2012: Florida

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realist
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2012: Florida

#26

Post by realist » Fri Aug 17, 2012 1:12 pm

From Reuters





[link]U.S. court says Florida's early voting rules discriminatory,http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/ ... ND20120817[/link]





New rules that reduce the number of early voting days in Florida are an unfair burden on minorities, a U.S. federal court said in a ruling that upheld the U.S. Justice Department's decision to block the changes in five of the state's 67 counties.





The Justice Department and civil rights groups had argued that a 2011 Florida law allowing counties to reduce the window for early voting from 96 hours per week to as few as 48 made it more difficult for minorities to vote than whites.





[...]





In its ruling late on Thursday, a three-judge panel of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia said in an unsigned opinion that Florida failed to prove its law didn't discriminate.





[...]





Regardless of whether Florida appeals, opponents of the voting hours reductions now will challenge them in the state's 62 other counties on the grounds that they are not uniform with the rest of the state.


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A Legal Lohengrin
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#27

Post by A Legal Lohengrin » Fri Aug 17, 2012 1:22 pm

All this legal activity raises the question of whether SCROTUS will attempt to rig the election again this year, like they did in 2000.



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#28

Post by Sterngard Friegen » Fri Aug 17, 2012 2:29 pm

All this legal activity raises the question of whether SCROTUS will attempt to rig the election again this year, like they did in 2000.If Justice Kennedy wants Rmoney to be POTUS I'm sure they'll intervene. They're probably getting ready to return to D.C. early. Scalia, Alito, Chamber-of-Commerce and Thomas generally love voter suppression laws. If they could revive the poll tax they would.



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Addie
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#29

Post by Addie » Sat Sep 08, 2012 4:12 pm

[/break1]news-press.com/article/20120908/NEWS0107/120908007/0/COLUMNISTS09/Former-President-Bill-Clinton-campaign-Obama-Florida]News-Press





Former President Bill Clinton to campaign for Obama in Florida





The Obama campaign announced today that former President Bill Clinton will campaign in Florida next week.





On Tuesday, Clinton will deliver remarks at a campaign event in the Miami area, and on Wednesday, he speak at a campaign event in the Orlando area.


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#30

Post by A Legal Lohengrin » Sat Sep 08, 2012 4:25 pm

[/break1]news-press.com/article/20120908/NEWS0107/120908007/0/COLUMNISTS09/Former-President-Bill-Clinton-campaign-Obama-Florida]News-Press





Former President Bill Clinton to campaign for Obama in Florida





The Obama campaign announced today that former President Bill Clinton will campaign in Florida next week.





On Tuesday, Clinton will deliver remarks at a campaign event in the Miami area, and on Wednesday, he speak at a campaign event in the Orlando area.I note that Obama is not repeating the catastrophic error of Al Gore in 2000, who attempted to distance himself from Bill Clinton, when if anything, the only reason to vote for him (other than Dubya) was that he had been Clinton's VP.





Gore further screwed up by choosing that simpering little traitor Joe Lieberman as his running mate.



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esseff44
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#31

Post by esseff44 » Sat Sep 08, 2012 4:38 pm

Both Clinton and Obama know what's at stake and what has to get done and what each of their roles are. Bill hits the trail and explains things so people can understand them and he helps them remember how we got in this mess and what it takes to get us out. Obama keeps on keeping on being the president and keeps his powder dry for the debates.



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Addie
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#32

Post by Addie » Sat Sep 08, 2012 6:34 pm

I had that very thought today, Loh.


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#33

Post by MaineSkeptic » Sat Sep 08, 2012 6:41 pm

I had a thought while Clinton was speaking.I had heard a couple of hours earlier that Obama was en route to Charlotte. And as soon as I heard Clinton say, "We're here to nominate a President, and I've got one in mind.", I was sure I knew why Obama was going -- to take no chances on what name Clinton would come up with!



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#34

Post by Addie » Sun Sep 23, 2012 9:17 pm

[link]PPP Florida poll,http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main ... orida.html[/link]





Obama leads by 4 in Florida





PPP's newest Florida poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by a 50-46 margin in the state. That represents a 3 point improvement for Obama since PPP's last poll of the state, which was conducted the weekend after the Republican convention. It represents the largest lead PPP has found for Obama in Florida since early June.





Mitt Romney's image with Floridians has taken a turn in the wrong direction since his party gathered in Tampa for its convention. His favorability has dropped a net 9 points from +2 at 49/47 over Labor Day weekend to now -7 at 44/51. Romney's comments about the '47%' this week aren't doing him any favors. 89% of voters are familiar with them and 50% consider them to have been inappropriate to 44% who were ok with them. Most troubling for Romney independent voters considered the comments improper by a 58/37 margin and he trails Obama by a 51/40 spread with those folks who could determine the final outcome in the state.





Obama's lead in Florida isn't all about Romney losing ground though. He's pretty strong in his own right with 51% of voters approving of him to 47% who disapprove. That's up a net 7 points from 47/50 before the Democratic convention. This is the first time since April we've found his approval over 50% in the state. Perhaps more importantly Florida voters trust Obama over Romney on the issue of the economy by the same 50/46 margin as the overall numbers- Romney's not getting any traction on that front. And Obama leads 50-45 in terms of who voters have more faith in on foreign policy. ...





One other important finding in Florida is that contra conventional wisdom for most of the year, Democrats are actually slightly more excited about voting this fall than Republicans are. 72% of Democrats say they're 'very excited' to vote in the election compared to 68% of GOP voters. And the single group most excited about voting is African Americans, 82% of whom say they are very excited.


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Sterngard Friegen
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#35

Post by Sterngard Friegen » Sun Sep 23, 2012 9:33 pm

centerhttp://torinelson.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/burnt-toast.jpg[/img]



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#36

Post by TollandRCR » Sun Sep 23, 2012 9:45 pm

That PPP poll may well be underestimating the support for President Obama and overestimating the support for Romney. Federal law prohibits the use of automated dialers to dial cell phones in the U.S. You have to use your little fingers to place a call to a cell phone. PPP is one of the robo-dialing or automated polling firms that thus do not reach the cell-phone-only population (two others are Rasmussen and Gravis Marketing). Support for the President is higher among the population using only cell phones, which tends to be a younger population. Outside the Beltway Sept. 22, 2012 [link]Polls That Include Cell Phones More Likely To Show Obama Leading,http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/polls- ... a-leading/[/link]At this point, though, it seems almost absurd for any poll to exclude cell phone only people: Roughly one third of American households rely solely on mobile phones and do not have landlines, meaning they will simply be excluded by polls that call landlines only. Potential voters who rely on cellphones belong to more Democratic-leaning demographic groups than those which don’t, and there is reasonably strong empirical evidence that the failure to include them in polls can bias the results against Democrats, even after demographic weightings are applied.It is very hard to weight a sample so that the bias introduced by dialing only land lines is eliminated. I was taught that such a thing is impossible; weights cannot make a bad sample good.


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#37

Post by A Legal Lohengrin » Mon Sep 24, 2012 11:23 am

Outside the Beltway Sept. 22, 2012 [link]Polls That Include Cell Phones More Likely To Show Obama Leading,http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/polls- ... a-leading/[/link]At this point, though, it seems almost absurd for any poll to exclude cell phone only people: Roughly one third of American households rely solely on mobile phones and do not have landlines, meaning they will simply be excluded by polls that call landlines only.My only response to a pollster calling my cell phone is going to be "Don't you EVER fucking call this number again." Or something equally welcoming. I'm pretty sure most cell phone users are in this camp. So, I'm not sure how you avoid this bias, except by not using phones at all to take polls.



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#38

Post by Chilidog » Mon Sep 24, 2012 11:45 am

We no longer have a functional land line, just cells



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#39

Post by MRich » Mon Sep 24, 2012 11:49 am

My only response to a pollster calling my cell phone is going to be "Don't you EVER fucking call this number again." Or something equally welcoming.Good luck with that. I get so many junk phone calls on my land line that I don't answer if I don't recognize the caller ID or the phone number. The "do not call" list is such a joke, and if you tell these scammers not to call you any more, they either cuss you out or just hang up and call again later.



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#40

Post by A Legal Lohengrin » Mon Sep 24, 2012 11:52 am




My only response to a pollster calling my cell phone is going to be "Don't you EVER fucking call this number again." Or something equally welcoming.Good luck with that. I get so many junk phone calls on my land line that I don't answer if I don't recognize the caller ID or the phone number. The "do not call" list is such a joke, and if you tell these scammers not to call you any more, they either cuss you out or just hang up and call again later.Note, wasn't talking about land lines. I get almost no junk calls on my cell.



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MRich
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#41

Post by MRich » Mon Sep 24, 2012 11:53 am




My only response to a pollster calling my cell phone is going to be "Don't you EVER fucking call this number again." Or something equally welcoming.Good luck with that. I get so many junk phone calls on my land line that I don't answer if I don't recognize the caller ID or the phone number. The "do not call" list is such a joke, and if you tell these scammers not to call you any more, they either cuss you out or just hang up and call again later.Note, wasn't talking about land lines. I get almost no junk calls on my cell.I'm starting to get them on my cell too.



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#42

Post by DaveMuckey » Mon Sep 24, 2012 11:56 am

Off Topic
In some furrin' countries, you're not charged for incoming calls. Sounds like a good plan to me.



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#43

Post by esseff44 » Mon Sep 24, 2012 12:15 pm

Not having a land line phone for emergencies is taking a big risk in case of emergencies such as storms and earthquakes. Also, not having a land line phone that does not depend on electicity. Cell towers get overloaded or downed during emergencies and power lines are downed leaving millions without electrical power. The more old-fashioned back ups you have, the better. You can get measured service for a very small amount if you don't make a lot of calls on the land line.



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#44

Post by TollandRCR » Mon Sep 24, 2012 12:33 pm

Congress wisely prohibited robo-calling of exchanges known to be cell phones. Had it not done so, you would have only a computer to curse and a cost to pay for that call. In many or most other countries, the caller pays. The telephone was a replacement for a very expensive way of collecting polls, face-to-face interviews. Many of us old fuddy-duddies think the quality of interviews declined then. Mail does not work; about 1% of mailed questionnaires are returned. So people are now trying to use computers. E-mail is barred by professional standards (CASRO) unless the firm has your permission to survey you by e-mail. So firms create "panels" of people who consent to being interviewed for a while, usually in exchange for some payment or gift. There is a serious demographic bias in those panels unless you randomly sample from the population first and then, if necessary, provide connectivity and a computer-like device to households without that equipment. There is still the possibility of self-selection into the panel; who refuses to participate when sampled? I don't need a $4.95 calculator. With calls only to land lines, we are limping along by making adjustments to the weights (an 18 year old might count three times as much as a 65 year old). Most everybody views this as unacceptable in the long run. The poll may turn out to have been briefly a means for the people to let their opinions be known. Lord Bryce thought that the referendum would be our only means for expressing opinions, in the absence of the British provision for holding snap elections.


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#45

Post by kate520 » Mon Sep 24, 2012 4:32 pm

Not having a land line phone for emergencies is taking a big risk in case of emergencies such as storms and earthquakes. Also, not having a land line phone that does not depend on electicity. Cell towers get overloaded or downed during emergencies and power lines are downed leaving millions without electrical power. The more old-fashioned back ups you have, the better. You can get measured service for a very small amount if you don't make a lot of calls on the land line.I've also heard on the Clark Howard show that credit rating agencies ding you about 75 pts if you don't have a land line.


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#46

Post by Joseph Robidoux III » Sun Oct 14, 2012 9:38 pm

Real Clear Politics has added a new poll from Public Policy Polling. There's very few undecided/other left according to these polls. The PPP Rmoney +1 and Rasmussen Rmoney +4 lead me to believe Rmoney +2 or +3 is probably accurate. That's disappointing when you view the results from Sept 17 to Oct 1.http://i1143.photobucket.com/albums/n63 ... 10-14b.jpg[/break1]realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_romney_vs_obama-1883.html]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -1883.html



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#47

Post by Joseph Robidoux III » Mon Oct 15, 2012 2:46 pm

No surprise to anyone here:Romney and Obama's images have headed in difference directions since the Presidential debate. Voters have warmed up to Romney a good bit, going from giving him a negative favorability rating at 44/51 to a positive one at 50/47. Meanwhile Obama's approval numbers have gone the other way. Where before he was on positive ground with 51% of voters approving of him to 47% who disapproved, now he's in slightly negative territory at 48/50.[/break1]publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/romney-leads-by-1-in-tight-florida-race.html#more]http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main ... .html#more



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#48

Post by SueDB » Mon Oct 15, 2012 2:57 pm

No surprise to anyone here:Romney and Obama's images have headed in difference directions since the Presidential debate. Voters have warmed up to Romney a good bit, going from giving him a negative favorability rating at 44/51 to a positive one at 50/47. Meanwhile Obama's approval numbers have gone the other way. Where before he was on positive ground with 51% of voters approving of him to 47% who disapproved, now he's in slightly negative territory at 48/50.[/break1]publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/romney-leads-by-1-in-tight-florida-race.html#more]http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main ... .html#moreIn quite a number of polls I saw that RMoney got a bounce, but it has leveled off. Obama went down, but now looks to be on a slight upswing. I think regardless of whether you have decided to vote for one or the other...that folks are waiting on the last debate to rationalize their vote.


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#49

Post by Joseph Robidoux III » Fri Oct 26, 2012 12:13 am

Update:





Not a lot of change here in the past 11 days. Public Policy Polling and Rasmussen both have an additional poll listed on Real Clear Politics. PPP still has Rmoney at +1 and Rasmussen went from Rmoney +4 to Rmoney +5.





http://i1143.photobucket.com/albums/n63 ... -10-25.jpg


[/break1]realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_romney_vs_obama-1883.html]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -1883.html





Florida is still light pink but a trip by either Obama or Biden would make Rmoney nervous enough to fly in from wherever he presently is. Should Rmoney lose Florida it's time to cue the Don Meredith version of turn out the lights.



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#50

Post by Joseph Robidoux III » Thu Nov 08, 2012 8:02 am

Florida has a chance of not being decided until early Wednesday morning, long after everyone already knows who won the presidential race. This state would be a huge win for Pres Obama but it's critical for Rmoney. If you believe Rmoney's strategy is successfully defending every state McCain won then winning enough additional states to reach 270EVs, I don't see him winning without Ohio and Florida (yes it's possible, just not probable IMO).


[Florida poll snipped]


[/break1]realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_romney_vs_obama-1883.html]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -1883.htmlI gave those folks in Floriduh too much credit. Maybe they need to subcontract their election duties out to the Secretary of State of [pick a state]. It would be difficult to make the situation any worse.



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