2014 US Senate: Kansas

Joseph Robidoux III
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2014 US Senate: Kansas

#26

Post by Joseph Robidoux III » Wed Aug 06, 2014 9:31 am

Gotta wonder if some of the Teabaggers are so mad that they either won't vote, or they'll vote Dem.





Think of the PUMA nutz.There are enough Republicans in Kansas that if everyone who voted for Milton Wolf (106k+) stayed home this November, Sen Roberts could still win the general election comfortably.


1) There were approximately 260k Republican votes and approximately 65k Democratic votes in the two US Senate primary contests.


2) The Cook Political Report 2014 Partisan Voter Index rates the four Kansas congressional districts as R+23, R+8, R+6 and R+14.


[/break1]com/file/2013-04-47.pdf]http://cookpolitical.com/file/2013-04-47.pdf





With all due respect to SPen, I believe the Kansas Jayhawks football team has a better chance of beating the Texas Shorthorns than Chad Taylor does beating Sen Roberts this fall.



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#27

Post by Roboe » Fri Aug 08, 2014 11:11 am

I don't suppose Roberts' foot-in-mouth disease will actually hurt him with some of the moderates? There's been some spat about him not spending any time in Kansas at all, to which he delivered probably the best freudian slip:


"Every time I get an opponent, uh, I mean every time I get a chance, I'm home":mrgreen:



Joseph Robidoux III
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#28

Post by Joseph Robidoux III » Sun Aug 24, 2014 7:18 pm

With all due respect to SPen, I believe the Kansas Jayhawks football team has a better chance of beating the Texas Shorthorns than Chad Taylor does beating Sen Roberts this fall.[/break1]photobucket.com/user/Joseph_Robidoux_III/media/Politics/2014%20Elections/2014%20US%20Senate/Kansas/USSenateKS2014-08-24_zps804a3697.jpg.html]http://i1143.photobucket.com/albums/n63 ... 4a3697.jpg[/break1]realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ks/kansas_senate_roberts_vs_taylor-4318.html]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -4318.htmlI may have been a bit premature with that prediction.



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Dr. Kenneth Noisewater
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#29

Post by Dr. Kenneth Noisewater » Sun Aug 24, 2014 7:23 pm

Wow that's closer than anyone would have thought possible.



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#30

Post by SPen » Tue Aug 26, 2014 4:15 pm

Wow that's closer than anyone would have thought possible. Someone saw this coming, haha. The encouraging part of PPP's poll is that Roberts actually trails the Independent candidate on the ballot, 33%-43%. The Democrats could possibly have an opportunity if Taylor is willing to step aside and let Greg Orman take a real shot at Roberts. Orman has money and has been running ads, while Taylor just ran his first add a couple of days ago. If the DSCC and the national party got a reasonable assurance that Orman would caucus with the Democrats then they might support him. He's currently hedging like most "Independents" do; saying that he'll caucus with the majority in the best interests of his state.



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#31

Post by Dr. Kenneth Noisewater » Fri Aug 29, 2014 9:53 am

This is getting interesting. Survey USA Poll http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRep ... c687&c=243 Sounds like polling is getting tighters Taylor looks closer than he should be. They have Roberts at 37% Taylor at 32% Orman at 20% and the Libertarian at 4%



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#32

Post by Reality Check » Wed Sep 03, 2014 7:40 pm

Taylor dropped out and the Democrats may get behind the independent. Democratic nominee Chad Taylor drops out of Kansas Senate race


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#33

Post by Dr. Kenneth Noisewater » Wed Sep 03, 2014 7:55 pm

And now we're reminded of the PPP poll from August where in a head to head against Orman, Roberts trailed 43 to 33http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PP ... 819925.pdf



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#34

Post by Sterngard Friegen » Wed Sep 03, 2014 10:50 pm

:joy:



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#35

Post by SuzieC » Thu Sep 04, 2014 7:51 am




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mimi
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#36

Post by mimi » Thu Sep 04, 2014 4:42 pm

So there's a thing going on. :/ SOS Kovach sez Taylor gotta stay on the ballot. Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach said Thursday Democrat Chad Taylor did not comply with state law. He says Taylor didn't formally declare that he would be unable to serve if elected. Taylor Wednesday withdrew from the race without explanation, raising questions about whether he quit to give independent candidate Greg Orman a better shot at defeating three-term conservative Roberts, who has struggled to solidify re-election in a predominantly Republican state. http://www.jrn.com/kfdi/news/Chad-Taylo ... 03641.html Kobach said Taylor submitted a letter Wednesday to withdraw from the race but did not declare he was incapable of serving, which is also required.The Kansas Republican Party had questioned whether Taylor, the Shawnee County district attorney, could withdraw.Kobach held a news conference announcing his decision. He said the Republican Party did not influence his decision.Before the news conference, Taylor issued a statement saying he had been told that he had met the requirements to withdraw on Wednesday. Kobach said that did not happen. http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-gov ... 04835.html Rick Hasen sez... More on Whether Chad Taylor’s Withdrawal from #KSSEN is Kosher Posted on September 4, 2014 9:48 amby Rick HasenI earlier linked to coverage in The Hill and Hot Air which raises the question whether Democrat Chad Taylor’s withdrawal from the Kansas Senate race is allowed. The relevant statute, KS 25-306b( B) provides that a candidate can withdraw within a certain time frame: “Any person who has been nominated by any means for any national, state, county or township office who declares that they are incapable of fulfilling the duties of office if elected may cause such person’s name to be withdrawn from nomination by a request in writing, signed by the person and acknowledged before an officer qualified to take acknowledgments of deeds.”At issue is the “who declares that they are incapable of fulfilling the duties of office if elected.” Taylor’s letter did not so declare, and it looks like the deadline has passed. Now what?There do not appear to be any cases construing 25-306b. There is an attorney general opinion 92-66 (on Westlaw) which reads the statute broadly to allow presidential candidate Ross Perot to replace his vice presidential candidate on the ballot (even though the statute on its face did not provide for that). But that 1992 opinion predates the 1997 Kansas amendments to the statute, which specifically added the (ungrammatical) language about the candidate declaring he or she is incapable of fulfilling the needs. Nothing on Westlaw explains why the language was written in this way. more:http://electionlawblog.org/?p=64981 And an UPDATE: Chad Taylor Says KS SOS Office Said in Advance His Letter Was Sufficient to Withdraw from #KSSEN Posted on September 4, 2014 12:35 pmby Rick HasenWhoa if true, as they say. There are complicated issues about applying waiver and estoppel theories against the government. But if this ends up in court, I expect this fact would help an argument for withdrawal greatly. http://electionlawblog.org/?p=65006 maybe this will embiggen the text:https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bwtm2l-IEAAMQd5.png:large



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#37

Post by ducktape » Thu Sep 04, 2014 4:55 pm

Noted also that Kobach is on the Roberts Reelection Committee.



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#38

Post by gatsby » Thu Sep 04, 2014 5:07 pm

Meet Greg Orman, the man who could decide the Senate majority[snip]Orman, 45, is a political enigma. Over the years, he's donated money to both liberal Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.) and the National Republican Congressional Committee. He says he voted for President Obama in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012. And he won't reveal which side he would choose in the Senate. But national Democrats have been mum about Taylor's sudden departure, fueling speculation the party believes there is a very good chance Orman would side with them. Running in a deeply conservative state, Orman is carefully avoiding any move that would link him too closely with Democrats. At the same time, he's casting himself as a much more moderate alternative to Roberts, who he says has adopted "Ted Cruz's voting patterns."



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#39

Post by Suranis » Thu Sep 04, 2014 5:33 pm

Interesting that he is painting the gop candidate with Ted Cruz and painting him solidly into his corner. The logical conclusion is that he has figured that Cruz is not that popular in deep red Kansas. I wouldn't worry too much if they rule that the Dem cant actually drop out. If the Dem does not campaign at all its effectivly the same thing, even if his name remains on the ballot.


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#40

Post by Tomtech » Thu Sep 04, 2014 8:16 pm

Interesting that he is painting the gop candidate with Ted Cruz and painting him solidly into his corner. The logical conclusion is that he has figured that Cruz is not that popular in deep red Kansas. I wouldn't worry too much if they rule that the Dem cant actually drop out. If the Dem does not campaign at all its effectivly the same thing, even if his name remains on the ballot.Does Kansas have straight ticket voting? It may not matter whether he stays on the ballot or not. There may be enough voters who vote party line or only vote for the Democrat to ensure Roberts another term.According to Wikipedia, Kansas is not one of the States with "master level" straight ticket voting.


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#41

Post by SPen » Fri Sep 05, 2014 9:36 pm

Interesting that he is painting the gop candidate with Ted Cruz and painting him solidly into his corner. The logical conclusion is that he has figured that Cruz is not that popular in deep red Kansas. I wouldn't worry too much if they rule that the Dem cant actually drop out. If the Dem does not campaign at all its effectivly the same thing, even if his name remains on the ballot.Does Kansas have straight ticket voting? It may not matter whether he stays on the ballot or not. There may be enough voters who vote party line or only vote for the Democrat to ensure Roberts another term.According to Wikipedia, Kansas is not one of the States with "master level" straight ticket voting. No straight-ticket voting. It would be ideal for Taylor to get off the ballot and for the Democrats to not have to replace him (there will be a legal challenge to Kobach's decision since Taylor consulted with the SOS office in order to use the appropriate language in his letter), but it's not a dealbreaker if he has to stay on the ballot. It might actually help in the sense that it'll dampen the predictable Roberts attack that Orman will be the de facto Democratic nominee. The Democrats will try their best to push all their supporters to back Orman and Taylor won't campaign. The might even be able to get him off the ballot and put some random person named "Pat Roberts" in his place.



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#42

Post by Dr. Kenneth Noisewater » Fri Sep 05, 2014 9:44 pm

Interesting that he is painting the gop candidate with Ted Cruz and painting him solidly into his corner. The logical conclusion is that he has figured that Cruz is not that popular in deep red Kansas. I wouldn't worry too much if they rule that the Dem cant actually drop out. If the Dem does not campaign at all its effectivly the same thing, even if his name remains on the ballot.Does Kansas have straight ticket voting? It may not matter whether he stays on the ballot or not. There may be enough voters who vote party line or only vote for the Democrat to ensure Roberts another term.According to Wikipedia, Kansas is not one of the States with "master level" straight ticket voting. No straight-ticket voting. It would be ideal for Taylor to get off the ballot and for the Democrats to not have to replace him (there will be a legal challenge to Kobach's decision since Taylor consulted with the SOS office in order to use the appropriate language in his letter), but it's not a dealbreaker if he has to stay on the ballot. It might actually help in the sense that it'll dampen the predictable Roberts attack that Orman will be the de facto Democratic nominee. The Democrats will try their best to push all their supporters to back Orman and Taylor won't campaign. The might even be able to get him off the ballot and put some random person named "Pat Roberts" in his place. I'm sure Taylor could still cut some ads and send mailers telling them he's not a candidate and vote for one of the other guys. That voting for him would be throwing away their vote since he's no longer running.



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#43

Post by Dr. Kenneth Noisewater » Tue Sep 09, 2014 9:35 am

New poll out today: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRep ... a895325778 Looks like this is turning into a trifecta for Democrats much like Virginia was in 2012. The new poll puts it at 37% Orman - I, 36% Roberts - R, 10% Taylor - D (Not Running), 11% Undecided On the Governor side: 47% Davis/Docking - D, 40% Brownback/Coyler - R, 5% Umbehr - L, 7% Undecided and finally on Secretary of State 46% Jean Schodorf - D, 43% Kris Kobach - R, 11% Undecided.



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#44

Post by Family Liberty Patriot » Tue Sep 09, 2014 1:03 pm

Who will be the first wingnut to demand that polling organizations remind voters that Taylor is still the official Dem nominee when they conduct any polling?


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#45

Post by SPen » Thu Sep 11, 2014 5:06 am

Interesting that he is painting the gop candidate with Ted Cruz and painting him solidly into his corner. The logical conclusion is that he has figured that Cruz is not that popular in deep red Kansas. I wouldn't worry too much if they rule that the Dem cant actually drop out. If the Dem does not campaign at all its effectivly the same thing, even if his name remains on the ballot.Does Kansas have straight ticket voting? It may not matter whether he stays on the ballot or not. There may be enough voters who vote party line or only vote for the Democrat to ensure Roberts another term.According to Wikipedia, Kansas is not one of the States with "master level" straight ticket voting. No straight-ticket voting. It would be ideal for Taylor to get off the ballot and for the Democrats to not have to replace him (there will be a legal challenge to Kobach's decision since Taylor consulted with the SOS office in order to use the appropriate language in his letter), but it's not a dealbreaker if he has to stay on the ballot. It might actually help in the sense that it'll dampen the predictable Roberts attack that Orman will be the de facto Democratic nominee. The Democrats will try their best to push all their supporters to back Orman and Taylor won't campaign. The might even be able to get him off the ballot and put some random person named "Pat Roberts" in his place. I'm sure Taylor could still cut some ads and send mailers telling them he's not a candidate and vote for one of the other guys. That voting for him would be throwing away their vote since he's no longer running. Possibly, but that would require money that Taylor by and large does not have. He's going fast and hard for the legal challenge (he has to due to the calendar) and I think the hope is that the earned/free media will be sufficient to let the Democrats know that Orman is their guy. I think reputable polling firms will help with that as well, at least on the margins, by using the informed ballot test to let people know that Taylor has dropped out. If I had to guess, I'd say that Taylor will pull between 3%-5% of the vote on Election Day. Orman still has a solid path to victory in spite of that, but it would be a real boon to his chances if Taylor gets off the ballot.



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#46

Post by mimi » Tue Sep 16, 2014 12:14 pm

Mark Murray @mmurraypolitics @rickhasen: Looking likely that KS Supreme Court will keep Chad Taylor's (D) name off ballot electionlawblog.org/?p=65498 h/t @CarrieNBCNews Live Blogging #KSSEN Taylor v. Kobach: AnalysisPosted on September 16, 2014 7:00 amby Rick Hasen http://electionlawblog.org/?p=65498



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#47

Post by Dr. Kenneth Noisewater » Tue Sep 16, 2014 6:19 pm

And PPP has a new poll out today and it doesn't look good for Roberts:http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/Ka ... PPP916.pdf It shows Greg Orman up 41% to 34%



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#48

Post by TexasFilly » Tue Sep 16, 2014 6:31 pm

Mark Murray @mmurraypolitics @rickhasen: Looking likely that KS Supreme Court will keep Chad Taylor's (D) name off ballot electionlawblog.org/?p=65498 h/t @CarrieNBCNews Live Blogging #KSSEN Taylor v. Kobach: AnalysisPosted on September 16, 2014 7:00 amby Rick Hasen http://electionlawblog.org/?p=65498 Interesting. Mr. Hasen seems to think that because Taylor referenced the statute in his withdrawal letter, that might just well be substantial compliance. And substantial compliance seems to have been enough in the past. I just want to see Kobach get told he's being an ass, which we already knew.


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#49

Post by Mr. Gneiss » Tue Sep 16, 2014 6:45 pm

Well, Orly isn't busy until the gubmint attorneys file their reply. She should fly out to Kansas and offer her assistance to Mr. Kobach. They got along so well the last time as I recall. Plus, Orly has lots of experience with election law. :lol:



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#50

Post by Sterngard Friegen » Wed Sep 17, 2014 12:51 pm

And PPP has a new poll out today and it doesn't look good for Roberts:http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/Ka ... PPP916.pdf It shows Greg Orman up 41% to 34%Based on the tabs (a majority of those polled were Republicans) this is a devastating poll for Roberts.



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