The U.S. Senate

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mimi
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#1

Post by mimi » Sun Jan 27, 2013 3:50 pm

How Republicans could take control of the Senate in 2014





Here's what's at stake in the midterm elections: Democrats will defend 21 Senate seats while Republicans need to defend just 14.





But as the Washington Post notes, it's an even steeper climb than it looks. Seven of the seats Democrats will defend are in states that voted Republican in the 2012 presidential election: West Virginia, Arkansas, South Dakota, Louisiana, Alaska, Montana, and North Carolina. And in six of those seven — all but North Carolina — Obama lost by double-digits.





Interestingly, with Democrats currently holding a 55-45 majority in the Senate, Republicans must flip 6 seats to take back control. Those six states the GOP won handily in 2012 are their path back to power.





For now, the GOP-controlled House of Representatives is President Obama's biggest obstacle to his agenda on Capitol Hill. But come 2014, he may face roadblocks in both houses of Congress.


remainder:


[/break1]com/article/index/239306/how-republicans-could-take-control-of-the-senate-in-2014]http://theweek.com/article/index/239306 ... te-in-2014













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Plutodog
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#2

Post by Plutodog » Sun Jan 27, 2013 4:34 pm

At the risk of going OT -- if the odds prove correct and the R's take over the Senate in 2014, how many think the odds are less than 50-50 that the Repubs themselves will kill off the filibuster in 2015?
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#3

Post by esseff44 » Sun Jan 27, 2013 5:00 pm

They will need the same supermajority that the Dems need now. What are the chances of that many seats flipping?

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mimi
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#4

Post by mimi » Thu Mar 21, 2013 7:13 pm

Republicans Launch Opposition Research Firm





By Kyle Trygstad Posted at 6:35 p.m. today





Three Republican operatives have launched an opposition research group to serve as a counterweight to the successful Democratic venture, American Bridge 21st Century.





Matt Rhoades, Joe Pounder and Tim Miller have formed America Rising, a group devoted to candidate research, tracking, rapid response and digital tools to help the party define its opposition through research and proactive communication efforts. They hope to put the GOP on equal footing with Democrats, who were widely believed to have a leg up in the research field, something spelled out in the 2012 autopsy report released this week by the Republican National Committee.





America Rising, organized as a limited liability company, will conduct research and provide tracking as a product for Republican campaigns, committees and conservative advocacy groups. Separately, America Rising PAC will serve as the super PAC arm of the organization, focusing on rapid response, communications, social media and digital advertising campaigns.





“We plan to start this enterprise because so many Republicans seem to agree there is a need on our side of the aisle for an entity that is focused solely on holding Democrats accountable for their actions and records using research, candidate tracking, rapid response and digital tools,” Rhoades said in a statement.more:


[/break1]rollcall.com/republicans-launch-opposition-research-firm/]http://atr.rollcall.com/republicans-lau ... arch-firm/

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#5

Post by John Thomas8 » Thu Mar 21, 2013 7:16 pm

The US Senate is broken.

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#6

Post by bob » Thu Mar 21, 2013 7:20 pm

How Republicans could take control of the Senate in 2014RCP (Sept. 28, 20[highlight]11[/highlight]): [/break1]realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/09/28/odds_favor_gop_gaining_senate_control_in_2012_111492.html]Odds Favor GOP Gaining Senate Control in 2012:


The Senate and House races are usually undercard matches in presidential years. But 2012 may be different. Republicans are expected to hold the House, and [highlight]are probably slight favorites to win the White House at this point[/highlight]. If Democrats are going to keep a toehold in Washington, their only hope is retaining the Senate. This is especially true because much of what the Republican Congress will probably focus on in 2013 is spending cuts, which can -- and almost certainly will -- be done through budget reconciliation (which only requires a majority vote).





[highlight]But the Democrats’ chances of holding the Senate aren’t particularly good[/highlight]. Right now Republicans hold 47 of the 100 seats; if they win the presidency, they would need to pick up three more seats to have a majority. As of today, they are favored to pick up two Democratic seats. Two Republican seats are tossups, along with six Democratic seats. If we assume Democrats pick off one of the two Republican tossups, and that Republican pick off half of the Democratic tossups, Republicans would have a 51-49 majority....how'd all that work out?
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#7

Post by Dolly » Thu Mar 21, 2013 8:11 pm

Off Topic
RCP (Sept. 28, 20[highlight]11[/highlight]): [/break1]realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/09/28/odds_favor_gop_gaining_senate_control_in_2012_111492.html]Odds Favor GOP Gaining Senate Control in 2012:...how'd all that work out? Here's another "Blast From The Past" A CIVIL DISCUSSION WITH DR. ORLY TAITZ, ESQ. http://www.thefogbow.com/forum/viewtopi ... p195175Wed Dec 22, 2010 10:17 am orly taitz wrote This is a chess game. Think a couple of steps ahead. What will this anger cost you come 2012? Not only you will lose the presidency, you will lose more than that. Are you prepared for another blood bath? Are you prepared to lose 63 more seats in the House and 6-10 more seats in the Senate?It seems to me you are much better off if this issue is resolved soon versus it festering for much longer. Don't rush into answering me, it will be a knee jerk reaction. Take some time, simmer on it a bit and you will realize that being anal retentive on this issue is not in your best interest. If you agree with me, call me 949--683-5411 :lol:
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#8

Post by mimi » Thu Mar 21, 2013 9:45 pm

checkmate!

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#9

Post by p0rtia » Thu Mar 21, 2013 9:53 pm

The Republicans already control the Senate. Voting for Senate candidates doesn't mean much anymore.
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mimi
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#10

Post by mimi » Sun Mar 23, 2014 10:34 pm

aarrgghh!





NATE SILVER: Republicans Are On Track To Take Control Of The Senate


Brett LoGiurato





Mar. 23, 2014, 10:54 AM 2,363 25





Silver, whose fame grew during the 2012 presidential election, gives Republicans about a 60 percent chance of re-taking the Senate.





Republicans need to swing six seats to re-capture Senate control. They're on track to win in West Virginia, South Dakota, Montana, and Arkansas, according to Silver. Four states are toss-ups — Louisiana, North Carolina, Alaska, and Michigan. The most likely path to victory, then, for Republicans is swinging the four seats in which they're favored and winning two of the four toss-up seats. Polls have continued to show a large Republican advantage in states with open Senate seats.





There are also three Democratic-leaning seats — in Colorado, New Hampshire, and Iowa — the GOP could plausibly win. In the end, Silver said, Republicans could swing as many as 11 Senate seats. Then there's the caveat — Republicans are facing significant challenges in Georgia and in Kentucky.more, including a video(I didn't watch)


[/break1]businessinsider.com/nate-silver-gop-senate-takeover-chances-2014-3]http://www.businessinsider.com/nate-sil ... ces-2014-3





Here's Nate's post, including a chart showing his forecast:





[/break1]com/features/fivethirtyeight-senate-forecast/]http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fiv ... -forecast/





I'd be amenable to doing some oppo research as a team project. Using Nate's forecast as well as the chart I saw earlier regarding those vulnerable in the House. either here or behind a wall.

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#11

Post by SPen » Tue Mar 25, 2014 2:10 pm

People shouldn't be too worried about Silver's newest round of projections/predictions. The Democrats are wisely using them to fundraise off of and to light a fire under soft Democratic leaners, but there's no reason to worry right now. So much of the calculation of "slight edge" is Silver's mistake in projecting that the Senate race in Michigan is close. It isn't.





The reason that he's measuring it that way is because Michigan is the worst state in the country for public polling, and a lot of really terrible polling firms have tried their hand at polling the Senate race and their findings have shown that Terri Lynn Land either had a small lead or was neck-and-neck with Peters.





The polling is off though, just like it always is, and it's not an accurate reflection of what is truly a terrible campaign being run by Land. She's flip-flopping on issues right and left and even pulled off the rare flip-flop-flip on Obamacare of all things. Right now the biggest story in the state is the hammering that the Koch brothers are taking for airing ads featuring a serial liar, and Land is also taking a beating too for her embrace of the ads. On top of that, her campaign has made yet another Obamacare-related gaffe: [/break1]salon.com/2014/03/25/republicans_losing_it_over_new_obamacare_data_why_their_position_is_collapsing/]http://www.salon.com/2014/03/25/republi ... ollapsing/

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#12

Post by Addie » Wed Apr 23, 2014 10:48 am

[link]Talking Points Memo,http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/p ... s-southern[/link]





NYTimes Poll Suprise: Southern Senate Dems In The Lead





A round of new polls conducted by The New York Times and Kaiser Family Foundation have some good (and surprising) news for a handful of Southern Senate Democrats regarded as the most vulnerable in the 2014 election cycle.





The polls, released Wednesday, found Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR) leading Rep. Tom Cotton (R-AR) 46 percent to 36 percent. In Kentucky, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) just barely leads Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 44 percent to 43 percent, the poll found.





Meanwhile, in North Carolina Sen. Kay Hagan (D-NC) is neck-and-neck with House Speaker Thom Tillis (R-NC) in a hypothetical matchup with Hagan getting 42 percent while Tillis gets 40 percent.





Lastly, Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) has a commanding lead over Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) and the rest of the field in the Louisiana Senate race. That finding deserves a caveat: Louisiana's primary system is something called a "jungle primary" where there is no Republican or Democratic primary. Instead all candidates run together and if no candidate gets 50 percent of the vote, the top two candidates face each other in a runoff election. The poll found Landrieu with 42 percent followed by Cassidy with 18 percent. No other candidate managed to get double digits.





The polls were conducted April 8 to the 15. In Arkansas 1,027 voters were surveyed 857 of which were registered voters. In Kentucky, 1,026 voters were surveyed and 891 were registered voters. In Louisiana, 1,075 were surveyed and 946 were registered voters. In North Carolina 1, 024 were surveyed and 900 were registered voters. The margin of error for each poll was plus or minus 4 percentage points for registered voters.
Democracy is a garden that has to be tended. -Barack Obama

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#13

Post by SPen » Wed Apr 23, 2014 1:44 pm

I'm not quite sure about those polls, there are couple of things that point to general "outlier" status. The Hagan numbers are probably dead-on after the all-out assault she's taken from $12 million in Koch money. Pryor is likely leading at this point though not by 10 points; a series of four polls in a row found him up over Cotton and that fueled the perception that he's retaken the lead. The ALG/McConnell numbers are close but she's the one that probably has the narrow lead, not him. Landrieu's number is right but Cassidy's number is easily 10-15 points low.

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#14

Post by Joseph Robidoux III » Sat Jun 14, 2014 9:28 am

Well lookee who is back.Former Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli is the new president for the Senate Conservatives Fund, the group announced Wednesday.Long a thorn in the side of the Republican establishment, the SCF has been one of the most vocal groups in taking on GOP incumbents, though their record of success on that front has been mixed.[/break1]rollcall.com/ken-cuccinelli-takes-helm-of-senate-conservatives-fund/?dcz=]http://atr.rollcall.com/ken-cuccinelli- ... fund/?dcz=The GOP civil war continues. -xx

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#15

Post by mimi » Mon Jul 28, 2014 1:27 pm

Posting here, but it relates to the election in general.Just pointing out that Chuckie is building an oppo-research team on the twitter. Chuck isn't exactly known for his accuracy or high standard of ethics.RT. @ChuckCJohnson: Who has some interesting research on Dick Durbin and wants to join me?”Similar tweets have been sent regarding more than a few other pols. And he gets replies. But I think he deletes a lot of his tweets.

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#16

Post by mimi » Wed Aug 27, 2014 7:30 pm

Chris Cillizza @TheFix The election models are starting to converge. And they are pointing to a Republican Senate. wapo.st/1wDoHoP http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the ... an-senate/ I tried to paste the image, but gave up.

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#17

Post by Sterngard Friegen » Thu Aug 28, 2014 2:43 am

Maybe, but the Dems' scare emails are going to raise more money for them.


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#19

Post by Addie » Thu Aug 28, 2014 10:31 am

Princeton Election Consortium Senate Democrats are outperforming expectations [-o< I’ve been asked why the PEC Senate poll snapshot is more favorable to Democrats than forecasts you’ll find elsewhere: NYT’s The Upshot, Washington Post’s The Monkey Cage, ESPN’s FiveThirtyEight, and Daily Kos. All of these organizations show a higher probability of a Republican takeover than today’s PEC snapshot, which favors the Democrats with a 70% probability. Today I will show that in most cases, added assumptions (i.e. special sauce) have led the media organizations to different win probabilities – which I currently believe are wrong. I’ll then outline the subtle but important implications for a November prediction. If you want to get caught up on the major approaches to Senate models, start by reading my POLITICO piece. There I categorized models as “Fundamentals-based (Type 1)” and “Polls-based (Type 2)”. The major media organizations (NYT, WaPo, 538) have all gone with a hybrid Type 1/Type 2 approach, i.e. they all use prior conditions like incumbency, candidate experience, funding, and the generic Congressional ballot to influence their win probabilities — and opinion polls. What does that look like? http://election.princeton.edu/wp-conten ... Po_538.jpg
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#20

Post by SPen » Fri Aug 29, 2014 9:07 am

Sam Wang is more accurate with his current prediction than 538, the Upshot, and the Monkey Cage are mainly because there are some problems that are impacting the "state fundamentals" used by the latter three. There's also a very big problem that impacts all four of them: the quality of currently-available polling is absolutely awful.

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#21

Post by mimi » Sun Oct 26, 2014 1:20 pm

It ain't pretty.




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#22

Post by Suranis » Sun Oct 26, 2014 3:32 pm

The impression I was getting in the last few days is that its a lot closer than that. A lot of the races are extremely close. I don't think that GOP counted on it being a nailbiter in the last couple of weeks.
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#23

Post by GreatGrey » Sun Oct 26, 2014 3:38 pm





The impression I was getting in the last few days is that its a lot closer than that. A lot of the races are extremely close. I don't think that GOP counted on it being a nailbiter in the last couple of weeks.





The GOOPers just can't shut their yaps when they were ahead, they've sound bited their way into this when they coulda had taken control.
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#24

Post by Suranis » Mon Oct 27, 2014 10:21 am

People are starting to talk about a hung senate, short term at least

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/sen ... until-2015







Election Day 2014 is just eight days away, but control of the Senate may not be known for two more months.



Observers and pundits on both sides expect Louisiana's Senate race to go to a December runoff between Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu and GOP Rep. Bill Cassidy.



However, less attention is being paid to Amanda Swafford, the Georgia Libertarian who could deny Senate candidates in her state a required 50-percent majority on Election Day.







Georgia's runoff wouldn't occur until Jan. 6, the day after the new Congress is set to meet. Could these Southern states block the one thing every election watcher truly wants: a clear answer on the morning of Nov. 5?



The runoffs pose challenges for both parties — not just coordinating logistics and new spending, but motivating volunteers and voters all over again along with crafting an effective message and strategy under untested and unusual circumstances.



The uncertainty, however, is a nightmare scenario that could throw the Senate into chaos and cause continued gridlock at a time when Congress must again pass a government funding bill to pick up when the current stopgap measure expires on Dec. 11.



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