2014 US Senate: North Carolina

User avatar
Foggy
Posts: 29676
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2009 12:00 pm
Location: District Court of Bun-Dogs
Occupation: Dick Tater & hayseed

2014 US Senate: North Carolina

#26

Post by Foggy »

Gosh, an intraparty war in the GOP here in NC. Tragic. :mrgreen:
Don't make me assume my ultimate form!

(Fogbow on PayPal)

SPen
Posts: 269
Joined: Tue Jul 30, 2013 8:50 pm

2014 US Senate: North Carolina

#27

Post by SPen »

The Democrats would be very, very lucky if Brannon's insurgent candidacy actually caught fire and posed a real threat to Tillis. Kay Hagan is this cycle's Sherrod Brown: the target of overwhelming sums of outside money, Koch-allied or otherwise. $8 million of outside money has already been dumped into the state in the form of attack ads against Hagan, mostly related to Obamacare and her ties to the administration and we're just barely into February. Brown had $60 million in outside money spent against him in 2012 and Hagan could face the same daunting sum so she could use all the help that she can get. If Brannon mortally damaged Tillis in the primary or better yet actually found a way to beat him then Hagan would have a much easier route to reelection.

Joseph Robidoux III
Posts: 5619
Joined: Fri Feb 11, 2011 6:02 am

2014 US Senate: North Carolina

#28

Post by Joseph Robidoux III »

A follow-up to SPen's above post (highlighting and larger font size mine).The Koch brothers have a seemingly bottomless pot of cash this election year — and no one knows it better than Sen. Kay Hagan.Americans for Prosperity, a group co-founded by the conservative billionaires, has already dropped $8.2 million on TV, radio and digital ads in an effort to defeat the North Carolina Democrat. According to sources tracking media buys, the group has so far spent more in North Carolina than all Democratic outside groups in every Senate race in the country — combined.[/break1]politico.com/story/2014/02/koch-brothers-kay-hagan-103406.html?hp=t2_3]http://www.politico.com/story/2014/02/k ... ml?hp=t2_3

SPen
Posts: 269
Joined: Tue Jul 30, 2013 8:50 pm

2014 US Senate: North Carolina

#29

Post by SPen »

Hagan is finally getting some backup, in the form of a new spot from the Democratic-allied "Patriot Majority USA." They're going on the air with an add that hits likely candidate Tillis on healthcare: [/break1]youtube.com/watch?v=Vxi-CIzU4nA] been a rough beginning for Hagan and for the Senate Democrats. She's faced $8 million in negative ads, mostly from Koch-land, and there's been little response from her or any allies. Thankfully her fundraising has been very strong, she raised $2.1 million during the fourth quarter and she now has $6.8 million on hand (she's dominating Tillis, who raised $714,000 and has $1.3 million on hand). The problem is that because she's facing the possibility of $50-$60 million in outside money getting spent against her in negative ads, she has to be apprehensive about spending money now knowing that she's really, really going to need it later.She also doesn't know who she's running against. People assume Tillis will win the primary but it's well known that GOP primaries sometimes go with the wingnut who scores an upset over candidates exactly like Tillis. Hagan doesn't want to blow through her money on attacking Tillis in the event that he doesn't emerge from the May 6th primary and the nomination ends up going to Brannon. Hagan would be this year's Chris Coons if Greg Brannon can somehow win the primary. We could be so lucky.

User avatar
realist
Posts: 35048
Joined: Fri Jan 23, 2009 12:33 pm

2014 US Senate: North Carolina

#30

Post by realist »

[link]Mother Jones,http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2014/02 ... -investors[/link]





Jury Finds Tea Party Senate Candidate Who Rand Paul Endorsed Misled Investors to the Tune of $250,000





On the stump,[highlight]Greg Brannon, the tea party candidate in North Carolina's competitive Senate race, preaches personal responsibility[/highlight]and rails against out-of-control government spending.





So [highlight]a recent jury verdict that held Brannon responsible for misleading two investors who gave him a quarter million dollars[/highlight]is quite a blow to the image Brannon has tried to craft of a crusader for better financial decisions in government.





Brannon, a full-time OB-GYN, is best distinguished from the rest of the GOP primary candidates vying to replace Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan by [highlight]his extreme beliefs[/highlight]: He has said public education "does nothing…other than dehumanize" students and that [highlight]food stamps are "slavery."[/highlight]Recent GOP primary polls have Brannon trailing the front-runner, North Carolina House Speaker Thom Tillis, by single digits. [highlight]Endorsements from Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and conservative leaders such as RedState editor Erick Erickson[/highlight] have given Brannon a significant fundraising boost.





His legal troubles are linked to Neogence Enterprises, a defunct technology company [highlight]Brannon cofounded[/highlight]several years ago. The company tried to develop a smartphone application which Brannon pitched as a "social augmented reality network connecting people, places and things" and a once-in-a-lifetime investment opportunity. Last week, a civil jury concluded that Brannon had led two investors to believe that Verizon was considering preinstalling the application on certain smartphones. (The Raleigh News & Observer first reported the verdict.) [highlight]Although Neogence pitched Verizon, the cellphone carrier never, in fact, made that offer.[/highlight]
ImageX 4 ImageX36
Image

Joseph Robidoux III
Posts: 5619
Joined: Fri Feb 11, 2011 6:02 am

2014 US Senate: North Carolina

#31

Post by Joseph Robidoux III »

Pray that Greg Brannon can pull off a miracle upset and take the nomination away from Tillis. Hagan would stomp Brannon in a general election.PPP's newest North Carolina poll finds that Thom Tillis' support has declined after a month defined by his gaffes on the campaign trail, and that he's now tied for the Republican Senate nomination with Greg Brannon. Tillis and Brannon are both at 14%, followed by Heather Grant at 11%, Ted Alexander and Mark Harris at 7%, Alex Bradshaw at 6%, Jim Snyder at 4%, and Edward Kryn at 1%. A month ago Tillis led Brannon 20/13.[/break1]publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/03/gop-senate-primary-tied-in-nc.html#more]http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main ... .html#moreHopefully Greg Bannon can keep Thom Tillis occupied until May 6.

SPen
Posts: 269
Joined: Tue Jul 30, 2013 8:50 pm

2014 US Senate: North Carolina

#32

Post by SPen »

We might get lucky here. If Brannon and company can somehow hold Tillis under 50% on the May 6th primary then the top 2 finishers will advance to the run-off on July 15th. Hagan would probably benefit from an extra month of the GOP trying to find out who their nominee is going to be, though she is taking a lot of damage from outside groups and she's unable to respond without knowing who her opponent will be.We need Brannon to win this but he's getting a lot of bad press this month too. I don't know if he's strong enough to pull off the upset.

Joseph Robidoux III
Posts: 5619
Joined: Fri Feb 11, 2011 6:02 am

2014 US Senate: North Carolina

#33

Post by Joseph Robidoux III »

The Associated Press has called Speaker of the NC House Thom Tillis the winner in the Republican primary for the US Senate. According to the AP the winner needed to capture 40%+1 vote to avoid a runoff. Tillis is around 45%.North Carolina House Speaker Thom Tillis captured the Republican nomination to oppose imperiled Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan Tuesday night, overcoming anti-establishment rivals by a comfortable margin in the first of a springtime spate of primaries testing the strength of a tea party movement that first rocked the GOP four years ago.In North Carolina, Tillis was winning about 45 percent of the vote with ballots counted in 72 percent of the state's precincts, easily surpassing the 40 percent needed to avoid a July runoff. Greg Brannon was trailing despite support from tea party favorite Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, and Mark Harris, a Baptist pastor, was third.[/break1]ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_PRIMARY_RDP?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2014-05-06-22-13-20]http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/ ... 6-22-13-20North Carolina election results may be found [/break1]ncsbe.gov/ElectionResults/?election_dt=05/06/2014]here.Not enough Democratic voters voted for Greg Bannon. :cry:

User avatar
Foggy
Posts: 29676
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2009 12:00 pm
Location: District Court of Bun-Dogs
Occupation: Dick Tater & hayseed

2014 US Senate: North Carolina

#34

Post by Foggy »

Not enough Democratic voters voted for Greg Bannon. :cry:We don't haz open primaries. I got a Democratic ballot, and Bannon wasn't on it. Hagan was.We had 15% turnout. I'm disgusted and outraged.
Don't make me assume my ultimate form!

(Fogbow on PayPal)

Joseph Robidoux III
Posts: 5619
Joined: Fri Feb 11, 2011 6:02 am

2014 US Senate: North Carolina

#35

Post by Joseph Robidoux III »

ABBC3_OFFTOPIC
When I lived in Iowa for a few years there were a couple of times many of us Democrats thought our Republican friends needed our help. We would go down to the courthouse sometime between 31 and 60 days prior to the election and tell the elections official we wanted to change our party affiliation. You just check a box, sign the card and walla; you iz a Republican! We just looked at it as the neighborly thing to do. :mrgreen: After we had helped our friends we would go back to the courthouse a few weeks later and get things back to normal.Democrats and Republicans do the same thing in Missouri except we duzn't have to go to the courthouse. We just tell the nice old lady behind the table at the polling station which ballot we want this time and she hands it to us.It's a midwestern thing.
Edit: In 1996 I went to the schoolhouse and caucused IIRC with the Pat Buchanan folk. Whomever it was, they were the scariest bunch of phuckers I'd seen in quite a while.

User avatar
Foggy
Posts: 29676
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2009 12:00 pm
Location: District Court of Bun-Dogs
Occupation: Dick Tater & hayseed

2014 US Senate: North Carolina

#36

Post by Foggy »

Spent two hours canvassing for Kay Hagan this morning. Will do same next Sat. Apparently the Dems are "flooding" NC with organizers as fast as possible, and will be putting up a hell of a fight here, thank doG.
Don't make me assume my ultimate form!

(Fogbow on PayPal)

User avatar
magdalen77
Posts: 5394
Joined: Fri Jan 04, 2013 1:43 pm
Location: Down in the cellar

2014 US Senate: North Carolina

#37

Post by magdalen77 »

Spent two hours canvassing for Kay Hagan this morning. Will do same next Sat. Apparently the Dems are "flooding" NC with organizers as fast as possible, and will be putting up a hell of a fight here, thank doG.You go Foggy!!

Joseph Robidoux III
Posts: 5619
Joined: Fri Feb 11, 2011 6:02 am

2014 US Senate: North Carolina

#38

Post by Joseph Robidoux III »

This one is going to be a toughie.[/break1]photobucket.com/user/Joseph_Robidoux_III/media/Politics/2014%20Elections/2014%20US%20Senate/North%20Carolina/USSenateNC2014-06-19_zpsb2955800.jpg.html]http://i1143.photobucket.com/albums/n63 ... 955800.jpg[/break1]realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/nc/north_carolina_senate_tillis_vs_hagan-3497.html]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -3497.htmlSpent two hours canvassing for Kay Hagan this morning. Will do same next Sat. Apparently the Dems are "flooding" NC with organizers as fast as possible, and will be putting up a hell of a fight here, thank doG.Anyone else notice how the polls changed after May 31, 2014?

User avatar
Foggy
Posts: 29676
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2009 12:00 pm
Location: District Court of Bun-Dogs
Occupation: Dick Tater & hayseed

2014 US Senate: North Carolina

#39

Post by Foggy »

:-bd Can't take all the credit, but I'm fighting for this one and will keep doing so until November.I debated whether to join the Hagan campaign, because I wanted her out front on ObamaCare. It's nothing to be afraid of. It's a success. Dems have to learn to campaign on it, and to say "I helped pass this law and it's a success and it's good for America so vote for me." She is going to make ObamaCare an issue, along with jobs, education, veterans, and so forth. Meanwhile, Tillis takes personal credit for stopping the Medicaid expansion in this state. He's also a wingnut as recent revelations have proved. Turns out he thinks the black and Hispanic populations are growing, but the "traditional" (in other words, white) population is not. So he has to figure out a way to appeal to those blacks and Hispanics. Then he tried to say "traditional" meant "been here for several generations," not white. Which is bullshit, but no help in any event. A lot of the blacks in NC have been here for more generations than Tillis wants to talk about, going back before the Civil War.Asshole. I will endure the summer heat walking door-to-door for Hagan. This is one we have to win.
Don't make me assume my ultimate form!

(Fogbow on PayPal)

SPen
Posts: 269
Joined: Tue Jul 30, 2013 8:50 pm

2014 US Senate: North Carolina

#40

Post by SPen »

This one is going to be a toughie.[/break1]photobucket.com/user/Joseph_Robidoux_III/media/Politics/2014%20Elections/2014%20US%20Senate/North%20Carolina/USSenateNC2014-06-19_zpsb2955800.jpg.html]http://i1143.photobucket.com/albums/n63 ... 955800.jpg[/break1]realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/nc/north_carolina_senate_tillis_vs_hagan-3497.html]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -3497.htmlSpent two hours canvassing for Kay Hagan this morning. Will do same next Sat. Apparently the Dems are "flooding" NC with organizers as fast as possible, and will be putting up a hell of a fight here, thank doG.Anyone else notice how the polls changed after May 31, 2014?The polling is always going to change here (and elsewhere), depending almost entirely on how many Republican shills are included in a polling aggregate like HuffPo Pollster or RealClearPolitics. Civitas is a joke and because it hires different firms to conduct different polls it's impossible to even measure from one Civitas survey to the next in hopes of trying to find a baseline. Magellan is also a joke, they just coincidentally provided a survey this time with a Democrat on top. There's reasons to be pessimistic about this race, there's also reasons to be optimistic. The fact that Hagan is still in a virtual tie after $15 million+ being spent against her in outside attack ads is somewhat encouraging, especially because she is yet to dip into her massive war chest. She's got the money to wage the type of campaign that once she goes up on the air she's not coming down.

User avatar
Foggy
Posts: 29676
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2009 12:00 pm
Location: District Court of Bun-Dogs
Occupation: Dick Tater & hayseed

2014 US Senate: North Carolina

#41

Post by Foggy »

The fact that Hagan is still in a virtual tie after $15 million+ being spent against her in outside attack ads is somewhat encouraging, especially because she is yet to dip into her massive war chest. She's got the money to wage the type of campaign that once she goes up on the air she's not coming down.That's great news. I think the national party wants her to win as much as I do. She doesn't have enough name recognition, is my take right now. I'm still ringing doorbells every Saturday (not the next two Saturdays, though; I'll be at the beach). I say, "I'm Bill Bryan and I'm a volunteer for the Kay Hagan campaign. Do you know who Kay Hagan is?" Surprisingly often, the answer is no. But that's why I've been out there in May and June. I'm meeting my organizer Tuesday afternoon. :-bd
Don't make me assume my ultimate form!

(Fogbow on PayPal)

SPen
Posts: 269
Joined: Tue Jul 30, 2013 8:50 pm

2014 US Senate: North Carolina

#42

Post by SPen »

The fact that Hagan is still in a virtual tie after $15 million+ being spent against her in outside attack ads is somewhat encouraging, especially because she is yet to dip into her massive war chest. She's got the money to wage the type of campaign that once she goes up on the air she's not coming down.That's great news. I think the national party wants her to win as much as I do. She doesn't have enough name recognition, is my take right now. I'm still ringing doorbells every Saturday (not the next two Saturdays, though; I'll be at the beach). I say, "I'm Bill Bryan and I'm a volunteer for the Kay Hagan campaign. Do you know who Kay Hagan is?" Surprisingly often, the answer is no. But that's why I've been out there in May and June. I'm meeting my organizer Tuesday afternoon. :-bdYeah, both her and Richard Burr are very anonymous Senators. They both have very low name recognition and it's one of the reasons they both have middling job approval ratings to go with it.

User avatar
Foggy
Posts: 29676
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2009 12:00 pm
Location: District Court of Bun-Dogs
Occupation: Dick Tater & hayseed

2014 US Senate: North Carolina

#43

Post by Foggy »

Well, I'm happy to report that I've received a HUGE promotion. I'm now a "canvass captain," and I want a whole new level of respect around here. :bag: Even better, it comes with a raise of 27 times what they were previously paying me. (27 x 0 = 0) ?( So anyway, this is our Weekend of Action, where we practice doing all the things we'll be doing on election day to GOTV. I'll be offline all afternoon today and tomorrow. If there are any problems with the forum, I won't be around to handle them. If there are any real serious emergencies, dial 911.You've been abandoned, but it's for a good cause. :banana:
Don't make me assume my ultimate form!

(Fogbow on PayPal)

User avatar
listeme
Posts: 5426
Joined: Tue Jul 14, 2009 11:09 am

2014 US Senate: North Carolina

#44

Post by listeme »

Yay Foggy!
ABBC3_OFFTOPIC
All of you in plan 17, please execute. HE IS GONE FOR TWO DAYS!
We're used to being told it's our fault that men don't listen to us.

User avatar
SueDB
Posts: 27756
Joined: Thu Sep 30, 2010 2:02 pm
Location: RIP, my friend. - Foggy

2014 US Senate: North Carolina

#45

Post by SueDB »

Be careful the Republicans are about to initiate "Plan 9 from Outer Space". ;)
“If You're Not In The Obit, Eat Breakfast”

Remember, Orly NEVAH disappoints!

Joseph Robidoux III
Posts: 5619
Joined: Fri Feb 11, 2011 6:02 am

2014 US Senate: North Carolina

#46

Post by Joseph Robidoux III »

Well, I'm happy to report that I've received a HUGE promotion. I'm now a "canvass captain," and I want a whole new level of respect around here. :bag:Sen Hagan's numbers are down, Captain. :angry: [/break1]photobucket.com/user/Joseph_Robidoux_III/media/Politics/2014%20Elections/2014%20US%20Senate/North%20Carolina/USSenateNC2014-08-14_zps8c5bcf4b.jpg.html]http://i1143.photobucket.com/albums/n63 ... 5bcf4b.jpg[/break1]realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/nc/north_carolina_senate_tillis_vs_hagan-3497.html]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -3497.html

User avatar
Foggy
Posts: 29676
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2009 12:00 pm
Location: District Court of Bun-Dogs
Occupation: Dick Tater & hayseed

2014 US Senate: North Carolina

#47

Post by Foggy »

Down because of Rasmussen ain't my kinda down.She still has a war chest, as I understand it, and hasn't really ramped up the campaign yet.My organizer quit on the grounds that she can't be doing 90-hour work weeks. They haven't assigned me to anybody new yet.
Don't make me assume my ultimate form!

(Fogbow on PayPal)

SPen
Posts: 269
Joined: Tue Jul 30, 2013 8:50 pm

2014 US Senate: North Carolina

#48

Post by SPen »

Well, I'm happy to report that I've received a HUGE promotion.


I'm now a "canvass captain," and I want a whole new level of respect around here. :bag:Sen Hagan's numbers are down, Captain. :angry:


[/break1]photobucket.com/user/Joseph_Robidoux_III/media/Politics/2014%20Elections/2014%20US%20Senate/North%20Carolina/USSenateNC2014-08-14_zps8c5bcf4b.jpg.html]http://i1143.photobucket.com/albums/n63 ... 5bcf4b.jpg


[/break1]realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/nc/north_carolina_senate_tillis_vs_hagan-3497.html]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -3497.htmlPay no attention to those polls. Rasmussen is an utter joke, Civitas is inaccurate, and the YouGov poll commissioned by the New York Times is a cheap online poll that has been raked over the coals repeatedly over the last week due to how many sampling problems were caused by such a poor methodology (things like Gary Peters in Michigan or Michelle Nunn in Georgia only winning African Americans 70%-25% or something utterly ridiculous)





The biggest news coming out of North Carolina is what the DSCC just announced. They just made a reservation for Fall television ad time amounting to $9.1 million, most of it slated to attack Tillis' record in the state legislature. This is one of the largest declared ad-buys in the history of Senate elections in this country and it should have a large impact on the race. To this point there's really been very little action on the airwaves that have benefited Democrats. Hagan herself has conserved her money and has only advertised sparingly, and Democratic allies have only made a couple of ad buys, nothing to adequately respond to the $20 million that the Kochs have spent against her and the attacks from other groups. When Hagan unloads her $10 million war chest and when the DSCC starts blasting Tillis on the education cuts and other ridiculous products of NC's legislature, this race will change.

User avatar
Foggy
Posts: 29676
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2009 12:00 pm
Location: District Court of Bun-Dogs
Occupation: Dick Tater & hayseed

2014 US Senate: North Carolina

#49

Post by Foggy »

My cute blonde 23 yr. old campaign organizer quit this week. Something about not being able to continue doing 90-hour work weeks. :shock:Today I went to a campaign event and met my new organizer. She's even cuter than the last one.Life is good. 8-)
Don't make me assume my ultimate form!

(Fogbow on PayPal)

User avatar
Dr. Kenneth Noisewater
Posts: 5343
Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 4:28 pm
Location: East Coast
Contact:

2014 US Senate: North Carolina

#50

Post by Dr. Kenneth Noisewater »

Foggy must have been working hard because a new poll by PPP has Hagan up 44-40% Trendlines on RCP have it going for Hagan


Attached files deleted

Post Reply

Return to “U.S. Senate”