2014 US Senate: Virginia

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Joseph Robidoux III
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2014 US Senate: Virginia

#1

Post by Joseph Robidoux III » Wed Jan 16, 2013 9:41 pm

Early polling results for Virginia's freshman Senator.PPP's newest Virginia poll finds Mark Warner in a strong position no matter who the GOP puts up against him next year. Warner continues to be the state's most popular politician, with 52% of voters approving of him to only 31% who disapprove.Bob McDonnell has solid numbers too, with a 48/35 approval spread. Even so he would trail Warner 52/42 if he tried to run for the Senate next year. The rest of the Republicans we tested do far worse. Bill Bolling would trail by 18 points at 53/35. Eric Cantor, who's a very unpopular figure with a 27/44 favorability rating, trails Warner 56/37. And likely 2013 Gubernatorial nominee Ken Cuccinelli does the worst in a hypothetical head to head with Warner, trailing 57/36. Barring some dramatic reversal of Warner's popularity he looks safe for next year. [/break1]publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/01/warner-looks-strong-for-2014.html#more]http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main ... .html#more



Joseph Robidoux III
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2014 US Senate: Virginia

#2

Post by Joseph Robidoux III » Thu Apr 04, 2013 9:31 pm

Sen Warner announced he will be running for re-election in 2014.The Virginia Democrat's press secretary, Beth Adelson, told The News Leader on Thursday he will seek a return to the U.S. Senate when his term expires next year.Warner told the Staunton newspaper he had considered a run for his old job as governor, but he abandoned that notion because of concerns about working successfully in Richmond with a heavily Republican House of Delegates.[/break1]timesdispatch.com/news/state-regional/ap/warner-will-seek-re-election-when-senate-term-ends-in/article_e353d5b0-9848-11e2-8851-0019bb30f31a.html]http://www.timesdispatch.com/news/state ... 0f31a.html



Joseph Robidoux III
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2014 US Senate: Virginia

#3

Post by Joseph Robidoux III » Wed Jun 05, 2013 5:36 pm

A long way to go before election day but this still looks nice.Mark Warner continues to be by far and away Virginia's most popular politician, and doesn't look like he would face much trouble for reelection regardless of who the Republicans put up next year.53% of Virginians approve of the job Warner is doing to only 27% who disapprove. He's at 58/25 with independents, and has 26% crossover approval from Republicans. He would have an 11 point lead in a hypothetical match up with Bob McDonnell, 50/39. He would also lead Eric Cantor by 19 points at 53/34 and Bill Bolling by 21 points at 54/33. Cantor continues to be unpopular statewide, with only 26% of voters rating him favorably to 40% who have a negative opinion.[/break1]publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/05/warner-safe-for-reelection.html#more]http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main ... .html#more



Joseph Robidoux III
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2014 US Senate: Virginia

#4

Post by Joseph Robidoux III » Thu Jan 09, 2014 7:56 pm

Ed Gillespie, a former Republican National Committee chairman, has told senior members of his party that he will challenge Senator Mark R. Warner of Virginia and announce his candidacy as early as next week, giving Republicans a top-tier candidate in what has become one of the nation’s most competitive swing states.The bid by Mr. Gillespie, a longtime party operative turned lobbyist with ties to both Republican grass-roots and establishment wings, also underlines the intent of more mainstream Virginia Republicans to retake control of the party after a Tea Party-backed candidate lost the governorship.[/break1]nytimes.com/2014/01/10/us/politics/gillespie-former-gop-chairman-readies-for-senate-run-in-virginia.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0]http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/10/us/po ... share&_r=0It will be interesting to learn if Virginia Teabaggers will enthusiastically support Mr Gillespie or demand someone else who passes their purity test.



Joseph Robidoux III
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2014 US Senate: Virginia

#5

Post by Joseph Robidoux III » Thu Jan 16, 2014 6:06 pm

It's official; Sen Warner now has a Republican opponent.Ed Gillespie, a former chairman of the Republican National Committee, announced Thursday that he will challenge Democratic Sen. Mark Warner.Despite Warner’s inherent advantages in this swing state, Gillespie’s entrance gives Republicans a competent opponent who will be able to raise money and make the race at least one to keep an eye on this year.Gillespie is a connected former lobbyist, political strategist, top Hill staffer and White House aide. He helped elect former Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell in 2009 and served for the last four years as chairman of the Republican State Leadership Committee.He faces an uphill climb against Warner, a popular former governor who is seeking a second term in the Senate. Warner ended 2013 with $7.1 million in cash on hand.[/break1]rollcall.com/gillespie-announces-virginia-senate-campaign/]http://atr.rollcall.com/gillespie-annou ... -campaign/



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Piffle
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#6

Post by Piffle » Thu Jan 16, 2014 6:30 pm

Hey, McAuliffe just won the VA gubernatorial election and Gillespie is close to being the GOP version of McAuliffe, so why not?The trouble is, attacking Mark Warner is like punching a giant Gummy Bear.



SPen
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#7

Post by SPen » Tue Jan 21, 2014 11:06 pm

Gillespie and his candidacy aren't really "the GOP version of McAuliffe." It seems the media is trying really hard to force that narrative to try to help out their village buddy but the similarities end after the fact that both he and McAuliffe used to be chairs of the RNC/DNC.





McAuliffe's well known for ties to a popular former president, Gillespie's well known for ties to an unpopular former president


McAuliffe actually ran statewide before (hell, he actually RAN before), Gillespie's never run for office at all


McAuliffe ran when the state was trending towards his party, Gillespie's running when the state is trending away from his party


McAuliffe had the complete support of the Virginia Democratic party, Gillespie doesn't enter the race with institutional support


McAuliffe sailed through an competitive primary, Gillespie has to win nomination at a convention in Roanoke full of reactionary wingnuts


McAuliffe competed in an open race against an unpopular candidate, Gillespie is challenging an incumbent and the most popular politician in the state


McAuliffe had positions in line with his party, Gillespie had to scrub his website to hide his positions


McAuliffe had Obama and DPVA data, Gillespie only has what the VAGOP has used to lose 6 of the last 7 statewide cycles


McAuliffe benefited from an off-off year election where the national party had unlimited resources to contribute, Gillespie is running in a year when most of the GOP's money is going into more-competitive U.S. Senate races





Everything that the media and the GOP shills are saying about this race is wrong. Gillespie's a nobody, the VAGOP is in shambles (McDonnell was indicted and the party lost control of the State Senate in the same day), and Warner is not even remotely vulnerable.



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mimi
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#8

Post by mimi » Tue Jan 21, 2014 11:34 pm

The first poll out after GOP heavy hitter Ed Gillespie formally announced he will challenge Sen Mark Warner's bid for re-election gives Warner a [highlight]nearly 30 percentage point lead[/highlight]. The Roanoke College poll of 553 registered votes reported 50 percent saying they'd vote for Warner against 21 percent for Gillespie, the former chairman of the Republican National Committee.[/break1]slate.com/blogs/weigel/2014/01/21/this_poll_challenges_the_gop_s_unified_theory_of_obamacare_unpopularity.html?wpisrc=burger_bar]http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2014/ ... burger_bar



SPen
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#9

Post by SPen » Wed Jan 22, 2014 1:05 pm

The poll is from Roanoke College, which has been absolutely awful over the last couple of cycles. I can believe a massive lead for Warner at this point but if RC is right it's by accident haha.



Joseph Robidoux III
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#10

Post by Joseph Robidoux III » Thu Jan 23, 2014 8:17 pm

According to Real Clear Politics Rasmussen Reports has Warner leading Gillespie 51%-37%. It's probably not that close but whomever is running the place since Scott Rasmussen said goodbye likely doesn't want to scare the crap out of Virginia Republicans.


Republicans.


[/break1]realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/va/virginia_senate_gillespie_vs_warner-4255.html]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -4255.html



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SueDB
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2014 US Senate: Virginia

#11

Post by SueDB » Mon Jan 27, 2014 12:50 pm

[/break1]therepublic.com/view/story/32e053f680374b3086aeb0c920d91a40/VA--Senate-Race-John-Warner]Warner Endorses Successor Warner





RICHMOND, Virginia — Former Republican Sen. John W. Warner on Monday endorsed his Democratic successor over a past national GOP chairman in the race for the U.S. Senate seat he held for 30 years.





Warner told The Associated Press in a telephone interview that he is supporting Sen. Mark Warner, who is being challenged by Ed Gillespie in November's election. The Warners are not related.





John Warner, a moderate, earned a reputation as a party maverick by bucking the conservatives who gradually won control of the GOP during his decades in office. He refused to endorse GOP home-schooling advocate Mike Farris for lieutenant governor and backed an independent candidate over Iran-Contra figure Oliver North in the 1994 race against Democratic Sen. Chuck Robb. But this is the first time he has endorsed a Democrat outright.





John Warner praised his successor, also a centrist, for seeking bipartisan solutions.





"You see him crossing that aisle to try to form teams to solve problems," John Warner said. "That's so es...


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SPen
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#12

Post by SPen » Tue Jan 28, 2014 3:57 am

This is a huge endorsement score for Mark Warner. John Warner had never crossed party lines to endorse a Democratic nominee before but he's been moving in this direction for quite some time as the new direction taken by the GOP has turned him off. He chose not to endorse Gilmore in the 2008 U.S. Senate race that Mark Warner won (in a blowout), and he didn't endorse Cuccinelli in the 2013 Governor's race either. Not that Mark Warner needs the help but scoring the endorsement of John Warner, who is still pretty beloved and respected in Virginia, is a big deal.





Ed Gillespie is still the candidate of the Village and not much else. His road to the general election did get a lot easier on Monday though when primary foe Howie Lind dropped out of the race. It would be a pretty big feat if Gillespie found a way to lose the Republican nomination at this point considering how many people have gotten or stayed out of his way. If an extreme conservative state legislator decided that he/she wanted to challenge Warner then a nominating convention in Roanoke would look pretty appealing, yet the GOP seems to be coalescing around Gillespie in the delusional belief that he can actually beat Warner.



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#13

Post by Joseph Robidoux III » Wed Feb 05, 2014 11:00 pm

Ed Gillespie needs to hope either Sen Warner makes a monumental gaffe or somehow Gillespie receives railroad cars full of money. Any money Gillespie gets will be cash that can't be spent in Louisiana, Arkansas or Georgia.[/break1]photobucket.com/user/Joseph_Robidoux_III/media/Politics/2014%20Elections/2014%20US%20Senate/Virginia/USSenateVA2014-02-05_zpsf80ad957.jpg.html]http://i1143.photobucket.com/albums/n63 ... 0ad957.jpg[/break1]realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/va/virginia_senate_gillespie_vs_warner-4255.html]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -4255.html



SPen
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#14

Post by SPen » Sat Feb 08, 2014 5:19 pm

Gillespie will raise a lot of money, that's about the only benefit to his party that his candidacy brings because outside of his fundraising connections he is an extremely weak candidate. If Gillespie siphons a lot of that money off from what should be directed towards Alaska, Louisiana, and North Carolina then he'll only end up hurting the GOP because he's not going to win the race. The Democrats would be very excited if the GOP chooses to flood tens of millions of dollars into Virginia instead of spending it on the races that'll decide which party wins the majority in the Senate. Such a move from the GOP would be as dumb as if the Democrats spent $20 million trying to unseat Susan Collins in Maine because it's just not going to happen.



Joseph Robidoux III
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2014 US Senate: Virginia

#15

Post by Joseph Robidoux III » Sat Jun 07, 2014 5:30 pm

It's offishul! Ed Gillespie is the Virginia GOPers' nominee for the US Senate.Former presidential adviser and lobbyist Ed Gillespie won the Republican nomination at the state party convention Saturday and will face Democratic Sen. Mark Warner in the general election in November.Gillespie beat out three rivals for the nomination: insurance salesman and former Air Force pilot Shak Hill; congressional staffer Tony DeTora; and Chuck Moss, owner of at a network consulting business.[/break1]ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_VIRGINIA_SENATE_GILLESPIE?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2014-06-07-15-36-46]http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/ ... 7-15-36-46



Joseph Robidoux III
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2014 US Senate: Virginia

#16

Post by Joseph Robidoux III » Thu Jun 19, 2014 1:34 pm

It's been a few months since I posted one of these for Virginia. Things are still looking good.[/break1]photobucket.com/user/Joseph_Robidoux_III/media/Politics/2014%20Elections/2014%20US%20Senate/Virginia/USSenateVA2014-06-19a_zps01d56cea.jpg.html]http://i1143.photobucket.com/albums/n63 ... d56cea.jpg[/break1]photobucket.com/user/Joseph_Robidoux_III/media/Politics/2014%20Elections/2014%20US%20Senate/Virginia/USSenateVA2014-06-19b_zps4051fd3d.jpg.html]http://i1143.photobucket.com/albums/n63 ... 51fd3d.jpg[/break1]realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/va/virginia_senate_gillespie_vs_warner-4255.html]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -4255.htmlNotice the Rasmussen Reports poll results for Gillespie aren't getting any better.



SPen
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#17

Post by SPen » Sat Jun 21, 2014 9:14 pm

Things look good, but it might narrow as things get closer to Election Day for a couple of reasons. The Warner campaign seems to be planning for something down the road because it isn't deploying as many field staff and offices throughout the state as you would think it would want to, utilizing less Field Organizers than McAuliffe, Kaine, and Obama did in the state. The campaign isn't even really aggressively contesting the 9th Congressional District, as only Warner can, and that might keep some of the (rare) Warner voters in Southwest Virginia from turning out in November.Warner should still win comfortably though, but this laid-back approach that we're seeing at the moment may allow Gillespie to artificially build up his support and parlay that into a possible run for Governor in 2017. This race is incredibly important but that race, too, is a must-win for Virginia Democrats.



Joseph Robidoux III
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2014 US Senate: Virginia

#18

Post by Joseph Robidoux III » Thu Aug 14, 2014 3:32 pm

Chairman Mullins: Ed Gillespie Demolishes Mark Warner in First Debate


-- 'After this performance, I doubt we'll see Mark Warner agree to any more meetings'





RPV Chairman Pat Mullins issued the following statement:





"There's no two ways about it: Ed Gillespie absolutely demolished Mark Warner during today's debate. After this, I strongly doubt Warner will even agree to another debate. One more outing like this one would end the race."





And that's why he's about to return to the private sector."


[/break1]rpv.org/node/5132]http://www.rpv.org/node/5132[/break1]photobucket.com/user/Joseph_Robidoux_III/media/Politics/2014%20Elections/2014%20US%20Senate/Virginia/USSenateVA2014-08-14_zpsc073800d.jpg.html]http://i1143.photobucket.com/albums/n63 ... 73800d.jpg


[/break1]realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/va/virginia_senate_gillespie_vs_warner-4255.html]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -4255.html


Yep, one more debate like the one on July 26 and Sen Mark Warner's gonna be returning to the private sedctor. =))



SPen
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#19

Post by SPen » Fri Aug 15, 2014 5:26 am

Gillespie was absolutely crushed in the first debate, he didn't even have solid answers to questions that everyone knew would be asked at the debate: about Obamacare, about energy, about his extensive history as a lobbyist including his ties to Enron. He was surprisingly bad, even when the expectations were so low for him given the fact that he's a first-time candidate.





I'm honestly surprised that Warner's even agreeing to debate him further because Warner has absolutely no need to, he's on a glide-path.



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