2016 Fight for Senate Control

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Addie
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2016 Fight for Senate Control

#1

Post by Addie » Tue Sep 01, 2015 8:40 am

New York Times
Some Battle Lines Harden, Others Fade, in 2016 Fight for Senate Control

WASHINGTON — While the nation has been preoccupied with cacophonous presidential primary battles, the fight over control of the Senate has been quietly falling into place.

Republican incumbents, who have the daunting task of defending 22 Senate seats in 2016, with about half in competitive states, appear to have snuffed out the ideological wars that have bedeviled them in the last four election cycles; there is little evidence that Tea Party-endorsed challengers are targeting sitting senators.

For now, the party’s fight for ideological purity has shifted to the race for the White House, and to within the halls of Congress. A dearth of tough primaries will most likely leave incumbents’ checkbooks and stamina intact for the general election.

A primary drama of sorts has emerged in the Democratic Party, however, where battle lines are drawn less between dogmas than between establishment-chosen candidates and those trying to bust through the Beltway gatekeepers.


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Re: 2016 Fight for Senate Control

#2

Post by esseff44 » Mon Oct 12, 2015 6:46 pm

Barbara Boxer just sent out an e=mail saying Dem NH Gov. Maggie Hassan will be running for the Senate to replace GOP stalwart and illegimate mother of the incumbent Senator from SC ....or was she his illegimate daughter or were they both the illegimate children of John McCain. Now, if only someone would run against this Senator who says we have to cut back on SS and Midicare or we will sink in red ink before the week is out.

Good for Maggie! What are her chances? What's it like in NH these days? Could they elect a Dem to the Senate? Maybe they are a bit tired of the GOP dwarfs coming through and saying stupid things. Kelly Ayotte is has a heart of granite. That why they elected her.



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Re: 2016 Fight for Senate Control

#3

Post by TollandRCR » Thu Sep 15, 2016 9:23 pm

This really does not give me confidence in the Democratic campaign to retake control of the U.S. Senate. Even if it is from one Harry Reid.
XXX, I won’t sugarcoat this one: The tides have turned and our only shot at victory is hitting tonight’s mid-month fundraising goal.

But an average response from Democrats just won’t do at this point. That’s because GOP special interests OVER PERFORMED these past few weeks -- spending millions more than we expected on damaging negative ads. And now they’re expecting us to throw in the towel.

With the DSCC’s TRIPLE-MATCH in effect until midnight, this is the best chance to prove the determination of our party. Will you pitch in before the critical mid-month deadline?

If you've saved your payment information with ActBlue Express, your donation will go through immediately:
...
Or donate another amount.

I really need you on this one, xxx. The September mid-month fundraising deadline is an enormous test of where our grassroots movement stands for the final election push.

Right now, Democrats aren’t where we need to be. Please help change this by giving before midnight’s deadline. Your gift will go 4X further to get us back on track!

Thank you,
Harry Reid

P.S. Republican special interests are showing no signs of slowing down -- if we want to catch up, we’ve got to step up today.
Was nobody watching the Republican campaign? What did you expect? Why is tonight our "only" shot at victory? [And just where does this matching money come from?] I feel like I am being spoken to as a child. I do not respond well to panic. In fact, I expect adults not to panic.


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Re: 2016 Fight for Senate Control

#4

Post by John Thomas8 » Thu Sep 15, 2016 9:25 pm

Getting the senate back is probably more important than grabbing the White House.



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Re: 2016 Fight for Senate Control

#5

Post by Mary Quite Contrary » Thu Sep 15, 2016 9:26 pm

John Thomas8 wrote:Getting the senate back is probably more important than grabbing the White House.
I'm shooting for both. :pray:


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Re: 2016 Fight for Senate Control

#6

Post by MN-Skeptic » Thu Sep 15, 2016 10:12 pm

John Thomas8 wrote:Getting the senate back is probably more important than grabbing the White House.
I do NOT want a Republican President appointing judges for the next four years!


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Re: 2016 Fight for Senate Control

#7

Post by Foggy » Thu Sep 15, 2016 11:10 pm

Of all the Democratic organizations that ask me for money, I trust the DSCC least of all. That's the group whose strategy in 2014 was to pretend President Obama had no connection to the Democratic Party. How'd that work out for ya, idjits?


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Re: 2016 Fight for Senate Control

#8

Post by John Thomas8 » Fri Sep 16, 2016 8:12 am

MN-Skeptic wrote:
John Thomas8 wrote:Getting the senate back is probably more important than grabbing the White House.
I do NOT want a Republican President appointing judges for the next four years!
But as we've seen, presidents making appointments don't matter as much as senate criminal behavour. Sigh.



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Re: 2016 Fight for Senate Control

#9

Post by TollandRCR » Fri Sep 16, 2016 8:30 am

I wonder if this inept performance from DSCC is a residual of the DWS years.

I have not looked at the line-up of Democratic candidates for the Senate. If there ever were a year in which the Democrats had to put forward strong candidates, this is it.

Despite the consolation from Stern, I still feel that the democracy is at risk in this election.


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Re: 2016 Fight for Senate Control

#10

Post by vic » Fri Sep 16, 2016 3:01 pm

TollandRCR wrote:I wonder if this inept performance from DSCC is a residual of the DWS years.

I have not looked at the line-up of Democratic candidates for the Senate. If there ever were a year in which the Democrats had to put forward strong candidates, this is it.

Despite the consolation from Stern, I still feel that the democracy is at risk in this election.
The only Senate race I know about is the one here in California. The choices are a Democrat or a ... Democrat. We're doing our part, how about the rest of you?



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Re: 2016 Fight for Senate Control

#11

Post by listeme » Fri Sep 16, 2016 3:30 pm

How on earth is this a DWS issue?


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Re: 2016 Fight for Senate Control

#12

Post by TollandRCR » Fri Sep 16, 2016 3:35 pm

listeme wrote:How on earth is this a DWS issue?
The style of fundraising about which I complained was underway when Debbie Wasserman Schultz was still DNC chair. In addition, I think the party as a whole needs to be active in encouraging excellent candidates to run for public office. We cannot repeat running Martha Coakley to replace the Lion of the Senate.


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Re: 2016 Fight for Senate Control

#13

Post by Foggy » Fri Sep 16, 2016 4:34 pm

Wasn't DWS there in 2014? We had some insider posting here back then about all the money they had, but the senators wouldn't support the president. Sterngard kept telling the dood that issues matter, but no, only the money mattered. We saw how that worked. :blackeye:


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Re: 2016 Fight for Senate Control

#14

Post by dunstvangeet » Fri Sep 16, 2016 4:56 pm

The Democrats actually recruited pretty strong candidates for the Senate. Take a look at this list in the competitive seats (which will probably have the Dems taking at least a net pickup of 2).

Arizona - Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick to take on Sen. John McCain
New Hampshire - Gov. Maggie Hassan to take on the Sen. Kelly Ayotte
Indiana - Former Sen. Evan Bayh in an open seat
Wisconsin - Former Sen. Russ Feingold to take on the Sen. Ron Johnson
Illinois - Rep. Tammy Duckworth to take on Sen. Mark Kirk
Florida - Rep. Patrick Murphy to take on Sen. Marco Rubio (was originally recruited as an open seat)
Ohio - Former Gov. Ted Strickland to challenge Rob Portman

These are first-tier candidates. Either current reps, current governors, or people who have run state wide and won before as governors.



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Re: 2016 Fight for Senate Control

#15

Post by TollandRCR » Fri Sep 16, 2016 7:05 pm

That is very good news.

Foggy is right that we had a DNC insider of some description constantly telling us that ideas do not matter, that the DNC's sole goal is to raise money. He or she also implied more than once that fundraising determined election outcomes. He was not receptive to any suggestions, scorning us as political novices.

I have no idea what he is doing today. He might be pumping gas in Oregon.


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Re: 2016 Fight for Senate Control

#16

Post by RoadScholar » Fri Sep 16, 2016 9:47 pm

One might say fundraising is necessary, but not sufficient.


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Re: 2016 Fight for Senate Control

#17

Post by TollandRCR » Fri Sep 16, 2016 9:59 pm

That is probably exactly what we said.


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Re: 2016 Fight for Senate Control

#18

Post by RoadScholar » Fri Sep 16, 2016 10:12 pm

In that case I apologize for wasting your time with my nine-word synopsis.


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Re: 2016 Fight for Senate Control

#19

Post by TollandRCR » Fri Sep 16, 2016 10:37 pm

No wasting of time at all. I was just trying to recall how a conversation that I found very distressing went. Our opponent was extremely cynical, IMHO, and would have worked as well for Romney as for Obama.


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Re: 2016 Fight for Senate Control

#20

Post by Foggy » Fri Sep 16, 2016 11:10 pm

... but he and his condescending comments mysteriously vanished after :sterngard: turned out to be right - again - and President Obama was left making joaks at the White House Correspondents' dinner about how Obamacare provides healthcare to the unemployed, "and you're welcome for that, Senate Democrats." :blackeye: :bag:


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Re: 2016 Fight for Senate Control

#21

Post by Orlylicious » Sat Sep 17, 2016 12:03 am

We have to turn out vote, we're behind and need 4 with HRC, 5 without. OH looks gone, Portman's way up. FL is tough, Murphy had a big character issue. Bayh didn't know his address in IN. Ayotte is gaining steam. Lots of R donors have redirected presidential funds to Senate races. These Senate candidates need our help, if you don't like the DSCC please consider direct donations. This should be a D year, the 2018 map is brutal. If we don't get now we're looking at 2020.

ETA: CNN Politics ‏@CNNPolitics 6m6 minutes ago
Hillary Clinton's struggles cloud Democratic hopes for Senate majority
Less than two months until Election Day, Democratic confidence has been shaken, as Hillary Clinton suddenly finds herself trailing Donald Trump in some swing states and a fresh batch of polls show GOP incumbents in the lead.

"Everybody needs to step it up," said Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio.

In Ohio and Florida, GOP incumbents now have double-digit leads, according to a new CNN-ORC poll released Wednesday, undercutting Democratic efforts to pick up seats once viewed as prime opportunities. In New Hampshire, two polls show Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte now in the lead after falling behind Gov. Maggie Hassan last month. And in Nevada, Rep. Joe Heck holds a slight edge over his Democratic challenger Catherine Cortez Masto, buoyed in part by Trump's sudden resurgence in their state.

This comes as other seats that once appeared within reach, like John McCain's in Arizona, seem to be a steeper climb. And a prized Democratic recruit in Indiana, former Sen. Evan Bayh, has stumbled on the campaign trail, seeing his once commanding lead now shrinking to single digits.
http://cnn.it/2cDDD1g
dunstvangeet wrote:The Democrats actually recruited pretty strong candidates for the Senate. Take a look at this list in the competitive seats (which will probably have the Dems taking at least a net pickup of 2).

Arizona - Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick to take on Sen. John McCain
New Hampshire - Gov. Maggie Hassan to take on the Sen. Kelly Ayotte
Indiana - Former Sen. Evan Bayh in an open seat
Wisconsin - Former Sen. Russ Feingold to take on the Sen. Ron Johnson
Illinois - Rep. Tammy Duckworth to take on Sen. Mark Kirk
Florida - Rep. Patrick Murphy to take on Sen. Marco Rubio (was originally recruited as an open seat)
Ohio - Former Gov. Ted Strickland to challenge Rob Portman

These are first-tier candidates. Either current reps, current governors, or people who have run state wide and won before as governors.


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Re: 2016 Fight for Senate Control

#22

Post by Dan1100 » Sat Sep 17, 2016 4:18 pm

Electoral-vote-com shows in the Missouri Senate race that Jason Kander (D) is 2 points ahead of Roy Blunt (R). I think Jason has a pretty fair chance. As I've said before, Right to Work being in play is going to drive Democratic turnout. http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/S ... souri.html

(edit: Here is the Real Clear Politics page on the race - http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -5631.html )

That announcement of course was just an excuse to post this ad, where Jason Kander assembles an AR-15 blind-folded while saying he is for background checks.


[youtube][/youtube]

(edit for clarity - i.e. which state I was talking about)


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Re: 2016 Fight for Senate Control

#23

Post by esseff44 » Sat Sep 17, 2016 4:47 pm

Wow! That is an impressive ad. Keep us posted on this race. One more Dem in the Senate is a big deal.



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Re: 2016 Fight for Senate Control

#24

Post by esseff44 » Fri Sep 23, 2016 10:58 am

In Nevada, the race is very tight for Harry Reid's Senate seat. Joe Heck has had a narrow lead. He has a 19-year-old son who has a habit of trolling the internet with nasty racist, sexist, homophobic, etc. comments. The comments got a lot of attention in 2013 but he has been at it again. Will it matter in Nevada to the voters? How many times do you get to apologize?

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Re: 2016 Fight for Senate Control

#25

Post by jmj » Wed Oct 19, 2016 3:11 pm

esseff44 wrote:In Nevada, the race is very tight for Harry Reid's Senate seat. Joe Heck has had a narrow lead. He has a 19-year-old son who has a habit of trolling the internet with nasty racist, sexist, homophobic, etc. comments. The comments got a lot of attention in 2013 but he has been at it again. Will it matter in Nevada to the voters? How many times do you get to apologize?

https://www.buzzfeed.com/christophermas ... ist-commen
A couple new polls are showing Cortez Masto tied or ahead. FiveThirtyEight just recently had Cortez Masto taking over the lead in their forecast: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/201 ... ada/#polls

Also, several other pretty good polls were released lately. A couple showing decent leads for Bayh and Feingold (who had a couple not-so-great polls recently), and some good numbers for Missouri (which looks like it may be in play as well). FiveThirtyEight puts the likelihood of a Dem senate majority at about 75% right now. :thumbs:



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