CIA assessment: Russia helped Trump win & Senate knew it

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Re: CIA assessment: Russia helped Trump win & Senate knew it

#1101

Post by Addie » Wed Nov 15, 2017 11:15 am

The Times UK - (subscription)
Russia used Twitter bots and trolls ‘to disrupt’ Brexit vote | News

Russian Twitter accounts posted more than 45,000 messages about Brexit in 48 hours during last year’s referendum in an apparently co-ordinated attempt to sow discord, The Times can reveal.

More than 150,000 accounts based in Russia, which had previously confined their posts to subjects such as the Ukrainian conflict, switched attention to Brexit in the days leading up to last year’s vote, according to research for an upcoming paper by data scientists at Swansea University and the University of California, Berkeley.

Russian activity spiked on June 23, the day of the referendum, and on June 24 when the result was announced. From posting fewer than 1,000 tweets a day before June 13, the accounts — many of which are virulently pro-Putin — posted 39,000 tweets on June…
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Re: CIA assessment: Russia helped Trump win & Senate knew it

#1102

Post by Addie » Wed Nov 15, 2017 12:30 pm

The Guardian
Christopher Steele believes his dossier on Trump-Russia is 70-90% accurate | US news ...

The book, Collusion: How Russia Helped Donald Trump Win, by Guardian journalist Luke Harding, quotes Steele as telling friends that he believes his reports – based on sources cultivated over three decades of intelligence work – will be vindicated as the US special counsel investigation digs deeper into contacts between Trump, his associates and Moscow. ...

Between 2014 and 2016, he authored more than a hundred reports on Russia and Ukraine, which were commissioned by private clients but shared widely within the state department and passed across the desks of the secretary of state, John Kerry, and the assistant secretary Victoria Nuland, who led the US response to the annexation of Crimea and the covert invasion of eastern Ukraine.

The sources for those reports were the same as those quoted in the dossier on Trump, which included allegations that the Kremlin had personally compromising material on the US president including sex tapes recorded during a trip to Moscow in 2013, and that Trump and his associates actively colluded with Russian intelligence to influence the election in his favour.

Years earlier, Steele shared the results of his investigation of the global football organisation, Fifa, with a senior FBI official in Rome that let to an investigation by US federal prosecutors, and ultimately the arrest of seven Fifa officials.

“The episode burnished Steele’s reputation inside the US intelligence community and the FBI. Here was a pro, a well-connected Brit, who understood Russian espionage and its subterranean tricks. Steele was regarded as credible,” Harding writes.
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Re: CIA assessment: Russia helped Trump win & Senate knew it

#1103

Post by Addie » Thu Nov 16, 2017 7:44 am

This is a long piece, but worth the time.
The Guardian: How Trump walked into Putin’s web

The inside story of how a former British spy was hired to investigate Russia’s influence on Trump – and uncovered explosive evidence that Moscow had been cultivating Trump for years. By Luke Harding
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Re: CIA assessment: Russia helped Trump win & Senate knew it

#1104

Post by Kendra » Thu Nov 16, 2017 9:02 am

Addie wrote:
Thu Nov 16, 2017 7:44 am
This is a long piece, but worth the time.
The Guardian: How Trump walked into Putin’s web

The inside story of how a former British spy was hired to investigate Russia’s influence on Trump – and uncovered explosive evidence that Moscow had been cultivating Trump for years. By Luke Harding
A must read. Thank you Addie.

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Re: CIA assessment: Russia helped Trump win & Senate knew it

#1105

Post by Addie » Thu Nov 16, 2017 9:06 am

You're welcome, Kendra. It is excellent. Just think what a mysterious figure Christopher Steele was when we started this journey.
Kendra wrote:
Thu Nov 16, 2017 9:02 am
A must read. Thank you Addie.
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Re: CIA assessment: Russia helped Trump win & Senate knew it

#1106

Post by Addie » Fri Nov 17, 2017 9:10 pm

NBC News
Russian troll describes work in the infamous misinformation factory

For months, Vitaly Bespalov, 26, was one of hundreds of workers pumping out misinformation online at the Internet Research Agency, the Russian troll factory responsible for explosive content seen by 126 million Americans in the run-up to the U.S. presidential election.

“These troll farms can produce such a volume of content with hashtags and topics that it distorts what is normal organic conversation,” Clint Watts, senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, told NBC News. “It’s called computational propaganda, the volume [at] which they push, false information or true, makes things appear more believable than they might normally be in an organic conversation.”

Following Russia’s annexation of the Crimean peninsula of Ukraine in 2014 — and Russia's subsequent suspension from the G8, plus heavy international sanctions — Bespalov was hired at the troll factory to rewrite articles about Ukraine for a site that was designed to look like it was based out of that country, not St. Petersburg, Russia.

Eventually, some of the IRA’s social media accounts that started out supporting Russian actions in Ukraine later morphed into accounts that advocated for President-elect Trump as early as December 2015, according to U.S. intelligence. “I now believe nothing I come across on social media,” Bespalov said.
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Re: CIA assessment: Russia helped Trump win & Senate knew it

#1107

Post by Addie » Sun Nov 19, 2017 1:49 pm

Politico Mag
The Hidden History of Trump’s First Trip to Moscow

In 1987, a young real estate developer traveled to the Soviet Union. The KGB almost certainly made the trip happen.
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Re: CIA assessment: Russia helped Trump win & Senate knew it

#1108

Post by Kendra » Sun Nov 19, 2017 1:51 pm

Addie wrote:
Sun Nov 19, 2017 1:49 pm
Politico Mag
The Hidden History of Trump’s First Trip to Moscow

In 1987, a young real estate developer traveled to the Soviet Union. The KGB almost certainly made the trip happen.
I posted this on the Pres Trump page. Well worth reading.

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Re: CIA assessment: Russia helped Trump win & Senate knew it

#1109

Post by Addie » Thu Nov 23, 2017 10:22 am

Vanity Fair: Exclusive: What Trump Really Told Kislyak After Comey Was Canned

During a May 10 meeting in the Oval Office, the president betrayed his intelligence community by leaking the content of a classified, and highly sensitive, Israeli intelligence operation to two high-ranking Russian envoys, Sergey Kislyak and Sergey Lavrov. This is what he told them—and the ramifications.
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Re: CIA assessment: Russia helped Trump win & Senate knew it

#1110

Post by Kendra » Thu Nov 23, 2017 11:06 am

Addie wrote:
Thu Nov 23, 2017 10:22 am
Vanity Fair: Exclusive: What Trump Really Told Kislyak After Comey Was Canned

During a May 10 meeting in the Oval Office, the president betrayed his intelligence community by leaking the content of a classified, and highly sensitive, Israeli intelligence operation to two high-ranking Russian envoys, Sergey Kislyak and Sergey Lavrov. This is what he told them—and the ramifications.
TY, still reading but this jumps out.
It was against this reassuring backdrop of recent successes and shared history, an Israeli source told Vanity Fair, that a small group of Mossad officers and other Israeli intelligence officials took their seats in a Langley conference room on a January morning just weeks before the inauguration of Donald Trump. The meeting proceeded uneventfully; updates on a variety of ongoing classified operations were dutifully shared. It was only as the meeting was about to break up that an American spymaster solemnly announced there was one more thing: American intelligence agencies had come to believe that Russian president Vladimir Putin had “leverages of pressure” over Trump, he declared without offering further specifics, according to a report in the Israeli press. Israel, the American officials continued, should “be careful” after January 20—the date of Trump’s inauguration. It was possible that sensitive information shared with the White House and the National Security Council could be leaked to the Russians. A moment later the officials added what many of the Israelis had already deduced: it was reasonable to presume that the Kremlin would share some of what they learned with their ally Iran, Israel’s most dangerous adversary.

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Re: CIA assessment: Russia helped Trump win & Senate knew it

#1111

Post by pipistrelle » Thu Nov 23, 2017 11:12 am

I'm still befuddled as to how a willfully ignorant 19th-century style huckster gets in so deep with such matters.

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Re: CIA assessment: Russia helped Trump win & Senate knew it

#1112

Post by Sterngard Friegen » Thu Nov 23, 2017 11:17 am

Netanyahu has been told by his spymasters that Trump is not to be trusted. According to the Vanity Fair article they were apoplectic that Trump shared the details of a secret operation with the Russians as a bit of braggadocio. Maybe Netanyahu will realize the mistake of backing Trump over Hillary Clinton. Certainly the American spy agencies do. According to the article they're providing as much as they can to Mueller to bring Trump down.

The subtext of the article could be that there is an attempted coup being mounted against Trump by the CIA. Gripping stuff. And I certainly hope it's true -- and legal -- and that Mueller can pull it off.

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Re: CIA assessment: Russia helped Trump win & Senate knew it

#1113

Post by Flatpointhigh » Thu Nov 23, 2017 8:38 pm

Sterngard Friegen wrote:
Thu Nov 23, 2017 11:17 am
Netanyahu has been told by his spymasters that Trump is not to be trusted. According to the Vanity Fair article they were apoplectic that Trump shared the details of a secret operation with the Russians as a bit of braggadocio. Maybe Netanyahu will realize the mistake of backing Trump over Hillary Clinton. Certainly the American spy agencies do. According to the article they're providing as much as they can to Mueller to bring Trump down.

The subtext of the article could be that there is an attempted coup being mounted against Trump by the CIA. Gripping stuff. And I certainly hope it's true -- and legal -- and that Mueller can pull it off.
before or after Netanyahu gets sentenced for corruption?

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Re: CIA assessment: Russia helped Trump win & Senate knew it

#1114

Post by Addie » Fri Nov 24, 2017 7:46 am

Cross-posting from Mueller thread - Seth Abramson @SethAbramson:
4/ The next things one has to understand are: (a) the so-called "pee tape" does not involve any sexual behavior by Trump; (b) a tape "of a sexual nature" from this night has been confirmed by the CIA to the BBC (January 2017); (c) there are eight confirmed witnesses...

5/ ...who've been located by major media or intelligence agencies who can speak to events relevant to these allegations from the Steele Dossier (because they immediately preceded them); (d) this issue has nothing to do with sex—and everything to do with Trump being compromised...

6/ ...by a blackmail-enabling video that is confirmed to exist *and*—the evidence now suggests—a phone call that directly suggests a "quid pro quo" smoking gun connecting Trump's run for the presidency and his thirty-year desire to build Trump Tower Moscow; and (e) we now have...

7/ ...so much more intel about the events of November 9, 2013—and the wee hours of November 10, 2013—than has been reported in U.S. media that to relay it creates the sense I'm making it up. *I am not*. The media is behind on this story and you can either accept that fact or not.
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Oh. I've just discovered a really cool website that puts twit threads into readable format. So here is the above thread in a format you can actually read.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/933582030327177216
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Re: CIA assessment: Russia helped Trump win & Senate knew it

#1115

Post by Sterngard Friegen » Fri Nov 24, 2017 9:43 am

This is a mess of speculation and conclusion jumping. Louise Mensch with a Harvard Law Degree. Sad.

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Re: CIA assessment: Russia helped Trump win & Senate knew it

#1116

Post by pipistrelle » Fri Nov 24, 2017 10:15 am

Sterngard Friegen wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 9:43 am
This is a mess of speculation and conclusion jumping. Louise Mensch with a Harvard Law Degree. Sad.
That's how I always see his threads — like they could be 10 tweets if all the stuffing were cut.

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Re: CIA assessment: Russia helped Trump win & Senate knew it

#1117

Post by Mikedunford » Fri Nov 24, 2017 10:54 am

Sterngard Friegen wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 9:43 am
This is a mess of speculation and conclusion jumping. Louise Mensch with a Harvard Law Degree. Sad.
:yeah:

Let’s go ahead and presume there was, in fact, a quid pro quo involved in the Moscow Miss Universe pageant. To me, it seems much more likely that the letter of intent for the building project was Trump’s previously agreed upon (if only tacitly) reward for bringing the pageant to Russia. And when I say much more likely, I’m talking about by orders of magnitude.

From the Russian perspective, the Trump Tower project in Moscow would have been routine, modest inbound foreign direct investment (FDI). Russia’s economy needs inbound FDI, and has for some time. That hasn’t stopped Russia (and individual factions within Russia) from doing what they can to get what they can from such projects, but it does somewhat limit their available leverage. Yes, they might want some concessions from the foreign investor. But they also know - as would potential investors smarter than bread mold* - that declining the project means losing opportunities to do things like steer lucrative supply and construction contracts to friends and so on. Based on scale, the permits for the pageant seems substantially more realistic than as a deal for a presidential run.

And as for why Trump might have told Putin that he was running for President, this is Donald Trump we’re talking about - quite possibly the most insecure man on the planet. He’s a bragging bragger who brags all the time, in a phone call with a guy who has the power to annihilate most of humanity within 3 hours. He’s out of his depth, and any time he’s out of his depth his instinct is to brag his way to even footing.



*Quite possibly meaning that they had more leverage with the Trump Organization than the would have had with a major multinational.
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Re: CIA assessment: Russia helped Trump win & Senate knew it

#1118

Post by Suranis » Sat Nov 25, 2017 4:17 am

Remember, Trump's been telling people he's running for President for decades. He actually ran in 2000. And always he went ballistic when people didn't believe him, and demanded the kind of press that a respective candidate gets. He actually got that press back in 2012 when the Press was all over his pimply ass.

On another level, this is the transcript of an interview on NPR with a guy who has written a book on the Trump russia connections. Its a bit of a slog to read through but its interesting in a "put everything in one place" way

https://www.npr.org/2017/11/21/56565450 ... -collusion
TERRY GROSS, HOST:

This is FRESH AIR. I'm Terry Gross. The new book "Collusion" is about what the author, my guest Luke Harding, says appears to be an emerging pattern of collusion between Russia, Donald Trump and his campaign. Harding also writes about how Russia appears to have started cultivating Trump back in 1987. The book is based on original reporting as well as on the Trump-Russia dossier compiled by former British intelligence agent Christopher Steele. Harding met with Steele twice, once before and once after the dossier became public. Harding had a lot of good contacts to draw on for this book because he spent four years as the Moscow bureau chief for the British newspaper The Guardian. During that time, the Kremlin didn't like some of the stories Harding was investigating, and in 2011, he was expelled. In Moscow, he learned a lot about Russian espionage partly through his own experience of being spied on and harassed.

Harding is now a foreign correspondent for The Guardian. He's also the author of books about WikiLeaks, Edward Snowden and Alexander Litvinenko, the former Russian spy who fled to England, passed information to British intelligence about links between the Kremlin and the Russian mafia and then was assassinated with polonium-spiked tea.

....

LUKE HARDING: Well, the KGB really forever has been interested in cultivating people, actually, who might be useful contacts for them, identifying targets for possible recruitments possibly to be agents. That's not saying that Donald Trump is an agent, but the point is that he would have been on their radar certainly by 1977 when he married Ivana, who came from Czechoslovakia, a kind of communist Eastern bloc country. And we know from Czechoslovak spy records de-classified last year that the spy agencies were in contact with Ivana's father, that they kept an eye on the Trumps in Manhattan throughout the 1980s. And we also know, from defectors and other sources, that whatever Prague learned, communist Prague, would have been funneled to the big guys in Moscow, to the KGB. So there would have been a file on Donald Trump.

But I think what's kind of interesting about this story, if you understand the kind of Russian espionage background, is Trump's first visit to Soviet Moscow in 1987. He went with Ivana. He writes about it in "The Art Of The Deal," his best-selling memoir. He talks about getting an invitation from the Soviet government to go over there. And he makes it seem kind of rather casual. But what I discovered from my research is that there was actually a concerted effort by the Soviet government via the ambassador at the time, who was newly arrived, a guy called Yuri Dubinin, to kind of charm Trump, to flatter him, to woo him almost. And Dubinin's daughter, sort of who was part of this process, said that the ambassador rushed up to the top of Trump Tower, basically kind of breezed into Trump's office and he melted. That's the verb she used. He melted.
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Re: CIA assessment: Russia helped Trump win & Senate knew it

#1119

Post by Addie » Sat Nov 25, 2017 10:22 am

Washington Monthly - Martin Longman
A #TrumpRussia Confession in Plain Sight ...

Konstantin Rykov has been a key player in all of this, so when he says that he partnered with Trump beginning back on election night in 2012 and that together they came up with a plan to pay Cambridge Analytica to create “5,000 existing human psychotypes — the ‘ideal image’ of a possible Trump supporter and then “put this image back on all psychotypes and thus pick up a universal key to anyone and everyone,” I think we ought to take it seriously.

When Rykov made these statements, we didn’t know how Cambridge Analytica had been utilized or how they targeted users on Facebook in key districts in swing states in order to maximize Trump’s support. In retrospect, what Rykov was saying now makes a lot of sense and fits in with what we know.

Even Fox News recently reported that Cambridge Analytica sought to work with WikiLeaks in obtaining and releasing illegally hacked emails from Hillary Clinton’s server. In Rykov’s telling, the initial conspiracy also involved “a pair of hacker groups” (presumably Fancy Bear and Cozy Bear) and a political strategist named Mikhail Kovalev. I can’t find much online about this Mr. Kovalev except a little fragment from a paywalled January Economist article about Moscow power players toasting President Trump’s inauguration: “We hope that Marine Le Pen will win next,” said Mikhail Kovalev, one of the party’s organisers, sporting a Trump-Pence baseball cap.

What it looks like to me is that on November 12th, 2016, Konstantin Rykov posted pretty close to a full confession in Facebook. We’ve spent over a year since then trying to piece together what happened, but there’s a strong sense in which he already told us.

Could he possibly have made such boasts without having any knowledge of what would soon be divulged or discovered about Russian hacking and collusion between Wikileaks and Cambridge Analytica or the work that was done by Cambridge Analytica and how it was utilized on social media?
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Re: CIA assessment: Russia helped Trump win & Senate knew it

#1120

Post by TexasFilly » Sat Nov 25, 2017 10:47 am

Mike Dunford wrote: From the Russian perspective, the Trump Tower project in Moscow would have been routine, modest inbound foreign direct investment (FDI). Russia’s economy needs inbound FDI, and has for some time. That hasn’t stopped Russia (and individual factions within Russia) from doing what they can to get what they can from such projects, but it does somewhat limit their available leverage. Yes, they might want some concessions from the foreign investor. But they also know - as would potential investors smarter than bread mold* - that declining the project means losing opportunities to do things like steer lucrative supply and construction contracts to friends and so on. Based on scale, the permits for the pageant seems substantially more realistic than as a deal for a presidential run.
By FDI, do you mean laundered Russian money?
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Re: CIA assessment: Russia helped Trump win & Senate knew it

#1121

Post by GhostOfSolomon » Sat Nov 25, 2017 1:07 pm

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Re: CIA assessment: Russia helped Trump win & Senate knew it

#1122

Post by Mikedunford » Sun Nov 26, 2017 7:50 pm

TexasFilly wrote:
Sat Nov 25, 2017 10:47 am
Mike Dunford wrote: From the Russian perspective, the Trump Tower project in Moscow would have been routine, modest inbound foreign direct investment (FDI). Russia’s economy needs inbound FDI, and has for some time. That hasn’t stopped Russia (and individual factions within Russia) from doing what they can to get what they can from such projects, but it does somewhat limit their available leverage. Yes, they might want some concessions from the foreign investor. But they also know - as would potential investors smarter than bread mold* - that declining the project means losing opportunities to do things like steer lucrative supply and construction contracts to friends and so on. Based on scale, the permits for the pageant seems substantially more realistic than as a deal for a presidential run.
By FDI, do you mean laundered Russian money?
No, but I wasn't intending to exclude it either. The key to FDI is that the money is coming in from another country. It could be a means for Russians to repatriate laundered funds, but it could be fresh money laundering on the part of criminals from other countries or even clean money from various sources being legitimately invested.

From the perspective of the Russian government, not sure the source matters. The key is that it's an inflow of money at a time when such inflows are needed.
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Re: CIA assessment: Russia helped Trump win & Senate knew it

#1123

Post by Addie » Sun Nov 26, 2017 11:32 pm



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Re: CIA assessment: Russia helped Trump win & Senate knew it

#1124

Post by Slim Cognito » Mon Nov 27, 2017 6:27 am

That show chilled me to the bone.
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Re: CIA assessment: Russia helped Trump win & Senate knew it

#1125

Post by Addie » Mon Nov 27, 2017 9:17 am

Yeah, really. I'm about to watch the second part now.
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