Hillary Rodham Clinton vs. Donald John Trump 2016

Who Will Win The 2016 US Presidential Election?

Hillary Rodham Clinton
147
95%
Donald John Trump
8
5%
 
Total votes: 155

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Mikedunford
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Re: Hillary Rodham Clinton vs. Donald John Trump 2016

#1101

Post by Mikedunford »

Any postmortem should probably include things Trump did right in addition to things that Democrats did wrong.
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TollandRCR
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Re: Hillary Rodham Clinton vs. Donald John Trump 2016

#1102

Post by TollandRCR »

This may appear to be out of logical order once those messages are moved, but I think this could and should be said by Democrats in any circumstances to remind us of what we stand for:
I see a great nation, upon a great continent, blessed with a great wealth of natural resources. Its hundred and thirty million people are at peace among themselves; they are making their country a good neighbor among the nations. I see a United States which can demonstrate that, under democratic methods of government, national wealth can be translated into a spreading volume of human comforts hitherto unknown, and the lowest standard of living can be raised far above the level of mere subsistence.

But here is the challenge to our democracy: In this nation I see tens of millions of its citizens—a substantial part of its whole population—who at this very moment are denied the greater part of what the very lowest standards of today call the necessities of life.

I see millions of families trying to live on incomes so meager that the pall of family disaster hangs over them day by day.

I see millions whose daily lives in city and on farm continue under conditions labeled indecent by a so-called polite society half a century ago.

I see millions denied education, recreation, and the opportunity to better their lot and the lot of their children.

I see millions lacking the means to buy the products of farm and factory and by their poverty denying work and productiveness to many other millions.

I see one-third of a nation ill-housed, ill-clad, ill-nourished.

But it is not in despair that I paint you that picture. I paint it for you in hope—because the nation, seeing and understanding the injustice in it, proposes to paint it out. We are determined to make every American citizen the subject of his country’s interest and concern; and we will never regard any faithful law-abiding group within our borders as superfluous. The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little.
Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Second Inaugural Address, January 20, 1937 http://historymatters.gmu.edu/d/5105/
“The truth is, we know so little about life, we don’t really know what the good news is and what the bad news is.” Kurt Vonnegut

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Lani
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Re: Hillary Rodham Clinton vs. Donald John Trump 2016

#1103

Post by Lani »

Mikedunford wrote:Any postmortem should probably include things Trump did right in addition to things that Democrats did wrong.
Frontline is currently running a 2 part documentary called Divided States of America. Painful to watch. It's about the undercurrent of rage in the US, first brought to the fore in recent years by Palin (in Frontline's opinion), promoted by the Tea Party, and celebrated by Trump. He "did right" to encourage and harness it, if doing right means winning at the expense of a compassionate and equitable society.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/film/ ... f-america/
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Mikedunford
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Re: Hillary Rodham Clinton vs. Donald John Trump 2016

#1104

Post by Mikedunford »

Lani wrote:
Mikedunford wrote:Any postmortem should probably include things Trump did right in addition to things that Democrats did wrong.
Frontline is currently running a 2 part documentary called Divided States of America. Painful to watch. It's about the undercurrent of rage in the US, first brought to the fore in recent years by Palin (in Frontline's opinion), promoted by the Tea Party, and celebrated by Trump. He "did right" to encourage and harness it, if doing right means winning at the expense of a compassionate and equitable society.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/film/ ... f-america/
Yeah, I should have qualified that I didn't mean "did right" to imply any level of moral judgement or approval of message. Actually, I was mostly thinking in terms of techniques and tactics, such as the use of targeted social media micro-advertising.
"I don't give a fuck whether we're peers or not."
--Lord Thomas Henry Bingham to Boris Johnson, on being asked whether he would miss being in "the best club in London" if the Law Lords moved from Parliament to a Supreme Court.

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Lani
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Re: Hillary Rodham Clinton vs. Donald John Trump 2016

#1105

Post by Lani »

Mikedunford wrote:
Lani wrote: :snippity:
Yeah, I should have qualified that I didn't mean "did right" to imply any level of moral judgement or approval of message. Actually, I was mostly thinking in terms of techniques and tactics, such as the use of targeted social media micro-advertising.
I didn't mean it that way, Mike. I understood your meaning. I was expressing my personal difficulty with using the term right when so much harm is being done.
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Mikedunford
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Re: Hillary Rodham Clinton vs. Donald John Trump 2016

#1106

Post by Mikedunford »

Lani wrote:
Mikedunford wrote:
Lani wrote: :snippity:
Yeah, I should have qualified that I didn't mean "did right" to imply any level of moral judgement or approval of message. Actually, I was mostly thinking in terms of techniques and tactics, such as the use of targeted social media micro-advertising.
I didn't mean it that way, Mike. I understood your meaning. I was expressing my personal difficulty with using the term right when so much harm is being done.
No worries. I was pretty sure that you got my meaning. But I also was literally getting ready to go back and put that disclaimer into the original when I saw your reply, because I wasn't sure it was going to be clear for everyone.
"I don't give a fuck whether we're peers or not."
--Lord Thomas Henry Bingham to Boris Johnson, on being asked whether he would miss being in "the best club in London" if the Law Lords moved from Parliament to a Supreme Court.

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Re: Hillary Rodham Clinton vs. Donald John Trump 2016

#1107

Post by RoadScholar »

But you have struck the crux of these matters: the tension between wanting to behave ethically and wanting to win elections.
The bitterest truth is healthier than the sweetest lie.
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Lani
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Re: Hillary Rodham Clinton vs. Donald John Trump 2016

#1108

Post by Lani »

I made it through the 2nd part of Divided States of America tonight. I wasn't sure I could handle it. It documents the rise in power of the angry right. Seeing 8 years of rage and racism condensed into four hours over two nights was intense. And resulted in PEOTUS Trump.

I'm interested in hearing what other fogbowzers thought about it.

Afterwards I browsed the news and learned that there was another wave of bomb threats against synagogues and Jewish centers across the US.
Marla Cohen, communications manager for the New-York based, JCC Association of North America said that 28 centers in 17 states have been threatened in total on Wednesday.
"I think this is the world we now live in," said Molly Jo Rosen, who works at Kol Shofar synagogue in Tiburon, California. "There will be threats to religious organizations and we'll see it skewed toward certain religions more than others."
http://www.necn.com/news/national-inter ... 82955.html
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TollandRCR
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Re: Hillary Rodham Clinton vs. Donald John Trump 2016

#1109

Post by TollandRCR »

Moved to this topic
Sam the Centipede wrote:...
Correcting the misinformation (per TollandRCR's comment) is a very sweet idea, but is naively optimistic. It goes against the fact that these revolting news organizations were peddling lying filth at voters for many years before and continued to do so during the election. It's a huge problem for a distrusted political party (politicians, booo!!) to sell their line against a bunch of favorite news stations (honest Fox news!!) who misrepresent what the liberal wing is saying and proposing.
We once had a contributor who told us that we were naive in thinking that ideas matter. The only thing that matters, he or she said, is who raises the most money. We never heard from that contributor after the election, which was a big Democratic failure.

I know that I was never able to change my own father's opinions about African Americans, and he had presumably attained those opinions later in life, having been born in Mount Vernon, Ohio.

I don't expect anybody to get rid of all the misinformation and prejudice that abounds here. I do expect a candidate to speak to the people, not just to select people who happen to agree with him or her. When that is not done, it is not a campaign, it is a get-out-the-vote program.

I long for a candidate who will make as great an effort as did Harry Truman to reach all the American people.

(I know there are models that direct modern campaigns. I say chuck the models until Democrats are back in power. The models are not working.)
“The truth is, we know so little about life, we don’t really know what the good news is and what the bad news is.” Kurt Vonnegut

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Suranis
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Re: Hillary Rodham Clinton vs. Donald John Trump 2016

#1110

Post by Suranis »

Regarding what you said about your thought that HRC should have visited Wisconsin later in the campaign, I don't disagree with you, it probably would have been a good thing and would have encouraged people. But all we would have heard about it is a "Low attendance rally in her firewall" etc, and I am not really sure it would have affected the rural counties that went Trump very much.
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Suranis
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Re: Hillary Rodham Clinton vs. Donald John Trump 2016

#1111

Post by Suranis »

By the way, I'm one of the people that voted trump in that poll. I did it so I would be able to joke that I got things wrong boo hoo. Needless to say, I hate it when I'm right. :crying:
The difference between the Middle Ages, and the Age of the Internet, is that in the Middle Ages no-one thought the Earth was flat.

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listeme
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Re: Hillary Rodham Clinton vs. Donald John Trump 2016

#1112

Post by listeme »

bloP wrote:
TollandRCR wrote:bloP and Orlylicious, your posts answer the question that Hillary posed, "Why am I not winning by 50 points?" But the answer to that question does not matter. Hillary would have won if she had campaigned successfully to rural white voters in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. She either was never advised to do so or she refused to do so. THAT cost her the election.

Your answers put the blame for Trump's election on voters. Of course, that must be true. But your answers put no blame on the DNC or Hillary's campaign or Hillary herself for not reaching those voters, except for bemoaning the lack of a messaging apparatus in the DNC. It was your job to reach those voters upon whom the Democratic Party has depended for years. We have to stop blaming Republicans for Democrats' losing elections and start blaming Democrats instead. That is the only thing over which Democrats have control.
I'm just not sure that's true. Between the Rust Belt voters that fell for Bernie's populism and the younger voters who it appears were just too ideologically pure to vote for Hillary, she was being pulled in opposite directions. Had she focused more on the white, working-class vote, she'd likely have lost more of the young, idealistically pure vote. And at least at this point, it seems that she needed both in these key states where she just barely lost. So we may just as well be having the opposite conversation now. I'm sure there's some campaign strategy that could have worked. But I'm also sure the margin of error is just too large to determine in hindsight how she should have campaigned, and, more importantly, far too large to guide future campaigns when there's even less data than we have now.

The root cause of both the Rust Belt and young voter loss is a structural problem. It's a trend. The same pool of misinformation was pulling the fringes of the Democratic electorate in opposite directions. That's where the real fight should be. It should be in protecting candidates from toxic misinformation well before elections so that they don't enter already smelling of the stink of corruption. This is ever more important because we can see a global alignment in right wing propaganda.

Suppose that we decide that the DNC just shouldn't run candidates that the GOP has been trashing for years, as many have suggested with respect to Hillary. First, I'm pretty sure the DNC can't control that. They could only hope to encourage younger, less experienced candidates and after a few election cycles, somehow convince ambitious, experienced politicians that they really shouldn't run. Second, we'd be holding back our best, most experienced and vetted candidates for our least experienced and least vetted candidates. If that's absolutely the best we could do, then I'd support it. But it's a terrible compromise and to some extent it puts party politics above national interests.

Suppose, instead, that we chose to spend the next four years fighting the right wing misinformation machine. Maybe we can't touch those already too far gone. But had general news and commentary that liberals prefer been more insightful in coverage and had better defended experienced, primed Democratic politicians from misinformation, just maybe we wouldn't be in this mess, because just maybe those #neverhillary folks wouldn't have fallen for the ridiculous idea that, for example, Hillary murders her political foes.

It's not that I'm trying to say the DNC or the Hillary campaign have no fault here. Or that there was nothing they could have done better. I'm saying that we drove over a series of landmines that the right wing messaging infrastructure placed over the past few decades. We can try to get better drivers all we want, but it might also be time to think about getting rid of the damned landmines before moving forward again. Because that right wing messaging machine is out there right now placing more mines. They're not just a step ahead of us-- they're decades ahead of us. And they appear to be forging a global alliance at a time when they have historical wealth.

This loss is bigger than this election.
We're used to being told it's our fault that men don't listen to us.

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listeme
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Re: Hillary Rodham Clinton vs. Donald John Trump 2016

#1113

Post by listeme »

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/th ... y-of-2016/

Some good stuff in it and stuff we'll all be arguing about for a looooong time. But enjoy.

I will likely come back and edit in some quotes, but I don't want to weigh the post yet.
We're used to being told it's our fault that men don't listen to us.

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listeme
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Re: Hillary Rodham Clinton vs. Donald John Trump 2016

#1114

Post by listeme »

Episode 2 in 538's version of a postmortem:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it- ... n-to-lose/

There's a lot of interesting stuff in this one, too.

Still refraining from paragraph quoting.
We're used to being told it's our fault that men don't listen to us.

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Addie
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Re: Hillary Rodham Clinton vs. Donald John Trump 2016

#1115

Post by Addie »

Esquire: The Untold Stories of Election Day 2016
Democracy is a garden that has to be tended. -Barack Obama

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