2016: Polls

Mr. Gneiss
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Re: 2016: Polls

#976

Post by Mr. Gneiss »

Thanks Slarti! It is precisely ;) because of you being IAADS that I posed the questions. Models (in whatever form they take) are simplifications of the real world; in this case polling as predictive models of the election.

I look forward to your analysis. As for me, I'll be above timberline the next few days looking for stones set in the 1880s. The hypobaric regime tends to strip away idle thought. :-D


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jmj
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Re: 2016: Polls

#977

Post by jmj »

New Wisconsin poll: Clinton up 10% among registered voters, 15% among likely voters

http://www.jsonline.com/story/news/poli ... /88519364/


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PatGund
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Re: 2016: Polls

#978

Post by PatGund »

Well, I think we have the "Unskewed Polls" site for 2016

https://www.longroom.com/polls/

While they claim a long "track record" of polling, the site doesn't seem to have existed until January of this year, The domain was created in January of 2008, but nothing much was done with it until December of 2015.

And their front page is conspiracy central and completely pro-Trump.


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esseff44
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Re: 2016: Polls

#979

Post by esseff44 »

PatGund wrote:Well, I think we have the "Unskewed Polls" site for 2016

https://www.longroom.com/polls/
Who is sponsoring that site? It's a lot like WND or Breitbart. RWNJ propaganda and nothing else.


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Reality Check
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Re: 2016: Polls

#980

Post by Reality Check »

They claimed that using their methodology they would have correctly called the 2012 and 2008 Obama wins. I call BS. They show almost every poll is off by a large margin.


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jmj
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Re: 2016: Polls

#981

Post by jmj »

Just FYI, there's been some discussion of that site already here: viewtopic.php?f=63&t=9017&p=803975#p803967


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Slarti the White
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Re: 2016: Polls

#982

Post by Slarti the White »

Reality Check wrote:They claimed that using their methodology they would have correctly called the 2012 and 2008 Obama wins. I call BS. They show almost every poll is off by a large margin.

As per the previous discussion and as prettily pointed out by Hektor the word "methodology" should be in scare quotes. They can "perfectly" predict the election as early as the day after!

Winning!


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Slarti the White
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Re: 2016: Polls

#983

Post by Slarti the White »

Everyone who looks at 538's model should read this. While there's nothing wrong with this methodology per se, there are an awful lot of assumptions baked into their models.



http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ele ... ifference/


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Re: 2016: Polls

#984

Post by Flatpointhigh »

As someone who suffers from dyscalculia, I really like the discussion on the maths of polling. I may not be able to wrap my head around all of it, but I like it.


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MsDaisy
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Re: 2016: Polls

#985

Post by MsDaisy »

Five Thirty Eight 2016 Election Forecast by state continually updated. Looking pretty good at the moment for a Hillary win by 86.4% nationally. Reddest state in the Union is Oklahoma, (there’s a surprise) at 98.8% Trump. Other top red Trump states in the 90+% range Idaho 96.9, Wyoming 95.1, Louisiana 92.8, Alabama 98.3, and West VA 97.5.

It’s a pretty cool interactive map.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/201 ... id=rrpromo


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esseff44
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Re: 2016: Polls

#986

Post by esseff44 »

Pennsylvania latest poll: Hillary stays up a +10

Wisconsin latest poll: Hillary reaches +15


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jmj
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Re: 2016: Polls

#987

Post by jmj »

PPP has South Carolina at Trump +2 :shock:


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p0rtia
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Re: 2016: Polls

#988

Post by p0rtia »

Flatpointhigh wrote:As someone who suffers from dyscalculia, I really like the discussion on the maths of polling. I may not be able to wrap my head around all of it, but I like it.
Responding to your post because it is so succinct, but this is to all those who enjoy the discussion. I enjoy it too--just not here. It is, IMO, worthy of its own thread. But I for one come here to see the polls, not to read polling theory. It's a totally different head set, y'know?

:bighug:

edited for grammary.


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Slarti the White
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Re: 2016: Polls

#989

Post by Slarti the White »

p0rtia wrote:
Flatpointhigh wrote:As someone who suffers from dyscalculia, I really like the discussion on the maths of polling. I may not be able to wrap my head around all of it, but I like it.
Responding to your post because it is so succinct, but this is to all those who enjoy the discussion. I enjoy it too--just not here. It is, IMO, worthy of its own thread. But I for one come here to see the polls, not to read polling theory. It's a totally different head set, y'know?

:bighug:

edited for grammary.
Respectfully, I disagree. I think that polling and aggregation analysis* is as appropriate (and necessary) here as legal analysis is on any of the myriad threads we have on legal issues. Sorry.

* A much better term than "polling theory", in my opinion.

:bighug:


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listeme
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Re: 2016: Polls

#990

Post by listeme »

The topic is 2016 polls, though.

Sure, some analysis. But I'm going to disagree with you on this, you guys -- this topic is a more specific topic than polling. This is recent polling, polling in the news, et cetera, or at least that is how a lot of us are interpreting the title.

Analysis of methodology is a much more general topic.

It's a granularity problem.


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Slarti the White
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Re: 2016: Polls

#991

Post by Slarti the White »

listeme wrote:The topic is 2016 polls, though.

Sure, some analysis. But I'm going to disagree with you on this, you guys -- this topic is a more specific topic than polling. This is recent polling, polling in the news, et cetera, or at least that is how a lot of us are interpreting the title.

Analysis of methodology is a much more general topic.

It's a granularity problem.
Still respectfully disagree. The methodological discussion is inseparable from the current results and forecasts if there is any attempt to understand what the polls (or the the aggregators) mean. Again I make the analogy to how discussion regarding legal matters works on the Fogbow. Remember, there might be far more lawyers on the Fogbow than mathematicians, but we are way prettier than you*.


* Well, Hektor is, anyway. I'm just an outlier. :towel:


"Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat."
---Sun Tzu (quoting Thomas Jefferson)
nam-myoho-renge-kyo---Thomas Jefferson (quoting Slartibartfast)
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bob
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Re: 2016: Polls

#992

Post by bob »

esseff44 wrote:
PatGund wrote:Well, I think we have the "Unskewed Polls" site for 2016

https://www.longroom.com/polls/
Who is sponsoring that site? It's a lot like WND or Breitbart. RWNJ propaganda and nothing else.
538: Who’s Behind A Mysterious Website Saying Polls Are Skewed Against Trump?:
But LongRoom and whoever runs it has gone out of its way to obfuscate its identity. The site has an “about us” page which lists four people associated with the site, but they each seem to be without any semblance of an online paper trail, an odd thing in the age of the internet.

“Michael Ellis,” the man listed as LongRoom’s managing editor, is described in only the vaguest of terms as “an Internet Executive with over 23 years of experience, including general management of mid to large sized publications. He has been involved with internet community management his entire career.” The three other staff members have similarly indistinct bios, and rather than photographed headshots, the staff is depicted in sketches. None of the staff appears to have Twitter accounts, let alone follow the @LongRoomNews account. Searches for the staff on other social networking sites did not lead anywhere and there is no listed point of contact for any of the LongRoom staff members anywhere on the site. FiveThirtyEight reached out to the site’s only point of contact for comment — a support email address — and did not hear back. A public records search for LongRoom yielded no results for the business. (In addition to its “unbiased” polling operation, the site aggregates news stories.)

But an analysis of the site’s IP address showed that in April 2015, LongRoom switched its registration to a domain that for a fee, allows registrants to keep their names private — Domains By Proxy, LLC. The last name associated with the website, as recently as January 2015, is Fred Waid, who listed the site’s associated organization as “American Separatist” based out of New Mexico. FiveThirtyEight reached out to Waid but had not heard back as of publication.


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Re: 2016: Polls

#993

Post by Flatpointhigh »

that article also happens to be "Fred Waid's" only Internet footprint


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tek
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Re: 2016: Polls

#994

Post by tek »

Sounds like the KGB to me.
It would be irresponsible not to speculate. 8-)


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June bug
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Re: 2016: Polls

#995

Post by June bug »

tek wrote:Sounds like the KGB to me.
It would be irresponsible not to speculate. 8-)
Many people have so speculated.


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Reality Check
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Re: 2016: Polls

#996

Post by Reality Check »

New state polls:

New NBC/WSJ/Marist polls
CO: HRC 46, Trump 32 (+14)
FL: HRC 44, Trump 39 (+5)
NC: HRC 48, Trump 39 (+9)
VA: HRC 46, Trump 33 (+13)

Aug 4-10


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Reality Check
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Re: 2016: Polls

#997

Post by Reality Check »

Congratulations to our Soup Ream Dick Tater on NC. Great job!


"“If you’re not outraged, you’re not paying attention.”

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BrianH
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Re: 2016: Polls

#998

Post by BrianH »

Reality Check wrote:New state polls:

New NBC/WSJ/Marist polls
CO: HRC 46, Trump 32 (+14)
FL: HRC 44, Trump 39 (+5)
NC: HRC 48, Trump 39 (+9)
VA: HRC 46, Trump 33 (+13)

Aug 4-10
Good numbers. :thumbs:

MSNBC noted that in NC Dem. challenger Deborah Ross leads Burr and Gov. McCrory is trailing Dem. challenger.


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Sterngard Friegen
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Re: 2016: Polls

#999

Post by Sterngard Friegen »

PEC meta-margin for Mrs. Clinton is now +5.0%.

:swoon:


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Slarti the White
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Re: 2016: Polls

#1000

Post by Slarti the White »

I got ninja'd by :sterngard: on the meta-margin! :swoon:

I'm so proud! :lovestruck:
:towel: :geezertowel: :happydance:


"Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat."
---Sun Tzu (quoting Thomas Jefferson)
nam-myoho-renge-kyo---Thomas Jefferson (quoting Slartibartfast)
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