2016: Polls

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2016: Polls

#1

Post by Addie » Thu Nov 20, 2014 8:46 am

WSJ/NBC Nov. 14-17









Americans of All Stripes Agree: The System Is Stacked Against Them ...



Most striking is how widely shared this sense of alienation now is.



Among those saying the system is stacked against them are 58% of Democrats; 51% of Republicans; 55% of whites; 60% of blacks; 53% of Hispanics; as well as decent majorities of every age and professional cluster, including blue-collar workers, white-collar workers and retirees.



So who are the rare outliers who feel more in synch with the system? Not surprisingly, those who are well off and well educated. Among those with post-graduate degrees, just 38% say they feel the system is stacked against them. Among those who earn more than $75,000 a year, 44% feel that way. ...



Who among the potential 2016 candidates does this contingent like? No one, all that much. Among a dozen national figures considered possible contenders, just three enjoy a net positive image in the eyes of this bloc: Republican Sen. Rand Paul, Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.



And among those, who has the biggest spread in positive goodwill? Perhaps not surprisingly, populist firebrand Ms. Warren.




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#2

Post by Addie » Wed Nov 26, 2014 11:35 am

Reuters









Romney tops Republican poll for '16; ahead of Clinton in election



(Reuters) - Mitt Romney, the Republican Party's unsuccessful presidential nominee in 2012, leads the field for the 2016 election among Republican voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released on Wednesday.



The former Massachusetts governor would have a slight edge over potential Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton by 45 percent to 44 percent in a general election, the poll found.



Among possible Republican candidates, Romney's 19 percent put him ahead of former Florida governor Jeb Bush with 11 percent, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and Ben Carson each with 8 percent each, and U.S. Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky with 6 percent. ...



With Romney out of the picture, Bush polled 14 percent with Christie at 11 percent and Carson at 9 percent.



Clinton, the former secretary of state, dominated the field for Democratic voters in the poll with 57 percent, followed by U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts with 13 percent and Vice President Joe Biden with 9 percent.






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#3

Post by Adrianinflorida » Wed Nov 26, 2014 12:13 pm

Cruz - Palin 2016!

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#4

Post by Highlands » Wed Nov 26, 2014 1:46 pm



Cruz - Palin 2016!



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#5

Post by Orlylicious » Sat Nov 29, 2014 10:10 pm

11/29 MSNBC on Up... It's a fiesta of choices! Unfortunately for Jeb, even with Willard taken out he has no commanding lead (Christie moves up).




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#6

Post by Addie » Mon Dec 08, 2014 12:41 pm

Bloomberg













Clinton Trumps Republican Rivals on Leadership, Vision for 2016



Former first lady, senator, and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton would enter the presidential race with positive views of her past experience and personal traits, making her a formidable contender against lesser-known Republican rivals.



Greater numbers of Americans view her as a strong leader, who has a better vision for the future, shares their values, and empathizes with their concerns, according to a new Bloomberg Politics Poll. Among the Republicans tested against her, former Republican nominee Mitt Romney has the best name recognition and strengths to challenge her standing as this early stage in the 2016 race. Romney, however, has repeatedly said he won't campaign for the presidency for a third time. ...



While Clinton lacks Obama’s overwhelming empathy advantage, she's better positioned two years before the election in every other attribute. When respondents were asked which potential candidate did a better job on each of four qualities, she runs seven to 20 points ahead on leadership when pitted against former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, and Romney. Though Clinton has yet to provide a detailed account of how she'd guide the nation as president, Americans think she has more of a vision for the future than any in the Republican field. When measured on that attribute, she leads Romney by 6 points, Paul by 10 points, Bush by 15 points, Christie by 17 points, and Cruz by 21 points. ...



More than half–52 percent–of Americans have a favorable view of Clinton, a drop from a high of 70 percent in December 2012, less than two months before she left her post as Secretary of State and re-entered the national, partisan political dialogue. That diplomatic background, considered by some Republicans to be a point of weakness, is seen as beneficial by a majority of Americans. More than two out of three view her tenure as Secretary of State, marriage to former President Bill Clinton, and, perhaps as an indication that Americans want an experienced insider in the next president, her service in Washington, as advantageous to Clinton. About six in ten say the same about her previous presidential run and work in the Obama administration. "People get all critical about, ‘oh, so and so‘s a career politician',” said Barbara Rishaw, a deli clerk and self-identified “disillusioned independent” in Nashville, Tenn. “On the other hand, wouldn’t you want to hire someone for a job when they actually have some experience?”






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#7

Post by Addie » Mon Jan 19, 2015 9:15 am

CBS News











Who would Americans like to see on the campaign trail in 2016? ...





Eighty-five percent of Democrats would like Clinton to dive in, while 11 percent want her to stay out.



Her closest competitor, Vice President Joe Biden, is sought by only 40 percent of Democrats. Thirty-eight percent want Biden to stay on the sidelines.



Twenty-three percent say Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a darling of liberal activists, should launch a bid, but 20 percent disagree.



Beyond those three, Democrats' excitement about their potential field is lacking. Only 16 percent want New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo to run, while 18 percent disagree. Twelve percent would like to see Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, an independent who caucuses with Democrats, to run, while 16 percent want Sanders to keep his day job. Three percent want former Gov. Martin O'Malley, D-Maryland, to run, but 13 percent don't. And 6 percent of voters want former Sen. Jim Webb, D-Virginia, to run, but 14 percent disagree.









_________________________________________

The poll, which was conducted by telephone January 9-12, surveyed 1,001 adults nationwide. The margin of error for numbers drawn from the full sample is plus or minus 3 percent, while the margin of error for results compiled from only Republicans or Democrats is plus or minus 6 percent.
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#8

Post by SueDB » Mon Jan 19, 2015 9:28 am

Just swear Hillary in already....
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#9

Post by wavey davey » Mon Jan 19, 2015 9:58 am

I'd be alright with that. :)

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#10

Post by Addie » Thu Jan 22, 2015 9:11 am

ABC News/Washington Post Jan. 12-15, 2015













History’s a Positive for Clinton; Not So for Bush or Romney



Hillary Clinton’s “potential place in history and her husband’s tenure in the White House boost her presidential prospects, while Jeb Bush’s political legacy and Mitt Romney’s 2012 run for the office are negatives,” a new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds.

“Clinton leads both in hypothetical head-to-head matchups at this early stage – as well as Rand Paul, Chris Christie and Mike Huckabee alike. The national survey finds 53 to 56 percent support for Clinton among registered voters against each of these potential Republican candidates, while they get 39 to 41 percent. One reason is that Clinton is stronger in her political base, given the far more fragmented nature of the current GOP field.”

As with Barack Obama, the recovery helps Clinton. About three-quarters of registered voters who rate the economy positively support her, and she leads overwhelmingly among those who say they’ve gained ground financially under Obama’s presidency. But she also leads, by 16 to 20 points, among those whose finances have just held steady.

Clinton has a strong advantage among those who see income inequality as a major problem, and she runs essentially evenly vs. these potential Republican nominees among those who think it’s a problem, but not a major one. She trails only among those who don’t think the income gap is a problem – just 16 percent of registered voters.

Women favor Clinton by 20- to 24-point margins, men by non-significant 2- to 7-point margins. She’s also strong among racial and ethnic minorities, adults under 40 and lower-income voters.











METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Jan. 12-15, 2015, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,003 adults, including 843 registered voters. Results have margins of sampling error of 3.5 and 4 points for the general population and registered voters, respectively, including design effect. Partisan divisions are 30-24-37 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents among the general population, 33-26-33 percent among registered voters.
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#11

Post by gupwalla » Thu Jan 22, 2015 10:30 am

A lead of 2-7 points among men might be statistically insignificant along gender lines, but it is huge for a Democratic candidate in a general election matchup.
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#12

Post by Addie » Wed Feb 11, 2015 6:06 pm

USA Today











Draft-Warren group says she has support in early states



The progressive alliance working to draft Democrat Elizabeth Warren into the 2016 presidential race says 79% of early-state Democratic voters want her to run, though they don’t yet know if they would vote for her over potential candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton.



A poll of 800 likely Democratic caucusgoers and primary voters in Iowa and New Hampshire shows they like Warren’s economic positions: 97% agree with Warren’s desire to cut student loan rates, 84% agree with her objections to the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact, and 77% agree with her opposition to the Keystone pipeline.



The online survey by YouGov was sponsored by MoveOn.org and Democracy for America, which have staff and offices in Iowa and New Hampshire working to build support for a Warren candidacy. Its margin of error is 6.7% in Iowa and 6.3% in New Hampshire.



Voters in Iowa favor Warren over Clinton 31% to 24%, although 35% of likely caucusgoers say they are still unsure. In New Hampshire, where Clinton won the Democratic primary in 2008 against Barack Obama, Warren leads Clinton by a smaller margin, 30%-27%, and 31% are unsure.






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#13

Post by SueDB » Wed Feb 11, 2015 7:05 pm

The only trouble with Ms. Warren is ... I asked my wife about her the other day and her response was "Senator who???"



She is not a big name outside the rubber room of the East Coast.
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#14

Post by Addie » Wed Feb 25, 2015 1:17 pm

Public Policy Polling











Clinton leads General, Primary







PPP's newest national poll finds Hillary Clinton leading all of her potential Republican candidates by between 7 and 10 points. She has 7 point advantages over Rand Paul (47/40), and Rick Perry and Marco Rubio (48/41). She has 8 point advantages over Ben Carson, Chris Christie, and Scott Walker all at 48/40. Her advantage over Mike Huckabee is 9 points at 50/41, and she's up 10 points each over Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz at 50/40.



What's really striking about Clinton's numbers against the Republicans is how steady they are no matter who she's pitted against. Clinton is between 47-50% against all 9 of the GOP hopefuls, and each of the GOP hopefuls is polling at either 40 or 41%. This is quite different from 2012 when Mitt Romney tended to be a good deal stronger against Barack Obama than all of the other GOP contenders. ...





The key to Clinton's early leads over the Republican field is that in addition to having the Democratic base strongly unified behind her, she's also getting a substantial amount of support from GOP voters. Anywhere from 15 to 20% of Republicans say they'd vote for Clinton in match ups with everyone except Rand Paul right now, against whom she gets 12% of the Republican vote. She only loses 9-10% of the Democratic vote in every match up except the one against Christie, who gets 12%. There are more Democrats than Republicans in the country to begin with, and when you combine that with having a more unified party it gives Clinton her solid early leads. Whether Clinton will be able to hold on to that Republican support once the party gets behind a candidate remains to be seen but she has it for now.



Clinton also remains dominant in the Democratic primary field. 54% of the party's voters want her to be their candidate to 16% for Joe Biden, 12% for Elizabeth Warren, 5% for Bernie Sanders, 2% for Jim Webb, and 1% for Martin O'Malley. If Biden and Warren don't end up making the race Sanders appears to have a little bit of separation from the bottom tier that could make him Clinton's leading rival.



Clinton has more than 50% support for the Democratic nomination with liberals, moderates, women, whites, Hispanics, African Americans, younger voters, and seniors. The only 2 demographic groups we track where she falls a little bit short of that mark are men and middle aged voters.






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#15

Post by Addie » Sat Mar 07, 2015 10:43 am

McClatchy









Clinton loses ground against GOP in hypothetical 2016 matchups



Hillary Clinton’s troubles are costing her politically, as potential Republican presidential rivals have inched closer to her in 2016 matchups, a new McClatchy-Marist poll found Friday.

The former secretary of state fell below the crucial 50 percent level of support in one-on-one matchups against Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and Scott Walker, and she was barely above that benchmark against Rand Paul, Rick Perry and Ted Cruz.

None have formally declared themselves candidates yet. ...

Clinton led Walker, who’s vaulted into the top tier of possible Republican contenders in recent weeks, by 48 to 44 percent. While Clinton won among moderates and liberals, Walker had a 70-26 percent advantage with conservatives. ...

Experts consider a drop below 50 percent a danger sign for well-known candidates. It suggests that more than half the electorate has judged them and is looking elsewhere. While the Republican candidates aren’t well known, and it’s very early in the nominating process, there appears to be an opening for a credible challenge to Clinton.






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#16

Post by Addie » Tue Mar 10, 2015 9:27 am

The Hill











Voters see Hillary and Jeb as old hat



A majority of voters see 2016 frontrunners Hillary Clinton (D) and former Fla. Gov. Jeb Bush (R) as a “return to the policies of the past,” according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll that shows the potential perils for each party’s biggest names.



Fifty one percent of registered voters view Clinton’s policies as retreads of the past, but she’s viewed much more favorably with Democrats. Only twenty three percent hold that view, and 73 percent believe she’ll provide “new ideas for the future.”



Bush’s numbers aren’t as strong. Sixty percent of registered voters, and 42 percent of Republicans, see his policies as leaning backwards. ...



The poll also showed largely positive perceptions of Gov. Scott Walker (R-Wis.) and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.). Fifty three percent of voters said they could back Walker, compared to only 17 percent that said they could not. Fifty six percent said they could support Rubio, while 26 percent could not.



Those two candidates sported the largest margins of potential support. Bush had only seven percentage points between those who said they could support him and those who couldn’t. Donald Trump, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Gov. Chris Christie (R-N.J.) all had significantly more voters say they could not back them.



Clinton fared much better with Democrats, as 86 percent said they could see themselves voting for her, leaps and bounds ahead of the potential support for Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Vice President Joe Biden. And more than half of those Democratic voters said they don’t care whether Clinton receives a coronation or a contested primary.






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#17

Post by Addie » Tue Mar 10, 2015 8:57 pm

Public Policy Polling













Clinton leads Walker in Wisconsin



PPP's newest Wisconsin poll finds that Scott Walker's recent actions have significantly increased enthusiasm among Republicans in the state for his White House bid- but also left him well behind Hillary Clinton in a potential general election match up. ...

Walker's approval numbers have also significantly dipped over the last few months though. Right before the election last fall we found him with a 49/47 approval spread. That's now dropped to 43/52. His numbers with both Democrats and Republicans are pretty much where they were four months ago. But he's seen a large decline with independents- where he was on narrowly positive ground with them before the election at a 48/45 spread, he's now dropped down to 36/57. The new right to work law is likely part of what's causing Walker problems- only 42% of voters support it, pretty much mirroring his approval rating.

Walker trails Hillary Clinton 52/43 in a hypothetical contest. When we tested the same match up in September of 2013, he was only down 49/44. It's not just Clinton that Walker trails though- he would also be down 48/45 when matched against Joe Biden or Elizabeth Warren. For the most part this year we've been finding Biden and Warren trailing even in places where Clinton's leading, but against Walker in Wisconsin they all have an advantage. ...

Clinton is strong against the entire Republican field in Wisconsin. There's not much evidence from anything in this poll that she's facing any real backlash over the controversy related to her e-mails. The GOP hopeful who comes closest to Clinton in the state is Rand Paul who's still 6 points behind at 48/42. Mike Huckabee trails by 7 at 47/40, Rick Perry and Marco Rubio lag by 8 at 48/40, Chris Christie joins Walker in being down by 9 at 48/39, Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz have a 10 point deficit at 49/39, and Ben Carson's 11 point gap is the greatest at 49/38.






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#18

Post by Addie » Thu Apr 09, 2015 9:15 am

Quinnipiac









April 9, 2015 - Paul Blooms As Clinton Wilts In Colorado, Iowa, Virginia, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds





COLORADO: Paul 44 - Clinton 41

IOWA: Paul 43 - Clinton 42

VIRGINIA: Clinton 47 - Paul 43

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's lead is wilting against leading Republican presidential candidates in three critical swing states, Colorado, Iowa and Virginia, and she finds herself in a close race with U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky in each state, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today. In head-to-head matchups, every Republican candidate effectively ties her in Colorado and almost all Republicans effectively tie her in Iowa.



Secretary Clinton has lost ground in almost every matchup in Colorado and Iowa since a February 18 Swing State Poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. The Swing State Poll focuses on key states in the presidential election.



One bright spot for Clinton is Virginia, the largest of the three states, where she leads all Republicans, including 47 - 40 percent over Bush, compared to a 42 - 42 percent tie in February. ...



"Ominous for Hillary Clinton is the broad scope of the movement today compared to her showing in Quinnipiac University's mid-February survey. It isn't just one or two Republicans who are stepping up; it's virtually the entire GOP field that is running better against her.




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#19

Post by Addie » Tue May 05, 2015 4:42 pm

National Journal













Poll: Obama More Popular Than Any of the Top 2016 Candidates





As American voters prepare to move on from President Obama in next year's election, a new poll suggests they actually like him better right now than any of his most likely replacements.

In the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal survey, pollsters asked whether people felt positively or negatively toward Obama and six candidates or potential candidates to replace him: Republicans Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, and Scott Walker, plus Democrat Hillary Clinton. While 47 percent of adults said they viewed Obama positively compared with 40 percent who view him negatively, none of the 2016 candidates scored better than even.

Clinton broke even in the poll, with 42 percent viewing her positively and 42 percent viewing her negatively. And each of the Republican candidates—who also comprise the top-five most likely GOP nominees in Hotline's latest Presidential Power Rankings—had at least as many people viewing them negatively as positively.

That's not all great news for Clinton. The former secretary of State, who announced her candidacy for president on April 12, suffered a notable uptick in unfavorable views of her since NBC and The Wall Street Journal last tested people's opinions about her in March. At that point, 44 percent of Americans viewed Clinton positively and 36 percent viewed her negatively.

The Republican candidates are less-known and potentially have room to grow. More than half of people expressed no opinion about Rubio (22 percent positive, 23 percent negative) and Walker (15 percent positive, 17 percent negative), for example. At this point, 23 percent of people view Paul and Bush favorably, but 28 percent and 36 percent, respectively, have negative views of them. And Cruz had the widest spread between his positive ratings (17 percent) and negative ones (32 percent).






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#20

Post by Addie » Wed May 06, 2015 2:59 pm

HuffPo











More Americans Are Comfortable With A Gay Presidential Candidate Than With An Evangelical One





More Americans feel comfortable with a presidential candidate who identifies as gay or lesbian than with one who identifies as an evangelical Christian, according to a new poll.



The latest WSJ/NBC poll listed a series of qualities in a potential presidential candidate and asked respondents whether they'd "be enthusiastic," "be comfortable with," "have some reservations about" or "be very uncomfortable with" a candidate with each of those qualities.



The results revealed that Americans are actually quite open to having a gay presidential candidate. Sixty-one percent said they would be either enthusiastic about or comfortable with a gay or lesbian candidate, while only 37 percent said they would have reservations or be uncomfortable.



By comparison, respondents were a little less comfortable with the prospect of a candidate who is an evangelical Christian. Fifty-two percent said they'd be enthusiastic about or comfortable with an evangelical Christian running for president, while 44 percent expressed some degree of hesitancy about the idea. (Two percent of respondents said they were not sure about a gay or lesbian candidate, while four percent were not sure about an evangelical.) ...



Other qualities that made more respondents uncomfortable than comfortable included not having a college degree, being a leader in the tea party, and lacking previous elected experience.






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#21

Post by Whatever4 » Wed May 06, 2015 4:03 pm

They say that, then they don't $&@%ing vote!
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#22

Post by Suranis » Thu May 07, 2015 6:59 am





They say that, then they don't $&@%ing vote!







This. Ted Cruz was elected in an election where 28% of the electorate bothered their ass to came out and vote. If I was over there I'd be trying to just get people to the polling office rather than sit on their fat behinds and bitch.
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#23

Post by Addie » Mon Jun 01, 2015 10:44 am



Bloomberghttp://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/201 ... r-pollIowa Democrats Stick With Hillary Clinton in Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Poll Hillary Clinton remains the overwhelming favorite among Iowa Democrats looking ahead to next year's presidential caucuses, though Bernie Sanders has quickly risen as Elizabeth Warren's proxy for the anti-establishment alternative.Clinton is the first choice for 57 percent of likely Democratic caucus-goers in a new Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll conducted May 25-29, up a percentage point from the previous poll in January. Controversies dating from her tenure as secretary of state, from her handling of the Benghazi attacks and her use of private e-mail to the Clinton Foundation's acceptance of contributions from foreign governments, have not weakened her campaign in Iowa, though many Democrats remain concerned they could hurt her in a general election.Clinton's favorability rating among likely Democratic caucus-goers is actually two points higher now, at 86 percent, than in January. Her unfavorable rating is down three points, to 12 percent. Sanders's favorability got a boost to 47 percent from 37 percent, while 41 percent still say they don't know how they feel about him.“The reality is, this is a field where nobody has effectively stepped up to challenge Hillary Clinton, full stop,” said J. Ann Selzer, president of West Des Moines-based Selzer & Co., which conducted the poll 
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#24

Post by Addie » Mon Jun 01, 2015 8:23 pm



Politicsusa A Tidal Wave Of Good News In Iowa: Hillary Clinton Soaring and Obama Beloved by Democrats There’s nothing but good news in a new Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll conducted May 25-29 of likely Democratic caucus-goers.Starting off with asking likely Democratic caucus-goers to rate their feelings from very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable about prominent Democrats, President Obama topped the list of 89% favorable to 9% unfavorable.Not to be totally cruel, but Democrats really messed up when they avoided standing with their President in 2014 (and I said it then, too before it was cool). POTUS is beloved by the Democratic base.But obviously he is not running for office again, so let’s dig into what the future looks like right now. Here’s how 2016 looks: Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton rated 86% favorable to just 12% unfavorable and Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) 47% favorable to 12% unfavorable. 
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#25

Post by Addie » Sun Jul 05, 2015 7:57 am



WaPohttp://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/lost-gr ... story.html Voters are shifting to Democrats, flashing a warning for Republicans The Gallup organization reported its latest findings on party identification late last week, and the report contained good news for the Democrats and a flashing yellow for Republicans.The Democrats “have regained an advantage” over the GOP in party affiliation, Gallup’s Jeffrey M. Jones wrote in an accompanying analysis. Republicans, he added, “have seemingly lost the momentum they had going into last fall’s elections.”The current numbers don’t mean Republicans can’t win the White House in 2016. The Democrats’ advantage is not as large as at other points in the past, for example. But the findings add to a series of data points that underscore the challenges ahead for a party trying to keep pace with a rapidly changing country.The latest numbers essentially mark a reset that returns party affiliation to its modern historical norm. Democrats long have enjoyed the advantage over Republicans in Gallup’s measures.
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