Afghanistan

[AndyinPA]

Afghanistan will not be an issue in the 202w and 2024 elections. I didn't recall the fall of Saigon as an issue in the 1976 election.

When Saigon fell, we didn't have faux noise, OAN, etc.

[raison de arizona]

Video:

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[neeneko]

When Saigon fell, we didn't have faux noise, OAN, etc.

Yeah. Increasingly outrage is becoming hard to predict since it pretty much comes down to whatever right wing thought leaders decide it will be.

[AndyinPA]

https://www.businessinsider.com/uk-defe ... sis-2021-8

But UK Defence Minister Ben Wallace has pointed the finger at Trump.

He told "BBC Breakfast" on Monday: "The die was cast when the deal was done by Donald Trump, if you want my observation."

"President Biden inherited a momentum, a momentum that had been given to the Taliban because they felt they had now won, he'd also inherited a momentum of troop withdrawal from the international community, the US."

"So I think in that sense, the seeds of what we're seeing today were before President Biden took office. The seeds were a peace deal that was [effectively] rushed, that wasn't done in collaboration properly with the international community and then a dividend taken out incredibly quickly."

[p0rtia]

[filly]

Right! Which is why you move people out before the military leaves!

[Suranis]

Not that simple because the people you are moving out are the people who have to handle the logistics of people moving out so if they are not there the army moving out is kinda chaotic.

Its really easy to fat nerd quarterback all this, but when you are trying to get people out of a situation its not that easy. And, once again, last week US Intel was talking a 90 day window before the Taliban took Kabul.

https://www.trtworld.com/asia/us-intel- ... days-49120

[Slim Cognito]

When Saigon fell, we didn't have faux noise, OAN, etc.

Yeah. Increasingly outrage is becoming hard to predict since it pretty much comes down to whatever right wing thought leaders decide it will be.

It's true we didn't have the crazy RWNJ media we have now, but aren't they preaching to the choir? Aren't the lines already drawn?

[raison de arizona]

I don't know enough to fat nerd quarterback this, but I do know enough to know it is not going well and could have gone better. Whether that's a failure of intelligence regarding how long it would the Taliban to take over or what, I'll leave that to someone else. But I can't help but think this isn't the best the withdrawal could have gone.

[neeneko]

It's true we didn't have the crazy RWNJ media we have now, but aren't they preaching to the choir? Aren't the lines already drawn?

I think the lines matter less and less now. The right doesn't seem to really care about consistency or history, only the current moral outrage and the position of people they do not like. The lines are drawn along lines of loyalty and community, not issues.

[neeneko]

I don't know enough to fat nerd quarterback this, but I do know enough to know it is not going well and could have gone better. Whether that's a failure of intelligence regarding how long it would the Taliban to take over or what, I'll leave that to someone else. But I can't help but think this isn't the best the withdrawal could have gone.

From the bits and pieces that have come out, to me is really sounds like there was a range of bad options each with a fuzzy probability of going really badly. There was probably a best option, but only an agent with perfect knowledge could have chosen it.

[Suranis]

Forbes, just four days ago.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityar ... nce-warns/

Kabul could come under pressure from the Taliban in just 30 days and could fall to the group within 90-days, Reuters reported, citing an unnamed U.S. intelligence official.

(deleted comment because too snarky)

[Volkonski]

[busterbunker]

Why they call us the United States, I'll never know. The country couldn't order a sandwich without breaking into civil war. And we're supposed to be the model as the leader of the free world?

[Volkonski]

[Dave from down under]

Jim Wright wrote -
https://www.stonekettle.com/2021/08/bit ... g6LUWI&m=1

[MN-Skeptic]

Jim Wright wrote -
https://www.stonekettle.com/2021/08/bit ... g6LUWI&m=1

Well worth reading.

[AndyinPA]

Opinion: Margaret Sullivan.

I've been watching just about anything but the news today.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyl ... story.html

If ever a big, breaking story demanded that the news media provide historical context and carefully avoid partisan blame, it’s the story of the fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban.

Instead, what we largely got over the past few days was the all-too-familiar genre of “winners and losers” coverage. It’s coverage that tends to elevate and amplify punditry over news, and to assign long-lasting political ramifications to a still-developing situation.

And when news consumers have been tuned out of a story — as they are, unfortunately, with most international coverage — this quick-take journalism can be damaging and misleading.

Evidence of this nuance-deprived, overstated coverage was obvious throughout big and small news organizations over the weekend and across the political spectrum.

[filly]

Looks like a well planned exit.

[Kendra]

Jim Wright wrote -
https://www.stonekettle.com/2021/08/bit ... g6LUWI&m=1

Well worth reading.

Yes.

[raison de arizona]

[MN-Skeptic]

A long threaded tweet on the history of Afghanistan and the Taliban. I highly recommend it!

[Dave from down under]

Bloody politicians that dragged their feet on doing what was right....

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-17/ ... /100383784

The Prime Minister has conceded the Australian government will not be able to help all Afghans who worked with and supported Australian troops, in the wake of the Taliban's return to power.

Key points:
Scott Morrison says support from Australian officials will not reach everyone it should
There were calls before the Taliban took control to fast-track visas for Afghans who worked with the ADF
Afghans in Australia and overseas are begging the federal government to increase its humanitarian intake

[Luke]

We're foreign policy wonks. During the Reagan administration, as a young guy, had a role in the United States Information Service (USIA) under Charlie Wick. We were part of the teardown of the Soviet Union (I actually have photos together with Gorbachev in Moscow and saw him just a few years ago again.) To wit from Mickey G:






We HATED that America was going into Afghanistan and Iraq. We protested in the streets of Manhattan repeatedly because the war buildup was in slow-motion; it took months to get it set up and we were disgusted. The 9/11 criminals were Saudis, but Bush/Cheney let them fly out on private jets. The Soviets showed in the '80s that fighting in Afghanistan was going to be futile. 20 years later and $830 billion later (the most recent figure we found from the GAO), no matter when this ended this would be the result. Let's see how the Taliban, 20 years later, reacts to their challenge/opportunity.*

DEBKAFile, reportedly Israeli intelligence but hit or miss, looks at Middle East ramifications, which is where most of this belongs:

From the broader perspective, Iran, which claims leadership of the Muslim Shiah world, a Taliban victory in Kabul would represent the return of a hateful menace to its back door. Their common a 950-km long border, running through forbidding, rugged terrain, can’t be impenetrably sealed and has long enabled Taliban to smuggle to the West 85pc of the world’s opium and heroin from crops grown in Afghanistan, as well as offering the Afghan terrorists a major illicit conduit to Europe.

This border also offers an escape route for Afghan’s minority groups, such as Tajiks and Hazaras, in flight from persecution. Around a million of these ethnic Afghans have taken refuge in Iran, adding a heavy burden to Tehran’s already shaky economy.

The opportunistic Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is closely watching the battle for Kabul, ready to whip out a proposition for a winning Taliban to let a mixed Turkish-Pakistani unit take control of the big international Bagram airfield outside Kabul. Turkish defense minister Hulusi Akar visited Islamabad on Wednesday, August 11, to sell the idea to Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan. Erdogan would be following up on the Turkish troop presence he has already wangled in the flashpoint areas of Libya and Syria as well gaining as a military base in Qatar. A Turkish base in Afghanistan, boosting a resurrected Taliban administration that plays host to a resurgent ISIS and Al Qaeda, would spell the rise of an anti-Israel axis pitted strongly against the Abraham Accords bloc.

https://www.debka.com/with-taliban-at-t ... -comeback/

Here are a few tweets about the setup. The execution will be studied for a long time and any allies and staff America didn't fully take care of safely will be a terrible loss. But the mission ended a decade ago and they are not a US state, we have more than enough domestic issues to get under control. The Bush Cheney NeoCon movement put America in horrible positions for decades. As disappointed as we are with the optics and seeming error in concluding, at the end of the day we're happy America is letting the Afghans choose their own destiny. We and other nations can be more effective helping the Afghans rebuild and join the community of nations (their statements include being proud to be in the UN). Rather than the Chicken Little revisionist Trumpers and NeoCons, we're content to wait a few months to see how their self-destiny works out.

A few tweets about this.
















Just a few thoughts because a) a lot of this is coming through partisan political bias lenses, b) many reporting this are too young to remember what actually happened, and c) it's too early to see the geo-political changes this throwing the cards in the air will result in. Agree there were errors in execution, but just like Cheney's stupid "they'll be throwing flowers at our feet" line, there was never going to be a "good time" to end this.

* ETA: Here they go already:

World news LIVE
Taliban declares ‘general amnesty’ for government officials and urged them to return to work

[RTH10260]

Afghanistan Aug 16 2021 Airport.jpg (87.7 KiB) Viewed 773 times

I don't think it works like trains in India and Pakistan