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SCOTUS v. Darth Donnius - or - all your docs belong to us
Posted: Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:09 am
by Chilidog
OK. ASSUMING.
1) Trump appeals the 11th Cir. Stay to SCOTUS.
How do you think each Justice will vote?
Check off if you thing they will uphold the stay and deny Trump's appeal.
Leave blank if you are not sure. Revoting allowed.
Re: SCOTUS v. Darth Donnius - or - all your docs belong to us
Posted: Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:25 am
by Foggy
I suspect we will never know, EXCEPT that Clarence Thomas is the Justice assigned to the 11th Circuit, so that might be a wildcard, but I don't know what he can do all by himself.
Whatever Trump’s lawyers file, it can't come as a petition for certiorari, it's way too early for that. It will have to be some sorta emergency motion to stay the stay (?)
I do know one thing - this case is WAY more dangerous for Trump than the civil fraud case in New York.
Re: SCOTUS v. Darth Donnius - or - all your docs belong to us
Posted: Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:28 am
by Chilidog
Thomas and Alito will vote to strike down the stay.
Kavanaugh and Roberts - I'm more than 50% sure they will deny.
Gorsuch - I'm less than 50% so he goes in the afirm column.
Barret, frankly I have no idea.
Re: SCOTUS v. Darth Donnius - or - all your docs belong to us
Posted: Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:35 am
by Maybenaut
Foggy wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:25 am
I suspect we will never know, EXCEPT that Clarence Thomas is the Justice assigned to the 11th Circuit, so that might be a wildcard, but I don't know what he can do all by himself.
Whatever Trump’s lawyers file, it can't come as a petition for certiorari, it's way too early for that. It will have to be some sorta emergency motion to stay the stay (?)
I do know one thing - this case is WAY more dangerous for Trump than the civil fraud case in New York.
The only way we
will know is if there are enough votes to grant the motion, then we’ll find out who dissents and says the motion was improvidently granted.
As to Thomas, I think he might be worrying about his legacy these days. His wife is a whackadoodle, and he might already be worrying about being painted with the same broad brush. He’s very, very, very conservative, but I never thought he was crazy or stupid (unlike some on both ends of the spectrum, I don’t ascribe those characterizations to people who disagree with me). If he goes along with Trump on this, this craziness is what he’s likely to be remembered for, and I really doubt that’s what he wants.
Mayhaps I’m being too charitable, but there it is.
Re: SCOTUS v. Darth Donnius - or - all your docs belong to us
Posted: Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:40 am
by Foggy
I agree, I just think he might be a wildcard. But only possibly.
Re: SCOTUS v. Darth Donnius - or - all your docs belong to us
Posted: Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:45 am
by Phoenix520
I don’t think Thomas is crazy or stupid but he may hold a very long grudge.
Re: SCOTUS v. Darth Donnius - or - all your docs belong to us
Posted: Thu Sep 22, 2022 12:10 pm
by AndyinPA
Phoenix520 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 11:45 am
I don’t think Thomas is crazy or stupid but he may hold a very long grudge.
I think I read recently that he keeps a list of enemies in a desk drawer, so, yeah, I'd say he holds very long grudges.
Re: SCOTUS v. Darth Donnius - or - all your docs belong to us
Posted: Thu Sep 22, 2022 1:41 pm
by June bug
According to discussion in the Trump’s docs thread, Cannon may have mooted any Supreme Court appeal on the docs marked classified by striking those parts from her order.
Re: SCOTUS v. Darth Donnius - or - all your docs belong to us
Posted: Thu Sep 22, 2022 3:20 pm
by Foggy
The lawyers here and on Twitter seem to think so, but never underestimate the stupidity of Trump and his attorneys, they might try anyway.
"Judge Cannon wouldn't have changed her order if the 11th Circuit hadn't stayed it last night, so we should still be able to appeal!"
Re: SCOTUS v. Darth Donnius - or - all your docs belong to us
Posted: Thu Sep 22, 2022 3:40 pm
by Maybenaut
Foggy wrote: ↑Thu Sep 22, 2022 3:20 pm
The lawyers here and on Twitter seem to think so, but never underestimate the stupidity of Trump and his attorneys, they might try anyway.
"Judge Cannon wouldn't have changed her order if the 11th Circuit hadn't stayed it last night, so we should still be able to appeal!"
Off Topic
Something similar happens in my practice periodically. Defense makes a motion; judge explains why he’s inclined to rule against it, then says, “Defense, I’ll give you the opportunity to withdraw your motion.” Defense then goes into mental spastics (OMYGOD! Did I just make a frivolous motion?! OMYGODOMYGODOMYGOD!!) Then says, “Yes, Your Honor, the defense withdraws the motion.” Client gets convicted.
Then I get the case. Client wants to raise the issue. Sorry, I say, it’s waived. The defense withdrew the motion and the Court never ruled on it. And I can’t win an ineffective assistance claim so long as the judge’s explanation of why he was going to deny the motion, even if he was wrong, was not of the tin-foil hat variety.
And it REALLY pisses me off when judges do this because then they don’t have to expose their bullshit rulings to appellate review. And it pisses me off when defense counsel fall for it, rather than saying, “No, Your Honor, the defense requests that you rule on our motion.”