Theranos- medical lab testing

User avatar
kate520
Posts: 15706
Joined: Mon Oct 26, 2009 3:02 pm
Location: Dark side of the Moon
Occupation: servant of cats, chicken wrangler
Contact:

Re: Theranos- medical lab testing

#76

Post by kate520 » Mon Aug 06, 2018 9:16 pm

Ah, so you* admit using Elon as a guinea pig as part of your nefarious plan! :mrgreen:





* the Royal you


DEFEND DEMOCRACY

User avatar
Gregg
Posts: 3212
Joined: Mon Oct 27, 2014 6:09 am
Location: Cincinnati, OH USA
Occupation: We build cars

Re: Theranos- medical lab testing

#77

Post by Gregg » Mon Aug 06, 2018 9:52 pm

1) Maybe we should split this off into a Tesla thread, cause y'all pulled me into this and once I get started...well.


2) Yes, Elon is perhaps developing the future technology of the auto industry. And then again, maybe he's not. What he has now isn't good enough to replace the ICE infrastructure but it is the best available. The problem is, what if Sumitomo or someone else comes out next week with what is the solution? Since Elon works with no one, and wants to be the big star, if he loses he will have blown a few billion dollars on the best damn buggy whips the world has ever seen. Ford, GM, Toyota, etc... are not going to sink the vast amount of capital into betting we can come up with the end all solution because losing that bet is pretty expensive. Instead, we all will work with several outside suppliers, and other centers of innovation like research colleges, industry groups and such, to jointly come up with the eventual battery that is good enough to appeal to a mass market and compete with, on a practical level, ICE technology. When the answer comes, some company is going to make a metric phuck-ton of profit on it but part of that is going to be because they can license it to ALL the auto companies who will in turn start working on either buying it from multiple sources or making it themselves. Its how major advances in the industry happen, everyone contributes to several paths to an answer and eventually an answer evolves. Its very rare that one single company will own all the technology and even if one does, its even more rare that they try to control it themselves beyond taking a royalty from several places that spend the big money that goes into manufacturing it. Besides, instead of one big factory trying to make 35 million batteries a year in one place (the round numbers global market), why not have, worldwide, 20 factories making them in locations close to the auto assembly plants with short supply trains and JIT capability.

Ask Takata how that "we make them all" works out when a problem comes up.

So lets say Elon does find the answer. He has the wonder battery that gives you a 400 mile charge in 20 minutes. Great for Elon, he can now sell the 10,000 cars a week he might eventually learn to build. He might even make on average $5000 profit per car.
How smart of him. He'll look like and really be the genius, the smartest guy in the car business and the one with the flat out best product. And he'll be making $2.6 billion a year in profit, which means in about 30 years he'll have paid for his cost to develop the product.

Better solution, if and when he does get the practical battery, he gives up building cars and licences the technology to 5 companies that will then build the actual batteries and pay him $1,000 royalty for every one of them. He makes $35 billion in profit for batteries that these other companies build which he can then spend on making flame thrower equipped rescue submarine spaceships. He re-coups the development investment in 2 or three years and the rest is all profit. He can fiddle around tweaking the design a little, enough to keep the companies paying for the rights after the patent expires. But the point is, he doesn't have to do anything for that income stream, once he finds the big idea, he can let people who know how to build things, in great big numbers, build them and pay him for every one they build.

It all falls down, of course, if Bosch, working with a consortium of engineers from Ford, GM and Tata Group along with The University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute, develops new battery technology that allows a 20 minute charge time for a range of 400 miles all while providing passengers free Chocolate Ice Cream as a by product. Then of course, Elon is kind of screwed.


Honorary Commander, 699th Airborne Assault Dachshund Regiment
Deadly Sausage Dogs from the Sky

User avatar
MN-Skeptic
Posts: 2902
Joined: Wed Jan 25, 2012 6:36 pm
Location: Twin Cities

Re: Theranos- medical lab testing

#78

Post by MN-Skeptic » Mon Aug 06, 2018 10:50 pm



MAGA - Morons Are Governing America

User avatar
Lani
Posts: 4902
Joined: Fri Nov 16, 2012 4:01 pm
Location: Some island in the Pacific

Re: Theranos- medical lab testing

#79

Post by Lani » Mon Aug 06, 2018 10:53 pm

MN-Skeptic wrote:
Mon Aug 06, 2018 10:50 pm
Hey folks - Fogbow thread on Tesla
All I got was "PAGE_NOT_FOUND".


Insert signature here: ____________________________________________________

User avatar
much ado
Posts: 1893
Joined: Mon Mar 23, 2009 12:56 am
Location: The Left Coast

Re: Theranos- medical lab testing

#80

Post by much ado » Mon Aug 06, 2018 11:01 pm

Lani wrote:
Mon Aug 06, 2018 10:53 pm
MN-Skeptic wrote:
Mon Aug 06, 2018 10:50 pm
Hey folks - Fogbow thread on Tesla
All I got was "PAGE_NOT_FOUND".
Is this better?

Fogbow thread on Tesla



User avatar
Lani
Posts: 4902
Joined: Fri Nov 16, 2012 4:01 pm
Location: Some island in the Pacific

Re: Theranos- medical lab testing

#81

Post by Lani » Mon Aug 06, 2018 11:06 pm

Yes, thank you!


Insert signature here: ____________________________________________________

boots
Posts: 3189
Joined: Sat May 16, 2015 5:23 pm

Re: Theranos- medical lab testing

#82

Post by boots » Mon Aug 06, 2018 11:16 pm

Gregg wrote:
Mon Aug 06, 2018 9:52 pm
2) Yes, Elon is perhaps developing the future technology of the auto industry. And then again, maybe he's not. What he has now isn't good enough to replace the ICE infrastructure but it is the best available. The problem is, what if Sumitomo or someone else comes out next week with what is the solution? Since Elon works with no one, and wants to be the big star, if he loses he will have blown a few billion dollars on the best damn buggy whips the world has ever seen. Ford, GM, Toyota, etc... are not going to sink the vast amount of capital into betting we can come up with the end all solution because losing that bet is pretty expensive. Instead, we all will work with several outside suppliers, and other centers of innovation like research colleges, industry groups and such, to jointly come up with the eventual battery that is good enough to appeal to a mass market and compete with, on a practical level, ICE technology. When the answer comes, some company is going to make a metric phuck-ton of profit on it but part of that is going to be because they can license it to ALL the auto companies who will in turn start working on either buying it from multiple sources or making it themselves. Its how major advances in the industry happen, everyone contributes to several paths to an answer and eventually an answer evolves. Its very rare that one single company will own all the technology and even if one does, its even more rare that they try to control it themselves beyond taking a royalty from several places that spend the big money that goes into manufacturing it. Besides, instead of one big factory trying to make 35 million batteries a year in one place (the round numbers global market), why not have, worldwide, 20 factories making them in locations close to the auto assembly plants with short supply trains and JIT capability.
I'm glad to read this, it makes me think that the American auto industry isn't as stupid as it really looks sometimes.



Somerset
Posts: 4339
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 5:52 am
Location: Silicon Valley
Occupation: Lab rat

Re: Theranos- medical lab testing

#83

Post by Somerset » Mon Aug 06, 2018 11:16 pm

Gregg wrote:
Mon Aug 06, 2018 9:52 pm
1) Maybe we should split this off into a Tesla thread, cause y'all pulled me into this and once I get started...well.
Yeah, I think it should be a separate thread too. The Theranos and Tesla sagas are quite different.

I appreciate your insights into the auto industry, and I think you tell a compelling story into why Tesla will likely fail, at least as a car manufacturer. Where I disagree a bit is how I think things will end up.

The one thing Tesla has done for the world, especially the western world, is show that BEVs are a viable alternative to ICE vehicles. I think this is pretty important, and I also think it's what the Tesla brand really stands for. I'd argue that Tesla's biggest IP isn't their battery technology (because from what I've been hearing, it isn't very innovative or all that much better than other company's products), but the brand.

Elon has said he's going to be opening a manufacturing plant in Shanghai. Obviously (to anyone who knows a bit about China), this is going to be a joint venture with an established Chinese auto manufacturer rather than a stand-alone Tesla factory. Given Tesla's financial health, I'd imagine the ownership split will be something like 80/20 or even 90/10. Any cars produced there would be Tesla in name only, and I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla is ultimately owned by a company like Haier or BYD, becoming a marque rather than staying a manufacturer.

What do you think?



User avatar
MN-Skeptic
Posts: 2902
Joined: Wed Jan 25, 2012 6:36 pm
Location: Twin Cities

Re: Theranos- medical lab testing

#84

Post by MN-Skeptic » Tue Aug 07, 2018 12:00 am

much ado wrote:
Mon Aug 06, 2018 11:01 pm
Lani wrote:
Mon Aug 06, 2018 10:53 pm
MN-Skeptic wrote:
Mon Aug 06, 2018 10:50 pm
Hey folks - Fogbow thread on Tesla
All I got was "PAGE_NOT_FOUND".
Is this better?

Fogbow thread on Tesla

:oops: Oops. Thanks for fixing it.


MAGA - Morons Are Governing America

User avatar
RVInit
Posts: 8316
Joined: Sat Mar 05, 2016 4:31 pm

Re: Theranos- medical lab testing

#85

Post by RVInit » Wed Mar 20, 2019 8:57 pm



"I know that human being and fish can coexist peacefully"
--- George W Bush

ImageImage

User avatar
RVInit
Posts: 8316
Joined: Sat Mar 05, 2016 4:31 pm

Re: Theranos- medical lab testing

#86

Post by RVInit » Wed Apr 03, 2019 1:00 am



"I know that human being and fish can coexist peacefully"
--- George W Bush

ImageImage

Post Reply

Return to “Science & Technology”