Earthquake! (or maybe Volcano!)

arock
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Re: Earthquake! (or maybe Volcano!)

#1001

Post by arock » Tue Oct 23, 2018 1:41 am

webhick wrote:
Sun Oct 21, 2018 12:18 pm
arock wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:24 pm
Thursday, October 18, is the Great ShakeOut.

Join millions of others in practicing safety drills (I didn't know that experts now recommend "on the floor, under furniture" rather than "get in a doorway").

https://www.shakeout.org/index.html
From what I understand it changed because doorways in new construction are not load bearing. If you're in an older building, the doorway is still a pretty good option. I live in a 200 year old home. I'd go for the doorway before I'd go under my rickety fiberboard table. I doubt it could bear my weight, much less the weight of bits of ceiling crashing down.

ETA: And I've thought about this extensively because I live near a fault-line that hasn't had a good shake in far too long.
I went back to the ShakeOut.org web site.

There's no one size fits all solution, just a best-for-a-lot-of-people suggestion. If you work in a cube farm or other open space, or are in a classroom, there aren't enough doorways, no matter the construction, maybe a suspended ceiling with lightweight tiles and light fixtures. Concerns: you can't tell intensity in first seconds and cannot get to doorway or outside (where there's danger of falling debris); glass from windows; falling bookcases and other furniture.

This page has recommendations for different situations such as in bed, a car, a theater, etc.
http://www.earthquakecountry.org/librar ... ctions.pdf

Each person has to figure out what's best, both in preparation and during a quake.

From the same web page:
doorway myth.JPG

Webhick, thanks for saying where you live as I was trying to think of place with a significant number of 200-year old homes and earthquake faults. NH did not come to mind.
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arock
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Re: Earthquake! (or maybe Volcano!)

#1002

Post by arock » Tue Oct 23, 2018 2:24 am

Jcolvin2 wrote:
Mon Oct 22, 2018 1:15 pm
Jcolvin2 wrote:
Sun Oct 21, 2018 4:51 pm
It seems like Seattle is also overdue for a quake (but we humans have a hard time understanding how probability works). Over the last few days, I have seen a large number of injured wild animals (three raccoons in two separate incidents and a great horned owl!). I know some believe that erratic animal behavior may be a harbinger for a coming earthquake, but I hope it is just coincidence in this case.
After I made the above post, several 6.5+ magnitude quakes happened last night off the coast of Vancouver Island:
Link to CBC Article re Vancouver Island Earthquakes

Coincidence?
I've believed for a long time that animals can (sometimes) tell us (if we're listening/watching) about an imminent earthquake. I have no firm beliefs about what kind of animals or how far in advance animals are aware.

The USGS has this (and this is all plus 3 references from the 1980s and 2000):
Animals & Earthquake Prediction

The earliest reference we have to unusual animal behavior prior to a significant earthquake is from Greece in 373 BC. Rats, weasels, snakes, and centipedes reportedly left their homes and headed for safety several days before a destructive earthquake. Anecdotal evidence abounds of animals, fish, birds, reptiles, and insects exhibiting strange behavior anywhere from weeks to seconds before an earthquake. However, consistent and reliable behavior prior to seismic events, and a mechanism explaining how it could work, still eludes us. Most, but not all, scientists pursuing this mystery are in China or Japan.

We can easily explain the cause of unusual animal behavior seconds before humans feel an earthquake. Very few humans notice the smaller P wave that travels the fastest from the earthquake source and arrives before the larger S wave. But many animals with more keen senses are able to feel the P wave seconds before the S wave arrives. As for sensing an impending earthquake days or weeks before it occurs, that's a different story.

A once popular theory purported that there was a correlation between Lost Pet ads in the San Jose Mercury News and the dates of earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay area. A thorough statistical analysis of this theory, published in California Geology in 1988, concluded that there was no such correlation, however.

Another paper published in a scientific journal in the U.S. on this subject by a respected scientist in 2000 is summarized here...

The paper poses this question: Is it reasonable for a seismic-escape behavior pattern to evolve, and can such a genetic system be maintained in the face of selection pressures operating on the time scales of damaging seismic events? All animals instinctively respond to escape from predators and to preserve their lives. A wide variety of vertebrates already express “early warning” behaviors that we understand for other types of events, so it’s possible that a seismic-escape response could have evolved from this already-existing genetic predisposal. An instinctive response following a P-wave seconds before a larger S wave is not a “huge leap”, so to speak, but what about other precursors that may occur days or weeks before an earthquake that we don’t yet know about? If in fact there are precursors to a significant earthquake that we have yet to learn about (such as ground tilting, groundwater changes, electrical or magnetic field variations), indeed it’s possible that some animals could sense these signals and connect the perception with an impending earthquake.

However, much research still needs to be done on this subject. The author suggests establishing a baseline behavior pattern that can be compared with reactions of various environmental stimuli, and then testing various potential stimuli in the laboratory. Of course, the presence of these stimuli still needs to be researched with regard to precursory phenomena preceding an earthquake, for if these signals aren’t present in the environment before an earthquake, a connection is irrelevant.
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/topics/animal_eqs.php

From an article written in 2012 and updated in 2018:
To get to the bottom of this question, Woith and his colleagues evaluated more than 700 published reports of unusual behavior among 130 species, including insects, birds, fish and mammals (mostly cats, dogs and cattle) from 160 earthquakes, he said.

The records included all kinds of behaviors, including a tiger that reportedly got depressed before an earthquake, Woith said.

Despite the vast number of alleged incidences, good information was sparse, Woith said. "A major surprise for us was that the large majority of the published claims were built on poor observational data [meaning most people did not properly observe the animals before, during and after the earthquake], which did not stand as statistical scientific proof," Woith said.

The researchers found that 90 percent of all reported cases happened within 62 miles (100 kilometers) of the epicenter and within 60 days of an earthquake. Then, they examined when and where foreshocks had happened in the region. The resemblance was remarkable, they found.

"The space-time pattern of animal precursors and foreshocks is strikingly similar," Woith said. "From this, we concluded that at least some of the abnormal animal behavior might simply be related to foreshocks."
https://www.livescience.com/32156-can-a ... uakes.html

A map showing locations of the recent earthquakes in relation to the Juan de Fuca Plate :


. . .
The tremors occurred at the Pacific Ocean-floor ridge that separates the Juan de Fuca Plate and its western neighbor, the Pacific Plate. But they do not necessarily signal an impending 9.0-magnitude earthquake, or a so-called “big one,” that geologists predict will hit Pacific Northwest, according to Tobin. That earthquake is expected to occur along the Cascadia fault line on the eastern side of the Juan de Fuca Plate.

. . .

The largest quake was relatively shallow, at about 6 miles, and it struck about 149 miles west of Tofino, B.C. Deeper earthquakes can be felt further away from where they occur, which explains why few people in the Northwest felt Sunday’s tremors, said Don Blakeman, a geophysicist with the U.S. Geological Survey who is based in Golden, Colorado.
Seismic Neglect

The earthquakes did not put any additional stress on the Cascadia Subduction Zone, where the big earthquake is expected to take place. That zone lies along the fault line where tension is mounting under the earth’s crust and where cities like Seattle are located. The new tremors were recorded just on the bou

. . .
Above map and quote from the Seattle Times



USGS

This link is for a series of slides (Power Point-y) with a number of examples of animal predictions; the link to a PBS documentary on animals and disasters at the end has expired. Dated 2010.
https://faculty.washington.edu/tswanson ... iction.pdf



IMHO, the dead and injured animals that you saw aren't related to the earthquakes because the earthquakes were too far away and on a different plate (I haven't looked specifically for information about whether animals can sense quakes in a different plate). The shallow depth also makes it less likely.

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Re: Earthquake! (or maybe Volcano!)

#1003

Post by Addie » Sat Oct 27, 2018 2:11 pm

The Weather Channel
Discoveries about 2017 Mexican Earthquake Rattle Geologists

A magnitude 8.2 earthquake that struck southern Mexico on Sept. 7, 2017, not only occurred where existing earthquake modeling said it shouldn't happen, it also broke a tectonic plate, according to scientists.

The Tehuantepec quake struck off the Pacific coast of Mexico's Chiapas state, which borders Guatemala. Nearly 100 people were killed and hundreds more were injured.

Geologists initially thought the earthquake occurred where the Cocos ocean plate is being overridden by a continental plate. Megaquakes generally occur near the top of where plates converge, an area called the subduction zone.

The epicenter of the Tehuantepec quake, however, was much deeper – about 28 miles deep in the Cocos plate – than earthquake models said it should be, according to a report in the journal Nature Geoscience. ...

Melgar's team suspects seawater got into the Cocos plate and possibly sped up the cooling, making it susceptible to tension earthquakes.

If that's possible, Melgar said, other areas – including the U.S. West Coast and from Guatemala southward in Central America – are susceptible to tension-zone earthquakes.

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Re: Earthquake! (or maybe Volcano!)

#1004

Post by Volkonski » Mon Oct 29, 2018 10:13 am

Government Ranks 18 US Volcanoes as 'Very High Threat'

https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/nati ... wt_LABrand
Government scientists are classifying 18 U.S. volcanoes as a "very high threat" because of what's been happening inside them and how close they are to people.

The U.S. Geological Survey is updating its volcano threat assessments for the first time since 2005. The danger list is topped by Hawaii's Kilauea, which has been erupting this year. The others in the top five are Mount St. Helens and Mount Rainier in Washington, Alaska's Redoubt Volcano and California's Mount Shasta.

The agency says a dozen volcanoes have jumped in threat level since 2005. Twenty others dropped in threat level.

Among those where the threat score is higher are Alaska's Redoubt, Mount Okmok, Akutan Island and Mount Spurr. Threat scores also rose for Oregon's Newberry Volcano and Wyoming's Yellowstone.
Image“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.”
― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace

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Re: Earthquake! (or maybe Volcano!)

#1005

Post by arock » Fri Nov 30, 2018 2:32 pm

Magnitude 6.6 (prelim) 10 miles NNW (or NE, depending on source!) of Anchorage. No tsunami expected now.


Josh Bierma @jlennyb
9:55 AM - Nov 30, 2018
https://twitter.com/ jlennyb/status/1068564106964160512

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Re: Earthquake! (or maybe Volcano!)

#1006

Post by RTH10260 » Fri Nov 30, 2018 11:18 pm

Local coverage from Alaska:

https://www.ktva.com/

(European / overseas viewers may need a VPN to trick them to think them to be in N.America)

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Re: Earthquake! (or maybe Volcano!)

#1007

Post by arock » Mon Dec 03, 2018 4:14 pm

USGS ShakeAlert @USGS_ShakeAlert

Interested in hosting a station for #ShakeAlert network? See what areas we're looking to increase our footprint, and what it takes to make a good candidate for location: http://seismo.berkeley.edu/seismo/resea ... ation.html … via @BerkeleySeismo

3:05 PM - Nov 2, 2018
shake alert map.JPG


https://twitter.com/ USGS_ShakeAlert/status/1058495243610284032
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Re: Earthquake! (or maybe Volcano!)

#1008

Post by arock » Mon Dec 03, 2018 4:20 pm

USGS has a calculator for comparing earthquake magnitudes and energy released.

Compare the recent 7.0 to the 1964 9.2 . . .

251.88 times bigger

and

3981.071 times stronger (energy released)

https://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/topics/calculator.php

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Re: Earthquake! (or maybe Volcano!)

#1009

Post by Volkonski » Sun Dec 23, 2018 5:20 pm

Archaeologists find remains of horses in ancient Pompeii stable

https://www.theguardian.com/science/201 ... 1545598117
Archaeologists have unearthed the petrified remains of a harnessed horse and saddle in the stable of an ancient villa in a Pompeii suburb.

The Pompeii archaeological park’s head, Massimo Osanna, told the Italian news agency Ansa that the villa belonged to a high-ranking military officer, perhaps a general, in ancient Roman times.

Osanna was quoted on Sunday as saying that the remains of two or three other horses were also discovered. The villa’s terraces had views of the Bay of Naples and the island of Capri. The area was excavated during the early 1900s, but later reburied.

The volcanic eruption of Mount Vesuvius destroyed the flourishing city of Pompeii, near present-day Naples, in AD79. Osanna says suffocating volcanic ash or boiling vapours killed the horses. He hopes that the villa will eventually reopen for public visits.
Image
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Re: Earthquake! (or maybe Volcano!)

#1010

Post by Volkonski » Mon Dec 24, 2018 2:07 pm

WEATHER/ METEO WORLD

@StormchaserUKEU
1h1 hour ago
More
WOW!!! Extraordinary #Etna #volcanic eruption, #Sicily, Italy last night 23/24th December.... Thanks to Vinko Martinic for the photo! #extremeweather
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Re: Earthquake! (or maybe Volcano!)

#1011

Post by Whip » Mon Dec 24, 2018 4:30 pm

shame it causes so much devastation. gotta say, that is an awesome picture.

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Re: Earthquake! (or maybe Volcano!)

#1012

Post by Volkonski » Wed Dec 26, 2018 9:32 am

Quake From Mount Etna Volcano Jolts Sicily, Sparks Panic

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... 1545471736
A quake triggered by Mount Etna’s eruption jolted eastern Sicily before dawn Wednesday, injuring at least 10 people, damaging churches and houses on the volcano’s slopes and prompting panicked villagers to flee their homes.

Italy’s Civil Protection officials said the quake, which struck at 3:19 a.m., was part of a swarm of some 1,000 tremors, most of them barely perceptible, linked to Etna’s volcanic eruption this week.

The quake struck north of Catania, the largest city in the eastern part of the Mediterranean island, but no damage or injuries were reported there. Italy’s national seismology institute said the quake had a magnitude of 4.8 on the open-ended Richter scale and 4.9 on the moment magnitude scale, which is related to the amount the ground slips.

The temblor occurred at a relatively shallow depth, 0.6 mile under the mountain’s surface.
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Re: Earthquake! (or maybe Volcano!)

#1013

Post by RTH10260 » Wed Dec 26, 2018 9:36 am

And as a result of this quake an early morning flight from London to Catania got rerouted to Malta cause the airport had closed.

Several italian :brickwallsmall: passengers were very upset not to be dropped off in time at their doorsteps, police had to be called.

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Re: Earthquake! (or maybe Volcano!)

#1014

Post by RTH10260 » Wed Dec 26, 2018 10:02 am

Are you prepared for the tsunami that may cross the Atlantic and hit Americas East Coast?

Culprit would be the dormant volcanos on the island of La Palma, off the western African coast, territory of Spain.


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Re: Earthquake! (or maybe Volcano!)

#1015

Post by Notorial Dissent » Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:14 pm

One of the new additions from Pele's latest dance is that the coastline has been extended, and a number of NEW black sand beaches have been created.

LA Times
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Re: Earthquake! (or maybe Volcano!)

#1016

Post by Addie » Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:45 pm

WUSA9: 4.7 magnitude earthquake reported off shore near Ocean City, Maryland

No tsunami warnings have been issued at this time.

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Re: Earthquake! (or maybe Volcano!)

#1017

Post by AndyinPA » Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:23 pm

I don't think I've ever thought of Ocean City as a place for earthquakes!

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Re: Earthquake! (or maybe Volcano!)

#1018

Post by Addie » Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:37 am

SFG
Ten earthquakes strike the coast of Northern California in less than 24 hours

Ten earthquakes of preliminary magnitudes between 3.0 and 4.5 struck off the coast of Northern California between Saturday and Sunday, the United States Geological Survey reports.

The series of earthquakes rumbled beneath the Pacific Ocean, between 3 miles and 27 miles west of Petrolia in Humboldt County.

The first earthquake struck early Saturday morning at a magnitude of 4.3, while a second earthquake, of 3.2 magnitude, rumbled about 30 minutes later. Three additional earthquakes hit between 4:30 p.m. and 5:38 p.m. Saturday in the same area, registering magnitudes between 2.9 and 3.6, USGS reported. A 3.0-magnitude earthquake struck that night, at 11:37 p.m.

The geological activity continued into Sunday. USGS reported four earthquakes near Petrolia between 2:18 p.m. and 4:05 p.m. The earthquakes ranged in magnitude from 3.4 to 4.5.

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Re: Earthquake! (or maybe Volcano!)

#1019

Post by RTH10260 » Wed Mar 27, 2019 10:44 am

Small slide show of the aftermath of the Sulawesi tsunami a half a year ago:

(sorry German subtitles only, you may have to click right or left to position to the correct slide show of 3)

https://www.bluewin.ch/de/news/vermisch ... 31&slide=1

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Re: Earthquake! (or maybe Volcano!)

#1020

Post by Kendra » Sat Mar 30, 2019 11:54 am



Was this the one Roger Poots was on a few months ago?

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Re: Earthquake! (or maybe Volcano!)

#1021

Post by Whatever4 » Sat Mar 30, 2019 11:10 pm

Wicked cool. :o
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Re: Earthquake! (or maybe Volcano!)

#1022

Post by Notorial Dissent » Sun Mar 31, 2019 1:24 am

That was fascinating to watch and no where near as bad as I was expecting. Mexican volcanoes have a bad history with eruptions.
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Re: Earthquake! (or maybe Volcano!)

#1023

Post by Whip » Sun Mar 31, 2019 1:32 pm

Notorial Dissent wrote:
Sun Mar 31, 2019 1:24 am
Mexican volcanoes have a bad history with eruptions.
are you talking real volcanoes or is it a metaphor about the seim?

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Re: Earthquake! (or maybe Volcano!)

#1024

Post by Estiveo » Sun Mar 31, 2019 2:36 pm

No, it's because Mexican volcanoes are stratospheric, they have lava, they have lahars, they have pyroclastic flows, and some, I assume, are dormant.
Image Image Image Image Image

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Re: Earthquake! (or maybe Volcano!)

#1025

Post by Mikedunford » Sun Mar 31, 2019 2:39 pm

Estiveo wrote:
Sun Mar 31, 2019 2:36 pm
No, it's because Mexican volcanoes are stratospheric, they have lava, they have lahars, they have pyroclastic flows, and some, I assume, are dormant.
:lol: :lol:
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