Hurricane Michael

Post Reply
User avatar
Orlylicious
Posts: 7847
Joined: Mon Apr 23, 2012 4:02 pm
Location: DHS Psy-Ops HQ

Hurricane Michael

#1

Post by Orlylicious » Tue Oct 09, 2018 11:14 pm

Hurricane Michael is now predicted to strengthen to a Category 4 before landfall. There has never been a Cat 4 in history landing there. Spring Break capitol Panama City is right in the bulls eye.

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum is the mayor of Tallahassee, he's going to get a lot of national attention in the next few days. Tallahassee has a huge number of trees and latest is they will have 77mph+ winds tomorrow. State and local races are already being impacted by the Red Tide issue and the storm surge is going to be a nightmare. There are also questions coming up about voter registration deadlines, it was yesterday but people were evacuating. On the other hand, it's north Florida so maybe it's OK 8-)

The deadline to register online is Tuesday, October 9.
The deadline for registering to vote by mail is Tuesday, October 9.
The deadline to register to vote in person is Tuesday, October 9.

This is going to peak in the afternoon tomorrow so unusually it will be in daylight. NOAA is saying a lot of the area will be uninhabitable for months.

Michael 14.JPG
11pm Forecast from NOAA:
Hurricane Michael Public Advisory
U.S. Watch/Warning Local Products
000
WTNT34 KNHC 100251
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE MICHAEL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 86.5W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
Tampa Bay
* Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida
* north of Fernandina Beach Florida to South Santee River South
Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is
a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the
next 12 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Michael was
located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 86.5 West. Michael is
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward motion
is expected through tonight, followed by a northeastward motion on
Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael
will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight. The
center of Michael's eye is then expected to move inland over the
Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then
move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday
night and Thursday, and move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from
the United States on Friday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with
higher gusts. Michael is now a strong category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some further strengthening is
expected overnight and on Wednesday, and Michael is forecast to
become a category 4 hurricane before it makes landfall in the
Florida Panhandle or the Florida Big Bend area. Weakening is
expected after landfall as Michael moves across the southeastern
United States.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 947 mb (27.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Mexico Beach FL to Keaton Beach FL...9-13 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Mexico Beach FL...6-9 ft
Keaton Beach FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft
Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft
Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical
storm conditions expected by tonight or early Wednesday. Hurricane
conditions will also spread well inland across portions of the
Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area by tonight or early Wednesday, and are possible within the
tropical storm watch area by that time. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along
the southeast U.S. coast by Wednesday, and possible in the watch
area by late Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday...

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of
southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life threatening
flash floods.

The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3
to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This
rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England
coast...1-3 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the coasts of the
eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico, and will spread to portions of
the northwestern and western Gulf of Mexico coast during the next
day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

TORNADOES: The threat for tornadoes will increase late tonight into
Wednesday over parts of the Florida Panhandle, the northern Florida
Peninsula, and southern Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
As always, Dr. Jeff Masters at WeatherUnderground is an extraordinary resource for all things Hurricane:
Category 3 Michael Intensifying En Route to Florida Panhandle
Dr. Jeff Masters · October 9, 2018, 5:22 PM EDT

Dangerous Hurricane Michael is now a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds as it churns northward at 12 mph towards an expected landfall in the Florida Panhandle on Wednesday afternoon. A storm surge of over two feet is already affecting the Panhandle, and weather conditions will deteriorate tonight. If you live in an evacuation zone for storm surge and have been told to leave, get to your safe shelter inland tonight! You may not be able to evacuate safely on Wednesday.

Two hurricane hunter aircraft were in Michael late Tuesday afternoon, and reported that Michael had still not closed off an eyewall around its 20-mile diameter eye. The eye was also not very warm—about 5 - 6°C warmer than the air just outside the eye, which is low for a major hurricane. These factors suggested that Michael was still having trouble with the moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots affecting it, and had not mixed out dry air from its core. Until Michael does manage to close off a complete eyewall, intensification will likely be at the rather moderate pace we’ve seen over the past day.
Much more: https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Categ ... -Panhandle


As a reference point, 2006's Hurricane Wilma which caused incredible destruction in South Florida (which has the strongest building codes in the nation), was really a Cat1 storm (Cat2 in some places). One way to think of wind speed is imagine getting on the roof of your car while somebody drives 60mph. Now imagine driving at 130mph. Devastating, it's all going to be wiped out.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.



User avatar
Orlylicious
Posts: 7847
Joined: Mon Apr 23, 2012 4:02 pm
Location: DHS Psy-Ops HQ

Re: Hurricane Michael

#2

Post by Orlylicious » Wed Oct 10, 2018 2:03 am

Sadly, Michael has become a Category 4, 130mph winds. Tallahasee is looking at 4-8 inches of rain and 100mph winds (upgraded). 2am 14A Advisory:
Hurricane Michael Public Advisory
000
WTNT34 KNHC 100555
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
100 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...MICHAEL BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 86.6W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES




User avatar
Lani
Posts: 3932
Joined: Fri Nov 16, 2012 4:01 pm
Location: Some island in the Pacific

Re: Hurricane Michael

#3

Post by Lani » Wed Oct 10, 2018 2:26 am

The Carolinas are going to get floods again.
:(


Insert signature here: ____________________________________________________

User avatar
Whatever4
Posts: 11520
Joined: Tue Sep 08, 2009 6:36 am
Location: Mainely in the plain
Occupation: Visiting doctors.

Re: Hurricane Michael

#4

Post by Whatever4 » Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:50 am

I’ve lost track... what evil is God punishing us for this hurricane?


"[Moderate] doesn't mean you don't have views. It just means your views aren't predictable ideologically one way or the other, and you're trying to follow the facts where they lead and reach your own conclusions."
-- Sen. King (R-ME)

User avatar
Lani
Posts: 3932
Joined: Fri Nov 16, 2012 4:01 pm
Location: Some island in the Pacific

Re: Hurricane Michael

#5

Post by Lani » Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:54 am

The 5 am EST update - maximum sustained wind is 140mph with higher gusts. :eek2:


Insert signature here: ____________________________________________________

User avatar
Sugar Magnolia
Posts: 9439
Joined: Sun Apr 01, 2012 6:44 am

Re: Hurricane Michael

#6

Post by Sugar Magnolia » Wed Oct 10, 2018 5:19 am

Whatever4 wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:50 am
I’ve lost track... what evil is God punishing us for this hurricane?
Rick Scott.



User avatar
Orlylicious
Posts: 7847
Joined: Mon Apr 23, 2012 4:02 pm
Location: DHS Psy-Ops HQ

Re: Hurricane Michael

#7

Post by Orlylicious » Wed Oct 10, 2018 5:39 am

Command view at The Weather Channel (what's the WD-40 for?):





Image


This is cool... On The Weather Channel, there's a riptide advisory, but the robot female voice repeated it every two minutes, it was over the program so it was impossible to follow. I tweeted them and they fixed it! Good for them.








And re Red Tide:





User avatar
Foggy
Posts: 26663
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2009 12:00 pm
Location: Fogbow HQ
Occupation: Dick Tater

Re: Hurricane Michael

#8

Post by Foggy » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:11 am

The NC State Fair starts tomorrow. Michael will have to go somewhere else. :fingerwag:


In my defense, I was left unsupervised.

User avatar
RoadScholar
Posts: 7182
Joined: Wed Jan 26, 2011 10:25 am
Location: Baltimore
Occupation: Historic Restoration Woodworker
Contact:

Re: Hurricane Michael

#9

Post by RoadScholar » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:29 am

Foggy wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:11 am
The NC State Fair starts tomorrow. Michael will have to go somewhere else. :fingerwag:
If he does show up, you'll be able to tell it's him by his single glove. ;)


The bitterest truth is healthier than the sweetest lie.
X3

User avatar
Volkonski
Posts: 18280
Joined: Sat Mar 02, 2013 4:44 pm
Location: Texas Gulf Coast and North Fork of Long Island
Occupation: Retired Mechanical Engineer

Re: Hurricane Michael

#10

Post by Volkonski » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:52 am



Image“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.”
― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace

User avatar
Tiredretiredlawyer
Posts: 7088
Joined: Tue May 10, 2016 2:56 pm
Location: Animal Planet
Occupation: Permanent probationary slave to 2 dogs, 1 cat, and 1 horse

Re: Hurricane Michael

#11

Post by Tiredretiredlawyer » Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:26 am

RoadScholar wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:29 am
Foggy wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:11 am
The NC State Fair starts tomorrow. Michael will have to go somewhere else. :fingerwag:
If he does show up, you'll be able to tell it's him by his single glove. ;)
:rotflmao:


"The people must know before they can act, and there is no educator to compare with the press." - Ida B. Wells-Barnett, journalist, newspaper editor, suffragist, feminist and founder with others of NAACP.

User avatar
Volkonski
Posts: 18280
Joined: Sat Mar 02, 2013 4:44 pm
Location: Texas Gulf Coast and North Fork of Long Island
Occupation: Retired Mechanical Engineer

Re: Hurricane Michael

#12

Post by Volkonski » Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:02 pm


Philip Klotzbach

Verified account

@philklotzbach
Follow Follow @philklotzbach
More
#Hurricane #Michael's pressure continues to drop - now down to 919 hPa. Only two continental US hurricanes have made landfall with a lower pressure: Labor Day (1935) - 892 hPa and Camille (1969) - 900 hPa.


Image“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.”
― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace

User avatar
Volkonski
Posts: 18280
Joined: Sat Mar 02, 2013 4:44 pm
Location: Texas Gulf Coast and North Fork of Long Island
Occupation: Retired Mechanical Engineer

Re: Hurricane Michael

#13

Post by Volkonski » Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:04 pm



Image“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.”
― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace

User avatar
Volkonski
Posts: 18280
Joined: Sat Mar 02, 2013 4:44 pm
Location: Texas Gulf Coast and North Fork of Long Island
Occupation: Retired Mechanical Engineer

Re: Hurricane Michael

#14

Post by Volkonski » Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:08 pm

Screenshot from rthat live feed above. A roof is blowing off a building in Panama City.

Image


Image“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.”
― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace

User avatar
Volkonski
Posts: 18280
Joined: Sat Mar 02, 2013 4:44 pm
Location: Texas Gulf Coast and North Fork of Long Island
Occupation: Retired Mechanical Engineer

Re: Hurricane Michael

#15

Post by Volkonski » Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:18 pm



Image“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.”
― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace

User avatar
Reality Check
Posts: 14920
Joined: Fri Feb 20, 2009 8:09 pm
Location: USA
Contact:

Re: Hurricane Michael

#16

Post by Reality Check » Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:25 pm

Michael strengthened fast. Now 150 mph sustained winds and central pressure of 919 mb.


"“If you’re not outraged, you’re not paying attention.”

Heather Heyer, November 2016

User avatar
Volkonski
Posts: 18280
Joined: Sat Mar 02, 2013 4:44 pm
Location: Texas Gulf Coast and North Fork of Long Island
Occupation: Retired Mechanical Engineer

Re: Hurricane Michael

#17

Post by Volkonski » Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:34 pm

https://abcnews.go.com/US/hurricane-tra ... d=58377692

ABC News reporting that in Mexico, FL homes are being blown off of their foundations.


Image“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.”
― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace

User avatar
RoadScholar
Posts: 7182
Joined: Wed Jan 26, 2011 10:25 am
Location: Baltimore
Occupation: Historic Restoration Woodworker
Contact:

Re: Hurricane Michael

#18

Post by RoadScholar » Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:35 pm

That's pushing Category 5.

Oh, man.


The bitterest truth is healthier than the sweetest lie.
X3

User avatar
Reality Check
Posts: 14920
Joined: Fri Feb 20, 2009 8:09 pm
Location: USA
Contact:

Re: Hurricane Michael

#19

Post by Reality Check » Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:50 pm

155 mph on latest report. Still 919 mb.


"“If you’re not outraged, you’re not paying attention.”

Heather Heyer, November 2016

User avatar
Volkonski
Posts: 18280
Joined: Sat Mar 02, 2013 4:44 pm
Location: Texas Gulf Coast and North Fork of Long Island
Occupation: Retired Mechanical Engineer

Re: Hurricane Michael

#20

Post by Volkonski » Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:58 pm

Marvin

@MarvinDMartian2
2m2 minutes ago
More Marvin Retweeted Andrew Pritchard
Brett Adair is the "goto guy" for storm chasers to get their storm footage sold to the networks. Hope they found a safe place. They were in the worst place...Right Front of #Hurricane #Michael @ Mexico Beach #flwx

Andrew Pritchard

@skydrama
Follow Follow @skydrama
More
Brett Adair's car is floating away in storm surge from #HurricaneMichael. They abandoned the vehicle and "climbed a house to safety" about 15 minutes ago. No idea where or how they are doing: https://livestormchasing.com/stvream/brett.adair


Image“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.”
― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace

User avatar
Chilidog
Posts: 8831
Joined: Mon Jan 09, 2012 11:36 am

Re: Hurricane Michael

#21

Post by Chilidog » Wed Oct 10, 2018 2:01 pm

Trump
“It’s like a big tornado, a massive tornado.”
:brickwallsmall:



User avatar
Volkonski
Posts: 18280
Joined: Sat Mar 02, 2013 4:44 pm
Location: Texas Gulf Coast and North Fork of Long Island
Occupation: Retired Mechanical Engineer

Re: Hurricane Michael

#22

Post by Volkonski » Wed Oct 10, 2018 2:20 pm



In Panama City-

Image


Image“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.”
― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace

User avatar
MN-Skeptic
Posts: 2272
Joined: Wed Jan 25, 2012 6:36 pm
Location: Twin Cities

Re: Hurricane Michael

#23

Post by MN-Skeptic » Wed Oct 10, 2018 2:21 pm

I can understand weather folks wanting to stand out in the hurricane to report on it, but they're idiots. With the speed the winds are blowing, they don't have a hope of dodging large debris which could kill them.


MAGA - Morons Are Governing America

User avatar
Sugar Magnolia
Posts: 9439
Joined: Sun Apr 01, 2012 6:44 am

Re: Hurricane Michael

#24

Post by Sugar Magnolia » Wed Oct 10, 2018 2:33 pm

Whatever4 wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:50 am
I’ve lost track... what evil is God punishing us for this hurricane?
https://theguardiansofdemocracy.com/chr ... firmation/
Apparently it's not God, it's the Democrats.



User avatar
Orlylicious
Posts: 7847
Joined: Mon Apr 23, 2012 4:02 pm
Location: DHS Psy-Ops HQ

Re: Hurricane Michael

#25

Post by Orlylicious » Wed Oct 10, 2018 2:39 pm

MN-Skeptic wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 2:21 pm
I can understand weather folks wanting to stand out in the hurricane to report on it, but they're idiots. With the speed the winds are blowing, they don't have a hope of dodging large debris which could kill them.
Speaking as a guy who represents hurricane experts, the idea is to show people what's going on so they don't leave their homes to see it for themselves. Plus of course it's ratings, everybody wants to see if there's a disaster on the air. Nobody's forced to do it, the networks ask for volunteers to cover these storms. The one thing that's annoying is having the old guys out... there should be younger guys and girls who don't blow away. Mike Cantore is getting too old for this! Derek Van Dam is a great example, he's young and hot and very knowledgeable, he's a CNN Weather Anchor.




Post Reply

Return to “► ► Breaking News ◄ ◄”