2015 Mayor: Chicago IL

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Addie
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2015 Mayor: Chicago IL

#1

Post by Addie » Tue Mar 31, 2015 2:19 pm

Chicago Tribune













Mayor Rahm Emanuel opens big lead on challenger Jesus 'Chuy' Garcia



Mayor Rahm Emanuel has opened up a substantial lead on challenger Jesus "Chuy" Garcia with only a week to go in the runoff campaign, a new Chicago Tribune poll has found.

Emanuel has the backing of 58 percent of voters compared with 30 percent for Garcia — double the margin of a similar survey three weeks ago, when the mayor led his opponent by 14 percentage points. Another 9 percent were undecided in the latest poll, which was conducted March 25 through Sunday and has an error margin of 3.7 percentage points.

The mayor has surged this month by making gains among white voters, continuing to improve how voters view him and airing a stream of TV attack ads to drive up negative perceptions of Garcia.

While the poll shows Emanuel with momentum, next week's election is uncharted territory for Chicago. It's the city's first mayoral runoff, and it falls during spring break for Chicago Public Schools, leaving voter turnout in question. Garcia is counting on a strong ground game led by his union supporters to make up for a lack of campaign money compared with Emanuel.








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#2

Post by Addie » Tue Apr 07, 2015 12:38 pm

Bloomberg











Emanuel Leads Garcia in Polls as Chicago Veers Toward Insolvency





Whether it’s Rahm Emanuel or Jesus “Chuy” Garcia, the victor in Chicago’s mayoral runoff will face the unenviable task of reversing a fiscal decline that’s left the city’s credit rating on the cusp of junk.



Emanuel, who’s guided the third-most-populous U.S. city since 2011, led Garcia, a Cook County commissioner, by as much as 28 percentage points in polls going into Tuesday’s election. Chicago’s finances became a focal point during the campaign after Moody’s Investors Service lowered its rank by five steps since 2013 to Baa2, the second-lowest level of investment grade.



In the $3.5 trillion municipal-bond market, some investors Chicago depends on to finance its operations, including AllianceBernstein Holding LP, already consider the city equivalent to speculative grade. The next mayor will confront the prospect of a politically poisonous property-tax boost as one of the few possible solutions to halt the fiscal decay. ...



Emanuel, 55, and his challenger, Garcia, 58, have barely mentioned a possible increase in property taxes, though they’ve both stopped short of promising not to raise the levy.



The mayor, former chief of staff for President Barack Obama, faces the runoff after failing to win a majority against four opponents in a Feb. 24 election. Emanuel led Garcia by a margin of 58 percent to 30 percent, according to a Chicago Tribune poll published March 31. The first-term mayor led by 18 percentage points in a poll conducted April 3-4 by Ogden & Fry.





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#3

Post by Addie » Tue Apr 07, 2015 9:03 pm

The Atlantic











Why Can't the Left Unseat Rahm Emanuel?



After years of his tiresome shtick—the bullying, the profanity, the glorified tough-guy act, and most of all the centrist corporatism—Rahm Emanuel was getting his due, and the progressive wing of the Democratic Party was elated. It was late February, and the Chicago mayor had just been forced into a runoff to hold on to his seat, despite spending nearly $16 million and bringing in President Obama for a last-minute appearance in a bid to head off challengers.



"Rahm Emanuel and his corporate cronies have awoken a massive grassroots army across the city committed to ending his agenda of privatization, public school closings, and pension cuts," exulted Jim Dean, brother of Howard and head of the liberal group Democracy for America.



With the final ballot coming on Tuesday, that excitement has mellowed into glum resignation as Emanuel looks like a lock to win a second term. Poll after poll shows him with a sizable lead over Jesus "Chuy" Garcia, a Cook County commissioner. ...



Part of the problem may be the candidate himself. Garcia has some enthusiastic backers, but much of his broader appeal seems rooted in the fact that he's not Rahm rather than that he is Chuy. That was enough to push him to 35 percent in the first round, but it doesn't look like it will be enough to get him over the 50 percent mark in a head-to-head battle. Throughout the campaign, Garcia has been criticized for failing to better define the positive ideas for which he stands, or to define a specific blueprint for how he'd run the city. There's a wistful note in the voices of some progressives as they imagine what might have happened with a stronger challenger.








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#4

Post by Addie » Tue Apr 07, 2015 9:13 pm

CBS Local











RAHM EMANUEL TOPS CHUY GARCIA FOR CHICAGO MAYOR





CHICAGO (CBS) — Thrown into a bruising run-off election, Rahm Emanuel scored a hard-fought win for a second term, defeating Jesus “Chuy” Garcia on Tuesday, thus ending a mayoral campaign never before seen in Chicago.



With nearly two thirds of the vote counted, Emanuel held a 56 percent to 44 percent edge over Garcia. CBS 2 exit polling data from Edison Research projected the final margin to be 54 percent to 46 percent. ...



In the end, Emanuel proved to be too well-funded for the grass-roots campaign of Garcia. Emanuel also effectively attacked Garcia, who had a difficult time explaining details of how he would carry out his agenda, in a series of campaign commercials.



CBS 2 exit polling, based on 1,300 interviews, supported that outcome. Voters preferred Emanuel’s experience and more clearly articulated plan for the city. Garcia polled better when voters were asked which candidate could bring about more change.








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#5

Post by Chilidog » Tue Apr 07, 2015 10:30 pm

As a Chicago suburbanite, here is my take.

Rahm is an ass. He is not all that likable. But you can trust that he knows what he is doing.

Chuy is like a big teddy bear. However, I think a lot of people had reasonable questions about his capabilities.

In the end, I think I prefer Rahm. If nothing else, for the fact that I fully expect Rahm to be able to stand up to Bruce Rauner and tell him to fuck off right to his face.

I doubt that Chuy would have been able to do that. .

Also, Chuy was full of it when it came to the public schools.



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#6

Post by Addie » Wed Apr 08, 2015 10:18 am

alcibiades_mystery on DU drew up this breakdown on the Chicago vote.











Generally Interesting Chicago Results by Ward



Obviously, a bit of knowledge of Chicago doesn't hurt here. The conclusions from the data below? African American majority wards tended to mirror the total result for the most part, with perhaps a slight edge to Rahm. In other words, where the total result was Rahm 56% to Chuy 44%, African American majority wards tended to be about the same, with some edging closer to 58% to 42%.

The clear (and not unexpected) result is that the majority (and heavily) white wards broke huge for Rahm. They were in the 65% range for the most part. Some, like the 44th Ward, went huge for Rahm on lowish turnout: Rahm: 76% Chuy 24%. Unlike what we've been told here, the 44th Ward tends to be a youngish ward - lots of apartments and young people in that area. So, either the young white folks broke for Rahm, or they stayed home. I'm happy to hear another explanation for the 44th Ward results.

Majority African American Wards (according to 2010 census): 3,4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 16, 17, 18, 20, 21, 24, 28, 29, 34

Percentages in those wards:

Ward 3

Rahm 65% Chuy 34%

Ward 4

Rahm 58% Chuy 42%

Ward 5

Rahm 56% Chuy 44%

Ward 6

Rahm 56% Chuy 44%

Ward 7

Rahm 56% Chuy 44%

Ward 8

Rahm 58% Chuy 42%

Ward 9

Rahm 58% Chuy 42%

Ward 16

Rahm 51% Chuy 49%

Ward 17

Rahm 55% Chuy 45%

Ward 18

Rahm 51% Chuy 49%

Ward 21

Rahm 58% Chuy 42%

Ward 24 (West Side)

Rahm 52% Chuy 48%

Ward 28 (West Side)

Rahm 58% Chuy 42%

Ward 29 (West Side)

Rahm 57% Chuy 43%

Sampling of Rahm's total in the heavily white wards

Ward 41 (Far North West)

Rahm 64% Chuy 36%

Ward 47 (North center)

Rahm 62% Chuy 37%Ward 44 (Lakeview, North Lincoln Park, etc. roughly 80% white, young)

Rahm 75% Chuy 24%








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Chilidog
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#7

Post by Chilidog » Wed Apr 08, 2015 11:07 am

I'm going be a cynic here, but the only reason Chuy got as far as he did was because the teachers union supported him. I figure that is because their contract expires this year, and they figured Chuy would be easier to win concessions from.



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#8

Post by Addie » Wed Apr 08, 2015 11:11 am

I suspect Chicago knows it needs a nutcracker, particularly in its problematic financial state.


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#9

Post by kate520 » Wed Apr 08, 2015 12:33 pm

Plus, Rahm will be blamed when he can't fix it, not the progressive guy. It never helps to have progressive politicians fail, as, frankly, anyone in that position will do.


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