Election Results 11/8/2016

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Plutodog
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Re: Election Results 11/8/2016

#476

Post by Plutodog » Sat Nov 12, 2016 11:49 am

Lookit all these local marijuana measures in Oregon!

http://gov.oregonlive.com/election/2016 ... a-results/


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esseff44
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Re: Election Results 11/8/2016

#477

Post by esseff44 » Sat Nov 12, 2016 2:34 pm

Plutodog wrote:Lookit all these local marijuana measures in Oregon!

http://gov.oregonlive.com/election/2016 ... a-results/


What does it all boil down to, Plutodog? It looks like all the pro cannabis measures passed and all the bans failed. Is that right?



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Re: Election Results 11/8/2016

#478

Post by RVInit » Sat Nov 12, 2016 4:04 pm

Four years of Trump might even make ME start smoking pot!


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esseff44
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Re: Election Results 11/8/2016

#479

Post by esseff44 » Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:37 am

Here's an interesting Texas district. It stretches along the Mexican border in the southwest part of the state. It is the only competitive district in Texas. Bill Hurd is a GOP Congress member who defeated the Dem candidate who used to be the representative. So this was a rematch. The race was very close with a Libertarian getting more that the difference between the winner and second place Dem.

What I found really interesting was the statement of Rep. Bill Hurd about Trump. I wonder where he stands now.

See also: Republicans and their declared positions on Donald Trump

"Hurd has declined to endorse or vote for Donald Trump, explaining that Trump must earn his support. On May 6, 2016, Hurd said, “Until the presumptive nominee shows he can respect women and minorities and presents a clear plan to protect our homeland, I am going to reserve my endorsement. I hope in the next seven months he can show this because I am not supporting Hillary Clinton."

https://ballotpedia.org/Texas%27_23rd_C ... tion,_2016



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esseff44
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Re: Election Results 11/8/2016

#480

Post by esseff44 » Sun Nov 13, 2016 4:26 am

I think we are going to be hearing this word a lot so we should be clear on the definition:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandate_(politics)

Hillary's margin has grown significantly since Tuesday and the counting continues approximately 7 million more votes to be counted in largely blue areas of California and New York.
Already, at nearly 2 million, her margin is greater than that two former presidents over their opponents...Nixon and Kennedy. '

How can the president who received that margin FEWER votes be considered to have a mandate in a democratic election when the election is not by democratic means? This is a issue that is going to grow. This is going to be more controversial that Gore losing to Bush. That one felt stolen because of the decision of the Supreme court to stop the recount. The vast majority of the world and our own citizens do not understand how the EC works and it has seldom been a big deal. This time I think it is going to be a very big deal. People understand how a person who gets the most votes is the winner.They cannot fathom how a person who gets the most votes does not win. It does not compute. This will not give Clinton standing in a court of law but it is certainly going to give her standing in the court of public opinion and in the eyes of her supporters. '

How many more votes more than an opponent must a candidate get before the mandate is denied to the non-democratically elected and wildly unpopular and incompeten opponent.?



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Re: Election Results 11/8/2016

#481

Post by Mikedunford » Sun Nov 13, 2016 4:48 am

Is there a link for the 2 million number, or an updated number for votes left to count? I've been tracking results on the NY Times site, and while they've been showing a steady increase in her numbers, as more come in, they've only got her up by about 500K.


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Re: Election Results 11/8/2016

#482

Post by esseff44 » Sun Nov 13, 2016 5:48 am

Mikedunford wrote:Is there a link for the 2 million number, or an updated number for votes left to count? I've been tracking results on the NY Times site, and while they've been showing a steady increase in her numbers, as more come in, they've only got her up by about 500K.
http://www.latimes.com/politics/essenti ... story.html

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hil ... 21bbc91bbc

HuffPo article est. it's up to 1.8 million on Saturday and this is now Sunday. That's nearly 2 million if it's growing that much. If California has 4 million or so left, what does that amount to if proportional to the already counted votes. Over 2 million at least.



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Re: Election Results 11/8/2016

#483

Post by Volkonski » Sun Nov 13, 2016 9:04 am

TollandRCR wrote:Somehow there are relatively small farms on the North Fork of Long Island that earn a living for their owners. These farms operate in a benign environment compared to the arid plains of the West; I doubt that their success can be duplicated where some of the greatest pain and resentment is found. However, is there a lesson to be learned from what Volkonski has told us about?
The North Fork's farm situation is very unusual. There is very little farm land left on Long Island. Most of that is on or adjacent to the North Fork. Being a long island the situation here is different from a main land population center. There a ring of rural area surrounds the population center. People can go out in all directions for a rural getaway. On Long Island they can only go east unless they want to go thru New York City. Going thru NYC is too much for day trips, too much traffic and too many expensive tolls.

Even out here farming might have disappeared if it were not for the wine. Oenophiles swarm out here by the thousands. They buy not only $40 a bottle wine but fancy food to have with it. A nice day out including limo, lunch, wine and food that you take home to dine on that evening compares favorably in price to dinner at a better NY restaurant. You get some sightseeing in and can show your children what a cow looks like. ;)

There are about 8 million people in Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens and LI, plenty of potential customers for ~50 wineries and ~30 farms.


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Re: Election Results 11/8/2016

#484

Post by AgentOrangeTabby » Sun Nov 13, 2016 11:37 am

Slim Cognito wrote:
Jocelyn9596 wrote:
AgentOrangeTabby wrote:
Yep, how will he explain either his policies' failure or his failure to enact them as promised without Democrats' mendacity to blame? Trumplicans now expect BIG change from their guy, per his BIG promises. What happens when one by one he either fails to deliver or inevitably delivers only fucked-up change? Following tonight's 3% USDs drop, within moments, how many billions has he already wiped from the US economy?

Now I really foresee the Republican Party splintering pending congressional reaction to Trump administration ludicrousness. Will it be complicit in dismantling the US economy, credit & credibility, or will it take on one of its own? Which is why I bet at least a few congressional republicans feel a little ambivalent tonight about such a triumphant GOP sweep in the party's current condition. Because how does a party by now so defined by opposition start crafting actual policy, especially under such enormous expectations of unrealistic & unbridled success?

For reasons I can't articulate better than that, Im surprised to feel faintly equanimous about the outcome, sensing a long-term silver lining in it all for progressive prerogatives (blithely assuming the damage we're in for isn't irrecoverable). After years & years of hysterical GOP, fear-mongering, petty nit-picking, sabotaging & draconian chicken littling, maybe it's like swing voters have figured, 'Fucking enough already; now show us YOU can do better.' And representative democracy means respecting the majority's prerogative to be stupid, even when it approaches self-sabotage. White America is still rapidly shrinking, and as an RN I've witnessed how impressively the dying can rally as the approaching end picks up speed. Today's outcome heralds conservative America's final chance to prove ideological viability in a crowded world and post-industrial domestic economy.

And when it inevitably bombs that chance, I just :pray: enough of America's foundation remains intact enough for rebuilding her to be worth it.
Trump practically came out and promised them no change whatsoever that would benefit them when he announced Giuliani as Attorney General and Gingrich as Secretary of State! How fucking ignorant can these people be? Obviously far more than I had ever believed. I really didn't think we had such a high number of bigoted, backwards people in this country.
How long will they give Trump, the magic man, to return their jobs, build the wall, deport millions (oh wait, Preibus is already walking that one back) and grow the military? Will they blame Trump or blame Ryan (or whomever) for not giving him the go-ahead? How long will they wait for their great new health care plan before realizing the republicans never could put one together that didn't look pretty much like Obamacare?
:yeah:

The Heritage Institue Proposal Obamacare's fatal shortcoming is omitting any government option to regulate prices & premium hikes Oh, the Lions, Tigers & Socialist Bears!) But what else to expect from a 'bipartisan' Legislative ass kiss corporate America?

Whattya wanna bet Obama now kicking himself for not recruiting congressional support when he has it his first two years to go whole-hog Government Takeover by enacting Medicare or at LEAST a government option for all?

But I forgive Obama's retrospective naivety in assuming his original coalition was any deeper than wide. Which comprises the ONLY silver lining for us now: Like Mean Girls, today's American electorate is brutally fickle, critical, demanding, impatient, and just itching for a scapegoat - for everything from its latest layoff to expanding waistline, the shocking music kids these days listen to its own shitty attitudes about EVERYTHING, which is Trump's problem now.

Unfortunately - as his election confirms - the electorate also forgetful & uninformed, with unrealistic expectations so no matter how bad the next 4 years civil, economic & diplomatic bounce, its broken pendulum will keep swinging far right-left center-far right-left-center until some seismic civil or demographic event (further immigrant influx, education reform, voter rights reform) recalibrates it.

Which is why the Obama era's Big Lesson needs to inform all self-reform going forward:

Fuck Bipartisan Compromise (because America forgetful like a brain patient) and Seize the Fucking Bull When Handed It. Because outcomes campaign for themselves.


"I meant," said Ipslore bitterly, "what is there in this world that truly makes living worthwhile?"

Death thought about it. "CATS," he said eventually. "CATS ARE NICE."

~Terry Pratchett's Sourcery

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Re: Election Results 11/8/2016

#485

Post by Mikedunford » Sun Nov 13, 2016 12:27 pm

esseff44 wrote:
Mikedunford wrote:Is there a link for the 2 million number, or an updated number for votes left to count? I've been tracking results on the NY Times site, and while they've been showing a steady increase in her numbers, as more come in, they've only got her up by about 500K.
http://www.latimes.com/politics/essenti ... story.html

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hil ... 21bbc91bbc

HuffPo article est. it's up to 1.8 million on Saturday and this is now Sunday. That's nearly 2 million if it's growing that much. If California has 4 million or so left, what does that amount to if proportional to the already counted votes. Over 2 million at least.
I hope that you're right, but I think it's an area for cautious optimism. As far as I can tell, the links you posted - including the 2 million - are estimates. For example, the HuffPo article you linked does not source the 1.8 million number to any official source, instead linking it to a NY Times article that explicitly refers to the popular vote lead as an estimate. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/11/opini ... .html?_r=1

Meanwhile, the NY Times results page has been updated frequently since the election, seems to roughly match reports from official sources, and only has her current lead at ~0.5 million. Too, also, the initial popular vote estimates seem to be based on her roughly matching the Obama-Romney percentages in the high-population Democratic strongholds. That presumption may not have been entirely safe. She's outperforming Obama a bit on the West Coast, but under-performing on the East Coast - her current percentage of the NY vote, in particular, is quite a bit off from Obama's 2012 share. It's too soon to tell if that's going to ultimately even out.


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Re: Election Results 11/8/2016

#486

Post by esseff44 » Sun Nov 13, 2016 12:36 pm

Mike, are you telling me that we have been mislead by the media and misleading headlines? :shock: :eek2: :swoon: :blackeye: :crying: :brickwallsmall:

(yes, you are right and we need to wait for the official results. But nobody is going to be happy with where we come out. The Menace will still claim the majority is being unfair to him although he has complained in exactly the same language until he won. Can you deny the underlying unfairness of minority rule? Or can you argue that a popular vote is less fair than the EC in our current geographical /demographic reality? Does fairness matter? )



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Re: Election Results 11/8/2016

#487

Post by AgentOrangeTabby » Sun Nov 13, 2016 1:24 pm

Dr. Caligari wrote:
esseff44 wrote:There will be no Democratic wave in 2018. It is structurally nearly impossible. The Congressional Districts are engineered to make sure the GOP stays in charge of their districts in spite of Dems overall numeric superiority. And Dems do not vote in midterms anyway.You can depend on the red state folks keeping it for a good long while. Yes, the wheel will turn but I doubt that I will see it in my lifetime.
The same structural barriers existed in 2006, when there was a huge Democratic wave in the midterm elections. All that is necessary is another serious recession, and Trump's trade policies, if he follows them, will almost guarantee that.
True, but...
And Dems do not vote in midterms anyway.
And after the next 4 years of orgiastic Red State gerrymandering, it won't matter if they started, unless at rates only seismic demographic shifts or near-revolutionary discontent could inspire.

************

Not to get all apocalyptic like over at DU right now (which is just one big circular firing squad of former Bernie supporters), but can't help but wonder how bad it will have to get for the blue collar labor coalition responsible for this outcome to finally get that Red State ideology fucks 'me every time?

> That they just installed into power the same corporate America they're pissed Hillary sold speeches to?
> That when they vote for America's 'job creators,' all that extra capital winds up overseas in either cayman accounts or developing country labor?
> That isolationist policies only imprisons ourselves in a world of 7 billion which of which were 2%?
> That we need the rest of global probably more than it needs us?
> That the cost of trump's magic tariffs would be years of Soviet-type supply-demand unheavals as domestic economy plunges into recession? Not to mention $1,000 American-made DVD players they better fucking buy because the rest of the world will still be buying cheap Sanyos from China? And when that $1,000 player breaks within 6mos down because American manufacturing still staggering up the production curve, Fuck you, buy another & like it while the rest of the world keeps enjoying cheap Sonys & Sanyos from China, because you're Making America Great Again and now have no choice.

But woah, hang on, wait...I thought ours was the party of government tyranny over market freedom and consumer choice and getting out of business' way?!?! I'm now so confuzzled. :confused:


"I meant," said Ipslore bitterly, "what is there in this world that truly makes living worthwhile?"

Death thought about it. "CATS," he said eventually. "CATS ARE NICE."

~Terry Pratchett's Sourcery

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Re: Election Results 11/8/2016

#488

Post by Mikedunford » Sun Nov 13, 2016 1:53 pm

esseff44 wrote:Mike, are you telling me that we have been mislead by the media and misleading headlines? :shock: :eek2: :swoon: :blackeye: :crying: :brickwallsmall:

(yes, you are right and we need to wait for the official results. But nobody is going to be happy with where we come out. The Menace will still claim the majority is being unfair to him although he has complained in exactly the same language until he won. Can you deny the underlying unfairness of minority rule? Or can you argue that a popular vote is less fair than the EC in our current geographical /demographic reality? Does fairness matter? )
For me, this has nothing to do with fairness. It's purely about trying to identify everything that went wrong. And I think that's important to do as soon as possible, because it's going to make it easier for me to figure out where I can best work to help going forward, and to figure out who to support in various primaries going forward.


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Re: Election Results 11/8/2016

#489

Post by Plutodog » Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:09 pm

esseff44 wrote:
Plutodog wrote:Lookit all these local marijuana measures in Oregon!

http://gov.oregonlive.com/election/2016 ... a-results/


What does it all boil down to, Plutodog? It looks like all the pro cannabis measures passed and all the bans failed. Is that right?
For me, the main picture was that we WERE voting on marijuana as legal issues, local taxes on them and whether this or that local jurisdiction would allow marijuana retail or growing businesses within their jurisdictions. I did not tote up what all won and where. But it appears that there was a combination of local retail taxes passing and some areas allowing retail and some not. My town did not -- and according to the ballot, that means we will not receive our cut of statewide tax revenue. But the jurisdictions that are allowing everything are adequate to serve the demand, as best I can tell. So Aumsville citizens just shot themselves in the arse. As did a few others.


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Re: Election Results 11/8/2016

#490

Post by Whatever4 » Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:29 pm

I sat out the election returns coverage. Well, slept it out. Illness. But was there something hinky about the exit polls? Asking because it came up in a conversation.


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Re: Election Results 11/8/2016

#491

Post by esseff44 » Sun Nov 13, 2016 5:04 pm

I am guessing that the exit polls are done the same way and by the same outfits that do the polling before the election. The only difference is that it is supposed to be polling people who actually voted...or claimed they did.



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Re: Election Results 11/8/2016

#492

Post by TollandRCR » Sun Nov 13, 2016 5:27 pm

Methodology
Data for 2016 were collected by Edison Research for the National Election Pool, a consortium of ABC News, The Associated Press, CBSNews, CNN, Fox News and NBC News. The voter survey is based on questionnaires completed by 24,537 voters leaving 350 voting places throughout the United States on Election Day including 4,398 telephone interviews with early and absentee voters.

In 2012, 2008 and 2004, the exit poll was conducted by Edison/Mitofsky; in 1996 and 2000 by Voter News Services; in 1992 by Voter Research and Surveys; and in earlier years by The New York Times and CBS News.

Direct comparisons from year to year should factor in differences in how questions were asked. Race and sex were determined by interviewers in surveys before 1984. Independent or third-party candidates are not shown.

Population scaling is representative of the number of voters in each category.
Exit polling absentee voters has been a standing problem since Warren Mitofsky invented exit polling. Polling early voters is easier but would be extremely expensive when voters can vote weeks ahead of time. Polling mail voters is as difficult as polling absentee voters. The telephone polling was intended to address these problems.

The questionnaire is long, much longer than Mitofsky would have permitted.


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Re: Election Results 11/8/2016

#493

Post by tek » Sun Nov 13, 2016 5:46 pm

not sure where to put this, but it plopped into my brain while I was reading this thread, so here it is:

I understand why polls are of interest to CAMPAIGNS..

I do not understand why polls should be of interest to THE ELECTORATE unless we're a bunch of lemmings.

That is all.


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Re: Election Results 11/8/2016

#494

Post by Sugar Magnolia » Sun Nov 13, 2016 7:54 pm

tek wrote:not sure where to put this, but it plopped into my brain while I was reading this thread, so here it is:

I understand why polls are of interest to CAMPAIGNS..

I do not understand why polls should be of interest to THE ELECTORATE unless we're a bunch of lemmings.

That is all.
I tried, and failed, to make that same point a week ago. I just don't understand the obsession with the polls and every fraction of a percentage point up or down.



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Re: Election Results 11/8/2016

#495

Post by Reality Check » Sun Nov 13, 2016 8:02 pm

Sugar Magnolia wrote: I tried, and failed, to make that same point a week ago. I just don't understand the obsession with the polls and every fraction of a percentage point up or down.
Well the media obsessed with polls so they were kind of hard to ignore. The only thing that got more coverage was that Hillary had an email server or something, that and every word the orange baboon uttered.


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Re: Election Results 11/8/2016

#496

Post by esseff44 » Sun Nov 13, 2016 11:33 pm

SNL rubs it in.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SHG0ezLiVGc



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Re: Election Results 11/8/2016

#497

Post by Sam the Centipede » Mon Nov 14, 2016 4:00 am

Reality Check wrote:
Sugar Magnolia wrote: I tried, and failed, to make that same point a week ago. I just don't understand the obsession with the polls and every fraction of a percentage point up or down.
Well the media obsessed with polls so they were kind of hard to ignore. The only thing that got more coverage was that Hillary had an email server or something, that and every word the orange baboon uttered.
I guess part of the obsession is that an election is a competition that gets covered like a sportball game. With sportball, you don't know who will ultimately win the game but you can clearly see the position on the fifteenth green, the sixtieth lap, the fourth quarter, the eighth inning, etc. Without polls, there's nothing comparable for election coverage, just stuff like "X went to Y and made a speech about Z" and where's the fun in that?

The obsession here about miniscule poll movements baffled me. Boys with shiny toys maybe.

The results of the Bundy trial and the Trump election have rather deflated this group's self-congratulatory view of its special insight into the workings of the world. There would have been lots of happy confirmation bias led gloating had the election results aligned with favorite polls', pollsters' or pundits' predictions but the actual outturn demonstrates that accurate predictions are often bad - but lucky - guesses too.



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Re: Election Results 11/8/2016

#498

Post by esseff44 » Mon Nov 14, 2016 3:30 pm

HuffPo has added a correction about the uncounted ballots. They say their numbers were estimates. HuffPo is notorious for their misleading headlines.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hil ... 21bbc91bbc

So, what are the new numbers and how do we find out?



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Re: Election Results 11/8/2016

#499

Post by Mikedunford » Mon Nov 14, 2016 4:08 pm

esseff44 wrote:HuffPo has added a correction about the uncounted ballots. They say their numbers were estimates. HuffPo is notorious for their misleading headlines.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hil ... 21bbc91bbc

So, what are the new numbers and how do we find out?
I've been using the NY Times throughout this discussion; the NY Times is (as far as I can tell) updating from official sources. Her current lead is ~700K/0.5%.
http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/president

Based on my skim through of some of the states, I expect that her lead will continue to grow some, but I'd be pleasantly surprised by anything over 1%.


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Re: Election Results 11/8/2016

#500

Post by esseff44 » Mon Nov 14, 2016 4:36 pm

Well, If you GOOGLE for final election results... BEWARE!

Google’s top news link for ‘final election results’ goes to a fake news site with false numbers

That's the headline for a WaPo story I can't link to but you can search for it. When you google for final election results which id before I found the WaPo story about the fake site, I had already noticed the top link to a site that links to another fake site to put up numbers showingTrump won the popular vote and not Clinton.

The Alt-Right psyops machine is already taking over the internet. No one is prepared for what they are doing. This stuff scares me as much as anything. It makes me want to scream! We have got to do something and fast.



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