Rating the Polls

Post Reply
User avatar
Sterngard Friegen
Posts: 43902
Joined: Wed Aug 05, 2009 12:32 am
Location: Over the drawbridge

Rating the Polls

#1

Post by Sterngard Friegen » Thu Jun 02, 2016 5:57 pm

FiveThirtyEight.com has an interesting piece on the reliability and skews of the polls. Of the very large number, only 13 rate A or A+ (5 in the latter category). Rasmussen is a C+. And it skews Republican very strongly.

I'm putting this here so we can refer to it when we get polls that seem, shall we say. biased. Like Rasmussen most of the time, until election eve.



User avatar
BillTheCat
Posts: 4496
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2012 4:25 pm

Re: Rating the Polls

#2

Post by BillTheCat » Thu Jun 02, 2016 6:14 pm

Sterngard Friegen wrote:FiveThirtyEight.com has an interesting piece on the reliability and skews of the polls. Of the very large number, only 13 rate A or A+ (5 in the latter category). Rasmussen is a C+. And it skews Republican very strongly.

I'm putting this here so we can refer to it when we get polls that seem, shall we say. biased. Like Rasmussen most of the time, until election eve.
538 is the only - ONLY - source I trust on these matters. Everything else is unproven noise.


'But I don't want to go among mad people,' said Alice. 'Oh, you can't help that,' said the cat. 'We're all mad here.'
-Lewis Carroll

User avatar
Slartibartfast
Posts: 6983
Joined: Mon Aug 10, 2009 2:52 pm

Re: Rating the Polls

#3

Post by Slartibartfast » Thu Jun 02, 2016 6:21 pm

BillTheCat wrote:
Sterngard Friegen wrote:FiveThirtyEight.com has an interesting piece on the reliability and skews of the polls. Of the very large number, only 13 rate A or A+ (5 in the latter category). Rasmussen is a C+. And it skews Republican very strongly.

I'm putting this here so we can refer to it when we get polls that seem, shall we say. biased. Like Rasmussen most of the time, until election eve.
538 is the only - ONLY - source I trust on these matters. Everything else is unproven noise.
For what it's worth, I trust the Princeton Electoral Consortium much more than 538. I believe that their methodology is better.

http://election.princeton.edu/2016/05/3 ... argin-4-2/


"Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat."
---Sun Tzu (quoting Thomas Jefferson)
nam-myoho-renge-kyo---Thomas Jefferson (quoting Slartibartfast)

User avatar
Dan1100
Posts: 2530
Joined: Sat Oct 18, 2014 3:41 pm

Re: Rating the Polls

#4

Post by Dan1100 » Thu Jun 02, 2016 6:25 pm

An interesting website is http://www.electoral-vote.com/ .

They aren't doing it yet, but in past elections, they compile and compare all the polls, creating a sort of "metapoll". Interestingly, last time around they provide the results both with and without Rasmussen because of their fairly obvious Republican bias.


"I asked Osama bin Laden and he very strongly said that he had nothing to do with crashing airplanes into the World Trade Center and Pentagon. I don't see any reason it would be Al-Qaeda."

-George W. Bush

User avatar
ZekeB
Posts: 14598
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2009 10:07 pm
Location: Northwest part of Semi Blue State

Re: Rating the Polls

#5

Post by ZekeB » Thu Jun 02, 2016 6:37 pm

He who pays for the poll gets a poll in his favor.


Ano, jsou opravdové. - Stormy Daniels

User avatar
Sterngard Friegen
Posts: 43902
Joined: Wed Aug 05, 2009 12:32 am
Location: Over the drawbridge

Re: Rating the Polls

#6

Post by Sterngard Friegen » Thu Jun 02, 2016 7:12 pm

ZekeB wrote:He who pays for the poll gets a poll in his favor.
Not always true for internal polling. Sometimes you get bad news. You know what tabs you want to keep tabs on :mrgreen: and you know your strengths and weaknesses, so you know what's happening.

Unless, of course, you're Mitt Rmoney. He had too much money to lose. So his internal pollsters made sure he was happy. Right up until 7:01 PM CST on election night.



User avatar
listeme
Posts: 5297
Joined: Tue Jul 14, 2009 11:09 am

Re: Rating the Polls

#7

Post by listeme » Thu Jun 02, 2016 7:12 pm

I like Sam and Nate both -- slightly different approaches. I like Benchmarkpolitics, which is demographics-based.

As far as the pollsters, I agree strongly with 538's ranking.

I also really like this topic. Thanks, Stern :lovestruck:


We're used to being told it's our fault that men don't listen to us.

User avatar
NotaPerson
Posts: 3050
Joined: Mon May 18, 2015 9:33 pm

Re: Rating the Polls

#8

Post by NotaPerson » Thu Jun 02, 2016 7:27 pm

Sterngard Friegen wrote:
ZekeB wrote:He who pays for the poll gets a poll in his favor.
Not always true for internal polling. Sometimes you get bad news. You know what tabs you want to keep tabs on :mrgreen: and you know your strengths and weaknesses, so you know what's happening.

Unless, of course, you're Mitt Rmoney. He had too much money to lose. So his internal pollsters made sure he was happy. Right up until 7:01 PM CST on election night.
I'll never forget the interview NPR did with Karl Rove a few weeks before a presidential election (it must have been 2008 or 2012, I forget which). Karl said something to the effect that the data shows the Republican candidate is going to win, and the reporter correctly pointed out that the polls were clearly showing the Republican would lose. Karl responded with (and this is nearly a quote): You have your data, but I'm looking at the REAL data.

:lol:


Am I being detained?

User avatar
Family Liberty Patriot
Posts: 4486
Joined: Wed Aug 20, 2014 1:23 pm
Location: Southern Orlystan
Occupation: Czar of All the Russias

Re: Rating the Polls

#9

Post by Family Liberty Patriot » Thu Jun 02, 2016 7:37 pm

Though it was, in fact, NPR, and Rove is, in fact, a blowhard asshole, that exchange with NPR's Robert Siegel was in 2006, just as the Republicans were about to lose both the House and the Senate, Rove's THE math notwithstanding:
SIEGEL: I'm looking at all the same polls that you are looking at.

ROVE: No, you are not. I'm looking at 68 polls a week for candidates for the US House and US Senate, and Governor and you may be looking at 4-5 public polls a week that talk attitudes nationally.

SIEGEL: I don't want to have you to call races...

ROVE: I'm looking at all of these Robert and adding them up. I add up to a Republican Senate and Republican House. You may end up with a different math but you are entitled to your math and I'm entitled to THE math.

SIEGEL: I don't know if we're entitled to a different math but your...

ROVE: I said THE math.
It's worth noting that people still listen to this asshole.


"The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness."

John Kenneth Galbraith (1908 - 2006)

User avatar
Sterngard Friegen
Posts: 43902
Joined: Wed Aug 05, 2009 12:32 am
Location: Over the drawbridge

Re: Rating the Polls

#10

Post by Sterngard Friegen » Thu Jun 02, 2016 7:40 pm

listeme wrote:I like Sam and Nate both -- slightly different approaches. I like Benchmarkpolitics, which is demographics-based.

As far as the pollsters, I agree strongly with 538's ranking.

I also really like this topic. Thanks, Stern :lovestruck:
:notworthy:



User avatar
NotaPerson
Posts: 3050
Joined: Mon May 18, 2015 9:33 pm

Re: Rating the Polls

#11

Post by NotaPerson » Thu Jun 02, 2016 8:03 pm

Family Liberty Patriot wrote:Though it was, in fact, NPR, and Rove is, in fact, a blowhard asshole, that exchange with NPR's Robert Siegel was in 2006, just as the Republicans were about to lose both the House and the Senate, Rove's THE math notwithstanding:
SIEGEL: I'm looking at all the same polls that you are looking at.

ROVE: No, you are not. I'm looking at 68 polls a week for candidates for the US House and US Senate, and Governor and you may be looking at 4-5 public polls a week that talk attitudes nationally.

SIEGEL: I don't want to have you to call races...

ROVE: I'm looking at all of these Robert and adding them up. I add up to a Republican Senate and Republican House. You may end up with a different math but you are entitled to your math and I'm entitled to THE math.

SIEGEL: I don't know if we're entitled to a different math but your...

ROVE: I said THE math.
It's worth noting that people still listen to this asshole.
Well, I'm simply amazed that you not only remembered this, but was able to pull it up from deep within the interwebz.

:worship:


Am I being detained?

User avatar
Family Liberty Patriot
Posts: 4486
Joined: Wed Aug 20, 2014 1:23 pm
Location: Southern Orlystan
Occupation: Czar of All the Russias

Re: Rating the Polls

#12

Post by Family Liberty Patriot » Thu Jun 02, 2016 8:19 pm

Well, I laughed my fat ass off, I can tell you. It was a memorable night.


"The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness."

John Kenneth Galbraith (1908 - 2006)

Post Reply

Return to “Election 2016”