Predictions by the gambling market

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rajah
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Predictions by the gambling market

#1

Post by rajah » Fri Dec 11, 2015 7:10 pm

I have for a long time followed the gambling markets as a predictor of the election results and they have been pretty good so far. Here is an article by a professional gambler who makes money from the US elections.
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/ ... cts-213430
The attention and research lavished on your presidential race by overseas betters would astonish American observers. During the last presidential election in 2012, Betfair, the world's biggest peer-to-peer betting exchange (for which I write as a freelance political analyst), saw a record $200 million traded on the main “Next President” market
A site which shows all the various markets is
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us- ... 016/winner
The writer suggests that at this time that Hilary Clinton will win in 2016 with 54% of the vote. this seems to be borne out by all the betting markets. We are , of course, a fair way out from the election and things could change dramatically but these results have been consistent for some time but I would like to point out that even a 200 to 1 long shot can occasionally win a big race.
The author makes the point, that because of the vast amount of information available on the American scene, that there a much greater confidence in the result than gambling on sports.
Regards .........Dick



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Chilidog
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Re: Predictions by the gambling market

#2

Post by Chilidog » Sat Dec 12, 2015 12:27 pm

The Iowa Electronic Markets are good.

The winner take all is a consistent 60/40 split.

https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/gra ... 16_WTA.cfm



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TollandRCR
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Re: Predictions by the gambling market

#3

Post by TollandRCR » Sat Dec 12, 2015 12:33 pm

Hillary winning by only 54% could worry me. I can imagine that occurring in a three-way race, with (say) Romney or Rubio on the Republican ticket and Trump on a third-party ticket. There will always be some 2% voting for other parties to the left and right. A 54% victory would not be so bad then. But a Clinton-Trump confrontation that yields only a 54% victory for sanity scares me.


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Chilidog
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Re: Predictions by the gambling market

#4

Post by Chilidog » Sat Dec 12, 2015 12:42 pm

54% is consistent with the IEM vote share market

https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres16_Quotes.html



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Sterngard Friegen
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Re: Predictions by the gambling market

#5

Post by Sterngard Friegen » Sat Dec 12, 2015 1:35 pm

Tollie -- 55%-45% is considered, in politics, to be pretty close a landslide. I believe that Hillary Clinton will receive around 56% of the vote and 320 or so electoral votes. My biggest concern remains whether the Dems can regain control of the House. (The Senate is a forgone conclusion.) If Drumpf keeps up it will be very very close.



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TollandRCR
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Re: Predictions by the gambling market

#6

Post by TollandRCR » Sat Dec 12, 2015 2:03 pm

Sterngard Friegen wrote:Tollie -- 55%-45% is considered, in politics, to be pretty close a landslide. I believe that Hillary Clinton will receive around 56% of the vote and 320 or so electoral votes. My biggest concern remains whether the Dems can regain control of the House. (The Senate is a forgone conclusion.) If Drumpf keeps up it will be very very close.
The thought that 46% of the electorate would favor Drumpf is what bothers me. That would be a disgusting outcome. It would be acceptable with a Romney or Rubio race.

I would sacrifice any number of chickens to ensure that the Democrats win back the Senate and a number of much larger fowl to ensure that they win back the House, but the "...but I love my Representative" syndrome and gerrymandering make me doubt the latter outcome even with a Republican ticket led by a clown. At last I understand why kids tend to fear clowns.


“The truth is, we know so little about life, we don’t really know what the good news is and what the bad news is.” Kurt Vonnegut

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Re: Predictions by the gambling market

#7

Post by Sterngard Friegen » Sat Dec 12, 2015 2:09 pm

Many of the Republican Party votes will simply be votes against Hillary Clinton, not votes for one of the clowns.



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Slartibartfast
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Re: Predictions by the gambling market

#8

Post by Slartibartfast » Sat Dec 12, 2015 2:23 pm

NO ONE* is predicting Hillary will win with 54% of the vote, they are predicting that there is a 54% chance that she will win.

The betting markets are probably the most reliable odds this far out, but still need to be taken with a major grain (or maybe a boulder) of salt. If you want to speculate on the betting markets (looking for arbitrage opportunities), then you should use 538 as a starting place (once they start following the horserace) and make your own, proprietary, additions to their model since their model is public knowledge which means any arbitrage opportunity that it predicts is public knowledge which means that the markets will correct quickly ending the opportunity.

If you want to know the odds of Hillary becoming President, check out the Princeton Electoral Consortium once the candidates of the major parties are set. They will be the most accurate (that's what the science says anyway).

* No one worth listening to, anyway.

Anyone making a prediction right now regarding the voting percentages has no scientific basis for that prediction and should be ignored in my opinion.


"Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat."
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nam-myoho-renge-kyo---Thomas Jefferson (quoting Slartibartfast)

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TollandRCR
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Re: Predictions by the gambling market

#9

Post by TollandRCR » Sat Dec 12, 2015 2:28 pm

Thanks for the clarification. I "think" the odds are higher than 54% for Hillary against the Klown. I would put the IEM right behind the Princeton Consortium for usefulness. InTrade was a lot of fun.


“The truth is, we know so little about life, we don’t really know what the good news is and what the bad news is.” Kurt Vonnegut

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gatsby
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Re: Predictions by the gambling market

#10

Post by gatsby » Sat Dec 12, 2015 2:33 pm

Git your Trump specials!
20151212-142723.png
Edit: The odds should be read as: Bet $100 to receive the amount listed, plus the return of your $100 bet.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.



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gatsby
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Re: Predictions by the gambling market

#11

Post by gatsby » Sat Dec 12, 2015 2:38 pm

Based on the odds, the favorite party tickets are:

Rep: Trump/Rubio

Dem: Clinton/Julian Castro



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Slartibartfast
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Re: Predictions by the gambling market

#12

Post by Slartibartfast » Sat Dec 12, 2015 3:19 pm

TollandRCR wrote:Thanks for the clarification. I "think" the odds are higher than 54% for Hillary against the Klown. I would put the IEM right behind the Princeton Consortium for usefulness. InTrade was a lot of fun.
You're welcome. I hope the odds are higher than 54% and do think that there are intangibles in this race that seriously screw up predictions, especially this early. Once it's a horserace amongst the several states for electoral votes, scientifically supportable predictions will be available, but there aren't enough (or any) of the right sorts of polls being done right now for them to work.

As for usefulness, the IEM is (are?*) useful for many reasons (and fascinating too also), but I take it more as a collective "gut feeling" than a prediction. It isn't a prediction any more than the current value of any futures market.

My rule of thumb is that if it isn't being tracked and no one is validating its accuracy then it isn't a useful prediction (I'm a predictive modeler so you will have to excuse me for being a little picky about points like this---plus being a mathematician is all about semantic precision too also).



* Does Princess Foofypants answer questions on grammar too also?


"Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat."
---Sun Tzu (quoting Thomas Jefferson)
nam-myoho-renge-kyo---Thomas Jefferson (quoting Slartibartfast)

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Slartibartfast
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Re: Predictions by the gambling market

#13

Post by Slartibartfast » Sat Dec 12, 2015 3:21 pm

gatsby wrote:Based on the odds, the favorite party tickets are:

Rep: Trump/Rubio

Dem: Clinton/Julian Castro
I wouldn't have a problem with Castro as VP.


"Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat."
---Sun Tzu (quoting Thomas Jefferson)
nam-myoho-renge-kyo---Thomas Jefferson (quoting Slartibartfast)

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Re: Predictions by the gambling market

#14

Post by SueDB » Sat Dec 12, 2015 3:24 pm

Slartibartfast wrote:
gatsby wrote:Based on the odds, the favorite party tickets are:

Rep: Trump/Rubio

Dem: Clinton/Julian Castro
I wouldn't have a problem with Castro as VP.
It would really put the pinch on Hispanic Heritage folks who belong to the GOP. Especially since the GOP has basically told them to pack up their tortillas and go back to Mexico....except many of them had ancestors here long before the onslaught of Europeans/Americans.

So, what group is the GOP trying to piss off this weekend on the Sunday RWNJ Whine Fests????


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Remember, Orly NEVAH disappoints!

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Re: Predictions by the gambling market

#15

Post by magdalen77 » Sat Dec 12, 2015 3:59 pm

Slartibartfast wrote:NO ONE* is predicting Hillary will win with 54% of the vote, they are predicting that there is a 54% chance that she will win.

The betting markets are probably the most reliable odds this far out, but still need to be taken with a major grain (or maybe a boulder) of salt. If you want to speculate on the betting markets (looking for arbitrage opportunities), then you should use 538 as a starting place (once they start following the horserace) and make your own, proprietary, additions to their model since their model is public knowledge which means any arbitrage opportunity that it predicts is public knowledge which means that the markets will correct quickly ending the opportunity.

If you want to know the odds of Hillary becoming President, check out the Princeton Electoral Consortium once the candidates of the major parties are set. They will be the most accurate (that's what the science says anyway).

* No one worth listening to, anyway.

Anyone making a prediction right now regarding the voting percentages has no scientific basis for that prediction and should be ignored in my opinion.
Actually 538 was what calmed me down before the last election, when between some of my RWNJ co-workers and the MSM love of portraying the election as an enormously close horse race I was terrified about a Romney presidency. They spoke math. I respect math.



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Chilidog
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Re: Predictions by the gambling market

#16

Post by Chilidog » Sat Dec 12, 2015 4:13 pm

Slartibartfast wrote:NO ONE* is predicting Hillary will win with 54% of the vote, they are predicting that there is a 54% chance that she will win.

Actually, no.

As I was saying the IEM has two 2016 presidential markets.

Hillary has 60% of the winner take all market. That means that the predicted odds of her wining are 60%.

She has 52% of the vote share market. That means people are betting on her to win 52% of the vote.

http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/markets/pres16.html



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Slartibartfast
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Re: Predictions by the gambling market

#17

Post by Slartibartfast » Sat Dec 12, 2015 5:00 pm

Chilldog,

Apparently I didn't read the article carefully enough. So, to revise my remarks: 60% odds of winning and a 52% number which is pretty much meaningless (unless you can find an arbitrage opportunity).

Maggie,

You really should check out the PEC when things get going---that's where the real math is (it was much more reassuring last cycle too also, when 538 had President Obama at around 70%, PEC had him near 98%). The PEC is using much stronger methodology, in my opinion.


"Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat."
---Sun Tzu (quoting Thomas Jefferson)
nam-myoho-renge-kyo---Thomas Jefferson (quoting Slartibartfast)

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magdalen77
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Re: Predictions by the gambling market

#18

Post by magdalen77 » Sat Dec 12, 2015 5:58 pm

Slartibartfast wrote:Chilldog,

Apparently I didn't read the article carefully enough. So, to revise my remarks: 60% odds of winning and a 52% number which is pretty much meaningless (unless you can find an arbitrage opportunity).

Maggie,

You really should check out the PEC when things get going---that's where the real math is (it was much more reassuring last cycle too also, when 538 had President Obama at around 70%, PEC had him near 98%). The PEC is using much stronger methodology, in my opinion.
I will next time. When I came across 538 I was just so relieved that I stopped there. At the time I guess I'd spent too much time listening to the MSM trying to make the race exciting by blathering about how close it was and my FOX influenced co-workers who thought it was all in the bag. 538 was like a fresh drink of water with its explanations as to why the president was most likely to win. It wasn't partisan, it was math and made sense.



rajah
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Re: Predictions by the gambling market

#19

Post by rajah » Sat Dec 12, 2015 10:01 pm

I followed 538 and the betting markets in 2012 so I was not surprised at the results. I did ring a friend of mine in the US to commiserate and they were utterly devastated. They, like your work mates, were thoroughly convinced of a Romney win.
Regards ..........Dick



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Slartibartfast
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Re: Predictions by the gambling market

#20

Post by Slartibartfast » Sat Dec 12, 2015 10:07 pm

rajah wrote:I followed 538 and the betting markets in 2012 so I was not surprised at the results. I did ring a friend of mine in the US to commiserate and they were utterly devastated. They, like your work mates, were thoroughly convinced of a Romney win.
Regards ..........Dick
On the other hand, I wasn't devastated in 2010 (or 2014) because I read 538 and knew what was coming.


"Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat."
---Sun Tzu (quoting Thomas Jefferson)
nam-myoho-renge-kyo---Thomas Jefferson (quoting Slartibartfast)

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Chilidog
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Re: Predictions by the gambling market

#21

Post by Chilidog » Sun Dec 13, 2015 12:21 am

What's going to happen to the markets if Trumo goes 3rd party?



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Slartibartfast
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Re: Predictions by the gambling market

#22

Post by Slartibartfast » Sun Dec 13, 2015 12:55 am

Chilidog wrote:What's going to happen to the markets if Trumo goes 3rd party?
Bet Clinton.


"Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat."
---Sun Tzu (quoting Thomas Jefferson)
nam-myoho-renge-kyo---Thomas Jefferson (quoting Slartibartfast)

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magdalen77
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Re: Predictions by the gambling market

#23

Post by magdalen77 » Sun Dec 13, 2015 10:31 am

rajah wrote:I followed 538 and the betting markets in 2012 so I was not surprised at the results. I did ring a friend of mine in the US to commiserate and they were utterly devastated. They, like your work mates, were thoroughly convinced of a Romney win.
Regards ..........Dick
I was utterly relieved when I read 538. They explained clearly why the president was going to get re-elected. The MSM might have been reporting the same polls, but it seemed like they'd always slide in more things that made it look like the president and Romney were neck and neck.



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