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A lot at stake for Russia in battle [w/EU] for Ukraine

#351

Post by Addie »

Reuters











Ukraine votes in poll likely to elect pro-West assembly



(Reuters) - War-weary Ukrainians voted on Sunday in an election that is likely to install a pro-Western parliament and strengthen President Petro Poroshenko's mandate to end separatist conflict in the east, but could fuel tension with Russia.



People wrapped up warmly on a cold, clear day to vote in the first parliamentary poll since protests in the capital Kiev last winter forced Moscow-backed leader Viktor Yanukovich to flee and ushered in a pro-Europe leadership under Poroshenko.



In eastern regions controlled by the army, soldiers armed with automatic rifles and wearing bulletproof jackets guarded polling stations under the yellow and blue Ukrainian flag. ...



About 2,000 international observers, including a team of about 800 from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, are in place to monitor polling procedures. Many voters were unable to vote in Crimea and the east, meaning only 423 of parliament's 450 deputies will be elected.



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A lot at stake for Russia in battle [w/EU] for Ukraine

#352

Post by Addie »

Live updates here.
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A lot at stake for Russia in battle [w/EU] for Ukraine

#353

Post by Addie »

Reuters











Ukraine leader wins pro-West mandate but wary of Russia



(Reuters) - Pro-Western parties will dominate Ukraine's parliament after an election handed President Petro Poroshenko a mandate to end a separatist conflict and steer the country further out of Russia's orbit into Europe's mainstream.



Poroshenko planned to start coalition talks on Monday after exit polls and partial results showed most of the groups that were holding up democratic and legal reforms demanded by the European Union had been swept out of parliament on Sunday.



He still faces huge problems: Russia is resisting moves by Kiev to one day join the European Union, a ceasefire is barely holding in the east where government forces have been fighting pro-Russian separatists, and the economy is in dire straits.



Russia's President Vladimir Putin can still influence events, not least as the main backer of the rebels in the east and through Moscow's role as natural gas supplier to Ukraine and the EU.



But with his own bloc and a party led by his ally, Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk, running neck and neck on more than 21 percent support after more than a quarter of votes on party lists were counted, Poroshenko is assured of dominating parliament.






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A lot at stake for Russia in battle [w/EU] for Ukraine

#354

Post by Sterngard Friegen »

Political pundit Orly Taitz will find this a provocative act, justifying her beloved Vladimir Putin to continue his assaults on Ukraine.



Democracy may be messy, but Taitz has no understanding of it. While Ukrainians want to move closer to the west, Taitz wants to turn the United States into her version of the old Soviet Union from which she came.

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A lot at stake for Russia in battle [w/EU] for Ukraine

#355

Post by Scratch »

When the heat's on, Vlad doubles down.



Putin accuses United States of damaging world order



(Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin accused the United States on Friday of endangering global security by imposing a "unilateral diktat" on the rest of the world and shifted blame for the Ukraine crisis onto the West.



In a 40-minute diatribe against the West that was reminiscent of the Cold War and underlined the depth of the rift between Moscow and the West, Putin also denied trying to rebuild the Soviet empire at the expense of Russia's neighbors.



http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/ ... A220141024





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A lot at stake for Russia in battle [w/EU] for Ukraine

#356

Post by Scratch »

Boehner: Bush would have punched Putin in the nose

Davenport, Iowa (CNN)



-- House Speaker John Boehner is trashing President Obama's foreign policy on the campaign trail by talking up someone Republicans have spent years running from: George W. Bush.

"Does anybody think that Vladimir Putin would have gone into Crimea had George W. Bush been president of the United States? No!" Boehner asked, and answered, before a group of Republican volunteers here.

"Even Putin is smart enough to know that Bush would have punched him in the nose in about 10 seconds!" Boehner said to an applauding crowd.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/27/politics/ ... ?hpt=hp_t4



Aaaany second now.....





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A lot at stake for Russia in battle [w/EU] for Ukraine

#357

Post by Roboe »

You mean like Dubya did during the South Ossetia War in the summer of 2008?

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A lot at stake for Russia in battle [w/EU] for Ukraine

#358

Post by Addie »

The Gazette









Fort Carson Troops Will Soon Deploy, 'Supporting Ukraine'



Fort Carson's 4th Infantry Division will lead an American effort to bolster European allies and deter Russian aggression, the Pentagon announced Wednesday.

The post just got a team of soldiers back from Germany where they led a NATO exercise, but the new mission is wider and will last longer.

"This is not going to be a three-week or a month deployment," said a source at the post familiar with the new mission.

The Army hasn't said how long the division troops will be overseas, leaving the deployment indefinite.

U.S. European Command said that a 100-soldier team from the 16,000-soldier division will head to Europe in early 2015 to lead ground forces in "Operation Atlantic 
Resolve."






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A lot at stake for Russia in battle [w/EU] for Ukraine

#359

Post by Volkonski »

Western sanctions are finally beginning to bite. The drop in the price of oil is also hurting. Not a good time to be a Russian investor.





Russia’s economic crisis deepened as the government acknowledged it’s heading for recession and a former central banker spoke of “some panic” in the financial system as oil prices plunged.

Speaking a day after President Vladimir Putin said Russia is scrapping a proposed $45 billion pipeline to Europe, the government predicted the economy will contract next year and canceled a bond auction. It was also forced to pledge 39.95 billion rubles ($740 million) to support OAO Gazprombank, at least the third lender to secure a capital injection since U.S. and European Union sanctions curbed their ability to borrow.

The economy is succumbing to penalties imposed over the conflict in Ukraine as the plummeting ruble stokes inflation and a 30 percent drop in oil prices erodes export revenue. Russia may enter its first recession since 2009 in the first quarter, according to Deputy Economy Minister Alexei Vedev.



https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12- ... -year.html





The ruble slumped to a record for a fourth day and the government scrapped a planned bond sale as crude fell and the Economy Ministry said Russia may enter its first recession since 2009 next year.

The currency plunged 5.4 percent to 53.9795 against the dollar by 6:54 p.m. in Moscow after weakening to as low as 54.0155 earlier. The three month MosPrime interbank rate climbed one basis point to 12.75 percent, the highest since May 2009.

Russia may sink into recession in the first quarter, Deputy Economy Minister Alexei Vedev said, as the conflict in Ukraine and plunging oil prices choke economic growth in the world’s biggest energy exporter. The Finance Ministry said it won’t offer ruble debt tomorrow, citing “unfavorable” markets.



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-0 ... lines.html
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A lot at stake for Russia in battle [w/EU] for Ukraine

#360

Post by Chilidog »

The Ruble is taking a pounding right now.

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A lot at stake for Russia in battle [w/EU] for Ukraine

#361

Post by Volkonski »

I understand that there was a joke going around Russia earlier this year to the effect that in 2015 Putin, the ruble and oil would all hit 63.

Putin will certainly have his 63rd birthday next year.

This morning Brent crude dropped below 63 to $62.94.

The ruble is at 57.44 to the dollar and it continues to fall so 63 is in sight.



The Russians need to get themselves a new joke, that joke has been overtaken by reality.


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A lot at stake for Russia in battle [w/EU] for Ukraine

#362

Post by SueDB »

The Russians need to get themselves a new joke, that joke has been overtaken by reality.



That's just the present political system.



I am wondering how long the Russians will sit for having their currency devalued significantly.



What are the options besides going to war somehow? Going to war would bring quick gains, but the long haul would not be pretty for Russia.

Another European war where we are isolated somewhat by the Atlantic. It's been a good moat. Barring nukes, there isn't much the Russians can really do to us. Destroying Europe is another matter.



I am wondering if they have enough spare parts for their equipment or if they are going to haul out the 50 thousand plus T34/85 tanks left over from "The Big One"? They don't throw anything away. 105 and 122 artillery - probably more than all the rest of the countries combined - in a warehouse. You have to have lots of properly trained folks too. They don't have that. We've have just come off major urban warfare scenarios fighting them intensely since 1991. They have been dealing with killing their own for a while.
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A lot at stake for Russia in battle [w/EU] for Ukraine

#363

Post by Family Liberty Patriot »

But I was assured by the Teabaggers that economic sanctions don't work, and that the President was showing weakness by employing such measures.
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A lot at stake for Russia in battle [w/EU] for Ukraine

#364

Post by SueDB »





But I was assured by the Teabaggers that economic sanctions don't work, and that the President was showing weakness by employing such measures.







When you're trying to whip up another war, of course they don't work.
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#365

Post by Volkonski »

Russian economy in crisis.





[hlyellow]The ruble was at 68.25 to the dollar in midmorning trading. It closed at 67.50 on Tuesday, when it swung wildly to about 80 rubles[/hlyellow] to the dollar after opening the day at 64.

Snip--------

Traditionally, the Russian Central Bank has managed the ruble rate. Since transitioning to a free-float model last month, the bank has sold more than $10 billion in foreign currency to support the ruble in December, including nearly $2 billion on Monday alone.

Some traders and strategists said the Finance Ministry’s announcement would have little effect. They noted that the ministry’s decision to sell foreign currency reserves was no different than the central bank’s efforts, which had done little to help the ruble.

Snip-------

The ruble has lost about half of its value as oil prices have plummeted and as Russia has felt the increasing weight of economic sanctions. On Monday,[hlyellow] the central bank drastically raised interest rates to 17 percent[/hlyellow] from 10.5 percent in an emergency bid to halt the currency’s slide. But rather than reverse the downturn, the move accelerated the panic, as the market interpreted it as an act of desperation.



http://thefogbow.com/forum/topic/6483-a ... ne/page-19



Late on Tuesday, U.S. tech giant Apple said it had been forced to halt online sales of iPhones, iPads and computers in Russia.

"Due to extreme fluctuations in the value of the ruble, our online store in Russia is currently unavailable while we review pricing," the company said in a statement to The Financial Times.

Major Auto, one of Russia's biggest car dealerships, which sells 35 automobile brands, on Monday temporarily halted sales due to "the highly volatile ruble exchange rate," sources in the company told the TASS news agency.

British automobile manufacturer Jaguar Land Rover will impose a temporarily freeze on car shipments to Russia from Dec. 19, the Vedomosti newspaper reported Wednesday, citing three car dealerships. The company said the move would allow it to adjust prices.





http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/ ... 13526.html
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A lot at stake for Russia in battle [w/EU] for Ukraine

#366

Post by Sterngard Friegen »

:wave: to Putin's Empire.

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A lot at stake for Russia in battle [w/EU] for Ukraine

#367

Post by Volkonski »

Recession in Russia likely inevitable next year.





(Reuters) - The Russian economy stagnated in November, data published on Wednesday showed, making it even more likely that the ruble's rapid collapse so far this month will push it into recession next year.

Investment by Russian companies, once a staple of the country's economic performance, fell sharper than expected last month, underlining pressure from Western sanction imposed on Moscow for its role in the Ukraine crisis.



Snip-----



The set of data, which also noted some increase in real wages, follows industrial production numbers, released on Monday, showing that industry output disappointed last month, falling by 0.4 percent, against analysts' expectations of a 1.1 percent rise.

Snip-----

"The key point however is that these data predate the recent collapse in the rouble. The full effect of the recent events on the Russian economy will only start to show up in activity data next year, but the short point is that [hlyellow]Russia is heading for a deep recession in 2015.[/hlyellow]"







http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/ ... XO20141217



What will Putin do? Blame the west and prepare for confrontation to distract people from the bad economy.



Dr Leonid Petrov, an expert in strategic intelligence and visiting fellow at the ANU School of Asia and the Pacific, has warned that the Russian economic crisis may quickly develop into a global strategic crisis on par with, or worse than, the Cold War.

“Russia needs to maintain the slow-motion crisis in Eastern Ukraine, first to deflect attention from domestic economic issues and second to support Putin’s approval rating,” he said. “But pretty soon people are going to start asking questions.”

Residents of Moscow have been buying up imported products in fear of price increases due

Residents of Moscow have been buying up imported products in fear of price increases due to the depreciation of the rouble.

If the instability continues, Moscow will pump more and more money into its military industrial complex — first, to shore up popular support by maintaining an artificially high level of employment through unproductive jobs; second, to prepare for further confrontation.







http://www.perthnow.com.au/business/eco ... ebe3e06fb4
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#368

Post by SueDB »

It sounds like they are going to try to finance a first world army/arms on a 3rd world economy...again. Like the Russians haven't been there before... :roll: #-o
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#369

Post by Volkonski »



LONDON (MarketWatch) — The ruble staged a solid rebound on Wednesday after a report that the Russian finance ministry has started to sell foreign currency in an effort to halt the recent slide in the currency.

The ruble USDRUB, -17.33% traded at 68.4725 to the dollar, improving from 67.8939 in late trade on Tuesday. Earlier on Wednesday, the ruble had weakened to trade around the 72-mark, which was still stronger than the lowest-ever level of 80.1 touched on Tuesday. The slide in the Russian currency on Tuesday came as investors grew concerned that the central bank’s move to hike a key interest rate to 17% wouldn’t be enough to stop the selloff.

Wednesday’s rebound came after news agency Interfax reported that the Russian finance ministry has started to sell foreign reserves and quoted deputy finance minister Alexei Moiseyev as saying it stands ready to sell foreign currency “for as long as necessary”. [hlyellow]The Russian finance ministry currently holds about $7 billion in currency balances[/hlyellow], Interfax said.





http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dollar ... -17-210340



$7 billion dollars worth of non-ruble currency reserves won't last very long if large numbers of holders of rubles decide to dump them. However, for the moment the ruble has stabilized at about 61 to the dollar. If I had rubles I would dump them at that price. (I would have dumped them weeks ago. ;) )
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A lot at stake for Russia in battle [w/EU] for Ukraine

#370

Post by Volkonski »

Some more background.

http://gantdaily.com/2014/12/17/ruble-j ... ort-banks/





Spending more reserves is one. But [hlyellow]the central bank has already burned about $90 billion in foreign currency reserves[/hlyellow] so far this year with little impact. Russia’s total international reserves, which also include gold and other liquid foreign assets, had fallen to $416 billion by Dec 5.

Schroders economist Craig Botham described the government intervention as “symbolic.” He said the central bank had spent around $10 billion buying rubles since late November, and more action would follow.

[hlyellow]But it can’t draw on reserves indefinitely.[/hlyellow] The unpalatable alternatives are more rate hikes and capital controls, both of which would condemn Russia to an even deeper recession.



Russia is going to run out of cash and have to start selling gold which will depress gold prices. More rate hikes? They are already at 17%. Capital controls? That will discourage foreign investment even further.



For the sake of the Crimea and the Ukraine Putin is going to destroy his county's economy. The fall in oil prices would have hurt Russia no matter what but the Ukraine sanctions and the costs of integrating the Crimea have made things much worse. Russia could have been a stable prosperous nation with growing trade and a diversifying economy. They would have been a second tier power to be sure but a stable and prosperous one. Putin may lead them over a cliff into an abyss. :(
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A lot at stake for Russia in battle [w/EU] for Ukraine

#371

Post by Family Liberty Patriot »





Russia is going to run out of cash and have to start selling gold which will depress gold prices.







So the President's sanctions have the tangential benefit of harming Glenn Beck's goldbug nutters?



I can live with that.
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A lot at stake for Russia in battle [w/EU] for Ukraine

#372

Post by Suranis »

The New Republic argues for a different interpretation of the currency crises. That Putin Helped out one of his palls who was hurting from the sanctions who then tturned around and converted all the rubles he was given into dollars, collapsing the currencyhttp://www.newrepublic.com/article/120577/russ ... yvnia-2014





The Russian ruble collapsed overnight, tumbling almost 20 percent on Tuesday to a record low of 80.10 rubles to the dollar. In a last-ditch effort to stabilize the currency, the Central Bank raised interest rates to 17 percent in the middle of the night, staving off the collapse for all of two hours, Reuters' Pierre Briancon reports.



Rosneft, Russia’s state-owned oil company run by President Vladimir Putin’s longtime friend and former chief of staff Igor Sechin, appears to be behind the currency’s abrupt tumble. Facing $60 billion in debt while bruised by Western sanctions, and having been denied a massive government bailout, the company scrambled to find a way to make debt payments due this month, according to The New York Times. Rosneft issued 625 billion rubles in bonds and sold them to Russian banks, which then deposited them with the Central Bank. “The central bank started the printing press to help the Sechin-Putin business, and gave Rosneft 625 billion newly printed rubles. The money immediately appeared on the currency market, and the rate collapsed,” the liberal Russian politician Boris Y. Nemtsov told the Times. End result: Rosneft wins, Russians lose.



In Moscow, people are rushing to use what’s left of their savings to buy cars, computers, and other expensive appliances—anything that might retain more value than the ruble. The government may soon be forced to introduce capital controls, Vedomosti reports, all thanks to the Central Bank’s efforts to save Sechin, who quickly denied any involvement in the ruble’s collapse.

....

And speaking of expansionism, the ruble’s collapse seems to have triggered an abrupt revision of the Kremlin’s policy in Ukraine. Earlier this month, several senior Kremlin officials responsible for directing Russian policy in Ukraine resigned. On Tuesday, amid the ruble’s fall, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said “Moscow was not suggesting federalization or autonomy for the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, because the issue ‘is for Ukrainians to decide,’” Sputnik, Russia’s new state-owned media outlet, reported.





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A lot at stake for Russia in battle [w/EU] for Ukraine

#373

Post by esseff44 »

Will our new GOP led Congress follow Putin over the cliff? They admired him so much for his bold moves.

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A lot at stake for Russia in battle [w/EU] for Ukraine

#374

Post by gupwalla »

You have to wonder what's going though Orly Taitz's head now that her bare-chested muscovite pinup idol has gotten into the bailout business.
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A lot at stake for Russia in battle [w/EU] for Ukraine

#375

Post by Volkonski »





You have to wonder what's going though Orly Taitz's head now that her bare-chested muscovite pinup idol has gotten into the bailout business.







If Orly wants to help Putin and Russia she can use her husband's dollars to buy rubles, lots and lots of rubles. ;)
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