Consumer Confidence

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Addie
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Consumer Confidence

#1

Post by Addie » Tue Aug 26, 2014 1:07 pm

Bloomberg Consumer Confidence in U.S. Rises to Almost Seven-Year High Consumer confidence in the U.S. unexpectedly climbed in August to the highest level in almost seven years, reinforcing signs of a strengthening outlook for the second half of 2014.The Conference Board’s sentiment gauge rose to 92.4, the highest since October 2007, from a revised 90.3 a month earlier, the New York-based private research group said today. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey called for a decline to 89.Americans are finding more reasons to be upbeat about their prospects for the rest of the year as recent reports pointed to a pickup in the job market and stock prices advanced to records. Stronger sentiment will also help underpin consumer spending, which makes up almost 70 percent of the economy.“Consumer confidence can sustain these high levels and even build on it a little,” Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, New York, said before the report. “The key driver is the labor market, and the numbers there have been showing an improvement.”
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Consumer Confidence

#2

Post by Addie » Fri Oct 17, 2014 12:14 pm

Bloomberg













Consumer Sentiment in U.S. Increases to a Seven-Year High



Consumer confidence in the U.S. unexpectedly rose in October to the highest level in seven years, showing a brightening in Americans’ moods as gas prices drop and the labor market gains traction.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary sentiment index for this month increased to 86.4, the strongest since July 2007, from a final reading of 84.6 in September. The median projection in a Bloomberg survey of 67 economists called for 84.

Job gains on pace for their strongest year since 1999 and cheaper gas prices are keeping households upbeat about economic expansion amid the weakening in Europe and emerging nations. Faster wage increases and more broad-based improvement in the labor market would help further spur the consumer spending that makes up about 70 percent of the economy.

“An improving job market and lower energy costs are going to offset a lot of what’s happening,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist of Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York, who projected the index would rise to 86.






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Consumer Confidence

#3

Post by Sterngard Friegen » Fri Oct 17, 2014 12:36 pm

And for the last week the stock market has been reflecting that consumer confidence by doing what?

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Consumer Confidence

#4

Post by gupwalla » Fri Oct 17, 2014 1:06 pm

The financiers are perpetually anxious that if consumers spend too much money, Inflation.

Their preferred cure is to prevent consumers from having any discretionary income in the first place.
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Consumer Confidence

#5

Post by Addie » Fri Dec 12, 2014 5:18 pm

Reuters











After years of doubts, Americans turn more bullish on economy





(Reuters) - Pessimism and doubt have dominated how Americans see the economy for many years. Now, in a hopeful sign for the economic outlook, confidence is suddenly perking up.



Expectations for a better job market helped power the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment to a near eight-year high in December, according to data released on Friday.



U.S. consumers also saw sharp drops in gasoline prices as a shot in the arm, and the survey added heft to strong November retail sales data that has showed Americans getting into the holiday shopping season with gusto. ...



Overall, the sentiment index rose to a higher-than-expected 93.8, mirroring levels seen in boom years like 1996 and 2004.






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Consumer Confidence

#6

Post by Addie » Fri Apr 17, 2015 1:35 pm

Bloomberg













Americans’ Confidence Climbs to Second-Highest Since 2007



Consumer confidence improved in April to the second-highest level in more than eight years as Americans held more favorable views of the economic outlook and inflation.

The University of Michigan said Friday that its preliminary index of sentiment climbed to 95.9 this month from 93 in March. The median projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for an increase to 94.

Consumers were more upbeat about the economy, their current financial situations and the buying climate, indicating spending will pick up after a lackluster performance in the first quarter. At the same time, households have a dimmer view about their income prospects, meaning shoppers will keep seeking out discounts from merchants.

The report “is encouraging given that the March payroll report was a little bit weaker and some of the other data around the consumer has been softer,” said Michelle Meyer, deputy head of U.S economics at Bank of America Corp. in New York. “The fact that consumers are feeling better hopefully will translate into greater expenditures over time and that’s been a missing link to the economic recovery this year.”






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Re: Consumer Confidence

#7

Post by Addie » Thu Aug 13, 2015 11:58 am

Bloomberg
Retail Sales Show Broad Gain as U.S. Consumers Spur Growth

Sales at U.S. retailers rose in July on growing demand for everything from cars to clothing, and a decline the previous month was wiped away, signaling consumers are propelling growth in the world’s largest economy.

The 0.6 percent advance matched the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg and followed little change in June that was previously reported as a 0.3 percent drop, a Commerce Department report showed Thursday in Washington. Eleven of 13 major categories showed gains.

Rising employment, stronger finances and still-cheap fuel is helping draw consumers into stores and auto dealerships. Growth in household spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, is bolstering the expansion as Federal Reserve policy makers move toward lifting interest rates this year for the first time since 2006.

“The consumer-driven recovery of the economy continues on track,” said Harm Bandholz, chief U.S. economist at UniCredit Group in New York, who correctly projected the gain. “The fundamentals are all in place for solid consumer spending. The outlook remains strong for the second half of the year.”
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Re: Consumer Confidence

#8

Post by Addie » Fri Nov 13, 2015 4:38 pm

Bloomberg
Consumer Sentiment Climbs as Americans Buoyed by Price Discounts

Consumer sentiment climbed more than forecast in November as Americans took heart in lower interest rates and store discounts.

The University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for this month rose to 93.1, a four-month high, from 90 in October, a report showed Friday. The median projection in a Bloomberg survey called for a reading of 91.5.

The gain in confidence was propelled by those in the bottom two-thirds of the pay scale as a firming job market and cheap fuel costs made for the most-favorable income expectations in almost nine years. That bodes well for the holiday-shopping season after retail sales were weaker than projected last month.

“Confidence rose in early November mainly due to a stronger outlook for the domestic economy,” Richard Curtin, director of the Michigan Survey of Consumers, said in a statement. “Buying plans remained very favorable in early November due to low prices and currently low interest rates.”
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Re: Consumer Confidence

#9

Post by Chilidog » Tue Nov 15, 2016 7:53 am

Watch the consumer confidence index plunge as a Trump Presidency approaches.

There are anecdotal indications that retail sales slipped off the cliff last weekend.

This coming weekend will be the last pre-thanksgiving weekend.

Sales should be ramping up. If they don't...

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Re: Consumer Confidence

#10

Post by rifleman1635 » Tue Nov 15, 2016 1:34 pm

Chilidog wrote:Watch the consumer confidence index plunge as a Trump Presidency approaches.

There are anecdotal indications that retail sales slipped off the cliff last weekend.

This coming weekend will be the last pre-thanksgiving weekend.

Sales should be ramping up. If they don't...
Last year's "Black Friday" was beyond abysmal even with so many stores opening earlier (on Thanksgiving) and continuing the sale through the entire weekend ... so a repeat of last year won't be indicative of anything really.

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Re: Consumer Confidence

#11

Post by Sugar Magnolia » Tue Nov 15, 2016 1:43 pm

rifleman1635 wrote:
Chilidog wrote:Watch the consumer confidence index plunge as a Trump Presidency approaches.

There are anecdotal indications that retail sales slipped off the cliff last weekend.

This coming weekend will be the last pre-thanksgiving weekend.

Sales should be ramping up. If they don't...
Last year's "Black Friday" was beyond abysmal even with so many stores opening earlier (on Thanksgiving) and continuing the sale through the entire weekend ... so a repeat of last year won't be indicative of anything really.
Online e-commerce sales on Black Friday and Thanksgiving Day continued to grow to record spending levels, thanks to more shoppers forgoing crowds in stores to shop at home. Together, shoppers spent $4.45 billion online on Black Friday and Thanksgiving Day, according to data released by Adobe.

Black Friday brought in $2.72 billion in e-commerce sales, up 14% from 2014. Thanksgiving Day saw a higher jump in online spending, with $1.73 billion in sales, up 25% from the previous year.
http://fortune.com/2015/11/28/black-friday-sales-2/

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Re: Consumer Confidence

#12

Post by RoadScholar » Tue Nov 15, 2016 1:47 pm

Yeah, you can't use brick-and-mortar stores as a sole barometer any more.
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Re: Consumer Confidence

#13

Post by rifleman1635 » Tue Nov 15, 2016 1:49 pm

Sugar Magnolia wrote:
rifleman1635 wrote:
Chilidog wrote:Watch the consumer confidence index plunge as a Trump Presidency approaches.

There are anecdotal indications that retail sales slipped off the cliff last weekend.

This coming weekend will be the last pre-thanksgiving weekend.

Sales should be ramping up. If they don't...
Last year's "Black Friday" was beyond abysmal even with so many stores opening earlier (on Thanksgiving) and continuing the sale through the entire weekend ... so a repeat of last year won't be indicative of anything really.
Online e-commerce sales on Black Friday and Thanksgiving Day continued to grow to record spending levels, thanks to more shoppers forgoing crowds in stores to shop at home. Together, shoppers spent $4.45 billion online on Black Friday and Thanksgiving Day, according to data released by Adobe.

Black Friday brought in $2.72 billion in e-commerce sales, up 14% from 2014. Thanksgiving Day saw a higher jump in online spending, with $1.73 billion in sales, up 25% from the previous year.
http://fortune.com/2015/11/28/black-friday-sales-2/
That's online sales only ... but the first part is clear - traditional shopping was DOWN (somewhat offset by online sales) ... http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bla ... and-wrong/ (combined sales - online and traditional - DECREASED overall over the 2014 period.)
Edit: ETA - pasted wrong link ... oops.

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Re: Consumer Confidence

#14

Post by RoadScholar » Tue Nov 15, 2016 1:51 pm

Wait 'til you see the decrease this year.
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Re: Consumer Confidence

#15

Post by rifleman1635 » Tue Nov 15, 2016 1:57 pm

RoadScholar wrote:Wait 'til you see the decrease this year.
My family is a pretty good bell-weather (I like to think so anyway) and we planned on spending less this year BEFORE the election. Our decision has nothing to do with how we think the economy is going to do and everything to do with the fact that we decided that we already have enough stuff.

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Re: Consumer Confidence

#16

Post by RoadScholar » Tue Nov 15, 2016 1:58 pm

rifleman1635 wrote:
RoadScholar wrote:Wait 'til you see the decrease this year.
My family is a pretty good bell-weather (I like to think so anyway) and we planned on spending less this year BEFORE the election. Our decision has nothing to do with how we think the economy is going to do and everything to do with the fact that we decided that we already have enough stuff.
I hear that.
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Re: Consumer Confidence

#17

Post by Chilidog » Tue Nov 15, 2016 2:40 pm

Bob the Tomato: Larry, how much stuff do you need to make you happy?
Larry the Cucumber: [Thoughtfully.] I don't know. How much stuff is there?

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Re: Consumer Confidence

#18

Post by jamese777 » Tue Nov 15, 2016 3:26 pm

U.S. Economic Confidence Surges After Election
gallup.com
by Justin McCarthy and Jeffrey M. Jones
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
Economic Confidence Index climbs 13 points
Index positive for the first time since March 2015
Republicans' economic outlook improves drastically
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Americans' confidence in the U.S. economy increased sharply after the election, moving from a slightly negative evaluation (-10) to a slightly positive one (+3). Gallup's U.S. Economic Confidence Index had been consistently negative throughout the year leading up to the election.

Gallup's U.S. Economic Confidence Index is the average of two components: how Americans rate current economic conditions and whether they feel the economy is improving or getting worse. The index has a theoretical maximum of +100 if all Americans were to say the economy is doing well and improving, and a theoretical minimum of -100 if all Americans were to say the economy is doing poorly and getting worse.

The index has registered positive only a handful of times over the nine years Gallup has tracked it daily -- the most recent being March 2015. For the week of Nov. 7-13, including two pre-election and five post-election days of interviewing, the index averaged 0.

The increase in economic confidence mostly stems from Republicans' more positive views after Republican Donald Trump won the election. Gallup has previously noted that Americans view the economy through a political lens. Republicans have had a dismal view of the economy -- especially of its future direction -- during Democratic President Barack Obama's two terms.

Republicans' Economic Outlook Improves Substantially

After Trump won last week's election, Republicans and Republican-leaning independents now have a much more optimistic view of the U.S. economy's outlook than they did before the election. Just 16% of Republicans said the economy was getting better in the week before the election, while 81% said it was getting worse. Since the election, 49% say it is getting better and 44% worse.

Conversely, Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents' confidence in the economy plummeted after the election. Before the election, 61% of Democrats said the economy was getting better and 35% worse. Now, Democrats are evenly divided, with 46% saying it is getting better and 47% saying it is getting worse.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/197474/econo ... aign=tiles

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Re: Consumer Confidence

#19

Post by rifleman1635 » Tue Nov 15, 2016 3:47 pm

jamese777 wrote: :snippity:

After Trump won last week's election, Republicans and Republican-leaning independents now have a much more optimistic view of the U.S. economy's outlook than they did before the election. Just 16% of Republicans said the economy was getting better in the week before the election, while 81% said it was getting worse. Since the election, 49% say it is getting better and 44% worse.

Conversely, Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents' confidence in the economy plummeted after the election. Before the election, 61% of Democrats said the economy was getting better and 35% worse. Now, Democrats are evenly divided, with 46% saying it is getting better and 47% saying it is getting worse.
:snippity:
And here we have the Fickleness Quotient (FQ) - considering that there has been no other reason than the election for change in opinion about the economy, the difference before/after has no explanation but plain ol' "blinky blinky shiny shiny" syndrome.
Based on the numbers above - the FQ for Republicans is 70 while the FQ for Democrats is a mere 25 (the lower the number, the less fickle.)

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Re: Consumer Confidence

#20

Post by Addie » Fri Apr 14, 2017 11:56 am

Reuters
U.S. retail sales, consumer prices slump in March

U.S. retail sales fell for a second straight month in March and consumer prices dropped for the first time in just over a year, supporting views that the economy lost significant momentum in the first quarter.

But with the labor market near full employment, the decline in sales and consumer prices reported by the government on Friday is likely temporary and probably does not change expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again in June.

"For the Fed, the underlying momentum is more important in terms of policy decisions, and that looks to be strong, supported by a tightening labor market, rising incomes and high consumer confidence," said Gregory Daco, head of U.S. macroeconomics at Oxford Economics in New York.

The Commerce Department said retail sales dropped 0.2 percent last month after a 0.3 percent decrease in February, which was the first and biggest decline in nearly a year. Compared to March last year retail sales increased 5.2 percent.
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Re: Consumer Confidence

#21

Post by Addie » Tue Jun 25, 2019 2:39 pm

Bloomberg (paywall)
Consumer Confidence in U.S. Declines to Lowest Since 2017

U.S. consumer confidence fell in June to the lowest level since September 2017 as Americans became less upbeat about the economy and labor market amid trade tensions with China and Mexico.

The Conference Board’s index declined to 121.5, lower than all forecasts in a Bloomberg survey, data from the New York-based group showed Tuesday. The median projection called for a reading of 131. A gauge of the present situation decreased to a one-year low of 162.6, while the measure of expectations fell to 94.1.

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Re: Consumer Confidence

#22

Post by RTH10260 » Wed Jun 26, 2019 7:20 am

Addie wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 2:39 pm
Bloomberg (paywall)
Consumer Confidence in U.S. Declines to Lowest Since 2017
:snippity:
Just wait until the full effects of the tariffs show up on the consumers door steps.

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Re: Consumer Confidence

#23

Post by Addie » Thu Jun 27, 2019 5:19 pm

WSJ (paywall)
Consumer Confidence Slid in June on Trade Tensions

U.S. optimism about the economy deteriorated in June to its lowest level in 21 months as consumers fretted over escalating trade tensions and a cooling jobs market, according to a monthly barometer of Americans’ mood.

The Conference Board, a private research group, said Tuesday its index of consumer confidence fell to 121.5 in June. That was a nearly 10-point drop from 131.3 in May and was the index’s lowest level since September 2017. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected a reading of 131.

Also Tuesday, the Commerce Department said purchases of newly built single-family homes posted an unexpected decline in May. New-home sales decreased 7.8% from April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 626,000, the slowest pace of sales since December. That could weigh on overall economic growth in the second quarter of the year—and came despite falling mortgage rates, which make home ownership more affordable.

New-home sales are a relatively narrow slice of all U.S. home sales, and sales data can be volatile and subject to revisions. Still, taken together the two reports show “heightened anxiety” on the part of consumers, said Robert Frick, an economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. ...

A gauge of household assessments about the present economic situation decreased to 162.6 from 170.7, while an index tracking expectations for the future decreased to 94.1 from 105.0 last month.

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