U.S. Housing Market

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Addie
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U.S. Housing Market

#1

Post by Addie » Tue May 28, 2013 7:06 pm

Thread title has changed

---------------------------------

[link]Bloomberg,http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-2 ... -2008.html[/link]





Confidence at Five-Year High as U.S. Housing Climbs





Consumer confidence climbed to the highest level in more than five years and home prices advanced by the most in seven as the housing rebound gives the U.S. economy a lift.





The Conference Board’s sentiment index rose to 76.2 in May, exceeding all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists and the highest since February 2008, data from the New York-based private research group showed today. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities increased 10.9 percent in the year to March, the biggest 12-month gain since April 2006.





Rising property and stock values are boosting household finances, helping Americans cope with an increase in the payroll tax and wage gains that have barely kept up with inflation. Stocks climbed as the reports underpinned the outlook for consumer spending and earnings at companies ranging from retailers such as Williams-Sonoma Inc. (WSM) to homebuilders including PulteGroup Inc (PHM).


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Confidence at Five-Year High as U.S. Housing Climbs

#2

Post by ducktape » Wed May 29, 2013 3:52 pm

There are rarely dramatic changes in life...they are always gradual and slow. It's not like TV or movies.Unfortunately, I disagree. There are often negative dramatic changes, and they're easy to cause, too. It's the positive ones that are gradual, slow, and difficult to accomplish.



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Confidence at Five-Year High as U.S. Housing Climbs

#3

Post by Addie » Fri Oct 17, 2014 9:42 am

Forbes









Housing Starts Rise 17.8% Year-Over-Year In September; 6.3% Up From August



Construction of new homes rose 6.3% in September and permit activity increased, suggesting that the gradual housing recovery is continuing, data released Thursday by the U.S. Commerce Department shows.



September groundbreakings rose to a seasonally adjusted, annual rate of 1.017 million, up from August’s revised 957,000. September’s rate was 17.8% higher than the pace of 863,000 one year earlier, and fell within the range expected by economists surveyed ahead of the release by Bloomberg.



Building permits also bumped up 1.5% in September, to an annual (seasonally adjusted) rate of 1.018 million, over August’s revised 1.003 million level. September’s permit numbers are 2.5% above one year earlier.



Despite the increase in September activity in both permitting and housing starts, builders confidence is down slightly, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo. Yesterday the group released its Housing Market Index, which shows that builder confidence in the market for new, single-family homes fell five points, to a level of 54, in October. Any number over 50 indicates that more builders view the market as favorable than as poor.









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Confidence at Five-Year High as U.S. Housing Climbs

#4

Post by Addie » Fri Oct 17, 2014 9:48 am

Associated Press





Apartments push up US homebuilding in September



WASHINGTON (AP) — Construction firms broke ground on more apartment complexes in September, pushing up the pace of U.S. homebuilding.

The Commerce Department says housing starts rose 6.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.017 million homes. Most of the gains came from apartment construction, which increased 18.5 percent after plunging in August.



The sluggish recovery and meager wage growth has left more Americans renting, instead of owning homes. Apartment construction has surged 30.3 percent over the past 12 months, although the pace is volatile from month to month.





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Re: Confidence at Five-Year High as U.S. Housing Climbs

#5

Post by Addie » Thu Sep 24, 2015 11:52 am

Associated Press
US new-home sales surge 5.7 percent in August to 7-year high

WASHINGTON (AP) — Buoyed by steady job gains and low mortgage rates, Americans purchased new homes in August at the fastest pace in more than seven years.

New-home sales surged 5.7 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 552,000, the Commerce Department said Thursday. That is the strongest pace since February 2008, near the beginning of the Great Recession. Last month's increase followed an even bigger 12 percent jump in July, according to the government's revised figures.

Healthy hiring and smaller price increases for new homes have finally begun pushing up sales, which were hammered during the Great Recession and recovered slowly even after the downturn ended in 2009. New home sales have soared nearly 22 percent in the past year.

Strong gains in new-home sales could accelerate the economy by boosting home building, which generates construction jobs, demand for more building materials and more spending on landscaping and other services.


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Re: U.S. Housing Market

#6

Post by Addie » Mon Feb 26, 2018 1:50 pm

WSJ
U.S. New-Home Sales Drop Sharply, Again

WASHINGTON—Sales of new homes in the U.S. fell steeply at the beginning of 2018, continuing a deceleration in sales seen at the end of last year. ... Purchases of newly-built single-family homes—a relatively narrow slice of all U.S. home sales—dropped 7.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 593,000 in January, the Commerce Department said Monday. This bucks the 4.0% increase economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected.

A large drop in new-home sales in the Northeast, which experienced a particularly harsh winter, and in the South appeared to drive the overall nation’s sales lower at the beginning of 2018. Both regions saw the largest declines in more than a year. ... Purchases have now declined four out of the past six months.

From a year earlier, sales also dropped, falling 1.0% in January. The pace of new-home sales remains well below the elevated levels seen before the 2007-09 financial crisis and recession. ... More widely, housing market inventory has been tight, driving up home prices and pricing some potential buyers out of the market. In January, sales of previously owned homes, which represent the bulk of the U.S. market, experienced their sharpest year-over-year drop in more than three years. But in January, at the current sales pace, new-home supply reached 6.1 months, the highest level since the middle of 2014.

Still, home builders’ future expectations of single-family home sales rose to its highest level since the peak of the housing bubble, according to the National Association of Home Builders, suggesting new-home sales could pick up in the coming months. ... The data on home-builder sentiment “now points to solid gains over the next few months, but we’re expecting a softer second half” of the year, Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, previously said in a note to clients.


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Re: U.S. Housing Market

#7

Post by RTH10260 » Mon Feb 26, 2018 2:40 pm

:twisted: With all those tax cuts families will now be swimming in free cash to buy their dream home...



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Re: U.S. Housing Market

#8

Post by Whatever4 » Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:55 am

I just need one buyer, around the end of March. :pray:


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Re: U.S. Housing Market

#9

Post by Addie » Sat Apr 14, 2018 10:30 am

CNBC
Housing affordability weakening at fastest pace in a quarter century

It is the perfect storm: Rising home prices, rising mortgage rates and rising demand are colliding with a critical shortage of homes for sale.

And all of that is slamming housing affordability, which is causing more of today's buyers to overstretch their budgets. This year, affordability – a metric based solely on the amount of the monthly mortgage payment – will weaken at the fastest pace in a quarter century, according to researchers at Arch Mortgage Insurance.

The average mortgage payment, based on the median priced home, increased by 5 percent in the first quarter of 2018 nationally and could go up another 10 percent to 15 percent by the end of the year, according to their report.

Researchers looked at the median-priced home, now $250,000, and estimated price gains this year of 5 percent in addition to mortgage rates going from 4 percent to 5 percent on the 30-year fixed. Other studies that factor in median income also show decreasing affordability because home prices are rising far faster than income growth. ...

With no relief in either inventory or home price appreciation in sight, the housing market is likely to become even more competitive this year.

At some point, however, there will come a breaking point when sales slow, which is already beginning to happen in some cities. Home prices usually lag sales, so if history holds true, price gains should start to ease next year.


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Re: U.S. Housing Market

#10

Post by tek » Sat Apr 14, 2018 4:28 pm

Watch out for that Bubble...


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Re: U.S. Housing Market

#11

Post by RTH10260 » Tue May 15, 2018 4:37 pm

Seattle and its homless
Amazon Questions Future In Seattle After City Passes Controversial Tax
Katherine Biek
9:30 AM, May 15, 2018
9:37 AM, May 15, 2018

Seattle plans to tax its largest businesses in an effort to combat homelessness.

Its city council voted in favor of a so-called "head tax" Monday. Under it, for-profit companies that earn at least $20 million in annual sales will be taxed $275 per employee each year.

That's about half the original proposed amount, which was opposed by Amazon and more than 130 other businesses.

Amazon even temporarily paused construction of a new office tower on its Seattle campus over the initial proposal.

After Monday's vote, Amazon's vice president said in a statement that the head tax was forcing the company to question its growth in Seattle. The Seattle Times reports the online retail giant employs more than 45,000 people in the city, meaning it would be taxed more than $12 million each year.



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Re: U.S. Housing Market

#12

Post by Volkonski » Wed May 16, 2018 12:36 pm

RTH10260 wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 4:37 pm
Seattle and its homless
Amazon Questions Future In Seattle After City Passes Controversial Tax
Katherine Biek
9:30 AM, May 15, 2018
9:37 AM, May 15, 2018

Seattle plans to tax its largest businesses in an effort to combat homelessness.

Its city council voted in favor of a so-called "head tax" Monday. Under it, for-profit companies that earn at least $20 million in annual sales will be taxed $275 per employee each year.

That's about half the original proposed amount, which was opposed by Amazon and more than 130 other businesses.

Amazon even temporarily paused construction of a new office tower on its Seattle campus over the initial proposal.

After Monday's vote, Amazon's vice president said in a statement that the head tax was forcing the company to question its growth in Seattle. The Seattle Times reports the online retail giant employs more than 45,000 people in the city, meaning it would be taxed more than $12 million each year.
Seattle doesn't have much in the way of unique resources to keep Amazon there. Amazon can manage its business from just about anywhere. That $12 million a year is a considerable incentive to relocate.

Businesses often relocate operations when something they don't like happens be it higher taxes, stiffer regulations or increased union activity.


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Re: U.S. Housing Market

#13

Post by AndyinPA » Wed May 16, 2018 12:52 pm

I just want them to stay out of here!

The City of Pittsburgh and Amazon are apparently still in talks, and occasionally things leak out that it's going well. :x

I do not see how they are an asset anywhere. I'm not an Amazon fan. I will go out of my way to shop somewhere else (and often find a better or about the same price).

One of my concerns about them coming to Pittsburgh is what they will do to the housing market here. Compared to most places, it's pretty reasonable. I can see that changing.



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Re: U.S. Housing Market

#14

Post by TollandRCR » Wed May 16, 2018 1:16 pm

Amazon is going to love the Wake County side of Research Triangle Park when they set their second HQ there as expected. That old sociologist Howard Odum had a good idea when he conceived the enterprise as an alternative to Vanderbilt's Southern agrarians.

i really wish that i still owned 104 Strawberry Patch in the pines of northern Chatham County. It was a mile or so down the road to the sign advocating "Get the U.S. out of the UN and the UN out of the U.S.". A great pork BBQ place in between was a peaceful meeting ground. A lovely part of the country. The azaleas will knock your socks off, and the wild dogwoods are enchanting, Charlottesville is fine; the Triangle area is smarter and better educated. But Mr. Jefferson is not just in the next room, as Stern will find him to be in Charlottesville.

I was attracted to academia as a kid by the idea of teaching history at the College of William and Mary. Then I discovered that few jobs existed for historians and that William and Mary was a small (but good) presence in American higher education. I think I might have had a great life in that dream, however. Virginia and Outer Banks oysters would have been central, and Phi Beta Kappa would have been my social network. I might have lifted a pint in the Raleigh Tavern if it had ever reopened.

I do hope the Triangle area gets Amazon 2HQ. If not there, Boston.


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Re: U.S. Housing Market

#15

Post by Addie » Wed Jun 06, 2018 9:30 am

Reuters
U.S. house prices to rise at twice the speed of inflation and pay: Reuters poll

(Reuters) - An acute shortage of affordable homes in the United States will continue over the coming year, according to a majority of property market analysts polled by Reuters, driving prices up faster than inflation and wage growth.

After losing over a third of their value a decade ago, which led to the financial crisis and a deep recession, U.S. house prices have regained those losses - led by a robust labor market that has fueled a pickup in economic activity and housing demand. But supply has not been able to keep up with rising demand, making homeownership less affordable.

Annual average earnings growth has remained below 3 percent even as house price rises have averaged more than 5 percent over the last few years.

The latest poll of nearly 45 analysts taken May 16-June 5 showed the S&P/Case Shiller composite index of home prices in 20 cities is expected to gain a further 5.7 percent this year.


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Re: U.S. Housing Market

#16

Post by TexasFilly » Wed Jun 06, 2018 9:49 am

Not to be missed is the impact of Trump's tariffs. I heard on tee vee (no link) that lumber prices have risen over 33% this year. Additionally, the home construction biz is showing signs of weakness. The trickle down "miracle" Trump likes to tout may soon come tumbling down.


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Re: U.S. Housing Market

#17

Post by TollandRCR » Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:10 am

North central Connecticut will be an aberration from national housing trends. A recent estimate is that some 38,000 houses and other structures have potentially crumbling foundations. Some are crumbling now. The culprit is a mineral in the concrete that came from a single quarry. "The stone aggregate used in the concrete mixture has high levels of pyrrhotite, an iron sulfide mineral that can react with oxygen and water to cause swelling and cracking."

This will ruin some families unless the state finds a way to he!p. One family got a quote of $200,000 to repair a house they bought for $190,000. Insurance does not cover this loss it seems.

http://portal.ct.gov/DCP/Trade-Practice ... oundations


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Re: U.S. Housing Market

#18

Post by Addie » Sun Jul 08, 2018 3:02 pm

USA Today: Population migration patterns: US cities Americans are abandoning


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Re: U.S. Housing Market

#19

Post by Whatever4 » Sun Jul 08, 2018 8:45 pm

Addie wrote:
Sun Jul 08, 2018 3:02 pm
USA Today: Population migration patterns: US cities Americans are abandoning
And where they are going to: https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/ec ... /35801343/


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Re: U.S. Housing Market

#20

Post by tek » Mon Jul 09, 2018 6:08 am

pretty screwy statistical analysis..

#11 Rockford IL lost 18,789 out of 349,431
#10 NYC metro lost 21,503 out of 19,566,480

I'm thinking ranking by percentage rather than absolute number might be more revealing.


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Re: U.S. Housing Market

#21

Post by DejaMoo » Mon Jul 09, 2018 10:33 am

“The story of the broader migration pattern in the U.S. is from Snow Belt to Sun Belt," Frey said. "That migration has slowed a little bit in the early part of the decade, when we were still dealing with the aftermath of the recession, but it's coming back.”
Give it another thirty years of climate change and we'll see the trend start to reverse, as coastal and desert areas go underwater (literally and financially), fresh water availability declines, and average temps increase to the point where it's too expensive to run A/C most of the year and too hot to spend much time outside. The Rust Belt, with its more moderate climate and more abundant water supplies, will become much more desirable.



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Re: U.S. Housing Market

#22

Post by TexasFilly » Mon Jul 09, 2018 12:15 pm

People in the US tend to migrate to areas where there are jobs. The Rust Belt is not one of those areas.
Edit: My inside information tells me that the market for new housing is slowing down.Trump's tariffs on Canada have already added several thousands of dollars to the price of a new home.


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Re: U.S. Housing Market

#23

Post by DejaMoo » Mon Jul 09, 2018 1:06 pm

TexasFilly wrote:
Mon Jul 09, 2018 12:15 pm
People in the US tend to migrate to areas where there are jobs. The Rust Belt is not one of those areas.
Give it thirty years. What'll be easier to move: jobs or water? What will be the prospects for the West and South when they run out of sufficient water for their cities before the Midwest and North does?

Looking further forward: by 2100, Chicago's weather is supposed to resemble New Orleans now; Minneapolis' weather will resemble that of North Texas now. If it's gonna be that hot that far north, imagine how unpleasant it will be in the southern coastal states.



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