Tesla

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Gregg
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Re: Tesla

#226

Post by Gregg » Sun Feb 10, 2019 9:46 am

No, the crowd that wants it for $35k still wants it, but they'll never get around to making one that cheap. First it was "we want to sell all the upmodels first, to make more profit'' and now its ''we need to sell all we can in Europe, to beat the other producers to market''. That's not going to work, btw, who the hell thinks they can take a trendy car with some serious quality and build out issues, for which you cannot get serviced or parts, and sell them in Germany, against competition from BMW, Audi, Mercedes and Jaguar. Europeans are kind of protective to begin with and they're not very tolerant of squeaky panels, loose fixtures and poor body alignment. Different market, and honestly he didn't do very well here outside of his 5 year pent up demand.

He needs $920 million cash next month to pay of a bond issue, he projecting losses again for the next 2 Qtrs, building a new factory in China and someday he's going to have to update the models he's selling and are all more than 5 years into a product cycle. If a US company hasn't made at least a design update in 5 years its almost a sure sign they're going to scrap the model and they're not going to invest any more in it.

As for China. The government in China has a favored EV company and it ain't Tesla, although they'll allow Tesla to build a plant (which btw Tesla will own less than 50% of) so that they learn all they want about their cars, and within months Nio, the company they do favor, will have every feature they think is worth stealing. Its just how China operates. If you want to build there, you have to let them have 51% and somehow all your secrets they can get from being inside aren't secrets anymore.


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Notorial Dissent
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Re: Tesla

#227

Post by Notorial Dissent » Sun Feb 10, 2019 3:01 pm

I just can't see it flying in Europe, between shoddy craftsmanship, service, and delivery I just don't think they could give it away. I would also expect the taxes there to be a hinderance as well. I agree with the rest of your points as well.


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Gregg
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Re: Tesla

#228

Post by Gregg » Sun Feb 10, 2019 5:47 pm

The model upgrade costs are a big expense, btw. New models cost billions. EVs don't need transmissions, so its not exactly the same but I'm working on Ford's 10 speed transmissions which is the new thing and is a $960 million dollar investment that spans 8 years from design to product production maturity. We have hard deadlines hitting every week now and missing them would cause a cascade of disasters.

Think that if that new Super Duty transmission isn't ready to go from a few dozen a day in PPAP builds to the 1600 a day instantly needed when the truck plant starts the new new model just means we can run the old model another week? Guess again. Because if the new box is behind, they don't have the old engines, bodies, dashboards, seats and 5,000 odd other parts from hundreds of other suppliers to run another week. Does anyone here think Elon, with his stellar record of making deadlines, is going to be able to manage a transition like that? Shutting down the Kentucky Truck Plant costs Ford $27,000 a minute. Being a month behind could add to some real money, even for Tesla where they don't make nearly as many and nowhere near the profit per unit. KTP has about half as many employees as Tesla's Freemont plant and we crank out a Super Duty truck every 51 seconds. Trucks that cost as much or more as even high end Teslas and EVERY SINGLE ONE for a profit. Dearborn Truck, where they make F-150s is even faster, they push one out every 39 seconds and again, even the cheap stripped down models put money in the bank.

And yet somehow, there are genius fanboy investors who make TSLA worth more than Ford because...reasons. Yeah, EVs are the future, but but Elon's not.

/rant


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RTH10260
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Re: Tesla

#229

Post by RTH10260 » Sun Feb 10, 2019 6:36 pm

Notorial Dissent wrote:
Sun Feb 10, 2019 3:01 pm
I just can't see it flying in Europe, between shoddy craftsmanship, service, and delivery I just don't think they could give it away. I would also expect the taxes there to be a hinderance as well. I agree with the rest of your points as well.
I don't know much about the European car market, but Teslas have been in the past for managers to show off how "green" they were. Of course they can afford the European price tag that puts the Tesla in the upscale market. No extra custom taxes, many countries give EVs a significant reduction on road fees for EVs. Higher costs come as Tesla has to run their own technical European approval tests on critical parts and the final product as is hits the market. Rules for certain parts will be different in Europe than in the US, eg lighting, brakes (and I nearly added: emissions :shock: ).



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Mikedunford
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Re: Tesla

#230

Post by Mikedunford » Sun Feb 10, 2019 6:49 pm

RTH10260 wrote:
Sun Feb 10, 2019 6:36 pm
Notorial Dissent wrote:
Sun Feb 10, 2019 3:01 pm
I just can't see it flying in Europe, between shoddy craftsmanship, service, and delivery I just don't think they could give it away. I would also expect the taxes there to be a hinderance as well. I agree with the rest of your points as well.
I don't know much about the European car market, but Teslas have been in the past for managers to show off how "green" they were. Of course they can afford the European price tag that puts the Tesla in the upscale market. No extra custom taxes, many countries give EVs a significant reduction on road fees for EVs. Higher costs come as Tesla has to run their own technical European approval tests on critical parts and the final product as is hits the market. Rules for certain parts will be different in Europe than in the US, eg lighting, brakes (and I nearly added: emissions :shock: ).
I think I've seen more Teslas on the road in Europe than I've seen in the USA.



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Azastan
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Re: Tesla

#231

Post by Azastan » Sun Feb 10, 2019 7:37 pm

Mikedunford wrote:
Sun Feb 10, 2019 6:49 pm


I think I've seen more Teslas on the road in Europe than I've seen in the USA.
San Jose California seems to have thousands of them.

I've seen several in my small WA town, but we have a lot of Microsoft managers living here.



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Whip
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Re: Tesla

#232

Post by Whip » Sun Feb 10, 2019 7:46 pm

Azastan wrote:
Sun Feb 10, 2019 7:37 pm
Mikedunford wrote:
Sun Feb 10, 2019 6:49 pm


I think I've seen more Teslas on the road in Europe than I've seen in the USA.
San Jose California seems to have thousands of them.

I've seen several in my small WA town, but we have a lot of Microsoft managers living here.
there are quite a few here in NW Jersey.



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Re: Tesla

#233

Post by RTH10260 » Sun Feb 10, 2019 7:53 pm

Mikedunford wrote:
Sun Feb 10, 2019 6:49 pm
RTH10260 wrote:
Sun Feb 10, 2019 6:36 pm
Notorial Dissent wrote:
Sun Feb 10, 2019 3:01 pm
I just can't see it flying in Europe, between shoddy craftsmanship, service, and delivery I just don't think they could give it away. I would also expect the taxes there to be a hinderance as well. I agree with the rest of your points as well.
I don't know much about the European car market, but Teslas have been in the past for managers to show off how "green" they were. Of course they can afford the European price tag that puts the Tesla in the upscale market. No extra custom taxes, many countries give EVs a significant reduction on road fees for EVs. Higher costs come as Tesla has to run their own technical European approval tests on critical parts and the final product as is hits the market. Rules for certain parts will be different in Europe than in the US, eg lighting, brakes (and I nearly added: emissions :shock: ).
I think I've seen more Teslas on the road in Europe than I've seen in the USA.



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London may (still) have the upscale clients that is the target market ;)



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Sam the Centipede
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Re: Tesla

#234

Post by Sam the Centipede » Sun Feb 10, 2019 8:12 pm

RTH10260 wrote:
Sun Feb 10, 2019 7:53 pm
London may (still) have the upscale clients that is the target market ;)
London also has a central zone which cars are charged for entering, unless they are hybrids or electrics or (possibly) have a very low emission rating, which probably encourages uptake.

Thanks to Gregg for the insights, always interesting. :thumbs:

On the badly fitted panels etc. issues: German industry has always had a good reputation for quality in its production engineering but I think Europe more generally (Frsnce, Italy, UK, etc.) got the message when reliable Japanese cars took over their markets in the 1970s and 1980s.



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Re: Tesla

#235

Post by NotaPerson » Sun Feb 10, 2019 9:41 pm

I haven't followed the Tesla news closely, and hadn't bothered looking at this thread before yesterday. But then....

A few nights ago I watched an episode of "Dirty Money" (streams on Netflix) about Valeant Pharmaceuticals. It featured a woman named Fahmi Quadir. She ran a hedge fund or something that shorted Valeant back when everyone else on Wall Street was screaming "buy!". I can only assume she's now a very, very rich woman.

Her specialty is finding companies that she believes are engaging in fraud. She shorts the stock, then if and when the fraud is revealed, she and her investors make money. I had never heard of anyone specializing in this sort of thing. But her fierce intelligence and clear lack of tolerance for bullshit impressed the hell out me.

I couldn't help wondering what she may have her eye on now. So I googled and immediately saw this Bloomberg article from a few months ago. It seems she is now shorting....TESLA. :lol:
“It’s becoming more and more apparent that Tesla is having difficulties paying their bills,” Quadir said. “I saw a lot of the same with Valeant.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... la-falling

So out of curiosity I looked up the stock price. Right now it's $305. That's well below its 52-week high of $387. However, to my surprise it's also way above its low of $244. :eek2: WTF??

With all of the evident problems this company is having (noted right here in the past few pages), how in the hell is this possible? Does this company actually have anything significantly positive going for it? Or are the investors really as delusional as they appear to be? With the red flags waving all over the place (an FBI investigation, FFS), I just don't get it.


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Re: Tesla

#236

Post by Jcolvin2 » Sun Feb 10, 2019 10:08 pm

Whip wrote:
Sun Feb 10, 2019 7:46 pm
g


I think I've seen more Teslas on the road in Europe than I've seen in the USA.
San Jose California seems to have thousands of them.

I've seen several in my small WA town, but we have a lot of Microsoft managers living here.
there are quite a few here in NW Jersey.
I think almost half the new cars in my Seattle suburb are Teslas.



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Gregg
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Re: Tesla

#237

Post by Gregg » Mon Feb 11, 2019 1:31 am

Mikedunford wrote:
Sun Feb 10, 2019 6:49 pm
RTH10260 wrote:
Sun Feb 10, 2019 6:36 pm
Notorial Dissent wrote:
Sun Feb 10, 2019 3:01 pm
I just can't see it flying in Europe, between shoddy craftsmanship, service, and delivery I just don't think they could give it away. I would also expect the taxes there to be a hinderance as well. I agree with the rest of your points as well.
I don't know much about the European car market, but Teslas have been in the past for managers to show off how "green" they were. Of course they can afford the European price tag that puts the Tesla in the upscale market. No extra custom taxes, many countries give EVs a significant reduction on road fees for EVs. Higher costs come as Tesla has to run their own technical European approval tests on critical parts and the final product as is hits the market. Rules for certain parts will be different in Europe than in the US, eg lighting, brakes (and I nearly added: emissions :shock: ).
I think I've seen more Teslas on the road in Europe than I've seen in the USA.



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Really, that's interesting, and they have to be grey market because they just got approval to import them to Europe a few weeks ago. As mentioned, there are a lot af approvals needed to import a car into a new market and that's partially why not many North American cars are imported to Europe. Aside from them having different tastes in style, drivetrains and size, its also pretty much cheaper to design a market centric model based on a common platform as a starting point, than it is to adapt one of our models to European regulations.


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NMgirl
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Re: Tesla

#238

Post by NMgirl » Mon Feb 11, 2019 2:16 am

Tesla Taxis Comprised 70% Of The 1 Million Rides At Amsterdam Airport

https://insideevs.com/tesla-taxis-70-1- ... m-airport/

Tesla Sales in Europe Higher Than German Premium Brands


https://www.financialbuzz.com/tesla-inc ... um-brands/

Teslas are all over Europe. You see them everywhere.


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Sam the Centipede
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Re: Tesla

#239

Post by Sam the Centipede » Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:27 am

On the Teslas in Europe issue, I wondered about Norway, which is currently going for electric cars in a big way. I found a table of the top ten models based on current registrations at https://www.dinside.no/motor/na-er-det- ... e/70656259:

Code: Select all

Topp ti elbiler i Norge:

MODELL	ANTALL
1.	Nissan Leaf		49.823
2.	Volkswagen e-Golf	31.883
3.	BMW i3			19.740
4.	Tesla Model S		18.982
5.	Kia Soul		15.666
6.	Tesla Model X		11.124
7.	Volkswagen e-Up!	9.540
8.	Renault Zoe		8.609
9.	Hyundai Ioniq		5.888
10.	Mercedes-Benz B250E	5.241
Nissan Leaf dominates, but if Tesla's two models were combined their total of 30,106 would put them in second place. That's not unreasonable as a hack because all the other manufacturers are offering only a single popular model.

The Norsk Elbilforening (Norwegian Electric Car Association) reports that more than 200,000 electric cars were on the register by the end of 2018, but that's actually a small fraction of the 2.7M cars registered. (Source Over 200.000 elbiler i Norge – in Norwegian)

The government's Statistics Norway unit (known more prosaically in Norwegian as Statistisk sentralbyrå "Central statistical office", interesting switch of styles) analyzes this data and breaks it down by administrative region (kommune). One of the highest levels of registrations is Bærum kommune, next to Oslo (the capital city). I read a comment from a local pointing out that a lot of people working in Oslo's finance sector live in Bærum, and electric cars are currently exempt from the tolls payable every time a car is driven into central Oslo.



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Gregg
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Re: Tesla

#240

Post by Gregg » Mon Feb 11, 2019 5:54 pm

Okay, my mistake. I mis-read something and it was the Model 3 that was just approved in Europe, the other two have been there a while, obviously.


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