Stock Market

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RTH10260
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Stock Market

#1

Post by RTH10260 » Sat Dec 24, 2016 8:01 pm

Stocks Could Suffer As Trump Trade Policy Takes Shape
The incoming administration is signaling Trump’s campaign promises to revisit trade deals and even impose a tax on all imports are very much alive.
12/24/2016 11:48 am ET Rodrigo Campos

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The year-end stocks rally on the heels of the election of Donald Trump as U.S. president was built on expectations of reduced regulations, big tax cuts and a large fiscal stimulus.

Now signs are emerging from the Trump camp that harsher trade policies that could jeopardize the honeymoon are likely in the offing, and investors would be well advised to give those prospects more weight when gauging how much further an already pricey market has to run.

By naming China hawk Peter Navarro as head of a newly formed White House National Trade Council, the incoming administration is signaling Trump’s campaign promises to revisit trade deals and even impose a tax on all imports are very much alive.

Among the policies favored by Navarro and Trump’s pick for commerce secretary, Wilbur Ross, who has the president-elect’s ear on a range of economic issues, is a so-called border adjustment tax that is also included in House Speaker Paul Ryan’s “Better Way” tax-reform blueprint.

If implemented, economists at Deutsche Bank estimate the tax could send inflation far above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target and drive a 15 percent surge in the dollar.

Analysts calculate that, all else being equal, a 5 percent increase in the dollar translates into about a 3 percent negative earnings revision for the S&P 500 <.SPX> and a half-point drag on gross domestic product growth. The dollar index <.DXY> has already gained more than 5 percent since the U.S. election.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/sto ... a594587fee



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Re: Stock Market

#2

Post by Tiredretiredlawyer » Tue Feb 28, 2017 4:56 pm

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-targe ... SKBN16719S?
Target shares dive on earnings outlook, price cut plans

"They've struggled since Brian Cornell’s come on to figure out what to do with their grocery department ... I think Target’s turnaround could take a little bit longer than Wal-Mart."

Separately, CEO Cornell said he has been talking with the Trump administration to argue against a border tax that would raise the price of imports, including food like coffee and bananas.

"We are trying to make sure consumers are not waking up paying prices that are 15 or 20 or 25 percent higher," Cornell said. "And it wouldn’t bring jobs back to the United States because we don’t have factories that are ready to start manufacturing these products."


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RTH10260
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Re: Stock Market

#3

Post by RTH10260 » Tue Feb 28, 2017 5:59 pm

Tiredretiredlawyer wrote:http://www.reuters.com/article/us-targe ... SKBN16719S?
Target shares dive on earnings outlook, price cut plans

"They've struggled since Brian Cornell’s come on to figure out what to do with their grocery department ... I think Target’s turnaround could take a little bit longer than Wal-Mart."

Separately, CEO Cornell said he has been talking with the Trump administration to argue against a border tax that would raise the price of imports, including food like coffee and bananas.

"We are trying to make sure consumers are not waking up paying prices that are 15 or 20 or 25 percent higher," Cornell said. "And it wouldn’t bring jobs back to the United States because we don’t have factories that are ready to start manufacturing these products."
Teh Donald wants to "manufacture" bananas and coffee in the US?



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Re: Stock Market

#4

Post by Tiredretiredlawyer » Tue Feb 28, 2017 6:00 pm

RTH10260 wrote:
Tiredretiredlawyer wrote:http://www.reuters.com/article/us-targe ... SKBN16719S?
Target shares dive on earnings outlook, price cut plans

"They've struggled since Brian Cornell’s come on to figure out what to do with their grocery department ... I think Target’s turnaround could take a little bit longer than Wal-Mart."

Separately, CEO Cornell said he has been talking with the Trump administration to argue against a border tax that would raise the price of imports, including food like coffee and bananas.

"We are trying to make sure consumers are not waking up paying prices that are 15 or 20 or 25 percent higher," Cornell said. "And it wouldn’t bring jobs back to the United States because we don’t have factories that are ready to start manufacturing these products."
Teh Donald wants to "manufacture" bananas and coffee in the US?
He would probably suggest that.


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NotaPerson
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Re: Stock Market

#5

Post by NotaPerson » Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:04 pm

The Dow just closed over 800 points down today (little over 3%)

The Nasdaq closed down just over 4%.

Meager interest in a Treasury bond auction supposedly has something to do with it.


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Re: Stock Market

#6

Post by Slim Cognito » Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:15 pm

Has trump blamed Hillary yet?


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Re: Stock Market

#7

Post by ZekeB » Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:32 pm

Real Soon Now.


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Re: Stock Market

#8

Post by maydijo » Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:33 pm

It's Soros. He's had to sell some shares to pay off all the protesters, you know.



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Re: Stock Market

#9

Post by Addie » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:23 pm

Associated Press
Stocks suffer worst loss in 8 months; Dow sinks 831 points as tech companies plunge

U.S. stocks plunged to their worst loss in eight months on Wednesday as technology companies continued to drop. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 831 points.

The losses were widespread, and stocks that have been the biggest winners on the market the last few years, including technology companies and retailers, suffered steep declines. Apple and Amazon both had their worst day in two and a half years.

The Nasdaq composite, which has a high concentration of technology companies, had its biggest loss in more than two years.

Alec Young, managing director of global markets research at FTSE Russell, said investors fear that rising interest rates and growing expenses are going to erode company profits next year.

"The tax cuts juiced earnings this year and that's not sustainable," he said. "The market's starting to say that the glass may be half empty."



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Re: Stock Market

#10

Post by Addie » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:54 pm

New York Times
Stocks Plunge, as Fresh Tensions With China Batter Tech Shares

Stocks suffered their steepest drop in eight months on Wednesday, as investors continued to digest rising interest rates and previously high-flying tech shares tumbled amid growing tensions with China.

The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index dropped 3.3 percent, bringing the broad equity benchmark down 4.4 percent for the month. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, a key measure of borrowing costs, inched up to more than 3.24 percent during the trading day before declining.

Wednesday’s tumble marked the fifth-consecutive daily decline for the S. & P. 500, the longest string of down days since November 2016, according to research from Bespoke Investment Group. And the day’s drop was the sharpest since a market sell-off in February.

Then, like now, concerns about nascent inflation, rising interest rates and the potential for the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy drove the selling.

The recent rise in bond yields — which are now at levels last seen in 2011 — has again become a key concern for stock market investors.

Rising bond yields are something of a double-edged sword. They reflect the strength of the American economy, where unemployment is at 49-year lows. But the yields also serve as a baseline for key borrowing costs, including those for home mortgages.



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NotaPerson
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Re: Stock Market

#11

Post by NotaPerson » Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:03 pm

Another rough day. The Dow closed down over 500 points.


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Re: Stock Market

#12

Post by bob » Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:18 pm

NotaPerson wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:03 pm
Another rough day. The Dow closed down over 500 points.
Today's close was 25,053. At the start of 2018, the DJIA closed at 25,296.

Thanks, Obama.


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Re: Stock Market

#13

Post by Volkonski » Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:54 pm

Trump is blaming the Federal Reserve even though he appointed the current FR Chair. :roll:


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Re: Stock Market

#14

Post by tek » Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:16 pm

Trump might as well blame feral cats. He has zero clue.

As far as I can tell, the fed is doing exactly what the fed is supposed to be doing. Trump has no idea what the fed even is.

Maybe he got some good economic strategereys from Kanye at lunch. :sarcasm:


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Re: Stock Market

#15

Post by kate520 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:33 pm

Will the Treausury report that absolves China of currency manipulation calm the market?


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Re: Stock Market

#16

Post by ZekeB » Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:49 pm

Inflation is becoming a factor. Home mortgage rates are at a seven year high. How big of a train wreck has to happen before Thump wakes up? Oh wait, he knows so little about economics - he wouldn't notice.


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Re: Stock Market

#17

Post by Dan1100 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:02 pm

ZekeB wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:49 pm
Inflation is becoming a factor. Home mortgage rates are at a seven year high. How big of a train wreck has to happen before Thump wakes up? Oh wait, he knows so little about economics - he wouldn't notice.
Inflation is becoming a factor and an outside force (in this case tariffs) is raising costs artificially (instead of costs being controlled by demand). When did this happen before?
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Re: Stock Market

#18

Post by Notorial Dissent » Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:27 pm

The Dow drop is ugly, something I'm not happy to see.


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Re: Stock Market

#19

Post by Estiveo » Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:44 am

There's always a tweet...
Screenshot_2018-10-12-05-42-00.jpg
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Re: Stock Market

#20

Post by Whatever4 » Fri Oct 12, 2018 2:17 pm



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Re: Stock Market

#21

Post by RoadScholar » Fri Oct 12, 2018 3:32 pm

Snopes never says this one is fake... only the one saying the President should be "shot out of a cannon" if the Dow fell 1000 points.

(Although I should hardly be surprised if it were shown to be fake.)


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Re: Stock Market

#22

Post by RTH10260 » Fri Oct 12, 2018 3:35 pm

That was a 2015 twit ;)



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Re: Stock Market

#23

Post by Addie » Wed Oct 24, 2018 7:14 pm

WaPo
Dow plunges more than 600 points in another day of losses, officially wiping out its 2018 gains



The Dow Jones industrial average dove more than 600 points Wednesday as another wave of volatility swept through U.S. financial markets.

The blue-chip index bobbed in the red most of the session, dragged down by a weak housing report and a beleaguered technology sector that continues to show weakness. Tech stocks are down 7 percent this month.

The Dow’s drop was a sharp reversal from its upward early-morning momentum that came off of a strong earnings report from aircraft maker Boeing. It fell 606 points, or 2.4 percent, to close at 24,584.50 — its 13th loss in 15 sessions.

The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index was off 3 percent in afternoon trading. The tech-heavy Nasdaq was taking heavier losses, down 4.4 percent. It is in correction territory, down 10.3 percent from its September 2018 high.



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Re: Stock Market

#24

Post by RVInit » Thu Oct 25, 2018 3:59 am

Addie wrote:
Wed Oct 24, 2018 7:14 pm
WaPo
Dow plunges more than 600 points in another day of losses, officially wiping out its 2018 gains


:snippity:
MAGA!


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Re: Stock Market

#25

Post by Addie » Sun Oct 28, 2018 1:44 pm

Bloomberg OpEd
Trump Is Now Bad for the Stock Market

U.S. equity valuations are lower than they were before the election.


The Trump bump is turning into a significant Trump discount.

That’s been more than evident of late. The S&P 500 Index fell for the first three days of the week, culminating in a 3 percent plunge Wednesday as worries over China’s economy and President Donald Trump’s trade-war maneuvers morphed into a general sense of gloom about the global economic outlook. On Thursday stocks rebounded, but the rockiness has added to a growing sense that the market’s foundation is less than stable, and that Trump’s trade steps are what is testing the cracks.

All told, the S&P 500 Index is now 6.5 percent cheaper than it was before Trump was elected president, with the gauge trading at 15.7 times next year’s expected earnings, down from just under 17 in early November 2016. From inauguration day, stock-market valuations are down a little more than 9 percent. By comparison, they rose 16 percent in Barack Obama’s first two years in office. ...

Many had long argued that the market looked overvalued, even before Trump was elected. And in the months after the election, stocks did zoom to new highs. But in terms of valuation, the market has given back all of that and then some. The reason is in part due to higher interest rates and inflation, both of which, again, were expected to happen long before Donald Trump. Corporate operating margins, likely a big factor in higher stock-market valuations, are still near their peak, but with a tight labor market many expect that to turn as well.

Nonetheless, at least part of the sell-off in stocks does seem to be Trump-related. Stock-market valuations peaked in mid-December last year, just days before the Republicans’ tax cut was signed, at 19 times the next four quarters of reported earnings. Worries about a trade war have been a big part of that drop. The biggest portion of the drop-off in stock market valuations happened in late January and early February, when President Trump made clear that he was going to go ahead with tariffs and other measures to block trade with China and others.



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