ACA Sabotage/Trumpcare ....

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Slim Cognito
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ACA Sabotage/Trumpcare ....

#1

Post by Slim Cognito » Fri Nov 11, 2016 4:59 am

Title changed again, hopefully for the last time.

Of all the horrors associated with a Trump administration, the two that worry me the most are Obamacare repeal and another war. This will deal with the Obamacare repeal. I hope the word Obamacare doesn't offend. Personally I like it. I know the republicans coined it as a slur, but I've reclaimed it, as did President Obama himself, Obama Cares.

Trump has made it sound, at least to me and probably many of his supporters, that his repeal of Obamacare will be instantaneous, as in, he signs...something and it goes away that day. I suspect he believes it will happen that way. A friend's insurance broker told her it's not that simple. It will take some time to make the repeal happen. I look forward to Foggy weighing in.

Couldn't sleep so I read a few articles about Trump and the reality of an ACA repeal. I wish I'd marked the links but decided to create this thread after the fact so I'll summarize what I read.

All articles pointed out the difficulty in outright repeal, as in dumping 20 million people's insurance. And I read that the high raises in premiums caused a lot of people to vote for Trump, apparently not realizing how much more those premiums will be without the subsidy. They also pointed out that ripping unpopular parts of the ACA out while salvaging the popular parts would cause the entire program to collapse. One said even using the reconciliation process would take months. And they point out that, after eight freakin' years, the republicans haven't put anything coherent together that can be graded or compared to the current system.

One article ended with what seemed reassuring when I first read it, that once you buy your 2017 policy, it can't be taken from you. That calmed me enough to lie down again, whereupon I immediately realized what good is the policy if I can't pay the premium without the subsidy.

So here I am again, and that is my first question: Once people have signed up for 2017 through the marketplace and been told what their subsidy will be, will Trump & Co. be able to revoke the subsidy without much trouble or delay? Because if people lose that subsidy, they lose the policy for nonpayment, and isn't the end result the same - no more medical insurance?



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Orlylicious
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Re: ACA/Obamacare Repeal

#2

Post by Orlylicious » Fri Nov 11, 2016 5:11 am

It's going to take a lot of time to do it and if that's the Big Idea, to take away health insurance, they won't have time for much else and they'll piss off a lot of voters. I love calling it Trumpcare now.
Whether through regulation or legislation, there are risks to taking down Obamacare.

Dismantling an exceedingly complex law that has become baked into the health care system would add uncertainty and frustration to the insurance companies running Obamacare plans.

“For the last four years, every problem of the health care system has been blamed on Obamacare,” said Tim Jost, a legal expert and strong supporter of the law. “From here on out it’s going to be blamed on Trumpcare — and we’ll see how that works out.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/o ... war-231164


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Re: ACA/Obamacare Repeal

#3

Post by Adrianinflorida » Fri Nov 11, 2016 5:15 am

That's what amazes me the most
"Obamacare rates seem high"

Dont they remember how much it was for somone to buy insurance without employer or government contributions prior to O'Care?



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Re: ACA/Obamacare Repeal

#4

Post by esseff44 » Fri Nov 11, 2016 5:21 am

As before, the best hope for stopping any of the more draconian measures is the Senate. Even with the minority, there are a few moderate GOP Senators such as Susan Collins, Jeff Flake, Lisa Murkowski and others in purple states where there might be a lot of pressure from constituents who would be adversely affected by drastic changes to the ACA.

I haven't seen any research on how many people in red states are better off because of ACA and also can pressure their Senators. Surely there will be hearings before a vote on any repeal and there will lines of people with stories of how many lives have been saved and bankruptcies due due to illness have been averted. They might have to add a public option after all since so many companies left the state markets.

These are straws to grasp at. No matter what, it will be a fight.



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Re: ACA/Obamacare Repeal

#5

Post by Orlylicious » Fri Nov 11, 2016 5:37 am

CNN ‏@CNN 9m9 minutes ago
Trump may have listed it as a "100 days" priority, but it could take months or years to replace Obamacare
Repealing Obamacare? Here's how Congress could do it
By Ted Barrett, Deirdre Walsh and Manu Raju, CNN
Updated 9:10 PM ET, Thu November 10, 2016

(CNN)President-elect Donald Trump and the Republicans who control Congress say "repealing and replacing" Obamacare is their top legislative priority.
Republicans can repeal significant portions through a budget procedure that avoids a Senate filibuster and allows them to pass it on a party-line vote. But they cannot repeal all of it that way. And if they want to replace Obamacare, that's even harder. They will need 60 votes (and Democratic support) to overcome a filibuster.

So it may be listed as a "100 days" priority, but it's complicated and likely to take several months. Even if they can get Democratic support, passing a replacement bill could take up two years, aides say.

That's because the GOP doesn't have the 60-seat supermajority in the Senate needed to overcome a filibuster that Democrats plan to launch against the repeal effort. In January, when the new Congress starts, Republicans may hold as many as 52 seats.

To get around that blockade, Republicans could use a process called "budget reconciliation," which would allow the Senate to dismantle large chunks, but not the entire law with just 51 Senate votes. Those sections are related to taxes and spending -- such as subsidies to buy health insurance, tax credits, penalties for not having insurance, and the expansion of Medicaid.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/10/politics/ ... d=31043726
:boxing:


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listeme
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Re: ACA/Obamacare Repeal

#6

Post by listeme » Fri Nov 11, 2016 6:15 am

This is terrifying me. Verbie got laid off (yesterday!) (wtf is wrong with this week!) and obamacare is our only real light for getting through until something else comes along.

I'm legit terrified.


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Re: ACA/Obamacare Repeal

#7

Post by Suranis » Fri Nov 11, 2016 6:41 am

Oh god Listme, thats terrifying *hug*

Xposting from the hopeful thread

I Have some thoughts on Obamacare. I may copy these into a new thread later.

A clue as to what Paul Ryan actually wants to do is actually his budget plans as Romneys VP. If you recall he wanted to eliminate Obamacare and run a No deficit Budget. But when people dug into his published plans, they found an interesting wrinkle. You see he didnt ACTUALLY want to eliminate Obamacare. Oh no. What he wanted to do was eliminate half of it, namely the parts to do with health care. He wanted to KEEP the taxes and other things that raised the money to fund Obamacare, and use THAT to pay for his tax cuts to rich people.

And that means that if he wants to do the same, and lets face it he does, then that means he has to pass a brand new bill to do it. A blanket removal of Obamacare would remove all the revenue thats going to the undeserving, but would probably be faster and easier to pass. A partial repeal would mean a harder fight than he probably wants or intends, and that gives the Democrats an opportunity to go out (stuck record plays now) and tell people what a bit of a slight of hand Ryan is playing. The Republicans, as the first thing they want to do, is protect RAISED TAXES??? They DON'T ACTUALLY want to repeal all of Obamacare but pass a new funding bill?

The TV Media would rather cut off their lips than report that, but it would be a real shock to the system for the Republican voters if it could be told to them, and if the Orange octopus was forced to condemn the GOP it would be a further humiliation, and force them into an open fight with the molester in chief, over keeping some of Obamacare alive.

So, an opportunity there, if Democrats can get the message out there, and they are better tacticians than me.


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Slim Cognito
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Re: ACA/Obamacare Repeal

#8

Post by Slim Cognito » Fri Nov 11, 2016 7:06 am

Suranis wrote: A clue as to what Paul Ryan actually wants to do is actually his budget plans as Romneys VP. If you recall he wanted to eliminate Obamacare and run a No deficit Budget. But when people dug into his published plans, they found an interesting wrinkle. You see he didnt ACTUALLY want to eliminate Obamacare. Oh no. WHat he wanted to do was eliminate half of it, namely the parts to do with health care. He wanted to KEEP the takes and other things that raised the money to fund Obamacare, and use THAT to pay for his tax cuts to rich people.
I do remember that now. Thanks for the reminder. Also too, I saw something overnight about Ryan back to the Medicare voucher/private insurance thing. I wonder how that will go over with the older Trump crowd.



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Re: ACA/Obamacare Repeal

#9

Post by phelana » Fri Nov 11, 2016 7:07 am

I just saw a tweet that said Ryan plans to privatize Medicare. How is that going to play with constituents?


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Re: ACA/Obamacare Repeal

#10

Post by phelana » Fri Nov 11, 2016 7:08 am

Most right leaning come that I know really like their Medicare.


Beatrice: Sigh no more, ladies, sigh no more. Men were deceivers ever. One foot in sea and one on shore, to one thing constant never. Then sigh not so but let them go and be you blithe and bonny, converting all your sounds of woe into hey nonny nonny.

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Suranis
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Re: ACA/Obamacare Repeal

#11

Post by Suranis » Fri Nov 11, 2016 7:09 am

Keep your Corporations off my Medicare!!!!

Heh, if they think medical costs have gone up with Obamacare, they haven't seen anything yet under a privatised health care system.


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Slim Cognito
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Re: ACA/Obamacare Repeal

#12

Post by Slim Cognito » Fri Nov 11, 2016 7:15 am

Maybe I should change the title to acknowledge Ryan's proposed Medicare reform?


But somebody's going to have to tell me how. I'm not seeing it.



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Suranis
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Re: ACA/Obamacare Repeal

#13

Post by Suranis » Fri Nov 11, 2016 7:17 am

I think the title is fine, but you can change the title by simply editing the title on the first post.


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Slim Cognito
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Re: ACA/Obamacare Repeal

#14

Post by Slim Cognito » Fri Nov 11, 2016 7:24 am

Here's an article about Ryan wanting to privatize. I assume it's the same one he pushed before, vouchers, which didn't cover diddly.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/20 ... is-on.html



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Re: ACA/Obamacare Repeal & Medicare Reform

#15

Post by Slim Cognito » Fri Nov 11, 2016 8:38 am

As for the Medicare voucher thing, I'm guessing they'll probably grandfather current recipients so they don't get their bloomers in a knot?



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Re: ACA/Obamacare Repeal & Medicare Reform

#16

Post by Janny in Texas » Fri Nov 11, 2016 8:40 am

What I've been reading about his Medicare plan is this. If you are 55 or younger, you will never have Medicare -- only private insurance. If you have a pre-existing condition, tough luck I guess. For those already on Medicare (until it is finally ended) you will have a choice of continuing with the public plan or buying a private plan. If you stay with the public plan, premiums will probably go up 50%. I think what we are seeing with his health care plan is that most Americans will be uninsured due to unaffordability. But, we do have the best health care system in the world and we are exceptional.



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Re: ACA/Obamacare Repeal & Medicare Reform

#17

Post by Slim Cognito » Fri Nov 11, 2016 8:56 am

Janny in Texas wrote:What I've been reading about his Medicare plan is this. If you are 55 or younger, you will never have Medicare -- only private insurance. If you have a pre-existing condition, tough luck I guess. For those already on Medicare (until it is finally ended) you will have a choice of continuing with the public plan or buying a private plan. If you stay with the public plan, premiums will probably go up 50%. I think what we are seeing with his health care plan is that most Americans will be uninsured due to unaffordability. But, we do have the best health care system in the world and we are exceptional.
What good is the best health care system in the world if you can't afford to use it? And, I believe, France is considered to have the best health care system in the world.



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Re: ACA/Obamacare Repeal & Medicare Reform

#18

Post by Janny in Texas » Fri Nov 11, 2016 9:34 am

Slim Cognito wrote:
Janny in Texas wrote:What I've been reading about his Medicare plan is this. If you are 55 or younger, you will never have Medicare -- only private insurance. If you have a pre-existing condition, tough luck I guess. For those already on Medicare (until it is finally ended) you will have a choice of continuing with the public plan or buying a private plan. If you stay with the public plan, premiums will probably go up 50%. I think what we are seeing with his health care plan is that most Americans will be uninsured due to unaffordability. But, we do have the best health care system in the world and we are exceptional.
What good is the best health care system in the world if you can't afford to use it? And, I believe, France is considered to have the best health care system in the world.
That was sarcasm.



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Re: ACA/Obamacare Repeal & Medicare Reform

#19

Post by Sam the Centipede » Fri Nov 11, 2016 9:51 am

Janny in Texas wrote: :snippity:

That was sarcasm.
Mmm... given the horrors of the past few days, and the fragile nerves of the Fogbow residents, I think everybody would be well advised to use the sarcasm graphic when appropriate! I think TFB might be rather irony-impaired and sarcasm-stultified for a few weeks.

Perhaps the Republicans need a snappy motto to describe their approach to repeal of the ACA: I suggest Not Healthcare But Wealthcare.



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Re: ACA/Obamacare Repeal

#20

Post by RVInit » Fri Nov 11, 2016 9:58 am

Slim Cognito wrote:
Suranis wrote: A clue as to what Paul Ryan actually wants to do is actually his budget plans as Romneys VP. If you recall he wanted to eliminate Obamacare and run a No deficit Budget. But when people dug into his published plans, they found an interesting wrinkle. You see he didnt ACTUALLY want to eliminate Obamacare. Oh no. WHat he wanted to do was eliminate half of it, namely the parts to do with health care. He wanted to KEEP the takes and other things that raised the money to fund Obamacare, and use THAT to pay for his tax cuts to rich people.
I do remember that now. Thanks for the reminder. Also too, I saw something overnight about Ryan back to the Medicare voucher/private insurance thing. I wonder how that will go over with the older Trump crowd.
IIRC they are grandfathered in. It won't affect anyone currently getting Medicare, just those of us, like me, too old to earn anything else, and save much more. My age group is so fucked it's not only not even funny, it's worse than crying over. We will see massive numbers of suicide among my age group as soon as we can no longer work.


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Re: ACA/Obamacare Repeal & Medicare Reform

#21

Post by NotaPerson » Fri Nov 11, 2016 12:21 pm

Though concerned, I'm not as scared and pessimistic as some of you. I'll be watching what happens very, very closely, and I'm taking a wait-and-see attitude.

This issue definitely affects me. I'm enjoying early semi-retirement in my mid-50s, and I'm covered by a health plan purchased through my blue state's exchange. Although I've benefited from the subsidy the past couple of years, I don't expect to make enough money next year to qualify for it - not only does making too much money disqualify you from a subsidy, making too little money can disqualify you as well. Technically, I think I'll qualify for Medicaid in 2017. But I'm not going to go on it, since I know that Medicaid isn't meant for people like me. I'm in that somewhat rare portion of the population who is "low income" but has "reasonably high assets." I won't be happy about paying $460/month next year (for a plan with a $6000 deductible), but that's what I'm going to do. I certainly am happy that I can at at least afford to pay it out of my savings.

And I do have a pre-existing condition, though it's one that costs almost nothing to treat. Chronic low-grade depression. It costs all of $40 a year for a generic med that keeps the blues under control very effectively. I would really, really, hate to think this could keep me from getting insurance.

For the time being, I'm willing to believe that Trump and his fellow Republicans will NOT want people with pre-existing health conditions to be excluded from health insurance. This is an extraordinarily popular component of the ACA. Will the mandate requiring everyone to pay into the system by purchasing health insurance remain in place? If not, the system comes crashing down (as someone else noted) if health insurance companies are required to accept people with pre-existing conditions. So maybe the mandate will stay in place. Who knows? We'll see.

Paul Ryan has spoken of tax credits to help people pay for health insurance. Of course, a tax credit and a subsidy amount to the same damn thing from a governing budget perspective, but they are perceived very, very differently by ordinary people. One is viewed as a handout, the other as a tax-savings. Regardless, such tax credits would help low-income folks pay for their health insurance.

So I'm willing to believe that all is not lost. Yet.

EDIT TO ADD: Thanks for starting this thread, as I expect it will help me (and many others) monitor what happens on this issue the next few years.


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Skip Intro
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Re: ACA/Obamacare Repeal

#22

Post by Skip Intro » Fri Nov 11, 2016 12:22 pm

Orlylicious wrote:It's going to take a lot of time to do it and if that's the Big Idea, to take away health insurance, they won't have time for much else and they'll piss off a lot of voters. I love calling it Trumpcare now.
I like the term TrumpNoCare myself.


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phelana
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Re: ACA/Obamacare Repeal & Medicare Reform

#23

Post by phelana » Fri Nov 11, 2016 1:18 pm

NotaPerson wrote: And I do have a pre-existing condition, though it's one that costs almost nothing to treat. Chronic low-grade depression. It costs all of $40 a year for a generic med that keeps the blues under control very effectively. I would really, really, hate to think this could keep me from getting insurance.
If they take away the pre-existing mandate, that will definitely keep you from buying private insurance. I have a rejection letter from pre-ACA. If you had taken an antidepressant in the last 5 years, automatic rejection.

Heck my 5 year old was rejected for a lazy eye. Hubs because he didn't meet the height/weight charts and he got a cortisone shot for a stubbed toe. They seriously mentioned the stubbed toe in the rejection letter. The only one in the family that any insurance company in Oregon would insure was our 2 yr old.

Funny thing was that one of the companies that rejected us, would insure us under the state plan....if only we could win the lottery to get in and afford the $1200 a month premiums on no income while he was in nursing school.

So I do not expect anyone who has seen a doctor to be insurable if they take away the pre-existing clause.


Beatrice: Sigh no more, ladies, sigh no more. Men were deceivers ever. One foot in sea and one on shore, to one thing constant never. Then sigh not so but let them go and be you blithe and bonny, converting all your sounds of woe into hey nonny nonny.

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Re: ACA/Obamacare Repeal & Medicare Reform

#24

Post by MN-Skeptic » Fri Nov 11, 2016 1:33 pm

Trump doesn't care about ANYTHING other than what makes people cheer for him. He has absolutely no empathy for anyone. Don't look to him to reject any health care bill which Congress passes.

What we have to do is look to Congress. All Representatives will be up for election along with 1/3 of the Senators. They are the ones we have to convince that their jobs are on the line if they mess with our health insurance.



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Re: ACA/Obamacare Repeal & Medicare Reform

#25

Post by dunstvangeet » Fri Nov 11, 2016 2:01 pm

MN-Skeptic wrote:Trump doesn't care about ANYTHING other than what makes people cheer for him. He has absolutely no empathy for anyone. Don't look to him to reject any health care bill which Congress passes.

What we have to do is look to Congress. All Representatives will be up for election along with 1/3 of the Senators. They are the ones we have to convince that their jobs are on the line if they mess with our health insurance.
The problem, at least on the Senate side, is it's all the Democrats up for election.

In the 2018 races, Democrats have 25 senate seats up for election, Republicans have 8. Out of the 8 that Republicans have, here are their states: Arizona (Flake), Mississippi (Wicker), Nebraska (Fischer), Nevada (Heller), Tennessee (Corker), Texas (Cruz), Utah (Hatch - retiring), and Wyoming (Barrasso). Out of these 8 seats, these are states that Clinton won: Nevada (Heller).

On the other hand, Democrats have to defend the following states: California (Feinstein), Connecticut (Murphy), Delaware (Carper), Florida (Nelson), Hawaii (Hirono), Indiana (Donnelly), Maine (King), Maryland (Cardin), Massachusetts (Warren), Michigan (Stabenow), Minnesota (Klobuchar), Missouri (McCaskill), Montana (Tester), New Jersey (Menendez), New Mexico (Heinrich), New York (Gillibrand), North Dakota (Heitkamp), Ohio (Brown), Pennsylvania (Casey), Rhode Island (Whitehouse), Vermont (Sanders), Virginia (Kaine), Washington (Cantwell), West Virginia (Manchin), and Wisconsin (Baldwin). These are all states that Trump won: Florida (Nelson), Indiana (Donnelley), Michigan (Stabenow), Missouri (McCaskill), Montana (Tester), North Dakota (Heitkamp), Ohio (Brown), Pennsylvania (Casey), West Virginia (Manchin), and Wisconsin (Baldwin). There's also a few on there that might be close as well such as Virginia (Kaine).

So, my guess is that Republicans will expand their lead in the Senate in 2018. Even if the Republicans really screw everything up, there's only really 2-3 states that Democrats can even make a play for (Arizona, Nevada, and Possibly Tennessee).



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