2018-2019 Government Shutdown

BBFlatt
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Re: 2018-2019 Government Shutdown

#826

Post by BBFlatt » Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:38 am

[/quote]
I haven't done the math, but assuming all furloughed workers apply for unemployment, I wonder what that looks like on the jobs report?
[/quote]

Most federal employees will probably not file for unemployment, at least not for a while. If/when the shutdown is over, and if Congress approves retroactive pay (as they have with every previous shutdown) then any unemployment compensation will have to be repaid; so filing for unemployment should be a last resort (although some will reach that point fairly quickly).

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Suranis
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Re: 2018-2019 Government Shutdown

#827

Post by Suranis » Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:44 am

Of course, with everyone furloughed, who will process their application for unemployment...

(ok I have no idea if unemployment is a state thing and therefore would not be affected, but this Catch 22 thing occurred to me and would be a shame not to use it)
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Danraft
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Re: 2018-2019 Government Shutdown

#828

Post by Danraft » Fri Jan 11, 2019 7:38 am

neonzx wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:03 am
Danraft wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 5:31 am
Sam the Centipede wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 5:20 am
If it's per all workers then it shows the dependence of those states on federal funding, despite their claims of self-reliance, and that the collateral effect on the economic activity in those states will be very bad.
I haven't done the math, but assuming all furloughed workers apply for unemployment, I wonder what that looks like on the jobs report?
It has to be for all workers. Those western states are relatively sparse in population compared to others. I think it's too soon to see the impact reflected in the jobs / unemployment reports as of yet.
A CNN article
Washington (CNN Business)Regardless of how well the American economy is doing, the January jobs report might be ugly.

If the government shutdown lasts through next week, nearly half of the 800,000 workers who have been furloughed will be counted as unemployed. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics bases its report on a survey of workers taken during the pay period that contains the 12th of each month. That's this Saturday, and many pay periods end on the 19th.
The employees who are working without pay will be counted as employed. But if the remaining furloughed workers end up being counted as unemployed, January could be the first month that jobs declined since September 2010.
And the decline could be comparatively large. The biggest seasonally adjusted, month-over-month loss during the Great Recession was in March 2009, when 802,000 jobs were wiped out. The largest monthly job loss on record, 1.97 million, was in September 1945 as America's wartime economy came to a halt.
And, yes, the trickle down is worth noting.
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Mikedunford
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Re: 2018-2019 Government Shutdown

#829

Post by Mikedunford » Fri Jan 11, 2019 7:38 am

Suranis wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:44 am
Of course, with everyone furloughed, who will process their application for unemployment...

(ok I have no idea if unemployment is a state thing and therefore would not be affected, but this Catch 22 thing occurred to me and would be a shame not to use it)
It's a state thing.
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neonzx
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Re: 2018-2019 Government Shutdown

#830

Post by neonzx » Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:17 am

Mikedunford wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 7:38 am
Suranis wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:44 am
(ok I have no idea if unemployment is a state thing and therefore would not be affected, but this Catch 22 thing occurred to me and would be a shame not to use it)
It's a state thing.
It is. And some states weekly benefit max out at near the federal poverty level for a single person, regardless of household size or amount of lost wages.
To which Trump replied, Fuck the law. I don't give a fuck about the law. I want my fucking money.

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neonzx
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Re: 2018-2019 Government Shutdown

#831

Post by neonzx » Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:43 am

TheHill: Wall Street Journal editorial: Conservatives 'could live to regret' Trump emergency declaration
Editors at The Wall Street Journal warned Friday that Republicans could end up with regrets if President Trump declares a national emergency to get his funding for a border wall, warning that Democrats could then use the measure "whenever it is politically expedient."

In an editorial, the conservative newspaper's staff warned that such a decision would likely open the door to future use of national emergency declarations by Democrats, including on issues such as gun violence and climate change.

"If Mr. Trump did win in court, a President Elizabeth Warren might take the precedent as license to circumvent Congress whenever it is politically expedient," the editorial warned. "Rising carbon emissions or even income inequality could be declared national emergencies."

The newspaper went on to argue that Trump would be on sounder legal footing than his predecessor, former President Obama, was when the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program was implemented by executive order, but that the president should not use a national emergency to fulfill a "campaign promise." :snippity:
To which Trump replied, Fuck the law. I don't give a fuck about the law. I want my fucking money.

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Volkonski
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Re: 2018-2019 Government Shutdown

#832

Post by Volkonski » Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:31 am

Scott Wong

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Miami International Airport closing a terminal today due to TSA officers calling in sick during government shutdown. Watch to see if other airports follow suit. Today, 800,000 federal employees will NOT receive their regular paychecks b/c of shutdown.
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Re: 2018-2019 Government Shutdown

#833

Post by Adrianinflorida » Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:40 am

Volkonski wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:31 am
Scott Wong

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Miami International Airport closing a terminal today due to TSA officers calling in sick during government shutdown. Watch to see if other airports follow suit. Today, 800,000 federal employees will NOT receive their regular paychecks b/c of shutdown.
I make a pretty good salary, enough to cover mortgage and 2 cars, 3 kids. I know that missing a paycheck or two would make it difficult to even get to work. So, yeah, the relatively low paid TSA agents who missed a check today, will start missing more days

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Volkonski
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Re: 2018-2019 Government Shutdown

#834

Post by Volkonski » Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:44 am

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Dem-controlled House votes today on its fourth bill of the week to reopen parts of the government. Today's bill would reopen the Interior Department, which includes the national park system.
Image“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.”
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Re: 2018-2019 Government Shutdown

#835

Post by Volkonski » Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:01 am

Damian Paletta

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No pay on payday.

Imagine selling your child's toys on Craigslist to make ends meet during the shutdown.

These people don't have to imagine it.

They are doing it.
:(

https://t.co/lD940ymkPE

In the old days they would have taken the toys to a pawn shop. Also :(
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GlimDropper
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Re: 2018-2019 Government Shutdown

#836

Post by GlimDropper » Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:17 am

This both surprises and angers me:

Court orders FTC to proceed in MOBE case without lawyers (???)

MOBE stands for My Online Business Empire, a mid ticket pyramid scheme that raked in several hundred million.
Trump’s government shutdown has wreaked havoc on scheduling for active FTC lawsuits.

One such lawsuit is FTC vs. MOBE, in which a Judge has bizarrely ordered the FTC to continue trying without lawyers.

Owing to Trump’s shutdown, on December 31st the FTC filed a motion requesting a stay in the MOBE case.

<Snip>

Prior to filing their motion the FTC obtained consensus from the MOBE defendants, none of whom objected.

The FTC’s motion was granted on January 2nd, staying all deadlines and ordering a status report filed every 30 days from January 18th.

On January 9th, Judge Dalton Jr. issued a new order, vacating his previous January 2nd order.

The reason for the reversal?
The Court, as a practice, does not get involved in disputes or uncertainties between lawyers and their clients regarding the payment of their fees.

Lawyers appear for clients as officers of the Court and are obligated to discharge their responsibilities unless and until relieved of those obligations by Court order.

That the Congress of the United States has failed to discharge its constitutional obligation to provide the funding necessary for its lawyers to be paid does not warrant subjecting these Defendants to an indeterminable holding period and lack of finality to these proceedings.

Neither does it somehow require or warrant the Court abdicate its own constitutional obligation to exercise the judicial power of the United States pursuant to Article III of the Constitution.

These affected consumers are no less in need of consumer protection (nor less entitled to it) simply because the Government does not have the will to pay its lawyers.


Full article available here.
So, the prosecution moves forward whether the attorneys for the FTC get paid or not. Is this in any way a (relatively) common thing?

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Kendra
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Re: 2018-2019 Government Shutdown

#837

Post by Kendra » Fri Jan 11, 2019 11:14 am

ETA: moving to border wall thread. :bag:

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Kendra
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Re: 2018-2019 Government Shutdown

#838

Post by Kendra » Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:17 pm

:brickwallsmall: :brickwallsmall: :brickwallsmall:

https://www.axios.com/state-department- ... gn=organic

The State Department is flying every U.S. ambassador from around the world to Washington next week, regardless of whether the government remains shut down, according to two internal emails leaked to Axios.

Why it matters: The State Department has been under financial strain during the shutdown, with employees on unpaid furlough and some resources halted.

The organizers of the global Chiefs of Missions (COM) conference — held from Jan. 16–17 — conceded in their internal email that “under the current circumstances” meetings with members of Congress “cannot be guaranteed.”

Between the lines: A State Department spokesman told me they’re persisting with the conference for national security reasons.
•But a former senior State Department official told Axios that, while COM “is a good convening to get everyone on the same page and build morale and relationships within the department … it’s absurd to argue a COM is crucial to our safety and security. That does not pass the laugh test.”
•A second former senior State Department official told Axios that when the government shut down in 2013 the department was forced to postpone an important conference for its Public Affairs Officers until after a spending bill was passed.
•Meanwhile, President Trump announced yesterday that he’s canceling his planned trip to the World Economic Forum in Davos as a result of the shutdown. He was scheduled to leave Jan. 21 — 10 days from now.

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Re: 2018-2019 Government Shutdown

#839

Post by Volkonski » Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:28 pm

ABC News Politics

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NEW: Group of Republican senators introduce legislation "that will permanently prevent the federal government from shutting down" by creating an automatic continuing resolution in event budget negotiations fail
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Image“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.”
― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace

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Danraft
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Re: 2018-2019 Government Shutdown

#840

Post by Danraft » Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:39 pm

Volkonski wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:28 pm
ABC News Politics

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NEW: Group of Republican senators introduce legislation "that will permanently prevent the federal government from shutting down" by creating an automatic continuing resolution in event budget negotiations fail
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Amen.
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Mikedunford
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Re: 2018-2019 Government Shutdown

#841

Post by Mikedunford » Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:45 pm

Bad, bad, bad idea.

If that passes, a Democrat wins in 2020, and the Democrats don't take back the Senate, we'll be stuck at current spending until 2022, or 2024, or - you get the point.
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Sugar Magnolia
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Re: 2018-2019 Government Shutdown

#842

Post by Sugar Magnolia » Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:47 pm

Mikedunford wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:45 pm
Bad, bad, bad idea.

If that passes, a Democrat wins in 2020, and the Democrats don't take back the Senate, we'll be stuck at current spending until 2022, or 2024, or - you get the point.
Thanks. I had a gut feeling that was a bad idea but wasn't sure why.

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Re: 2018-2019 Government Shutdown

#843

Post by RTH10260 » Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:07 pm

GlimDropper wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:17 am
This both surprises and angers me:

Court orders FTC to proceed in MOBE case without lawyers (???)
► Show Spoiler
The reason for the reversal?
The Court, as a practice, does not get involved in disputes or uncertainties between lawyers and their clients regarding the payment of their fees.

Lawyers appear for clients as officers of the Court and are obligated to discharge their responsibilities unless and until relieved of those obligations by Court order.

That the Congress of the United States has failed to discharge its constitutional obligation to provide the funding necessary for its lawyers to be paid does not warrant subjecting these Defendants to an indeterminable holding period and lack of finality to these proceedings.

Neither does it somehow require or warrant the Court abdicate its own constitutional obligation to exercise the judicial power of the United States pursuant to Article III of the Constitution.

These affected consumers are no less in need of consumer protection (nor less entitled to it) simply because the Government does not have the will to pay its lawyers.


Full article available here.
So, the prosecution moves forward whether the attorneys for the FTC get paid or not. Is this in any way a (relatively) common thing?
[/quote]

When court assigned lawyers in criminal cases can work with minimal court granted salary I don't see why the government lawyers should not work, especially when they will get paid later. The main issue with this order is that the government lawyer will not have his assistants and helpers at hand when they are also furloughed. A private attorney gets to pay their staff out of the minimalistic court grant.

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Jim
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Re: 2018-2019 Government Shutdown

#844

Post by Jim » Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:09 pm

Mikedunford wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:45 pm
Bad, bad, bad idea.

If that passes, a Democrat wins in 2020, and the Democrats don't take back the Senate, we'll be stuck at current spending until 2022, or 2024, or - you get the point.
Didn't we have something like this before the pubs canned it during the Clinton years?

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Danraft
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Re: 2018-2019 Government Shutdown

#845

Post by Danraft » Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:10 pm

Mike,
I get your point, but respectfully disagree.

These battles are partisan, but that's democracy. What's unusual is that this president won't take "no" as an answer. George Bush promised social security reform and it was never touched.

And, until the late 70's the government kept going in these situations.
In the end, the country suffers as it costs more money.
Additionally, our allies (military, humanitarian, and scientific) become less certain of the trustworthiness of the USA.

With budget ceilings, we lose credit ratings which inflict us perpetually with higher interest rates.

In short, if there wasn't this opportunity to await brinkmanship negotiations I believe the entire system would be healthier.

Just my 2 pesos and Canadian cents.
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much ado
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Re: 2018-2019 Government Shutdown

#846

Post by much ado » Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:16 pm

Jim wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:09 pm
Mikedunford wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:45 pm
Bad, bad, bad idea.

If that passes, a Democrat wins in 2020, and the Democrats don't take back the Senate, we'll be stuck at current spending until 2022, or 2024, or - you get the point.
Didn't we have something like this before the pubs canned it during the Clinton years?
Actually, i don't think that a government shutdown should be available as a negotiating tactic to either side. It is too disruptive.
Edit: :yeah: I'm with Danraft on this.

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Mikedunford
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Re: 2018-2019 Government Shutdown

#847

Post by Mikedunford » Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:17 pm

Partisan battles are fine, when the system is functional. It's not. The whole system is broken.

This will - not could, not might, absolutely will - result in a complete breakdown of the entire budgetary system, probably for multiple years. Look at the recent record - when was the last time a budget was passed, and when was the last time appropriations got done without either a shutdown or ceiling threat hanging over Congress?

And setting spending and borrowing on autopilot is about as good a way to spectacularly wreck all kinds of shit that I can think of. It might not cause as much direct and immediate harm as splatting into the debt ceiling, but I doubt the long-term outcome will look very different.
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bob
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Re: 2018-2019 Government Shutdown

#848

Post by bob » Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:17 pm

Jim wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:09 pm
Mikedunford wrote:
Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:45 pm
If that passes, a Democrat wins in 2020, and the Democrats don't take back the Senate, we'll be stuck at current spending until 2022, or 2024, or - you get the point.
Didn't we have something like this before the pubs canned it during the Clinton years?
Somewhat: The "Gephardt Rule" automatically raised the debt ceiling when a budget was passed. Now is a different situation, as no budget has been passed (various CRs are keeping parts of the government open).
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Danraft
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Re: 2018-2019 Government Shutdown

#849

Post by Danraft » Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:26 pm

I believe the last budget was 2006.
538 has a great chart of Budget Procrastinations ( on iPad so I can't share image link and don't want to eat Foggy's server space by uploading it)
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/20 ... one-chart/
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Re: 2018-2019 Government Shutdown

#850

Post by ZekeB » Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:36 pm

Grassley is a co-sponsor? That useless old fart? He's only a few steps behind Steve King in uselessness. I thought he was hooked hard in the "give Trump everything he wants" camp. It's going to have to be a bipartisan bill or Trump's veto will never be overridden. The Pubs need to grow a pair and come up with a real bipartisan bill and be willing to override Der Führer's veto. I do think there should be a constitutional amendment that requires a new budget be in place before the start of the fiscal year. If no agreement is reached the current budget applies, plus an inflation factor. My whole problem with this shutdown is that if you give him this, what will be want and be willing to shut down the government for next?
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