Presidential Approval Polls 2017

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Suranis
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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by Suranis » Fri Sep 15, 2017 4:28 pm

Ya, but look at it from the underpants perspective. :(
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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by Slartibartfast » Fri Sep 15, 2017 4:31 pm

Suranis wrote:Ya, but look at it from the underpants perspective. :(
Omelettes. Eggs.
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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by Slartibartfast » Fri Sep 15, 2017 4:40 pm

Net approval now -15.8%. It's been over two months since it's been that high. In other words, Trump has reversed about two months of downward drift in the last couple of weeks, and the change we're talking about (~5%) is probably significant, if small.
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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by Suranis » Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:05 pm

No real surprise. He had to rebound at some point. The only question is if he has basically hit his bottom or is this a rise before a further fall.
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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by TollandRCR » Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:09 pm

Public opinion polls influence opinion as well as reflect it. Some countries prohibit election polling a week or so before an election. I favor that.
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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by Slartibartfast » Fri Sep 15, 2017 6:48 pm

Suranis wrote:No real surprise. He had to rebound at some point. The only question is if he has basically hit his bottom or is this a rise before a further fall.
It's easy to say he's going to rebound at some point after it happened. Who was saying that three weeks ago? (I was wondering if he was going to get a bounce from the hurricane(s), but I wasn't willing to make a prediction about it.) My point, just to be clear, is this: we shouldn't use polls to try to predict the future, just to help us understand where we are and how we got here.

Please don't believe that I'm saying that we can't trust any kind of predictive modeling -- I'm starting a company called AdderStone Predictive Analytics and that's exactly what we do -- I'm just pointing out some of the warning signs that indicate that particular practices are unscientific.

Besides, effective predictive models can be literally worth billions of dollars (imagine a stock trading program or a model that will help develop better cancer drugs*), so when people are giving away information gleaned from predictive analytics it is pretty much guaranteed to be worth what you paid for it at best.


* I don't have to imagine this, I've just got to convince a pharmaceutical company that it can work. But that's a whole other thing.
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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by gupwalla » Fri Sep 15, 2017 7:05 pm

Slartibartfast wrote:Net approval now -15.8%. It's been over two months since it's been that high. In other words, Trump has reversed about two months of downward drift in the last couple of weeks, and the change we're talking about (~5%) is probably significant, if small.
Mark me as one of the ones who is marginally more impressed with him this week compared to previous weeks. He's doing the presidential thing with the hurricane areas (if a little less polished than predecessors), his signing comments on the C-ville "sense of Congress" hit the right notes for me, and if you look below the surface fog he's being suitably tough on Russia right now. He's saying the right things on DACA, despite his insistence on tying it to the :sick: :silenced: border defense wall.

I'm pleased that he's open to talking with Schumer and Pelosi, and honestly, if he can build a reputation as the president who broke gridlock and found a way back to bipartisan compromise, he'll have done some real good in this country.

He's still personally a lech, and there is always the chance I am more :rolleye: than I think I am so maybe the international picture is not as clear as I believe it to be.

Still, he's shown more potential this week and I've moved from "vehemently despise" to "open to re-evaluate based on ongoing circumstances."

I'd still rather have President Clinton.
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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by Slartibartfast » Fri Sep 15, 2017 7:45 pm

As a scientist I am necessarily stuck in "open to re-evaluate based on ongoing circumstances" on everything and I'm long since into "no trust without verification" on Trump, but you blunt your argument about the awful things he does (and the things he does awfully) when you refuse to acknowledge when he gets it more-or-less right.

Too. also. I think that we need to distinguish between Trump's political issues -- which need political solutions -- and his Constitutional issues, which need Constitutional solutions, i.e. acting according to the law in a transparent and unpartisan process. Trump's good political behavior should be acknowledged (and encouraged), but can never be put in the way of a fair and full investigation by Mueller. There's no way to restore faith in government until we can identify what parts of the government are sound and what parts are corrupt (or at least questionable).
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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by gupwalla » Fri Sep 15, 2017 8:29 pm

Slartibartfast wrote:As a scientist I am necessarily stuck in "open to re-evaluate based on ongoing circumstances" on everything and I'm long since into "no trust without verification" on Trump, but you blunt your argument about the awful things he does (and the things he does awfully) when you refuse to acknowledge when he gets it more-or-less right.

Too. also. I think that we need to distinguish between Trump's political issues -- which need political solutions -- and his Constitutional issues, which need Constitutional solutions, i.e. acting according to the law in a transparent and unpartisan process. Trump's good political behavior should be acknowledged (and encouraged), but can never be put in the way of a fair and full investigation by Mueller. There's no way to restore faith in government until we can identify what parts of the government are sound and what parts are corrupt (or at least questionable).
We don't actually disagree (or at least I should say - I am in agreement with all you say here). But, it's past happy hour here in Dallas and I've had a rough week so I might not be at my most articulate.
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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by Addie » Mon Sep 18, 2017 10:52 am

NPR
NPR/Ipsos Poll: Half Of Americans Don't Trust Trump On North Korea

A narrow majority of Americans don't trust President Trump to handle the conflict with North Korea, according to a new NPR/Ipsos poll.

The findings come as the president and his diplomatic team prepare for the United Nations General Assembly in New York this week, where North Korea's renegade nuclear program will be a major focus.

The survey found 51 percent of Americans distrust the president's ability to contain the North Korean government in Pyongyang, including 40 percent who have strong concerns. ...

As with many issues, mistrust of the president is heavily concentrated among Democratic and independent voters. More than 8 in 10 Republicans say they trust the president to handle the situation.
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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by phaseolus » Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:51 pm

As chaotic and reactive as his actions and statements are, I'd kinda expect lots of swings superimposed onto any underlying trend, for the remainder of his time in office, unless he chases approval ratings. But I doubt he's capable of the patient observation of causes and effects he'd need to successfully do that, though.

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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by Addie » Thu Sep 21, 2017 11:49 am

NBC News
NBC/WSJ Poll: Public Likes Trump’s Bipartisan Move — But Little Else

WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump’s approval rating has inched up, and more than 70 percent of Americans support his recent deal with Democratic leaders to provide hurricane relief and keep the government open for 90 days, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

But the same poll finds that only a third of the public believes Trump has accomplished much as president, and fewer than 30 percent back his handling of health care, race relations and the violent episode in Charlottesville, Va.


...

Trump’s overall job-approval rating in the poll stands at 43 percent, which is up three points since August, although that’s within the survey’s margin of error of plus-minus 3.3 percentage points. Fifty-two percent disapprove of the president’s job.
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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by Sterngard Friegen » Thu Sep 21, 2017 1:09 pm

Suspicions confirmed.

If Trump loves his ratings, he should be making deals every day with Chuck and Nancy.

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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by Tiredretiredlawyer » Thu Sep 21, 2017 1:38 pm

Sterngard Friegen wrote:
Thu Sep 21, 2017 1:09 pm
Suspicions confirmed.

If Trump loves his ratings, he should be making deals every day with Chuck and Nancy.
:like: AND let Nancy dictate his tweets. :-D
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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by Addie » Thu Sep 21, 2017 2:46 pm

The Hill
Poll: Support drops for border wall, deporting Dreamers

Support for President Trump's signature plan to build a wall along the Mexican border has dropped over the past two years, as has support for his policy of increased deportations of undocumented immigrants.

A Monmouth University poll released Thursday found 35 percent of Americans support Trump's plan to build a wall, down from 48 percent in September 2015.

Support for deportations has dropped as well, especially among Republicans. Support for deporting immigrants who have been here at least two years dropped from 43 to 30 percent among Republicans over two years.

A majority of all respondents, 76 percent, told Monmouth that undocumented immigrants who have worked in the U.S. for at least two years should have a path to citizenship.
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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by Slartibartfast » Thu Sep 21, 2017 5:11 pm

Addie wrote:
Thu Sep 21, 2017 11:49 am
NBC/WSJ Poll: Public Likes Trump’s Bipartisan Move — But Little Else

:snippity:

Trump’s overall job-approval rating in the poll stands at 43 percent, which is up three points since August, although that’s within the survey’s margin of error of plus-minus 3.3 percentage points. Fifty-two percent disapprove of the president’s job.
*sigh*

Per 538, Trump's net approval (14%) is up over 6% since its low of less than -20%. That is not "margin of error", it is a real move. Never trust data that says what you want to hear (or at least "trust but verify") and always try to prove data you like wrong.

I find it disappointing how little has changed about how polling data is analyzed, used, and presented since the 2016 election.
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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by bob » Thu Sep 21, 2017 5:28 pm

Slartibartfast wrote:
Thu Sep 21, 2017 5:11 pm
Per 538, Trump's net approval (14%) is up over 6% since its low of less than -20%. That is not "margin of error", it is a real move.
True: The president's approval numbers are back to where they were around mid-May.
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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by Addie » Fri Sep 22, 2017 11:46 am

Newsweek
Trump is the Least Popular President Ever, even as His Approval Rating Rises ...

The weighted average from data-aggregating website FiveThirtyEight pegged Trump's approval rating at 39.7 percent Friday morning. His disapproval stood at 53.7 percent. At first blush, those seem like great results for the president, who has struggled in the polls for his entire tenure. For most of August, for instance, the FiveThirtyEight tracker—which combines public polls and adjusts for a survey's quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean—had Trump around 36 or 37 percent. Now at nearly 40 percent, the president certainly has made a nice little jump.

But, put into historical context, that's a terrible figure. Dating back all the way to former President Harry Truman in the 1940s, no president has been as unpopular on Day 246 of their presidency (where Trump is now). The only former leader of the free world who comes close is President Gerald Ford.

For a while Trump had risen above Ford, who served after President Richard Nixon resigned in disgrace after the Watergate scandal. Ford's approval rating plummeted after he pardoned Nixon in 1974, a move that was unpopular at the time but is now considered by many to have been the correct decision and an act of political bravery. But even he stood at 41 percent approval on Day 246 of his first term, according to FiveThirtyEight. And former President Barack Obama, for instance, had an approval rating of 52.7 percent on Day 246.

Still, folks seemed to have moved on from the president's disastrous run in August, when his popularity sunk after his seeming defense of Nazi protesters in Charlottesville, Virginia (the infamous "there were very fine people on both sides". The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, for instance, found 43 percent of respondents approved of the job he was doing, with many expressing they liked the president's willingness to work with Democratic leaders on working out a new deal on the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program.

Trump is on the rise. Trump also remains in the basement.
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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by Addie » Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:50 pm

Newsweek
Trump is Cowardly, Uninspiring and Inconsistent, Americans Say: Poll

President Donald Trump lacks courage and is generally unprepared as a leader, say a majority of Americans, but the leader of the free world does get some credit for being competitive, according to a new Gallup poll.

Overall, just 22 percent of Americans describe Trump as prepared; 25 percent said he's consistent; 28 percent said he's inspiring; and only 32 percent feel he's courageous. But 84 percent said he's competitive; 73 percent feel he's intense; and 53 percent describe Trump as enthusiastic.

Comparatively, President Barack Obama was described by 66 percent of Americans as a "strong and decisive" leader, and by 72 percent as a man "willing to make hard decisions" in a Gallup poll released at the same point in his first term, back in 2009.

The new Gallup poll follows up on a survey conducted just before the presidential election and measures candidates on 12 leadership qualities. Gallup wanted to asses how people's views on Trump have or have not shifted over time.

In general, there wasn't much of a change, suggesting people knew exactly what they were getting with candidate Trump in November 2016.
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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by Addie » Sun Sep 24, 2017 9:14 am

WaPo

Poll: Far more trust generals than Trump on N. Korea, while two-thirds oppose preemptive strike

Two-thirds of Americans oppose launching a preemptive military strike against North Korea, with a majority trusting the U.S. military to handle the escalating nuclear crisis responsibly but not President Trump, a new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds.

Roughly three-quarters of the public supports tougher economic sanctions on North Korea in an attempt to persuade it to give up its nuclear weapons, while just about one-third think the United States should offer the isolated country foreign aid or other incentives.

The Post-ABC poll finds 37 percent of adults trust Trump either “a great deal” or “a good amount” to responsibly handle the situation with North Korea, while 42 percent trust the commander in chief “not at all.” By comparison, 72 percent trust U.S. military leaders, including 43 percent saying they trust them “a great deal.”

A scant 8 percent of Americans surveyed think North Korean leader Kim Jong Un can act responsibly.

Overall, Trump’s image continues to be negative, with 39 percent of Americans approving and 57 percent disapproving of the president’s job performance. But the poll finds that clear majorities approve of Trump’s response to recent hurricanes and support the agreement he struck with Democrats providing emergency disaster-relief funding and raising the nation’s debt limit.
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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by pipistrelle » Sun Sep 24, 2017 9:30 am

A scant 8 percent of Americans surveyed think North Korean leader Kim Jong Un can act responsibly.
That there are 8 percent is scary.

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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by Lani » Sun Sep 24, 2017 9:34 am

Not as scary as the 37% that trust Trump to "responsibly handle" North Korea.
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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by Addie » Sun Sep 24, 2017 9:35 am

CNN
CNN Poll: Opinion of the Republican Party falls to all-time low ...

Fewer than three in 10 Americans -- 29% -- hold a favorable view of the Republican Party according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS. That is down 13 percentage points from March and is the lowest mark for the GOP since CNN began asking the question in 1992.

The previous low point for the GOP was 30% -- hit twice -- in October 2013 following the federal government shutdown over President Barack Obama's health care law, and December 1998, in the wake of the House of Representatives approving two articles of impeachment against then President Bill Clinton.

Overall, 20% of Americans approve of the way Republican leaders in Congress are handling their jobs, while 72% disapprove. That includes just 39% of Republicans who approve of the job GOP leaders are doing.

Republicans are signaling they prefer President Donald Trump's vision for the party, with 79% saying he is taking it in the right direction. A majority of GOP voters -- 53% -- believe Republican leaders in Congress are taking the party in the wrong direction. ...

Democrats also lead in the generic congressional ballot among all Americans by nine percentage points, 50% to 41%, though the midterm electorate traditionally leans more Republican.

Feelings about the Democratic Party are slightly rosier, with 41% holding a favorable view of the party compared to 51% of Americans who say they hold a negative view.
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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by Foggy » Sun Sep 24, 2017 10:19 am

Hoo boy. :roll:
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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by RVInit » Sun Sep 24, 2017 10:47 am

Lani wrote:
Sun Sep 24, 2017 9:34 am
Not as scary as the 37% that trust Trump to "responsibly handle" North Korea.
:yeah:
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