#FloridaFloridaFlorida Florida Voting Data for Geeks - Obama's Steve Schale

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Re: #FloridaFloridaFlorida Florida Voting Data for Geeks - Obama's Steve Schale

#51

Post by Orlylicious » Mon Nov 07, 2016 12:18 am

Trumpers think they have a shot in Dade, please give us what they're smoking! :rotflmao: Amateurs.
Marc Caputo Verified account @MarcACaputo
Maybe i'm reading this wrong, but this story implies Trump campaign thinks it can win Miami media market? Bonkers
Good lengthy story that puts together many of the things we've been discussing. It's hard to pick 4 graphs, they're all so good! #DoomForTrump :lol:

In Trump's Most Important County, a Surge of Hispanic Voters
Trump officials believe the Florida county of Miami-Dade can tip the must-win state their way. But an analysis of early votes shows eye-popping Hispanic numbers.
Joshua Green
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/artic ... s-iv7he39o
Trump FL 11-7.PNG
Trump FL 11-7 B.PNG
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Re: #FloridaFloridaFlorida Florida Voting Data for Geeks - Obama's Steve Schale

#52

Post by Sterngard Friegen » Mon Nov 07, 2016 12:23 am

Trump thinks Hispanics love him. Along with The Black.

So they're all voting for him. After all, he is the best person and the other candidate is the most corrupt person ever to run for office.

Boy, Trump projects all the time. On everything. Doesn't he?



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Re: #FloridaFloridaFlorida Florida Voting Data for Geeks - Obama's Steve Schale

#53

Post by TexasFilly » Mon Nov 07, 2016 2:12 am

Sterngard Friegen wrote:Trump thinks Hispanics love him. Along with The Black.

So they're all voting for him. After all, he is the best person and the other candidate is the most corrupt person ever to run for office.

Boy, Trump projects all the time. On everything. Doesn't he?
Yes, it's a symptom of a severe mental problem. But we already knew that.


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Re: #FloridaFloridaFlorida Florida Voting Data for Geeks - Obama's Steve Schale

#54

Post by kate520 » Mon Nov 07, 2016 2:20 am

On everything.

'Crooked Hillary is going to steal this election'.


DEFEND DEMOCRACY

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Re: #FloridaFloridaFlorida Florida Voting Data for Geeks - Obama's Steve Schale

#55

Post by Sam the Centipede » Mon Nov 07, 2016 4:39 am

It's great that people and groups that were previously apathetic about or uninterested in voting are now engaging in the democratic process. I hope that they will now believe that they are part of this process and that it's not just for the white or privileged folk, for "them", not for "us". And, having made a difference this time, they might remain engaged enough to vote in future elections. That would be a super outcome in every way.

The law of unintended consequences kicks in: Trump's vileness and his appalling campaign might prove to be the best promoter of democracy for decades!



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Re: #FloridaFloridaFlorida Florida Voting Data for Geeks - Obama's Steve Schale

#56

Post by Orlylicious » Mon Nov 07, 2016 10:16 am

Here we go! Thank you everybody for reading these reports and being so kind, it's meant the world to me. :bighug:

Hillsborough is our bellwether and we're at 42.1 Dem – 35.3 GOP – 22.6 NPA! As you've seen, the NPA is including a lot of Hispanic voters so we're feeling good about that.

Do you know anyone in beautiful PALM BEACH? We need you to call them and please get them out to VOTE!

We have to GOTV and we're feeling amazing about Florida, we're gonna win it! Here's the updates, from Steve and Marc Caputo!
1 more day. We can do this
Monday, November 7, 2016 at 1:30AM

To: The tired, poor, huddled masses yearning to be free of 2016
From: Steve Schale, Florida Sherpa
Re: It is almost drinkin' time

I usually do a timeline here, but since I cant even imagine life in a post-2016 election cycle world, I am simply going to say, Thank God America, we have damn near made it. Like the weed that I can't get to stop growing up the side of my back yard fence, admit it, you thought this would never end. But it is going to. Yes. Tomorrow, we will have a winner. Just hang in there one more day.

On Sunday, I took my Turkish crew to the St. Mark AME Church for a Souls to the Polls service with Val Demings and Kamia Brown, after which we visited an early voting site nearby. The lines at noon were already quite long, so it came as no surprise that Orange County (Orlando) set a turnout record. And so did Osceola, and Hillsborough, Broward, Palm Beach, Duval, Leon, Pinellas, and yes, Miami Dade.

In fact, Miami Dade had more people vote today than 33 counties have had vote in this entire election. They more than 760K people who voted in early voting is equal to almost 88% of the entire vote cast in the 2012 election. If Election Day turnout is just half of what it was in 2012, more than 1 million people will vote in Dade. I had it estimated at 900K, as did most people I spoke with.

In total, almost 260k people voted yesterday in the 15 counties that cast ballots. To put that in context, most days last week of in-person early voting barely eclipsed the total from 15 counties. Frankly, the turnout was stunning.

There will be some VBM ballots which will show up tomorrow at elections offices, but the below numbers are pretty much what we will see heading into E-Day.

So let me try to make some sense out of this.

Total Ballots cast: 6,419,154

Total Vote By Mail: 2,549,633 (41.5%)

Total Early Vote: 3,869,521 (58.5%)


Democrats: 2,558.072 (39.85%)

Republicans: 2,470,823 (38.49%)

NPA: 1,390,259 (21.66%)

Total Margin: DEM +1.36%


How big is the final weekend for Dems?

Friday: Dems +0.13 (+7K)

Saturday: Dems +0.59 (+32K)

Sunday: Dems +1.36 (+87K)

To repeat from yesterday, my go-to model for this cycle has been 40D-39R-21NPA. NPA’s are going to outpace it, but I still think +1 DEM is pretty safe.

And when you add Sunday, here is how the NPA tracked over the last week

After Sunday: 21.66%

After Sat: 21.35%

After Fri: 20.55%

After Thurs: 20.2%

After Wed: 19.8%

After Sunday: 19.3%

Right now, I think about 67% percent of the likely electorate has voted. Late last week, I predicted 70%, but to be fair, I had it at 9.2m turnout late last week. At that turnout, EV ended up at 69.7%, so that prediction was almost OK. 9.5 million is where I do think it lands – that is roughly 08 level turnout (exact 08 would be 9.55m). Given the sheer numbers of low propensity voters, it could go beyond that, but honestly, I would be surprised (albeit pleasantly).

So let’s dive in to the usual benchmarks

Hillsborough:

Hillsborough had a record day, with Dems leading the day by a 3500 voter plurality. NPA voters made up 30% of the voters yesterday, which is pretty remarkable, out placing NPA registration at 28.

All in all, the Dems will go into Eday with a 7 point voter registration advantage, which is slightly more Republican than the county’s voter registration statistics. D’s maintain an 8 point voter registration advantage in the county. Keep in mind, the reason I use Hillsborough is it is the recent benchmark, as the only county won by Bush twice and Obama twice.

And Hillsborough is doing a nice job of playing its role as the state benchmark. It should be about 6.5% of all statewide votes, and that is pretty much where it is in early voting (6.51%)

Yesterday: 41.7 Dem – 28.3 GOP – 30.0 NPA.

Total: 42.1 Dem – 35.3 GOP – 22.6 NPA

Dem +28,092

I-4

Almost as many people voted as Saturday, even though Volusia had no early voting, and the Dems won the day by over 13,00. But again, the big news is NPA, which made up 30% of all the voters along the highway, out-pacing Republicans.

Again it was metro-Orlando driving the NPA surge, with Seminole, Osceola, and Orange all over 30% NPA, with Osceola topping out at 33%. In fact, yesterday’s record day in both Osceola and Orange (I don’t have historic Seminole data), saw Dem + NPA = over 75% of the vote. The Obama effect again.

To date: 42.1 D - 35.4 R – 23.4 NPA

Yesterday: 41.6 D -28.4 R – 30.0 NPA

In total 1.74 million votes were cast in the 7 counties along this interstate. To put this in perspective, I-4 county early voting in 2016 was bigger than Iowa in 2012.

These counties are now exceeding my projection of the state’s share by 0.8%, coming in at 27.16% of the state through yesterday, compared to my projection of 26.38%. But as I mentioned yesterday, this is not a disparity created equally along the interstate. In terms of ranking, Orange and Osceola are the fourth and fifth most “over-performing” counties in the state. On the flip side, the 5th most under-performing: Polk, which typically is a lean-GOP county, and frankly, is the kind of place I expected to see a “secret-Trump vote” surge. It might happen Tuesday, but I’m not convinced.

Also, my phone will blow up if I don’t mention that Pinellas flipped to the Dem column yesterday. It is still exceptionally tight and my gut says Trump does better than Romney.

Just to recap the counties on I-4 –

Volusia (Daytona) – should lean a little red this year (NO EV ON SUN)

All votes: 39.7 R, 37.2 D, 23.1 NPA

R + 4,235

Seminole – suburban Orlando, more white/republican. As a note, the SOE here, Mike Ertel here is a great guy, and today is hosting my Turkish delegation to walk through how votes are tabulated. Given how busy he is, I truly am grateful.

All votes: 41.3 R, 35.1D, 23.8 NPA

R +10,186

Orange (Orlando)

All votes: 46 D, 29.5 R, 24.5 NPA

D +65,553

Osceola – very Hispanic. President Obama was there

All votes: 47.3 D, 26.3 R, 26.4 NPA

D + 21,986

Imperial Polk – between Tampa/Orlando – lean R

All votes: 39.7 R, 39 D, 21.3 NPA

R +1,023

Hillsborough – twice for Bush, twice for Obama

Total: 42.1 Dem – 35.3 GOP – 22.6 NPA

Dem +28,092

Pinellas – lean D county on Gulf, west of Tampa

All votes: 38.6 R, 38.4 D, 23.0 NPA

D +358

Last look at I-4, by looking at the media markets, Republicans continue to hold a slight edge. To win Florida, Trump needs to grow slightly from Romney in both Tampa, and Orlando.

I noticed something over the last few days that is interesting: early in the voting period, the Tampa market was way out-performing the state, and now it is under-performing. Why is that? Hillsborough is roughly where it should be, but Pasco, Polk and Pinellas are well behind. Combined, those three counties are about a point below where they should perform as a share of the state. Will that be made up Tuesday? I don’t know, but I do think for Trump to do well, he needs pretty solid margins and volume from particularly Pasco and Polk.

Honestly in these two markets, Clinton appears to be right on path to meet her goals.

South Florida

It was like Miami had LeBron back yesterday, joined by Jordan in his prime. :thumbs:

Over 100,000 people voted in just Broward and Dade yesterday. In other words, 40% of yesterday came from the two biggest Democratic counties in Florida. Anyone care to write the “lack of enthusiasm” story today.

The numbers speak for themselves. 87.7% of the entire 2012 election turnout has already voted in Dade. That just doesn’t happen. And Broward is at a respectable 81%.

Dade is at 11.9% of all votes cast so far (should be 10.3%), and Broward is at 9.55%, where I had it pegged at 8.75%. The media market is a full two points bigger than it should be. If the Miami market finishes at 21.8% of all votes, this thing is cooked, and we will know it before 8:00 (assuming Miami decides to count all these ballots)

The red flag for Dems: Palm Beach. It is at 62% of its 2012 total, and it is also the county most “under-performing.” It should be about 7% of the state vote, but today it is about 5.9%. Of all the data points right now, this is the only one that concerns me. While Miami is more than making up for it, for HRC, win path is much easier with a more robust Palm Beach.

Palm Beach

All votes: 47.4 D, 28.5 R, 24.1 NPA

D +71,994

Broward

All votes: 55.5 D, 21.7 R, 22.8 NPA

D +206,981

Miami-Dade

All votes, 44.1 D, 29.3 R, 26.6 NPA

D +112,220

Duuuuuuval

The Obama effect:

D’s were down 3,000 when he got there.

They finish early voting up 4,248

#ThanksObama

Will Dems win Duval? Hell no. Will Trump win it by the Bush 04 margins he needs to make up from the Dade County wave? Absolutely not.

Additional Thoughts.

My basic view on this cycle, going back over a year, is that diversity would create the mechanism for Democrats to overcome other issues in the campaign, whether they be candidate or structurally-based.

Many folks doubted that 2016 would be more diverse. I had these same fights in 2012, as the Romney campaign tried to make the case that 2008 wasn't replicable, not understanding that nothing had to be replicated, because the pie of Florida voters had changed. Almost any 2012 reporter can attest I was a broken record on this -- demographics are changing and people aren't reading the state right.

Last week was deja vu, as early voting looked slow for the Dems, though signs of this Hispanic surge started to emerge, I had the same conversations with many of the same people.

One of the challenges Democrats have in Florida dealing with these process-driven stories about turnout is one of optics. Even when VBM is competitive between the parties, as it was this year, it is dominated by older white voters. This leads to the inevitable "X" group won't vote story, typcially backed up by a few quotes from people who have no involvement in the actual campaign. We saw this it this year again.

But two things emerged last week. One, this low propensity Hispanic thing became a thing. While Trump folks argued that Trump would turn out low propensity voters, we'd see slight edges for Democrats in this category. What became clear over days last week, this was a Hispanic deal, and as week 2 of early voting took hold, so did this surge. As of Saturday, Democrats had an egde of more than 175K low propensity voters.

Secondly, we began to see the edging upward of NPA voters. I had projected NPA at 21% of the electorate, but it will probably land closer to 23. And it is really diverse, running an average of four points more diverse than the electorate as a whole.

So you end up with this scenario -- a fairly close partisan break, but below that, you saw surging Hispanic, surging NPA, and growing proof that the electorate would be more diverse than it was in 2012. Then we also learn that a large chunk of the GOP advantage was built with voters who were registered Dems in 2012 (though almost certainly not Dem Voters), as well as the GOP having cannibalized more of its own Election Day vote, and I began to realize this was looking better each day.

On that diversity issue, just since last week, the percentage of the electorate that's white has gone from 71 then over the last few days from 68.6 to 68.0, to 67.4, to 68.8. Since Thursday, there has been no day when the electorate has been more than 61% white. This is the Clinton recipe for winning.

So when I get asked -- all the freaking time -- about the fact the R versus D number is lower for the Dems than 2012, I answer, sure. And last week, I did worry about it, but this week, what has become clear is that structurally, we live in a state with more NPA, and more old conservative Dems who have switched parties, which drive down the total. But, we also live in a state that is getting more diverse, more quickly, and based on the 2012 experience, that is far more important in my eyes.

And the R versus D thing still isn't really out of whack. My most frequent model has the state going 40D, 39R, 21NPA, which I figured would land at 66 white. We are going to land more like 39D, 38R, 23NPA, and with that NPA driven by Hispanics (20% of NPA voters), this really looks like a Clinton coalition. In fact, most people, Republican and Democratic, I talked to in Florida were projecting D +1, so despte the talking points from the DNC, we are right on track.

I am going to write a wrap tomorrow for E-Day, but two questions I get a lot.

What am I worried about for HRC?

Really, almost nothing. I've mentioned the Palm Beach thing a few times, but right now, the diversity mix is rounding nicely into shape, and our best counties are way out-performing the state. Right now, she needs the organization on the ground to get this done on Tuesday

Could there be a Trump surge on Tuesday? It is possible, because the counties most under-performing right now are Trump counties. His problem, most of them are very small, part of what Jonathan Martin called the Gingrich Counties (where Newt beat Romney)-- those rural places in-between all the big counties.

All in all, the I-10 markets are way below where they should be, maybe as much as 3% below where its share should be. If that comes in tomorrow, it will tighten the race considerably.

Tomorrow's memo will also lay out some things you watch for. If she wins by 3, we will know pretty well, probably before the Panhandle returns come back after 8. If it is close, prepare for a long night.

One last thing -- and this is just for the FL HRC organizers out there.

You all got this. This thing is right there. You've spent 6 months training for this moment. This is what you built for. Do your job today and tomorrow, stay focused on your goals, and you can say you made history.

Marc Caputo:
Good Monday morning. Yup. One. Day. Left. In-person early voting is over. And wow. Only 16 counties had Sunday-before-Election Day early voting (mostly in urban counties) and Democrat-heavy Miami-Dade and Broward had record days of in-person voting, combining for almost 100,000 votes (53k in Miami-Dade and 44k in Broward). That’s good news for Hillary Clinton/bad news for Donald Trump.

HOW IT STANDS -- As of 6:51 am, Floridians cast a record 6.4 million pre-Election Day ballots, 2.56 million (39.9 percent) by Democrats and 2.47 million (38.5 percent) by Republicans. That’s a Democrat lead of 87,249 and 1.4 percentage points the day before Election Day. Before the early vote totals were posted this morning, Democrats’ lead was 35,205 raw votes and 0.6 percentage points. That’s how much in-person early voting (vs. mail-in absentee ballot voting) helps Democrats. This doesn’t mean Clinton is winning and Trump is losing. But it looks better for her than him. We won’t know the votes until Election Day when votes are tallied. Almost 22 percent of the ballots have been cast by independents. Good luck figuring out whom they’re voting for; the polls are all over the place with them. Beyond party affiliation, the non-white share of the vote has been increasing while the white share has decreased over the past few days. Again, that favors Clinton.

JUST LIKE 2012 AFTER ALL? – Trump backers have been able to comfort themselves with numbers showing that the Democratic lead over Republicans in pre-Election Day ballots cast isn’t as big as it was in 2012. But in looking deep into the data of who has voted and how the voter rolls have shifted, this election might be more like 2012 regarding early votes cast by party affiliation. Assuming Democrats vote Clinton and Republicans vote Trump, Clinton MIGHT be slightly ahead of where President Obama was in 2012, when he won the state by less than a point.

THE TIED-UP MATH – Yesterday morning, 33,000 more Florida Democrats had voted early than Republicans. In the same period in 2012, Democrats’ lead was close to 135,000 ballots. But embedded in that lead is a net of 55,000 more Republicans than Democrats who voted this election but were registered with the opposing party in 2012. (That is: almost 91,000 Republicans who have already voted this election were Democrats back then, and fewer than 36,000 Democrats who have voted today were registered Republicans then.) In short, these former Democrats were likely Dixiecrats who didn’t vote like Democrats but were counted as Democrats four years ago. So subtract that 55,000 from the Democrats’ 2012 pre-Election Day margin. Then take off another 51,000. That’s the additional number of Republicans than Democrats who voted on Election Day in 2012 but decided to vote early this year. Put another way, Republicans have narrowed the early vote margin this year by getting more Election Day voters to vote early. Had these Republicans voted early the same way in 2012, the Democrats’ pre-Election Day lead would have been smaller by 51,000. Add that to the 55,000 Dixiecrats and the Democratic early vote advantage might have been more like 29,000 in 2012 when compared to yesterday’s numbers showing a Democrat margin of 33,000. (Disclaimer: this is only an exercise based on voter-roll data and a set of assumptions that partisans will call gospel or heresy depending on their political leanings)

-- “Trump camp: We’re in better shape in Florida than Romney was in ‘12,” by The Tampa Bay Times’ Adam C. Smith: http://bit.ly/2fu5TDp
LET''S GO WIN THIS TEAM!!!!!


Avatar Photo: Cindy Hyde-Smith, Racist Mississippi Senator took this photo during a 2014 visit to the Jefferson Davis Home and Presidential Library. "Mississippi history at its best!" Hyde-Smith exclaimed.

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Re: #FloridaFloridaFlorida Florida Voting Data for Geeks - Obama's Steve Schale

#57

Post by Orlylicious » Mon Nov 07, 2016 12:04 pm

A Cliff's notes version :P
FL Lily.PNG
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Avatar Photo: Cindy Hyde-Smith, Racist Mississippi Senator took this photo during a 2014 visit to the Jefferson Davis Home and Presidential Library. "Mississippi history at its best!" Hyde-Smith exclaimed.

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Re: #FloridaFloridaFlorida Florida Voting Data for Geeks - Obama's Steve Schale

#58

Post by Orlylicious » Mon Nov 07, 2016 1:35 pm

BOOM!
FL EV 11-7.PNG
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Re: #FloridaFloridaFlorida Florida Voting Data for Geeks - Obama's Steve Schale

#59

Post by p0rtia » Mon Nov 07, 2016 1:41 pm

Orlylicious wrote:BOOM!

FL EV 11-7.PNG
Super!

So seeing this comparison makes me realize I'm not hearing any reports of Floridians discovering that they've been thrown off the voting rolls this year.

That's gotta be good news.

:pray: :pray: :pray:


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Re: #FloridaFloridaFlorida Florida Voting Data for Geeks - Obama's Steve Schale

#60

Post by Volkonski » Mon Nov 07, 2016 2:13 pm

p0rtia wrote:
Orlylicious wrote:BOOM!

FL EV 11-7.PNG
Super!

So seeing this comparison makes me realize I'm not hearing any reports of Floridians discovering that they've been thrown off the voting rolls this year.

That's gotta be good news.

:pray: :pray: :pray:
We must hope that this increase in voters is not due to all those Florida men we read about desperately coming out for Trump. (Yes, I know that is unlikely but I am scared of Trump and fear makes people entertain crazy ideas. :? )


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Re: #FloridaFloridaFlorida Florida Voting Data for Geeks - Obama's Steve Schale

#61

Post by Dan1100 » Mon Nov 07, 2016 2:45 pm

TexasFilly wrote:
Sterngard Friegen wrote:Trump thinks Hispanics love him. Along with The Black.

So they're all voting for him. After all, he is the best person and the other candidate is the most corrupt person ever to run for office.

Boy, Trump projects all the time. On everything. Doesn't he?
Yes, it's a symptom of a severe mental problem. But we already knew that.
My theory is dementia brought on by long term Cialis abuse.


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Re: #FloridaFloridaFlorida Florida Voting Data for Geeks - Obama's Steve Schale

#62

Post by RoadScholar » Mon Nov 07, 2016 3:57 pm

In this case unlikely, since with Trump neither of the two organs requires all that much blood by volume. 8-)


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Re: #FloridaFloridaFlorida Florida Voting Data for Geeks - Obama's Steve Schale

#63

Post by SueDB » Mon Nov 07, 2016 4:09 pm

Dan1100 wrote:
TexasFilly wrote:
Sterngard Friegen wrote:Trump thinks Hispanics love him. Along with The Black.

So they're all voting for him. After all, he is the best person and the other candidate is the most corrupt person ever to run for office.

Boy, Trump projects all the time. On everything. Doesn't he?
Yes, it's a symptom of a severe mental problem. But we already knew that.
My theory is dementia brought on by long term Cialis abuse.
It shut off all the blood coming FROM his head. Yes, the other head, the one that does his thinking for him.

Watta pervert.


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Re: #FloridaFloridaFlorida Florida Voting Data for Geeks - Obama's Steve Schale

#64

Post by Orlylicious » Mon Nov 07, 2016 6:02 pm

Finally got a couple hours of sleep, forgot what that was :P Let's win this thing!

Did you call your friends in Palm Beach to tell them to vote? Thanks!!

Bottom to top:
Steve Schale ‏@steveschale 29m29 minutes ago
Need to look at more data, so not ready to predict a spread (though I have number in mind), but the majority of data looks good for HRC 9/9

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale 30m30 minutes ago
There has been a secret vote this year, but so far it hasn't been a Trump vote in Florida, it has been Hispanics. 8/

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale 30m30 minutes ago
And keep in mind, 5.9% of voters are "other/mixed"
They are 57% low propensity voters, and 77% are Dem or NPA.
7/

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale 33m33 minutes ago
Couple more: 56.3% of Hispanics are "low propensity, but it is more among D's (60.3%) and NPA (67.2%). 6/

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale 36m36 minutes ago
This means among low propensity voters, Dems have about a 225K vote lead. That over the last week. I was predicting it to land about 160K

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale 36m36 minutes ago
And among low propensity (voters with no previous history or 1 of 3 history), they are 37.7% of all Dems to date, and 30% of GOP. 4/

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale 38m38 minutes ago
Let's look at FL voters with no previous history:
20% of all voters have no previous voting history
But its 30% of Hispanics
3/

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale 39m39 minutes ago
NPA ended up more diverse than overall EV electorate. It is 61.4w, 21.4 h, 7b, which is very good news for HRC 3/

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale 40m40 minutes ago
As FL data nerd brother @electionsmith reported this AM, EV 2016 was more diverse than EV '12 and '12 final
2016 EV: 65.7w, 15.3h, 13.1b
2/

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale 42m42 minutes ago
Here comes some FL data at end of early voting. Please pray for my mentions. 1/


Avatar Photo: Cindy Hyde-Smith, Racist Mississippi Senator took this photo during a 2014 visit to the Jefferson Davis Home and Presidential Library. "Mississippi history at its best!" Hyde-Smith exclaimed.

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Re: #FloridaFloridaFlorida Florida Voting Data for Geeks - Obama's Steve Schale

#65

Post by Orlylicious » Mon Nov 07, 2016 6:24 pm

Marc Caputo is a reporter with POLITICO, he was a R staffer even working for Jeb! We've been teasing him...
Fernand R. Amandi ‏@AmandiOnAir 1h1 hour ago Miami, FL
Ex-POTUS's who lament the physical burdens of the Presidency can sympathize what 14yrs of #FloridaPolitics have done to our pal @MarcACaputo
Caputo.PNG
Marc Caputo ‏@MarcACaputo 2h2 hours ago
If Hillary wins FL -- and therefore the White House -- she can thank two counties most of all: Miami-Dade & Broward http://politi.co/2eGvAkV
Hey, that's us! :P :P
Florida Democrats widen early vote lead thanks to South Florida Sunday blowout
By Marc Caputo 11/07/16 03:46 PM EST

In a final surge, Florida Democrats stormed early voting polling stations in the Sunday before Election Day and widened their lead over Republicans to 88,000 ballots cast thanks to the strong support of African-Americans and Latinos in the nation’s biggest battleground state. The Democrats nearly tripled their Saturday lead thanks to historic voting numbers in just two counties: Miami-Dade and Broward. About 100,000 voters showed up to those two counties Sunday, casting almost 39 percent of the ballots in the 16 counties that held a final day of in-person early voting before Election Day.

If Hillary Clinton wins Florida — and therefore the presidential race — it will be on the strength of these two urban counties, which form the Miami TV media market along with much-smaller Monroe County in the Florida Keys. In this Hispanic- and black-heavy media market, Democrats have rolled up a nearly 318,000-vote margin over Republicans in total in-person early votes and mail-in absentee ballots. Florida has 10 media markets total, but none gave one party the advantage that Miami gave to the Democrats.
***
Democrats are ahead of the GOP in the markets of West Palm Beach (48,000 more ballots than Republicans); Tallahassee (30,000); and Gainesville (17,000). Though ballots won’t be opened and tallied until Election Day, party registration strongly correlates with support for the top-of-the-ticket candidates. So the early and absentee ballot returns are used as a rough gauge of the strength of the Clinton and Donald Trump campaigns.

The preference of independents, who have cast about 22 percent of the 6.4 million pre-Election Day ballots, is far-harder to estimate, however. A Monday Quinnipiac University poll of likely Florida voters, for instance, showed Clinton with a marginal 45-44 percent lead over Trump among independents — a statistical tie. Overall, Clinton is essentially tied with Trump in Florida 46-45 percent. The poll also showed Clinton edging Trump 47-43 percent among those who said they had early voted.
***
On Sunday, in-person early voting was opened in just major urban counties, which benefitted Democrats. About 258,000 people voted in person Sunday, 24 percent of whom were African-American, 26 percent Hispanic and 41 percent white. Compared to 2012, Hispanics have far exceeded their share of the early vote. But they’ve only cast about 15 percent of the ballots while they comprise 16 percent of the active voter rolls.
:thumbs:
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Re: #FloridaFloridaFlorida Florida Voting Data for Geeks - Obama's Steve Schale

#66

Post by TollandRCR » Mon Nov 07, 2016 7:05 pm

Sam the Centipede wrote:...
The law of unintended consequences kicks in: Trump's vileness and his appalling campaign might prove to be the best promoter of democracy for decades!
That is what Frank Rich suggested in September, 2015, New York magazine Donald Trump Is Saving Our Democracy. I pretty much ignored this article, as I had previously ignored most of his theater reviews for the NYT.
Trump may be injecting American democracy with steroids. No one, after all, is arguing that the debates among the GOP presidential contenders would be drawing remotely their Game of Thrones-scale audiences if the marquee stars were Jeb Bush and Scott Walker. When most of the field — minus Trump — appeared ahead of the first debate at a New Hampshire forum broadcast on C-SPAN, it caused little more stir than a soporific pageant of congressional backbenchers addressing the empty floor of the House. Without Trump, even a relatively tame Trump, would anyone have sat through even a third of the three-hour-plus trainwreck that CNN passed off as the second debate?

What has made him more entertaining than his peers is not his superficial similarities to any historical analogues or his shopworn celebrity. His passport to political stardom has been his uncanny resemblance to a provocative fictional comic archetype that has been an invigorating staple of American movies since Vietnam and Watergate ushered in wholesale disillusionment with Washington four decades ago. That character is a direct descendant of Twain’s 19th-century confidence men: the unhinged charlatan who decides to blow up the system by running for office — often the presidency — on a platform of outrageous pronouncements and boorish behavior. Trump has taken that role, the antithesis of the idealist politicians enshrined by Frank Capra and Aaron Sorkin, and run with it. He bestrides our current political landscape like the reincarnation not of Joe McCarthy (that would be Ted Cruz) but of Jay Billington Bulworth.

Trump’s shenanigans sometimes seem to be lifted directly from the eponymous 1998 movie, in which Warren Beatty plays a senator from California who abandons his scripted bromides to take up harsh truth-telling in rap: “Wells Fargo and Citibank, you’re really very dear / Loan billions to Mexico and never have to fear / ’Cause taxpayers take it in the rear.” Bulworth insults the moderators of a television debate, addresses his Hollywood donors as “big Jews,” and infuriates a black constituent by telling her he’ll ignore her unless she shells out to his campaign. Larry King, cast as himself, books him on his show because “people are sick and tired of all this baloney” and crave an unplugged politician who calls Washington “a disaster.”
I would just as soon not have had this injection of American democracy with steroids. I think Trump has damaged the country and that some of his followers will do further damage to the country. But the Democrats may finally have caught fire. They failed to support President Obama in the 2010 elections, leading to the Congress that we have today. Maybe Democrats now know that ideas matter, that the mark of party success is not raising campaign cash but actually winning elections with viable candidates.


“The truth is, we know so little about life, we don’t really know what the good news is and what the bad news is.” Kurt Vonnegut

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Re: #FloridaFloridaFlorida Florida Voting Data for Geeks - Obama's Steve Schale

#67

Post by Chilidog » Mon Nov 07, 2016 7:12 pm

Ignoring any potential crossover, and NPA votes,

Given the remaining potential votes, assuming 100% turnout how many more uncast votes does HRC need tomorrow to get 50%+1?

Is there a way to figure a point where it becomes mathematically impossible for Trump to win?



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Re: #FloridaFloridaFlorida Florida Voting Data for Geeks - Obama's Steve Schale

#68

Post by Orlylicious » Mon Nov 07, 2016 7:29 pm

We won't know until the NPA ballots are opened. BUT nearly 80% of votes have already been cast! So if the NPA is where experts are predicting, there's not enough vote for Donald to win. We are feeling really, really confident.

And it's not too late please!!! We need a D Senate too! :P

The Democrats ‏@TheDemocrats 2h2 hours ago
Want to knock on doors to get out the vote for Hillary and other Democrats? Sign up for a shift in your area: http://hillaryclinton.com/GOTV


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Re: #FloridaFloridaFlorida Florida Voting Data for Geeks - Obama's Steve Schale

#69

Post by Slartibartfast » Mon Nov 07, 2016 8:04 pm

Chilidog,

Like Orlylicious said, there's really no way to know until they're counted---essentially, there are too many free parameters in your question. You either have to estimate them so conservatively as to make your answer ridiculous and unhelpful or you have to set them with nothing more than educated guesses as to their value and have a margin of error that is huge.

It is clear that the early signs are positive, but there's really no way of knowing just how good they are until we start getting the returns Tuesday night. Hopefully the impact will lead to an early call for Florida.


"Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat."
---Sun Tzu (quoting Thomas Jefferson)
nam-myoho-renge-kyo---Thomas Jefferson (quoting Slartibartfast)

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Re: #FloridaFloridaFlorida Florida Voting Data for Geeks - Obama's Steve Schale

#70

Post by Orlylicious » Tue Nov 08, 2016 8:35 am

Here we go friends! GOTV and here's to making history (and an early FL call hopefully!) Voters totally blew past expectations and the campaign did an amazing job. Even Mark Halperin complimented Robby Mook (love him!)
Mark Halperin ‏@MarkHalperin 1h1 hour ago
Amazing Clinton World feat: @RobbyMook goes wire-to-wire as a well-liked, respected campaign manager. Not even 1 blind quote assailing him
On to the amazing finale:
We made it America.
Tuesday, November 8, 2016 at 12:17AM

To: Anyone who has been reading my memos, Putin included.
From: Steve Schale
Re: We survived, and genuine thanks from me.

First, thank you all for following along for the last two weeks. This memo isn't going to be a big data dump. For those, you can go back and read the other 12 versions of this thing.

But I want to start with a couple of numbers. First: 67. 67% was the percentage of the electorate was white in 2012 -- which by the way was down from 71 in 2012. My foundational assumption was if the electorate was more diverse than 2012, the basic coalition that got President Obama over the line in 2012 would hold. We finish early voting at 65.7 white, 15.3 hispanic, and 13.1 black, with the black number closing in on the 2012 share, and the white number down.

The other thing working into play here is the explosion of turnout in Central Florida and Miami. If you reweighted the 2012 election by the current 2016 share of vote by market, Obama would have beaten Romney by almost twice the 2012 margin, or 1.5%. Under same scenario, if you apply the 2012 margins by county to the 2016 turnout, you end up with a nearly 2 point Clinton win. And none of this factors in the likelihood that race will drive larger margins in some areas -- and smaller Republican ones in others.

So as I think about this race, I try to get my head around what both candidates have going for them.

First the factors that Clinton should feel good about:

The electorate is more diverse than 2012.
The Orlando area (Orange and Osceola) and Miami area (Broward and Dade) are turning out a full 3 points higher as a share of the state (29.3% than projected (26.15%).

While Republicans talked about Trump's ability to turn-out low propensity voters, it is Clinton who has turned out 250,000 more low propensity voters.

NPA voters, making up the largest share they've ever made up in a Florida Presidential election, are 4 points more diverse than the electoate at-large, including a 20% Hispanic share.

Voters who do not fit into one of the three main demographic categories are over 50% low propensity, and combined, are 77% Democratic or NPA.

North Florida, a Trump stronghold, is well under its performance targets, yet #Duuuval County, a GOP stronghold, is actually starting Election Day with a 4K voter Democratic edge. Again, this is why the President came to Duval. For Dems, it was never about winning there, but it is all about stopping the tide.

Factors Trump Should Feel Good About

The Fort Myers media market is over-performing its projected market share by about 1%

Democrats have a smaller raw voter lead going into Election Day. While I think there are structural reasons for this, it is still reality.

There are more Republicans who voted in both 2008 and 2012 left to vote than Democrats (though among just 2012 voters, it's basically a tie).

So what does this mean?

Those are not equal ledgers, and pretty much everything that Hillary Clinton wanted to have happen to position herself to win Florida has happened.

I was asked yesterday about a journalist, "So Schale, what would you be worried about if you were in her campaign?"

Truthfully, not a lot. I am normally superstitious about turnout, so of course you worry about that. But at the same time, I also recognize that for Trump to win, he has to have a ridiculously good day. I suspect that when early voting is counted, that she will have won the early vote by 3-4 points, and if early voting is, let's say 2/3rds of all the votes, it means Trump has to win tomorrow by 6-8 points. I don't think 6-8 points is out there today for him.

If you look at the 3.2 million voters who in 2012 who haven't voted yet, even if they all vote, Miami and Orlando still remain well above both their 2012 share and their projected share, and I-10 (Trump Country) still falls below 2012. Also, Fort Myers comes back to life, finishing where it should, about 6.6% of the electorate.

So in other words, even if all those 2012 voters come out -- voters that lean a little Republican, the electorate is still regionally balanced better for Clinton than Obama, is more diverse than it was for Obama, and has an NPA voter pool that is more diverse than it was for Obama -- or in any state where Trump is winning NPAs. Can Trump win today? Sure. Is it likely? Not really.

In other words, what should I be concerned about?

My good friend Tom Eldon, a longtime FL pollster and fellow oenophile, asked me today "On scale of 1-10, how are you feeling?" If I was a 7 going into 2012 (just ask every reporter who heard me make my pitch for why Obama would win a state no one thought he would), and a 10 in 2008, Tom agreed he was also a 9 (sorry to out you bro).

Really it is this simple: If the Clinton operation hits its marks tonight, she's going to win. It's going to be fairly close, probably in the 1.5-2.5 % margin race. It's hard to nail down exactly because I don't have access to campaign polling (real polling, not public polls).

What To Look for?

Data is going to come in very fast today after 7.

Two scenarios: because so much vote is early & will be reported early, if she's going to win by say 2 or more, I think it will be fairly apparent early. Under a point, it will be late.

Brian Corley in Pasco County usually reports first, VBM-ABS just after 7pm. Pinellas is early as well, and often Orange and Duval come not long after. In those counties, you are looking at 60-75% of the vote coming in at one time. If it is relatively close in Duval and Pasco, and she's leading in Pinellas, and Orange is looking +20, she's probably going to win, but it will take time for race to play out. If Orange is bigger than that or if she starts out tied or with a lead in Duval, it could be faster.

Dade will also come, probably around 7:30 (though being Dade, it might be 7:30 on Thursday). As I told a reporter tonight, I have no clue what to expect. She could be up 25, or she might be up 40, but I suspect it will be big. Former is probably a winning number, latter would be tough to beat. Broward should be about the same time. I suspect a margin north of 200K in the early voting.

Around 8pm, the Panhandle will come in. Romney won the Panama City and Pensacola media markets by about 180K votes. So to be super generous, spot Trump 250K in the Central Time Zone. Unless there is something really odd with the reporting - like Dade or Palm Beach report nothing before 8, if she is up in the 300K margin, it will be hard for Trump to overcome. If it is 400 at that point, you can go home.

But we will know pretty early if it is a short night or a long night. But either way, I think it is a steep challenge for Trump. Since he is a golfer - I'll put it this way: I think he's basically facing a 250 yard carry over water, into a little wind, and that's a shot he probably doesn't have in his bag. God knows I don't have that shot anymore. :lol:

Remember, you have to track these on individual county sites until 8. State won't report data until polls close in the CST zone.

What is interesting about Florida is that the margins in counties consistent over time. Outside of a handful of places, we have a decent sense of where it will land. For Trump to win, ths basically has to happen: in 64 counties, he has to get the highest share of any Republican between 2000 and 2012, and he has to keep Clinton's margins in Osceola, Orange, and Dade in the low 20s. He has major problems with the former, namely semi-large places like Sarasota, Polk and Duval, which so no signs of being anywhere near their GOP highs. And with the latter, I don't see how Clinton doesn't stretch Obama's margins in all three of those counties.

So with that, I think she wins. In fact, I am pretty confident. I don't think it's a huge margin, but no win in FL Presidential or Gubernatorial races these days is huge.

Lastly, I hate Election Day as a staffer. Other than trying to get your side on TV or ordering robo calls, there isn't really anything you can do other than trust your operation, and hanging out in the boiler room all day is about the most horrible thing you can do. I spend most of Eday calling fellow hacks of both parties. I've always found it a strangely congenial day between warriors, mainly because we are all doing the same thing, pretty much sitting around.

Today, I take out my Turkish group, and we are going to go see some campaigning, before heading to Tampa to watch the results.

Finally, and I mean this with all sincerity, I truly appreciate everyone who took the timto read my musings. When I wrote the first one last Tuesday, I did not plan on doing this daily, but it kind of took off. For me, writing is how I think things out, and so over the last two weeks, I've used these memos, not only to provide some data, but also to work through some of the emerging questions about this race. I also hoped to provide some context to the map, from the eyes of someone who has been trying to read defenses for a solid decade on the field of play.

I'd also like to thank my wife for putting up with me not paying attention to anything other than my spreadsheets for two weeks, my friends who have dealt with me constantly responding to emails and texts, and those who have found my voice mail full. I also want to thank my friend Dan Smith at UF for letting me bounce some theories and data off him, as well as other hack friends, including more than one Republican that I won't name to protect the innocent, for being good checks on what I was writing. I don't have staff, and for 99% of the time, I was doing all my own data work, so forgive me if I didn't respond to you on phone, email or twitter. I've been drinking straight from the proverbial fire hose since about 2pm on day one of in-person voting. As I've told many reporters, my respect for how they manage the flow of information has substantially risen - and thanks to all of you for your feedback over the last two weeks.

I've enjoyed having a life for most this cycle, but it was fun to be in the game for a few weeks. But mostly, having not slept more than 5 hours in 2 weeks, or eaten more than 2-3 proper meals, I'm ready for it to end. It's time to put this shibacle of an election behind & hopefully start reducing the acrimony on both sides of the American debate.

So until 2020 -- if I am crazy enough to do this again, Happy Election Day, that singular day when we get to renew the greatest experiment in self-governing man has ever known.
:banana: :cheer: :flag:


Avatar Photo: Cindy Hyde-Smith, Racist Mississippi Senator took this photo during a 2014 visit to the Jefferson Davis Home and Presidential Library. "Mississippi history at its best!" Hyde-Smith exclaimed.

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Re: #FloridaFloridaFlorida Florida Voting Data for Geeks - Obama's Steve Schale

#71

Post by Orlylicious » Tue Nov 08, 2016 3:33 pm

More updates soon, have been GOTV, Broward and Dade are coming through YUGELY! :thumbs:

Tom Bonier @tbonier
Broward County. 67% Obama '12. As of 2:30 PM, total turnout exceeds final '12 total vote by over 4,700 votes.
4:00 PM - 8 Nov 2016
Data: http://www.voterfocus.com/voterturnout/ ... ection=213#

Experimental real-time turnout projections from Slate and VoteCastr:
Slate's current #Florida vote projection 3:20pm: HRC 4,225,249, Donald 3,947,947 http://www.slate.com/votecastr_election ... acker.html
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Avatar Photo: Cindy Hyde-Smith, Racist Mississippi Senator took this photo during a 2014 visit to the Jefferson Davis Home and Presidential Library. "Mississippi history at its best!" Hyde-Smith exclaimed.

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Re: #FloridaFloridaFlorida Florida Voting Data for Geeks - Obama's Steve Schale

#72

Post by Slartibartfast » Tue Nov 08, 2016 3:45 pm

Orlylicious wrote:More updates soon, have been GOTV, Broward and Dade are coming through YUGELY! :thumbs:
I wonder how much of a post-mortem we'll be able to do on this to see if it is accurate. My gut feeling is that it (like the numbers of Steve Schale) will be an underestimate due to new demographic trends (i.e. increased Hispanic turnout) that aren't present in their reference data. In any case, I think that looking at the Florida results this year is going to be extremely enlightening about a number of things.


"Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat."
---Sun Tzu (quoting Thomas Jefferson)
nam-myoho-renge-kyo---Thomas Jefferson (quoting Slartibartfast)

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Re: #FloridaFloridaFlorida Florida Voting Data for Geeks - Obama's Steve Schale

#73

Post by listeme » Tue Nov 08, 2016 4:07 pm

Benchmark politics, which I followed for the primaries, does county level demographic and other analysis to make his (her/their?) predictions. They had a great record in the primaries.

They also are useful to keep open while returns are coming in, because they know which counties can make a difference (and population and so on).

They got a spiffy new website after the primaries. This is their Florida page. http://benchmark.shareblue.com/florida/


We're used to being told it's our fault that men don't listen to us.

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Re: #FloridaFloridaFlorida Florida Voting Data for Geeks - Obama's Steve Schale

#74

Post by Orlylicious » Tue Nov 08, 2016 4:48 pm

Lily Adams ‏@adamslily 45m45 minutes ago
Key counties of Miami Dade, Hillsborough, and Broward have also surpassed 2012 turnout.

Tom Bonier @tbonier
Uh, wow. Obama won Orange County, FL by 18%. They are reporting 45k MORE ballots cast than all of '12, with over 3 hours of voting left.

Live Broward actual voter data 4:40pm http://www.voterfocus.com/voterturnout/ ... ection=213# (Live updates)
Image

#DoomForDonald


Avatar Photo: Cindy Hyde-Smith, Racist Mississippi Senator took this photo during a 2014 visit to the Jefferson Davis Home and Presidential Library. "Mississippi history at its best!" Hyde-Smith exclaimed.

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Re: #FloridaFloridaFlorida Florida Voting Data for Geeks - Obama's Steve Schale

#75

Post by Slartibartfast » Tue Nov 08, 2016 4:53 pm

This is really shaping up to be the anti-2000. Florida gets called early and everyone but Fuckface von Clownstick knows it's over.

Great work Orlylicious!


"Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat."
---Sun Tzu (quoting Thomas Jefferson)
nam-myoho-renge-kyo---Thomas Jefferson (quoting Slartibartfast)

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