Presidential Approval Polls 2017, 2018

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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017, 2018

#776

Post by Addie » Tue May 08, 2018 8:44 am

FiveThirtyEight - Nate Silver
President Trump’s Approval Rating Has Been Steady. Richard Nixon’s Once Was Too. ...

This is a complicated subject — but let’s ask a relatively simple, empirical question: If a president’s approval ratings are stable early in his term, does that tend to imply that they’ll also be stable later on? In other words, is it safe to assume that Trump’s approval ratings will continue to vary only within a narrow range from the high 30s through the low 40s, given that that’s what’s happened so far?

The short answer is no, that is not a safe assumption. There are several presidents whose approval ratings were steady early in their terms — not quite as steady as Trump’s, but steady — but then became volatile later on.

For each president, I’ve compiled Gallup approval ratings data (I’m using only Gallup data because it allows for apples-to-apples comparisons2) at three stages of his presidency: in the first 500 days of his first term (Trump will hit the 500-day mark on June 3), in the remainder of his first term, and (if applicable) in his second term. Then I looked at the 95th and 5th percentile of Gallup approval ratings that each president achieved during each period. The area between those two percentiles is the range that the president’s approval rating traveled within except for short-lived outliers. For instance, Trump’s 95th percentile in Gallup so far is a 43 percent approval rating, while his 5th percentile is a 35 percent approval rating — a difference of only 8 percentage points.3 Trump has occasionally been higher or lower than that4 but not on a sustained basis. (Note: When I use the term “range” throughout the remainder of this article, I’ll be referring to the difference between the president’s 5th and 95th percentile approval ratings, and not the absolute minimum and maximum.) ...



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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017, 2018

#777

Post by Addie » Thu May 10, 2018 10:53 am

Sun-Sentinel
Poll: Donald Trump approval edges up in Florida though many wish Obama was still president ...

A Florida Atlantic University Poll scheduled for release Wednesday found 43 percent approve and 45 percent disapprove of Trump’s performance, a net negative of 2 percentage points. ...

-- The state’s voters prefer former President Barack Obama over Trump. Asked who they’d rather have as president, 49 percent picked Obama; 43 percent said Trump.

As with most poll questions related to Trump, big differences surface based on gender and political affiliation. Among women, 53 percent said they’d prefer Obama as president; among men, 44 percent said they’d rather have Obama than Trump. For Democrats, 80 percent would prefer Obama and among Republicans, 79 percent said they’d rather have Trump.

-- Voters aren’t wild about Trump’s only major domestic accomplishment since taking office, the Republican tax cuts the president signed into law in December. Just 29 percent said the tax law has helped them financially, 19 percent said the tax law has hurt them and 52 percent said it has made no difference.

Men were more positive about the tax cut, with 36 percent saying they were helped, than women, with just 23 percent said they were helped. Among men, 47 percent said it made no difference and among women 56 percent said it made no difference. Republicans were also much happier with the tax cut (44 percent said they were helped) than Democrats (16 percent said they were helped).


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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017, 2018

#778

Post by Sam the Centipede » Thu May 10, 2018 8:31 pm

How can 43% -- not far off half -- of people approve of the antics of the Orange Shitgibbon and hus cabal of crooks, cheats and liars? What is there to approve of, for anybody whose name isn't Trump? He's done nothing that benefits anybody.

What is wrong with the US population? Has the oxygen in the atmosphere been secretly replaced by stupid gas?



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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017, 2018

#779

Post by Sterngard Friegen » Thu May 10, 2018 9:06 pm

Sam the Centipede wrote:
Thu May 10, 2018 8:31 pm
How can 43% -- not far off half -- of people approve of the antics of the Orange Shitgibbon and hus cabal of crooks, cheats and liars? What is there to approve of, for anybody whose name isn't Trump? He's done nothing that benefits anybody.

What is wrong with the US population? Has the oxygen in the atmosphere been secretly replaced by stupid gas?
It's the economy. The press is reporting that it's booming. Even though real wages are not up. Employment is up, but for many it's underemployment.



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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017, 2018

#780

Post by RVInit » Thu May 10, 2018 9:26 pm

Plus, a whole bunch of them watch Faux "news". You think they hear any of the real crap Trump is doing ? Not a chance. All Faux tells their viewers is that life is grand and Trump is why. And they buy it.


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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017, 2018

#781

Post by pipistrelle » Fri May 11, 2018 7:12 am

Sam the Centipede wrote:
Thu May 10, 2018 8:31 pm
How can 43% -- not far off half -- of people approve of the antics of the Orange Shitgibbon and hus cabal of crooks, cheats and liars? What is there to approve of, for anybody whose name isn't Trump? He's done nothing that benefits anybody.

What is wrong with the US population? Has the oxygen in the atmosphere been secretly replaced by stupid gas?
I suspect a percentage of that aren't following his antics. Just that they still go through their normal daily routine and it hasn't changed, so he must be doing something right.



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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017, 2018

#782

Post by Addie » Sat May 12, 2018 8:36 am

WaPo
Most people don’t think poor families have benefited at all from President Trump’s policies, new poll says ...

A new Monmouth University poll shows few Americans feel poor families are winning as much as Trump claims the GOP is winning.

According to the poll:

Most Americans -- 53 percent -- say low-income families have not benefited at all from Trump's policies. The poll, conducted April 26 to April 30, questioned 803 adults in the United States. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Only 12 percent of those surveyed say poor families have benefited a lot, and about a quarter (28 percent) say they have benefited a little. ...

Despite a relatively strong economy, about one in four (24 percent) people say they are struggling to remain where they are financially. ...

A March CNBC’s All America Economic Survey found most respondents -- 52 percent -- have seen no change at all in their paychecks despite $1.5 trillion in GOP tax cuts. While Trump often touts the successes of the stock market under his administration, rarely does he acknowledge that the majority of Americans -- especially those from low-income families -- are not invested in the stock market.


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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017, 2018

#783

Post by Addie » Thu May 17, 2018 2:34 pm

Bloomberg OpEd - Albert R. Hunt
Voters Miss Obama. Why? Integrity.

A CNN poll last week showed that most Americans think Barack Obama was a better president than Donald Trump has been. The margin was huge: 19 percentage points.

Trump supporters will yell "fake news," but they'll be wrong. Respondents to the same survey thought Hillary Clinton would have been a better president than Trump, but only by three percentage points. By comparison, she bested Trump in the 2016 popular vote by 2.1 percentage points.

The wide preference for Obama over Trump (and Clinton) has little relationship to public attitudes toward policies on taxes, health care or Iran. (Obama and Clinton are pretty well-aligned on those.)

The explanation seems simpler: a respect for integrity. Obama had it, running a largely corruption-free administration. The Trump presidency, all 16 months of it, has been marked by lies, greed, ethical transgressions and criminal charges.

None of these offenses daunts the hardcore Trump base. But another 10 percent of the voters who cast ballots for him in 2016 are showing signs of being bothered, as suggested in an exquisite 15,000 word article last weekend on Trump voters in the Upper Midwest by the Washington Post's Dan Balz. These voters, Democratic Congresswoman Cheri Bustos told Balz, were "Trump triers" who turned to him either because they were turned off by Clinton or wanted to shake things up. They expect a modicum of integrity.


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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017, 2018

#784

Post by Addie » Thu May 24, 2018 9:12 pm

Newsweek
Trump Administration is Most Unethical in Recent U.S. History, Americans Say in New Poll

President Donald Trump campaigned on a promise to “drain the swamp” but, according to a new poll, Americans believe he is running the most unethical administration in recent United States history. Just 37 percent of respondents to a Gallup survey released Thursday said that the ethical standards of Trump and his officials were either excellent or good, by far the lowest since the polling company began asking the question during Ronald Reagan’s first term in 1983.

By comparison, exactly half of all respondents said that Trump’s predecessor, Barack Obama, was running an administration with either excellent or good ethics. The highest mark in the poll’s history was achieved in the second year of George W. Bush’s presidency, when 74 percent registered a positive view of his administration’s ethics. The lowest mark before Trump was the 43 percent received by Bill Clinton at the start of 1994.

The results suggest that Americans are far from convinced that Trump is following through on his promise to clean up Washington, as he so regularly and vehemently vowed on the campaign trail. In his 16 months in office, Trump’s White House has been besieged with a series of ethics scandals.


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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017, 2018

#785

Post by Danraft » Fri May 25, 2018 4:39 am

Evangelicals show themselves to have a lack of an interior moral compass and a lack of compassion.


"In October 2016, after The Washington Post published the “Access Hollywood” tape in which Trump describes groping women, the pollsters at PRRI asked Americans whether an elected official who’d committed an immoral act in their personal life could still behave ethically in office. In 2011, 30 percent of evangelicals said that he or she could, the lowest percentage of any religious group. In 2016, 72 percent of evangelicals said that the politician could do so — the highest percentage."
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"But Pew’s new research includes a fascinating detail: No group agrees less with the idea that the United States has a responsibility to accept refugees than white evangelical Protestants.

Only 25 percent of evangelicals told Pew that they believed the United States has such a responsibility, half the percentage of Catholics who said the same thing and substantially lower than the religiously unaffiliated. In statistical terms, the percentage of evangelicals holding that view was about equal to the percentage of Republicans, 26 percent, given margins of error."

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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017, 2018

#786

Post by Carl von Ossietsky » Fri May 25, 2018 5:03 am

Evangelicals: "Hate your next door neighbor - but don't forget to say grace!"


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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017, 2018

#787

Post by bob » Sat May 26, 2018 2:04 pm

538 presently has the president at 42.7% approval/52.3% approval (net -9.9%).

The last time the president's approval was this high was March 17, 2017. (Ditto with the lowness of the net level.)


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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017, 2018

#788

Post by Suranis » Sat May 26, 2018 2:22 pm

His disapproval rating isn't budging though. Its a fairly constant 52%


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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017, 2018

#789

Post by Addie » Tue May 29, 2018 9:52 am

Gallup
Presidential Moral Leadership Less Important to Republicans

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Republicans are much less likely now than they were during the Bill Clinton years to say it is very important for the president to provide moral leadership for the U.S. Democrats, on the other hand, are more likely to believe moral leadership is important now, with Donald Trump in office, than they were under Clinton. ...

Both Clinton, a Democrat, and Trump, a Republican, faced substantial controversy during their presidential campaigns, and it followed them after they were elected president. It appears that some partisans may discount the importance of the president providing moral leadership when a sitting president from their own party is under scrutiny. At the same time, some supporters of the opposition party may magnify the importance of moral leadership when this is a weak area for the incumbent.

This turning of the tables is evident in the flip in Republican and Democratic views about the importance of the president providing a good moral role model between the Clinton and Trump eras. Republicans, by 22 points, were much more likely than Democrats to say it was very important for the president to be a moral leader when Clinton was in office. Now with Trump in office, Democrats are more likely than Republicans to hold this view, by 14 points.

Independents are slightly less likely now (62%) than during the Clinton years (69%) to regard presidential leadership on morals as important. ...

Gallup has asked this moral leadership question only during the Clinton and Trump administrations, as it was less of an issue for presidents whose administrations were far less consumed by scandal.


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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017, 2018

#790

Post by Addie » Thu May 31, 2018 1:46 pm

Politico
Poll: Trump’s tweets damage the nation

A majority of voters believe President Donald Trump’s Twitter feed is harmful to his presidency and the nation’s standing in the world.

The president‘s Twitter feed, which has more than 52 million followers, is his primary communications tool. But more than 3 in 5 voters, 62 percent, think Trump’s use of Twitter is “a bad thing,“ up from 59 percent a year ago. Only 20 percent call Trump’s tweeting “a good thing,“ down slightly from 23 percent last June, according to a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll.

Nearly 3 in 4 voters take issue with the frequency of his habit — 72 percent say Trump uses Twitter too much, up from 69 percent last June.

Even among Republicans, a majority says Trump tweets too much: 58 percent, up from 53 percent this time last year.

Still, there’s little evidence it’s costing him with the GOP base.

"Although Republicans voters agree President Trump’s use of Twitter is excessive, they do not necessarily think it’s damaging his agenda,” said Kyle Dropp, Morning Consult’s co-founder and chief research officer. “While 58 percent of Republicans say President Trump uses Twitter too much, only 38 percent say his Twitter use is a bad thing.”


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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017, 2018

#791

Post by Addie » Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:48 am

Worth reading in full.

Public Policy Polling
Tax Reform Still Not Helping GOP; Dems Lead House Ballot By 6 ...

Where Trump stands, currently and in historical context

Donald Trump continues to fare poorly, with 39% of voters approving of him to 54% who disapprove. We asked some questions putting Trump in recent historical perspective. 40% of voters say he’s the worst President of the last 40 years to 32% for Barack Obama, with no one else measuring in double digits. When it comes to the best President during that time period, Trump finishes third at 16% behind Obama’s 29% and Ronald Reagan’s 25%. Even among Trump voters 49% pick Reagan as the best President of the last four decades to 38% for Trump so it’s still Reagan’s party to some extent. 53% of voters wish Obama was still President to 41% who are glad Trump is in office.


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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017, 2018

#792

Post by Addie » Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:07 pm

Associated Press
Poll: 57% Of Parents Agree With 73% Of Young People Who Disapprove Of Trump ...

They’re part of a majority of American young people and their parents who disapprove of the job the president is doing, a poll shows. The survey conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research and MTV found that 57 percent of parents and 73 percent of young people ages 15 to 26 disapprove of the president’s performance.

The common ground doesn’t end there. The generations also agree that politics have become dysfunctional, and both say they’re dissatisfied with the two-party system.

On issues broadly, a 55 percent majority of young people and their parents say they usually see eye to eye, and 31 percent say they debate things diplomatically. Just 9 percent say they avoid talking politics, and only 5 percent say their debates turn into “World War III.”

And most say they agree with each other on a wide variety of individual issues, including feelings on the economy, health care, immigration, racism and abortion.

Still, hotheadedness abounds over politics, as anyone who has access to the internet knows. The survey showed that online, especially, politics seeps into interactions with extended family members. Twenty percent of young people and their parents say they have done the virtual equivalent of uninviting a family member — by blocking them or unfriending them — because of a disagreement over politics. An equal percentage of both generations say they have been blocked or unfriended.


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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017, 2018

#793

Post by Addie » Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:18 am

FiveThirtyEight: How Trump’s Popularity Is Holding Up, By State


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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017, 2018

#794

Post by Addie » Tue Jun 19, 2018 12:29 pm

WaPo - Jennifer Rubin
Voters don’t agree with Trump on ‘dreamers’ — or on separating kids

The president has refused to fix the “dreamer” problem that he created by rescinding the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program. He refuses to take responsibility for or end the zero-tolerance policy and the attendant separation and internment of children. How’s that working out for him?

The Quinnipiac poll found that voters oppose child separation, 66 percent to 27 percent. “Republican voters support the separation policy 55 — 35 percent, the only listed party, gender, education, age or racial group to support it.” Blindly following President Trump, as a majority of the GOP seems inclined to do, differentiates these voters from their fellow Americans. (If it is hard to conceive of an adult who favors child separation, you are getting a clue as to how irrational and unhinged — deplorable! — are a good segment of the GOP.) Women, who already were not disposed to support this president, oppose the policy, 70 percent to 22 percent.

Asked if legal immigration should be increased, should be decreased or should stay the same, a surprising 30 percent want immigration increased, 49 percent to stay the same and only 17 percent to decrease. Even among Republicans, only 28 percent want it decreased.

The wall, as it has been from the start of Trump’s presidency, is a loser . Voters oppose it, 58 percent to 39 percent; only Republicans and non-college-educated whites approve of the idea.

As for dreamers, 67 percent want them to stay and get citizenship, 8 percent want them to stay without citizenship and a measly 19 percent want them thrown out. Even a plurality (48 percent) of Republicans want them to stay with citizenship.


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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017, 2018

#795

Post by TollandRCR » Tue Jun 19, 2018 12:41 pm

The Republicans never had a "tax reform" plan. At best, they had a plan to reward corporations and satisfy their wealthiest donors. A tax reform plan woild have worked towards reducing the income and wealth inequalities in the nation.

This is, of course, a Democratic perspective. So why are the Democrats not proclaiming this from the rooftops?


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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017, 2018

#796

Post by much ado » Tue Jun 19, 2018 12:50 pm

TollandRCR wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 12:41 pm
The Republicans never had a "tax reform" plan. At best, they had a plan to reward corporations and satisfy their wealthiest donors. A tax reform plan woild have worked towards reducing the income and wealth inequalities in the nation.

This is, of course, a Democratic perspective. So why are the Democrats not proclaiming this from the rooftops?
I. Have. No. Idea.



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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017, 2018

#797

Post by MN-Skeptic » Tue Jun 19, 2018 1:04 pm

TollandRCR wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 12:41 pm
This is, of course, a Democratic perspective. So why are the Democrats not proclaiming this from the rooftops?
The news cycle is fed off of Trump’s shenanigans. What did Trump do? How does his administration spin it? Interview a bunch of Republicans and a couple of Democrats. Rinse and repeat. There is no place, today, for the Democrats’ tax plan.


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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017, 2018

#798

Post by June bug » Tue Jun 19, 2018 1:57 pm

MN-Skeptic wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 1:04 pm
TollandRCR wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 12:41 pm
This is, of course, a Democratic perspective. So why are the Democrats not proclaiming this from the rooftops?
The news cycle is fed off of Trump’s shenanigans. What did Trump do? How does his administration spin it? Interview a bunch of Republicans and a couple of Democrats. Rinse and repeat. There is no place, today, for the Democrats’ tax plan.
Then the Democrats need to make a place for it. They need to stop reacting to the latest outrage du jour and drop any mention of impeachment, which is never going to happen.

What's needed is to put plans front and center for real tax reform, comprehensive immigration reform, health care, and a jobs program that focuses on modernizing and repairing our infrastructure and on retraining our work force for the jobs of the future. Hillary actually did all that but, fairly or not, her message didn't get through where it counted the most: Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan.



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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017, 2018

#799

Post by kate520 » Tue Jun 19, 2018 1:59 pm

DEFEND DEMOCRACY


DEFEND DEMOCRACY

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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017, 2018

#800

Post by TollandRCR » Tue Jun 19, 2018 2:14 pm

Kate520 is right, as is June bug. There is no point in talking about impeachment -- unless you have no real ideas to put forward. I hope that is not the case.

The Democrats out here (outside DC) have all sorts of winning ideas. Are the Democrats in Congress courageous enough to advance them?

I have the hopefully mistaken impression that Congressional Democrats are scared to death of Trump and his loud mouth.


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