Presidential Approval Polls 2017, 2018

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Addie
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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017, 2018

#776

Post by Addie » Tue May 08, 2018 8:44 am

FiveThirtyEight - Nate Silver
President Trump’s Approval Rating Has Been Steady. Richard Nixon’s Once Was Too. ...

This is a complicated subject — but let’s ask a relatively simple, empirical question: If a president’s approval ratings are stable early in his term, does that tend to imply that they’ll also be stable later on? In other words, is it safe to assume that Trump’s approval ratings will continue to vary only within a narrow range from the high 30s through the low 40s, given that that’s what’s happened so far?

The short answer is no, that is not a safe assumption. There are several presidents whose approval ratings were steady early in their terms — not quite as steady as Trump’s, but steady — but then became volatile later on.

For each president, I’ve compiled Gallup approval ratings data (I’m using only Gallup data because it allows for apples-to-apples comparisons2) at three stages of his presidency: in the first 500 days of his first term (Trump will hit the 500-day mark on June 3), in the remainder of his first term, and (if applicable) in his second term. Then I looked at the 95th and 5th percentile of Gallup approval ratings that each president achieved during each period. The area between those two percentiles is the range that the president’s approval rating traveled within except for short-lived outliers. For instance, Trump’s 95th percentile in Gallup so far is a 43 percent approval rating, while his 5th percentile is a 35 percent approval rating — a difference of only 8 percentage points.3 Trump has occasionally been higher or lower than that4 but not on a sustained basis. (Note: When I use the term “range” throughout the remainder of this article, I’ll be referring to the difference between the president’s 5th and 95th percentile approval ratings, and not the absolute minimum and maximum.) ...



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Addie
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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017, 2018

#777

Post by Addie » Thu May 10, 2018 10:53 am

Sun-Sentinel
Poll: Donald Trump approval edges up in Florida though many wish Obama was still president ...

A Florida Atlantic University Poll scheduled for release Wednesday found 43 percent approve and 45 percent disapprove of Trump’s performance, a net negative of 2 percentage points. ...

-- The state’s voters prefer former President Barack Obama over Trump. Asked who they’d rather have as president, 49 percent picked Obama; 43 percent said Trump.

As with most poll questions related to Trump, big differences surface based on gender and political affiliation. Among women, 53 percent said they’d prefer Obama as president; among men, 44 percent said they’d rather have Obama than Trump. For Democrats, 80 percent would prefer Obama and among Republicans, 79 percent said they’d rather have Trump.

-- Voters aren’t wild about Trump’s only major domestic accomplishment since taking office, the Republican tax cuts the president signed into law in December. Just 29 percent said the tax law has helped them financially, 19 percent said the tax law has hurt them and 52 percent said it has made no difference.

Men were more positive about the tax cut, with 36 percent saying they were helped, than women, with just 23 percent said they were helped. Among men, 47 percent said it made no difference and among women 56 percent said it made no difference. Republicans were also much happier with the tax cut (44 percent said they were helped) than Democrats (16 percent said they were helped).


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Sam the Centipede
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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017, 2018

#778

Post by Sam the Centipede » Thu May 10, 2018 8:31 pm

How can 43% -- not far off half -- of people approve of the antics of the Orange Shitgibbon and hus cabal of crooks, cheats and liars? What is there to approve of, for anybody whose name isn't Trump? He's done nothing that benefits anybody.

What is wrong with the US population? Has the oxygen in the atmosphere been secretly replaced by stupid gas?



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Sterngard Friegen
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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017, 2018

#779

Post by Sterngard Friegen » Thu May 10, 2018 9:06 pm

Sam the Centipede wrote:
Thu May 10, 2018 8:31 pm
How can 43% -- not far off half -- of people approve of the antics of the Orange Shitgibbon and hus cabal of crooks, cheats and liars? What is there to approve of, for anybody whose name isn't Trump? He's done nothing that benefits anybody.

What is wrong with the US population? Has the oxygen in the atmosphere been secretly replaced by stupid gas?
It's the economy. The press is reporting that it's booming. Even though real wages are not up. Employment is up, but for many it's underemployment.



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RVInit
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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017, 2018

#780

Post by RVInit » Thu May 10, 2018 9:26 pm

Plus, a whole bunch of them watch Faux "news". You think they hear any of the real crap Trump is doing ? Not a chance. All Faux tells their viewers is that life is grand and Trump is why. And they buy it.


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pipistrelle
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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017, 2018

#781

Post by pipistrelle » Fri May 11, 2018 7:12 am

Sam the Centipede wrote:
Thu May 10, 2018 8:31 pm
How can 43% -- not far off half -- of people approve of the antics of the Orange Shitgibbon and hus cabal of crooks, cheats and liars? What is there to approve of, for anybody whose name isn't Trump? He's done nothing that benefits anybody.

What is wrong with the US population? Has the oxygen in the atmosphere been secretly replaced by stupid gas?
I suspect a percentage of that aren't following his antics. Just that they still go through their normal daily routine and it hasn't changed, so he must be doing something right.



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Addie
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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017, 2018

#782

Post by Addie » Sat May 12, 2018 8:36 am

WaPo
Most people don’t think poor families have benefited at all from President Trump’s policies, new poll says ...

A new Monmouth University poll shows few Americans feel poor families are winning as much as Trump claims the GOP is winning.

According to the poll:

Most Americans -- 53 percent -- say low-income families have not benefited at all from Trump's policies. The poll, conducted April 26 to April 30, questioned 803 adults in the United States. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Only 12 percent of those surveyed say poor families have benefited a lot, and about a quarter (28 percent) say they have benefited a little. ...

Despite a relatively strong economy, about one in four (24 percent) people say they are struggling to remain where they are financially. ...

A March CNBC’s All America Economic Survey found most respondents -- 52 percent -- have seen no change at all in their paychecks despite $1.5 trillion in GOP tax cuts. While Trump often touts the successes of the stock market under his administration, rarely does he acknowledge that the majority of Americans -- especially those from low-income families -- are not invested in the stock market.


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Addie
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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017, 2018

#783

Post by Addie » Thu May 17, 2018 2:34 pm

Bloomberg OpEd - Albert R. Hunt
Voters Miss Obama. Why? Integrity.

A CNN poll last week showed that most Americans think Barack Obama was a better president than Donald Trump has been. The margin was huge: 19 percentage points.

Trump supporters will yell "fake news," but they'll be wrong. Respondents to the same survey thought Hillary Clinton would have been a better president than Trump, but only by three percentage points. By comparison, she bested Trump in the 2016 popular vote by 2.1 percentage points.

The wide preference for Obama over Trump (and Clinton) has little relationship to public attitudes toward policies on taxes, health care or Iran. (Obama and Clinton are pretty well-aligned on those.)

The explanation seems simpler: a respect for integrity. Obama had it, running a largely corruption-free administration. The Trump presidency, all 16 months of it, has been marked by lies, greed, ethical transgressions and criminal charges.

None of these offenses daunts the hardcore Trump base. But another 10 percent of the voters who cast ballots for him in 2016 are showing signs of being bothered, as suggested in an exquisite 15,000 word article last weekend on Trump voters in the Upper Midwest by the Washington Post's Dan Balz. These voters, Democratic Congresswoman Cheri Bustos told Balz, were "Trump triers" who turned to him either because they were turned off by Clinton or wanted to shake things up. They expect a modicum of integrity.


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