Presidential Approval Polls 2017

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Addie
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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by Addie » Wed Aug 30, 2017 9:15 pm

The Hill
Fox News poll: Majority thinks Trump is tearing the country apart

A majority of voters believe President Trump is tearing the country apart, according to a new Fox News poll released Wednesday.

Fifty-six percent of respondents in the poll said Trump is “tearing the country apart,” compared to the 33 percent who think he’s “drawing the country together.”

Democrats overwhelmingly — 93 percent — said Trump is dividing the nation. Only 15 percent of Republicans agree with that statement, as do 53 percent of independents.

Sixty-eight percent of Republicans said he’s drawing the country together.

Trump also received his worst approval ratings in the Fox News poll to date. He earned a 41 percent approval rating, with 55 percent saying they disapprove of the job he’s doing.
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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by Sunrise » Wed Aug 30, 2017 10:10 pm

How soon will 45 refer to this poll as FAKE NEWS!!! ? :lol:b

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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by gupwalla » Thu Aug 31, 2017 12:33 am

Addie wrote:Sixty-eight percent of Republicans said he’s drawing the country together.
He is drawing the country together. In opposition to him.
In a wilderness of mirrors, what will the spider do beyond the circuit of the shuddering Bear in fractured atoms? -TS Eliot (somewhat modified)

All warfare is based on deception. - Sun Tzu

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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by Addie » Thu Aug 31, 2017 8:21 am

NBC News
Poll: Most Oppose Trump’s Pardon for Ex-Sheriff Arpaio, Booting ‘Dreamers’

More than half of Americans disapprove of President Donald Trump’s decision to pardon former Arizona sheriff Joe Arpaio, while nearly two-thirds said they support a program allowing "Dreamers" to stay in the U.S., which Trump is expected to end, according to a new NBC News|SurveyMonkey poll.

Six in 10 said they felt it was "wrong" for Trump to pardon Arpaio, who was convicted last month of criminal contempt for ignoring a judge’s order not to detain suspected undocumented immigrants.

Thirty-four percent of respondents said they felt Trump’s pardon was "the right thing" to do. ...

The poll also found that 64 percent of Americans support DACA, the Obama-era program allowing young people — known as "Dreamers" — who came to the U.S. illegally as children to remain here. Some also came legally but their visas expired. ...

The NBC News|SurveyMonkey poll, meanwhile, found that 30 percent of Americans oppose DACA.
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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by Addie » Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:39 am

Newsweek
Polls Show Trump, the Least Popular President Ever, Has Seen His Approval Rating Plunge to the Basement

President Donald Trump has not been particularly well liked since the day he took office—in fact, he has been unpopular among a large slice of Americans for much longer than that—and that doesn't seem to be improving as his presidency progresses. In fact, according to Friday's Gallup daily tracking survey, his approval rating has sunk to tie his lowest-ever figure.

Trump's approval stood at 34 percent in the Gallup poll, tied for his lowest mark ever—a figure he has hit several times (and as recently as last week) after hovering at about 35 percent for most of the week. Trump's disapproval number stood at 60 percent in the Gallup survey.

Other polls have not been kind to the former reality-TV star turned leader of the free world. The FiveThirtyEight tracker—which aggregates public polls and creates a weighted average that corrects for quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean—pegged Trump's approval rating at 37.2 percent and his disapproval 57.2 percent on Friday. That's not the lowest he has ever been in the tracker—that would be 36.6 percent—but it's close.

According to FiveThirtyEight, Trump is more unpopular than any other president in the history of modern polling at this point in his first term. Former President Gerald Ford—whose popularity plummeted after he pardoned his predecessor, Richard Nixon, who resigned in disgrace amid the Watergate scandal—was close: On day 224 of his presidency, Ford's approval rating was 37.4 percent, or 0.2 percentage points better than where Trump stands now, according to FiveThirtyEight.
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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by rpenner » Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:35 pm

There is no way 0.2 percentage points is significant. Trump still has a way to fall (or stay flat) before I will crown him as least-liked president. Worst U.S. president however had my vote since before day 1.

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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by RoadScholar » Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:44 pm

I had half expected Trump to be merely horrid, but I never anticipated the gargantuan* fustercluck it is turning out to have been.

(*I love that word, "gargantuan." I so rarely have an opportunity to use it in a sentence. 8-) )
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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by Addie » Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:40 pm

The Hill
Poll: 76 percent of voters say 'Dreamers' should be allowed to stay

More than three-quarters of Americans surveyed think that beneficiaries of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrival (DACA) program should be allowed to stay in the United States, according to a Morning Consult/Politico poll.

Seventy-six percent of respondents that said the government should allow immigrants brought to the U.S. illegally as children to remain. 58 percent of that 76 percent believe they should be able to become citizens if they meet certain requirements, while 18 percent said they should be allowed to become legal residents.

Only 15 percent of respondents said such immigrants — commonly called "Dreamers" — should be deported, the poll found. ...

The Morning Consult/Politico poll found that, while support for allowing Dreamers to remain in the U.S. was highest among Democrats at 84 percent, 69 percent of Republicans surveyed also favor such a policy.
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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by TollandRCR » Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:22 am

Trump was hugging every available child in Houston, handing out meals, and smiling so much his face may lock into that position. I suspect the approval numbers will rise, although this has little to do with being president.
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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by Addie » Wed Sep 06, 2017 9:16 am

The Hill
Michigan poll: Majority worries about Trump having access to nuclear codes ...

An EPIC-MRA poll finds 53 percent of those surveyed are either "very" or "somewhat" worried about Trump having access to the codes, the Detroit Free Press reported.

Just 38 percent of respondents said they aren't worried at all.

Voters are divided about whether they think Trump is mentally stable.

Forty-five percent of respondents think the president is mentally stable, compared to 43 percent who disagree.

Another 12 percent of respondents are undecided.

The poll also found that 62 percent of Michigan voters surveyed have a negative view of Trump's job performance.
Adding:
Detroit Free Press: Poll: 4 out of 10 Michigan voters question President Trump's mental stability ...

The poll found that even though Trump last November became the first Republican to win Michigan since George Bush in 1988, a clear majority of respondents — 56% — believe former Democratic President Barack Obama was a more effective president, compared to a third — 32% — who favor Trump.

EPIC-MRA also asked those surveyed whether they believe Trump’s statements that investigations by congressional committees and the Justice Department into whether his campaign colluded with Russians trying to interfere with last year’s election amount to a “witch hunt” by his political opponents.

Again, a majority — 55% — said they disagreed, compared to 34% who say they agree with Trump and 11% who were undecided or refused to answer.
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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by Addie » Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:34 am

The Hill
Poll: Majority wants Congress to establish path to citizenship for DACA recipients

A majority of voters want Congress to pass legislation that allows undocumented immigrants brought to the U.S. as children to become citizens if they meet certain requirements, according to a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll conducted following the Trump administration’s decision to wind down the program protecting these so-called Dreamers from deportation.

The poll — conducted in the days after Attorney General Jeff Sessions announced that the administration was ending the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, which Sessions described as “unilateral executive amnesty” that “contributed to a surge of unaccompanied minors on the southern border” and “denied jobs to hundreds of thousands of Americans” — shows that 54 percent of voters want Congress to establish a path to citizenship for DACA recipients, and another 19 percent want Congress to allow them to stay without establishing citizenship.

“Not only do a majority, 73 percent, of voters want legislation protecting Dreamers from deportation, a majority want Congress to make that a priority,” said Kyle Dropp, Morning Consult’s co-founder and chief research officer. “Overall, 65 percent of voters say protecting Dreamers should be either an important or top priority for Congress.”

Just 35 percent say ending the DACA program was the right thing to do — fewer than the 45 percent who say it was the wrong thing to do. Two-in-10 voters are not sure.
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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by Addie » Wed Sep 13, 2017 3:58 pm

WaPo
Trump is slowly rupturing the Republican Party, suggests yet another new poll ...

The Pew Research Center released a poll Wednesday showing a sharp drop in Republican-leaning independents who say the GOP label describes them well. While 49 percent said it described them at least “fairly well” back in 2016, just 33 percent say that today. About two-thirds of these nominal Republican voters now say the term describes them “not too well” or “not well at all.”

Among Democratic-leaning voters who subscribe to the “Democrat” label, it has remained basically steady at 42 percent.

We're also seeing this bit in Quinnipiac University's regular polling on the GOP brand. Three Q polls this month have shown between 22 and 25 percent of Americans rate the brand favorably — all three ranking lowest in more than four years of polling.

A big reason for the decline: Republican respondents. Earlier this month, the percentage of Republicans with a positive view of their party dipped to a new low in Quinnipiac's polling: 58 percent. It has since rebounded to 64 percent. ...

But according to Pollster, the 22 percent, 23 percent and 25 percent GOP favorable ratings measured by Quinnipiac this month are all lower than any high-quality poll that asks a binary favorable-unfavorable question since 2012. (The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll has measured it lower, but that poll offers a “neutral” option, which many people opt for.)
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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by NotaPerson » Wed Sep 13, 2017 4:31 pm

We're also seeing this bit in Quinnipiac University's regular polling on the GOP brand. Three Q polls this month have shown between 22 and 25 percent of Americans rate the brand favorably — all three ranking lowest in more than four years of polling.

A big reason for the decline: Republican respondents. Earlier this month, the percentage of Republicans with a positive view of their party dipped to a new low in Quinnipiac's polling: 58 percent.
Interesting. But I wonder how much of this is due to Trump's behavior, versus Republicans in Congress not having passed a single major piece of legislation so far.
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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by Sterngard Friegen » Wed Sep 13, 2017 5:48 pm

Trump is finally doing what he promised to do. He's holding meetings and looking like he's brokering deals. It doesn't require much preparation on his part and he gets good press from it. (I sure hope Rep. Pelosi and Sen. Schumer flatter the hell out of him tonight. He can be played and Dems can play that game very well.)

Look for a significant bump in Trump's popularity. The Feds handled the two hurricanes well and Trump is reaching across the aisle.

Of course, when we hear about more leaks from Robert Mueller's investigation, everything will go horribly wrong and Trump will tweet himself into political obloquy again.

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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by Slartibartfast » Thu Sep 14, 2017 4:26 pm

Trump's net approval rating reached a floor of around -20% and has since rebounded (in the last couple of weeks) to around -17%. Which is probably why we haven't heard much about "historically low approval" lately. I think that if you only look at statistics when they support a narrative you like then what results is more propaganda than science.
"Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat."
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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by bob » Thu Sep 14, 2017 4:40 pm

Slartibartfast wrote:Trump's net approval rating reached a floor of around -20% and has since rebounded (in the last couple of weeks) to around -17%. Which is probably why we haven't heard much about "historically low approval" lately. I think that if you only look at statistics when they support a narrative you like then what results is more propaganda than science.
The president had an awful August -- his approval ratings now are returning to about where they've been lingering since late May.

The president's ratings are historical in that he continues to perform extremely poorly at this point in any modern presidency. The president's approval rating, for example, is currently hovering around Ford's -- after Ford had pardoned Nixon. But Ford's disapproval rating was less, and thus Ford's net disapproval was also less. So even Nixon-pardoning Ford received more approval than the current president.

The president has recovered somewhat from the absolute historically low approval ratings. But to say September 2017 isn't the worst month ever for president overlooks that August 2017 was the worst month ever, and there hasn't been a change of presidents. In other words, at this point, the current president is competing only against himself for worst month ever. At that is historic.
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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by Slartibartfast » Thu Sep 14, 2017 7:59 pm

My point was that if you go looking for ways to support a narrative in data you will probably find them, but you wont find any new insight.
"Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat."
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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by Addie » Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:24 pm

Newsweek
Unlike the Trump-Russia Investigation, Few Americans Care About Building the Border Wall

Compared with those who think building a wall along the Mexico border is a top priority, more than twice as many Americans think investigating Russia’s involvement in the 2016 election is Congress’s first priority through the rest of the year.

The findings come in a Politico-Harvard poll, released Friday, that indicated that lowering prescription drug prices is the No. 1 priority for adults in the United States. ...

Trump has had to backtrack on his claims that Mexico would pay for the wall, a chief campaign promise, and is instead seeking funding from Congress, at least initially. But of the 10 issues raised during the Politico-Harvard survey, building the wall was considered a top priority by the fewest number of Americans—just 11 percent.

By contrast, 23 percent of the 1,016 U.S. adults polled between August 30 and September 3 said that investigating Russia’s role in last year’s election should be a top priority. Russia’s involvement and possible collusion with the Trump campaign is the subject of five ongoing investigations, including four in Congress.
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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by Slartibartfast » Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:38 pm

You know, I'm starting to think that the ubiquity of polling-based narratives has damaged both the credibility and usefulness of poll results. They've become just another meaningless buzz -- a little more white noise in the 24-hour news cycle.

Thanks for keeping us posted on the ongoing death of polling, Addie!
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nam-myoho-renge-kyo---Thomas Jefferson (quoting Slartibartfast)

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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by Addie » Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:49 pm

:kiss:
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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by Dan1100 » Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:01 pm

Slartibartfast wrote:Trump's net approval rating reached a floor of around -20% and has since rebounded (in the last couple of weeks) to around -17%. Which is probably why we haven't heard much about "historically low approval" lately. I think that if you only look at statistics when they support a narrative you like then what results is more propaganda than science.
I am not a polling expert and the actual math has long faded from my memory, but I do understand basic undergraduate level statistics.

People are looking for propaganda in a 3% change for a poll that probably has a statistical margin of error of around 5% with presumably a 90% level of confidence. All of that assumes the sample is perfectly random and/or to the extent it isn't perfectly random, whatever weighting of the sample that is done to compensate for its unrandomness has been done perfectly. It assumes that people tell the truth when talking to pollsters (if anyone ever calls me on the telephone and asks if chocolate milk comes from brown cows, the answer is going to be "Hell Yes.")

Saying anything other than -20% is the same result as -17% is just BS.
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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by Slartibartfast » Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:31 pm

Well, yes and no. Or, more accurately, it's complicated. You've got the spirit of why you should distrust the polling results, but the details of why that is the case are somewhat different. First of all, "margin of error" is a frequentist concept that has, in my opinion, little to no meaning (just like David Farrar had little to no probative evidence), but, even if it did, I'm taking my numbers from 538's aggregation, so individual polling errors should be minimized. I was also comparing the aggregation to itself, so that 3% is probably a real move, albeit one that's not much bigger than the noise. The real problem, in my opinion, is The Boy Who Cried "Wolf!". Data pundits taking results, coming up with often hyperbolic narratives about them, then making mountains out of molehills in their data to support their argument. As each incident is relatively small and, by itself, mostly harmless, we don't notice that the whole of polling is suffering from 1,000 cuts.

This is just my opinion and I'm not a polling expert, but I am a data scientist (meaning I have the kind of knowledge it takes to train polling experts and develop polling methodologies) and, more importantly, you can look at what I describe yourself and see that it is real.
"Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat."
---Sun Tzu (quoting Thomas Jefferson)
nam-myoho-renge-kyo---Thomas Jefferson (quoting Slartibartfast)

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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by RoadScholar » Fri Sep 15, 2017 3:05 pm

It's relatively easy to conclude that X could be the cause of Y. Getting from there to X is the cause of Y... well, that's a kettle of fish of a different color. Too many pundits, like the Underwear Gnomes on South Park, leap from step one to step three without addressing the second step: proving a causal connexion.
The bitterest truth is healthier than the sweetest lie.

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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by Slartibartfast » Fri Sep 15, 2017 4:23 pm

RoadScholar wrote:It's relatively easy to conclude that X could be the cause of Y. Getting from there to X is the cause of Y... well, that's a kettle of fish of a different color. Too many pundits, like the Underwear Gnomes on South Park, leap from step one to step three without addressing the second step: proving a causal connexion.
Yes, most of them get tripped up with the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy and the rest usually end up with nothing but lies, damned lies, and statistics. However, I don't think you understand the Underpants Gnomes' philosophy, which I believe provides an effective structure for a flexible and innovative group to follow. You will recall their plan:
  1. Collect Underpants
  2. ????????
  3. Profit


To me, this says that you should have a clear long-term goal (profit), a well-defined and concrete immediate objective (collect underpants), and you don't need detailed intermediate plans (??????). If you've got your eyes on the prize and you are sure about the next step in that direction, you will be making progress. Whatever is in the ?????? stage will be subject to change once you've finished collecting underpants (no plan survives first contact with the enemy), so while having a plan is important, that has nothing to do with your expectation of following through. Once you have achieved an immediate objective you can consider your plan and how circumstances have changed to identify the next group of underpants you need to collect on your way to profit.

It's quite elegant, don't you think?
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"Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat."
---Sun Tzu (quoting Thomas Jefferson)
nam-myoho-renge-kyo---Thomas Jefferson (quoting Slartibartfast)

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Re: Presidential Approval Polls 2017

Post by RoadScholar » Fri Sep 15, 2017 4:26 pm

Brilliant. Untold riches beckon.
The bitterest truth is healthier than the sweetest lie.

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