Midterms and the Economy - Paging JPC - Dow Plummets 800 Points (Now 1300)

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Midterms and the Economy - Paging JPC - Dow Plummets 800 Points (Now 1300)

#1

Post by Orlylicious » Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:00 pm

The last thing the GOP has to hold on to for the midterms is the economy. Tax cuts and other plans didn't excite voters, and Bart O'Kavanaugh is already fading into the distance for Republican voters. By overheating the economy in a quest for growth, along with the tariffs, it's been predicted this could happen.

JPC, if you have a moment, what's your take on this for the midterms? Does this bounce back or are we looking at a rough October? Asking because if we start to see financial pain, that's going to cut the knees out from under the GOP. As a side note, do you think this is a buying opportunity or do we have further to go?
Dow plummets 800 points in worst drop since February, Amazon and tech shares lead the rout

Dow plummets 800 points in worst drop since February, Amazon and tech shares lead the rout

Dow plummets 800 points in worst drop since March, Amazon and tech shares lead the rout
Fred Imbert @foimbert
Published 10 Hours Ago Updated 8 Mins Ago
CNBC.com

Stocks sank on Wednesday as a steep decline in tech shares and worries of rapidly rising rates sent Wall Street on pace for its worst day in months.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 800 points lower as Intel and Microsoft fell more than 3 percent each. The Nasdaq Composite plummeted 3.5 percent.

The S&P 500 dropped 2.8 percent, with the tech sector underperforming. The broad index was also headed for a five-day losing streak — which would be its longest since late 2016 — and fell below its 50-day moving average, a widely followed technical level.

The Dow was on pace for its worst day since March, while the S&P 500 was tracking for its biggest decline since February.

Stocks have fallen sharply this month. For October, the S&P 500 and the Dow are down more than 3.6 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, has lost more than 6.5 percent.

Rising rate fears and a pivot out of technology stocks have made it a rough last few days. The Dow has dropped four of the last five sessions, losing nearly 900 points over that span.

Shares of Amazon declined nearly 4 percent on Wednesday, while Netflix slid 6.3 percent. Facebook and Apple also fell more than 2 percent each.

"People are getting out of the high-flying tech names right now," said Larry Benedict, CEO of The Opportunistic Trader. "I think people are under-hedged; there could be more pain ahead."

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/10/us-mark ... focus.html


Hurricane Michael to wallop cotton, peanut crops as Category 4 storm hits Florida Panhandle
Farmers in northern Florida have been working overtime to protect crops and livestock as Hurricane Michael hits the coast near Panama City.
Cotton and peanut growers in Florida, Alabama and Georgia have been rushing to prepare for an onslaught of heavy rains and winds that could damage crops.
Officials warn the "potentially catastrophic" Category 4 hurricane could cause "life-threatening storm surges" in the region.
Jeff Daniels | @jeffdanielsca
Published 1 Hour Ago Updated 51 Mins Ago

More than half of the S&P 500 is already in a correction as sell-off worsens
More than half of the stocks in the S&P 500 were in correction territory or worse on Wednesday.
There were 172 components in correction territory, meaning they have fallen by 10 to 20 percent from their 52-week high.
Meanwhile, another 123 stocks were down 20 percent from that level, sitting in bear market territory.
Gina Francolla | Tom DiChristopher
Published 2 Hours Ago Updated 2 Hours Ago


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Re: Midterms and the Economy - Paging JPC - Dow Plummets 800 Points

#2

Post by bob » Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:36 pm

Today was the third largest drop, numerically, for the DJIA. (As a percentage of the DJIA, it didn't merit top 20.)

2018 has seen six of the top 20 largest numerical drops, and three of the top 20 largest numerical gains.


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Re: Midterms and the Economy - Paging JPC - Dow Plummets 800 Points

#3

Post by tek » Wed Oct 10, 2018 5:43 pm

AMZN led the rout?

DJT will be delighted.

That's about all his brain can process in one Big Mac.


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Re: Midterms and the Economy - Paging JPC - Dow Plummets 800 Points

#4

Post by Dan1100 » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:17 pm

https://twitter.com/jdawsey1/status/1050143735370182656
Josh DawseyVerified account @jdawsey1

"The Fed has gone crazy," President Trump tells reporters on Air Force One. Another moment that is unprecedented in the White House.


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Re: Midterms and the Economy - Paging JPC - Dow Plummets 800 Points

#5

Post by Mikedunford » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:29 pm

My speculation, which is undoubtedly nowhere near as sophisticated as what Gregg and John P. can provide:

1: The Fed is trying to apply the brakes to the economy, to keep many things under control.
2: The White House is mashing the gas pedal as hard as they can.

Too, also:
3: If Trump still has a lot of debt that he's servicing, he might not be thrilled at interest rates going up.


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Re: Midterms and the Economy - Paging JPC - Dow Plummets 800 Points

#6

Post by Orlylicious » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:43 pm

I think you're right Mike. Talk about timing, the GOP must be buying Depends.
There's more pain to come for stocks, according to analysts watching the charts
A sharp sell-off pushed the S&P 500 below key technical levels Wednesday.
"The selling is a result of selling the best performing stocks this year and it is difficult to time when that selling pressure will slow," says JC O'Hara of MKM Partners.
The steep decline raises red flags for top chart analysts, who think that more pain could lie ahead for equity investors.
Thomas Franck | Fred Imbert
Published 4 Hours Ago Updated 40 Mins Ago

With the U.S. stock market in the midst of an October sell-off, Wall Street analysts who study charts for a living are worried the situation could get much worse. Among the reasons that have technical analysts concerned are a breakdown in the bull market leaders and a drop by the S&P 500 below its average price of the last 50 days.

The S&P 500 is down 2.5 percent for October and counting amid Wednesday's slide.

"The selling is a result of selling the best performing stocks this year and it is difficult to time when that selling pressure will slow," said JC O'Hara, chief market technician at MKM Partners, in a note. "The best-performing decile of S&P 500 stocks this year is lower by 6.6 percent in October. Today, that basket is lower by 1.7 percent (the worst of all 10 deciles)."

"Until we see some stabilization in that basket, we will continue to see weakness," O'Hara said.

Netflix dropped more than 6 percent, while Amazon fell 3.3 percent on Wednesday. Facebook and Apple, meanwhile, pulled back at least 1.5 percent each.

Chipmaker stocks also fell sharply, with the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) falling 2.7 percent, on pace for its fifth straight day of losses. Nvidia and Micron are both down at least 4 percent.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/10/technic ... tocks.html


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Re: Midterms and the Economy - Paging JPC - Dow Plummets 800 Points

#7

Post by RTH10260 » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:51 pm

:twisted: I'm sure it's all Obamas fault :lol:



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Re: Midterms and the Economy - Paging JPC - Dow Plummets 800 Points

#8

Post by PaulG » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:55 pm

I hate the "points in a day" measure. One day doesn't mean much to me; it's the points lost in a week that really hurts. The first week of February the Dow lost something like 2700 points and it has taken most of the rest of year to get it back. If it drops 800 points today and then "only" loses 100 points a day for the next two weeks are the headlines going to say Dow crashes 2200 points? Or are they going to say Dow lost 100 points yesterday. God I hope this isn't the beginning of another crash.



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Re: Midterms and the Economy - Paging JPC - Dow Plummets 800 Points

#9

Post by Northland10 » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:55 pm

It's quite simple. Trump is causing the market to drop in order to destabilize the globalists and create confusion before implementing the mass arrests of the deep state cabal.

Who need JPC when the Qists can explain it all without the fakery economic language.


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Re: Midterms and the Economy - Paging JPC - Dow Plummets 800 Points

#10

Post by Tiredretiredlawyer » Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:01 pm

Mikedunford wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:29 pm
My speculation, which is undoubtedly nowhere near as sophisticated as what Gregg and John P. can provide:

1: The Fed is trying to apply the brakes to the economy, to keep many things under control.
2: The White House is mashing the gas pedal as hard as they can.

Too, also:
3: If Trump still has a lot of debt that he's servicing, he might not be thrilled at interest rates going up.
Trump services his debt? Is that what ignoring it is called now?


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Re: Midterms and the Economy - Paging JPC - Dow Plummets 800 Points

#11

Post by Orlylicious » Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:48 am

These things can change on a dime, but as of 2:45am EDT here's CNBC Pre Market:

Dow.JPG
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Re: Midterms and the Economy - Paging JPC - Dow Plummets 800 Points

#12

Post by Lani » Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:40 am

Fake news!!!!11#@!!!


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Re: Midterms and the Economy - Paging JPC - Dow Plummets 800 Points (Now 1300)

#13

Post by Orlylicious » Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:27 pm

Jim Hoft of Gateway Pundit has absolutely no idea what he's talking about, it's shockingly ignorant. But he publishes it on his conspiracy blog and ignorant Trumpers eat it up. I'm including all of it, it's just ridiculous. Jim doesn't realize Donald appointed Powell? Did Jim forget Bush 43 and his team nearly destroyed the economy? :brickwallsmall:
POWELL CRASHES TRUMP ECONOMIC BOOM! Raises Rates **AGAIN** on Trump — DOW DIVES 1,501 POINTS IN ONE WEEK! (Must Read)
by Jim Hoft October 11, 2018

President Trump enjoyed his 102nd stock market record last week.
Then Fed Chairman Jerome Powell raised the interests rates AGAIN under President Trump.
Now the Dow Jones is down 1500 1,743 1,501 points in the last week.

President Trump said the “Fed is crazy.” He’s right. Trump has been saying for the past year, with Stocks at all-time highs and unemployment at 50-year lows, the Fed’s interest rate increases show a far-left liberal bias. Right after Barack Obama was elected President, on December 16, 2008, the Federal Reserve (The Fed) lowered the Fed Funds rate by an entire percent, from 1% down to 0% .

The Fed had not lowered the Fed Funds rate by such a large amount (1% ) since at least before 1990, if ever. The Fed kept this 0% rate for most of Obama’s eight years in office. CNBC reported in December 2015 that President Obama oversaw “seven years of the most accommodative monetary policy in U.S. history” (from the Fed). The Fed Funds rate was at zero for most of Obama’s time in office. Finally, in December 2015 after the Fed announced its first increase in the Fed Funds rate during the Obama Presidency.

The only Fed Funds Rate increases since 2015 were after President Trump was elected President. The Fed increased the Fed Funds Rate now seven times. The Fed Funds Rate greatly impacts the economy:

Lower interest rates usually spur the economy by making corporate and consumer borrowing easier. Higher interest rates are intended to slow down the economy by making borrowing harder.

Increases in the Fed Funds Rate increase the cost of borrowing and the largest borrower in the world is the US government. With $20 trillion in debt, a 2% increase in interest payments equals $400 billion in annual interest payment increases or nearly a half a trillion dollars!

President Obama benefited from the lowest possible interest rates possible for seven of his eight years and in spite of this, nearly doubled the US Debt from $10 trillion to nearly $20 trillion. With no rate increases in interest rates, President Trump would arguably have a balanced budget to date. (Although the short term implications may not dictate this, the long term implications are clear.)

President Trump knows this and he previously stated that he is not happy with the Fed raising interest rates and killing the economy.
Last week with the DOW reached all-time highs, consumer confidence hit all time highs and unemployment hit its lowest rate in 50 years. The Fed then announced they would raise rates some more!
The Fed’s Jerome Powell said at a meeting in Boston:

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Tuesday he sees no need to drop the central bank’s current gradual approach to raising interest rates.

Powell said the combination of steady, low inflation and very low unemployment shows the country is going through “extraordinary times.”
The markets almost immediately responded and in spite of the great news on the stock markets and jobs, the markets declined. Another Trump rally – another Fed interest rate block! Yesterday as the market shed over 800 points, President Trump said the Fed has “Gone Crazy”. He really disagrees with what the Fed is doing.

The Deep State and the Fed don’t care about the American worker or taxpayer. It’s all about power. If they can tank the economy, decrease American’s 401ks and increase interest payments on the massive Obama debt, then they win. The only thing stopping President Trump from balancing the US Budget and keeping the economy on fire is the Fed’s rising rates. Trump’s right again and again – the Fed’s actions show it favors the left. The Fed has gone crazy!
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2018/1 ... 00-points/


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Re: Midterms and the Economy - Paging JPC - Dow Plummets 800 Points (Now 1300)

#14

Post by JohnPCapitalist » Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:44 pm

Orlylicious wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:00 pm
The last thing the GOP has to hold on to for the midterms is the economy. Tax cuts and other plans didn't excite voters, and Bart O'Kavanaugh is already fading into the distance for Republican voters. By overheating the economy in a quest for growth, along with the tariffs, it's been predicted this could happen.

JPC, if you have a moment, what's your take on this for the midterms? Does this bounce back or are we looking at a rough October? Asking because if we start to see financial pain, that's going to cut the knees out from under the GOP. As a side note, do you think this is a buying opportunity or do we have further to go?
Sorry I didn't see this until just now.

We're always looking at a rough October. It may be partly grounded in reality, but it's certainly a superstition as well... Mark Twain said this over 100 years ago: "October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February." (from "Puddnhead Wilson.")

Yes, there were a couple of pretty rough days but the market does appear to be rallying strongly. I think what's significant is that this is a major break in market momentum. It'll be weighing psychologically on people. If it happens again at least once before the midterms, then it could have an effect, especially if it takes the market into negative returns (as measured by the S&P 500) for the year -- we're relatively close to round-tripping now. While the average Trump fan almost certainly doesn't own individual stocks and most probably don't have any significant money in a 401k, it will certainly hit the suburban voter who has gotten fat on 8 years of an Obama recovery plus 1.5 years of continuing momentum in the Trump administration. That could drive more suburban voters away from the GOP, a pheonomenon that's already occurring.

Long term, the problem I have with current corporate operations is that there are very few places where money can go to work effectively -- stagnant household income (just starting to thaw in middle to upper income, not so much with the lower half of the curve) prevents people from going out and spending. Revenue growth for companies lags well below profit growth. So the market values profits almost exclusively.

The cut of corporate tax rates means companies have little incentive to do anything other than continue to cut costs (read: mostly labor, since they can't control prices of materials) and keep salting away cash. A higher corporate tax rate plus targeted tax credits would allow the government to come in and reward companies that give raises to workers instead of just trying to accumulate cash. No single company will give raises to workers if the playing field is not level because they'll drop their profits and others won't feel pressed to follow suit. Note, BTW, that Amazon's recent much-publicized move to $15 an hour for all warehouse staff is smoke and mirrors, as they've taken away stock awards and other incentives and many employees will see a drop in total comp as a result. If government gives some sort of tax credit so that all employers will give a higher % of sales in salaries to lower-paid workers, it gets money circulating back into the economy faster than waiting for unemployment to drop and drive wages up... BTW, we're at the lowest unemployment in decades, and wage growth is lagging way behind what historical models would predict, so companies are still hesitating to pay more even when conditions warrant.

But the tariffs from this utterly pointless and completely preventable series of trade wars that Trump has sparked will siphon a couple points of consumer spending (while not actually bringing jobs back to the US). That will slow sales growth but will likely have a bigger effect on profits. Most companies have fixed costs so that, at least in the short term, if sales go down 2% in a couple months, profits will go down by 5% or 10%. And that could lead to stock market losses of 15% to 20% because not only are profits dropping, but investors are less willing to pay a high multiple for each dollar of profits their shares entitles them to. That's called "multiple compression" and it's not a good thing, because it will damp out a market rebound on the other side, even if financial results from companies start to improve.



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Re: Midterms and the Economy - Paging JPC - Dow Plummets 800 Points (Now 1300)

#15

Post by Jez » Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:56 pm

JPC - May I say thank you for explaining all of this stuff in plain English? Even I, a total ignoramus about markets and economics (beyond the very lowest basics), can understand when you explain it like this. :)

Thank you. :) :thumbs:


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Re: Midterms and the Economy - Paging JPC - Dow Plummets 800 Points (Now 1300)

#16

Post by NotaPerson » Fri Oct 12, 2018 1:10 pm

Yeah, I actually follow financial and stock market news fairly closely, and almost no one write about this stuff as clearly as JPC!


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Re: Midterms and the Economy - Paging JPC - Dow Plummets 800 Points (Now 1300)

#17

Post by Orlylicious » Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:10 pm

Thanks so much JPC! You're amazing.

Folk have been saying all along these trade wars and tax cuts would have an impact but Donald thought he knew better... this is really the worst timing the GOP could get. Early voting has started. I don't know Simon Derrick but this is on CNBC.com tonight:
Market sell-off could get 'significantly worse' this week — and it echoes 1987 crash, strategist says
BNY Mellon’s chief currency strategist said the current sell-off echoes 1987 market crash, speaking to CNBC Tuesday.
Market activity could get much worse over the next week, and a no-deal Brexit could contribute to a risk off environment, he claimed.
Higher Treasury yields have unnerved investors, as well as political problems in Italy and worries over Brexit negotiations in the U.K.
Chloe Taylor
Published 5:32 AM ET Tue, 16 Oct 2018 Updated 6:30 AM ET Tue, 16 Oct 2018 CNBC.com

A strategist warned that ongoing sell-offs in equity markets are drawing slight parallels with the crash of the late 1980s. Simon Derrick, chief currency strategist at BNY Mellon, raised concerns Monday around recent market moves. "Without wishing to be too alarmist, there have been a few parallels to what was happening 30 years ago in terms of what's been happening to the dollar, what's been happening to oil prices, what's been happening to Treasury yields," he told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe."

"It's all very September/October 1987 from that perspective." Derrick referred to the volatile market, dubbed "Black Monday," that began on October 19, 1987, in Asia before spreading to Europe and then the United States later in the day. The Dow Jones industrial average fell more than 500 points — or 22 percent — in a single day.

Last week, major markets fell deep into the red with fears of an escalating trade war between the U.S. and China. Higher Treasury yields — effectively the cost of borrowing in the U.S. — also unnerved investors, as well as political problems in Italy and worries over Brexit negotiations in the U.K. Derrick was adamant that current events wouldn't play out like they did 1987, but said a "confluence of different circumstances" could lead to a serious risk-off event, leading the market to get significantly worse this week.

"Could it get significantly worse (this week)? Yes," he said.
***
One of those circumstances was a no-deal Brexit, Derrick explained, as negotiations between the U.K. and the EU continue to influence sterling's value and investor confidence. The U.K. leaves the bloc on March 29, by which time an agreement will have to be negotiated with the EU and voted through by the country's parliament to avoid a no-deal Brexit. Parliament's vote, according to Derrick, is where sterling's value truly hangs in the balance.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/16/market- ... lainternal

Was working at 30 Rock on Black Monday, it was wild. This sure seems like it will be interesting to voters along with the skyrocketing deficit and gas prices.


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Re: Midterms and the Economy - Paging JPC - Dow Plummets 800 Points (Now 1300)

#18

Post by NotaPerson » Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:14 pm

Well, to be perfectly honest, if one turns on CNBC just about any morning of the year, you'll hear some guest talking like that.

There is always, always a big stock market crash coming up. Always.

Unless of course there isn't.

Of course, after the period of time when there isn't, there will be a time when there actually is. :?

No one can predict with any degree of accuracy when one period ends and the other period begins.


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Re: Midterms and the Economy - Paging JPC - Dow Plummets 800 Points (Now 1300)

#19

Post by JohnPCapitalist » Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:39 pm

NotaPerson wrote:
Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:14 pm
There is always, always a big stock market crash coming up. Always.

Unless of course there isn't.

Of course, after the period of time when there isn't, there will be a time when there actually is. :?

No one can predict with any degree of accuracy when one period ends and the other period begins.
The old joke is quite succinct: economists have correctly predicted eleven of the last five recessions .



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Re: Midterms and the Economy - Paging JPC - Dow Plummets 800 Points (Now 1300)

#20

Post by Orlylicious » Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:55 pm

:lol: true JPC! And totally agree Nota but he is Bank of New York Mellon’s chief currency strategist. Looked him up quickly, will be interesting to see how good his predictions are. Hate seeing this happen to the economy, China is a real issue, the trade war is knocking the hell out of their market and historically, when they go down we do too. Maybe this will get voters out to put a check on this out of control GOP.
About Simon Derrick
Simon Derrick is a managing director of BNY Mellon and is head of the BNY Mellon Markets Strategy team. Simon established the team more than 10 years ago, and has guided its development into a preeminent center of excellence within BNY Mellon. His insights and commentaries have made him an indispensable source for financial journalists around the world, and his frequent on-air appearances have made him a fixture on electronic news outlets.

Prior to heading up the BNY Mellon Markets Strategy team, Simon managed The Bank of New York's European FX sales team for four years. Previously, he worked in sales and proprietary trading roles at Midland Bank (now part of HSBC), Banque Indosuez (now part of Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank) and Citibank. He is an honors graduate in geography from University College London.
https://www.bnymellon.com/us/en/our-thi ... errick.jsp

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Re: Midterms and the Economy - Paging JPC - Dow Plummets 800 Points (Now 1300)

#21

Post by Volkonski » Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:18 am




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Dow tumbles 425 points, or 1.7%, at the open on fears about earnings. S&P 500 drops 1.6%. Nasdaq sinks 2%. The selling was mostly triggered by disappointing earnings and guidance from major US companies. Watch live https://cnn.it/2CYHrrT

8:34 AM - 23 Oct 2018


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Re: Midterms and the Economy - Paging JPC - Dow Plummets 800 Points (Now 1300)

#22

Post by Volkonski » Wed Oct 24, 2018 4:31 pm

Today-

Dow Jones Industrial Average

24,583.42 −608.01 (2.41%)

The Dow has now lost all its gains since Jan 2 and is slightly negative YTD.

S&P 500 was down 3.1%. Nasdaq was down 4.4% .


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Re: Midterms and the Economy - Paging JPC - Dow Plummets 800 Points (Now 1300)

#23

Post by Chilidog » Wed Oct 24, 2018 4:33 pm

Thanks, Donald.



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Re: Midterms and the Economy - Paging JPC - Dow Plummets 800 Points (Now 1300)

#24

Post by MN-Skeptic » Wed Oct 24, 2018 4:46 pm

Let's see Trump bring that up at his rally tonight.


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Re: Midterms and the Economy - Paging JPC - Dow Plummets 800 Points (Now 1300)

#25

Post by much ado » Wed Oct 24, 2018 4:48 pm

MN-Skeptic wrote:
Wed Oct 24, 2018 4:46 pm
Let's see Trump bring that up at his rally tonight.
It's somebody else's fault. They're out to get him. (We sure are.)



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