They said Parliament was hung and they was right!

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bob
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Re: They said Parliament was hung and they was right!

#51

Post by bob » Fri Jun 09, 2017 6:15 pm

TollandRCR wrote:The Parliament ought to deliberate the question and arrive at a decision fully informed. May's mistake can be cast aside.
Parliament did -- in March.


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Re: They said Parliament was hung and they was right!

#52

Post by TollandRCR » Fri Jun 09, 2017 6:20 pm

bob wrote:
TollandRCR wrote:The Parliament ought to deliberate the question and arrive at a decision fully informed. May's mistake can be cast aside.
Parliament did -- in March.
No, a serious inquiry (months long) in which the nation can come to understand BREXIT. I doubt it would pass today.


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Re: They said Parliament was hung and they was right!

#53

Post by bob » Fri Jun 09, 2017 6:26 pm

TollandRCR wrote:No, a serious inquiry (months long) in which the nation can come to understand BREXIT. I doubt it would pass today.
The UK has already formally invoked Article 50. Whether the invocation can be revoked is a legal issue that is presently being debated. (Realpolitik suggests that, if all parties are willing, a workaround could be found or created, regardless of the exact terms of Article 50.)


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Re: They said Parliament was hung and they was right!

#54

Post by Mikedunford » Fri Jun 09, 2017 6:53 pm

bob wrote:
TollandRCR wrote:No, a serious inquiry (months long) in which the nation can come to understand BREXIT. I doubt it would pass today.
The UK has already formally invoked Article 50. Whether the invocation can be revoked is a legal issue that is presently being debated. (Realpolitik suggests that, if all parties are willing, a workaround could be found or created, regardless of the exact terms of Article 50.)
I'm more pessimistic. The EU's willingness will be determined in part by the power of minority factions of the various EU bodies involved to block any revocation.


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Re: They said Parliament was hung and they was right!

#55

Post by Hercule Parrot » Fri Jun 09, 2017 8:37 pm

TollandRCR wrote:The argument that polls alleviated Viscount Bryce's concern about referenda is one that I have made in published work. It is wrong. The people usually do not have enough information to make a good decision. In the Case of BREXIT, they were told lies.

The Parliament ought to deliberate the question and arrive at a decision fully informed. May's mistake can be cast aside.
You are absolutely right. In a complex matter like Brexit, a referendum is a very bad idea. We have leaders, scientists, economists and lawyers, people who can assemble a thorough and complete assessment of the situation and advise parliament towards the available options. Throwing the question to the mob, accompanied by lies and propaganda, is a poor substitute for democratically accountable debate in parliament.

I would also add that the reduction of Brexit to Yes/No was absurd. The range of issues could not possibly be expressed through that lens. It forced a false polarization of a complex subject, and drove out all measured debate. The masses were whipped into a frenzy of isolationist chauvinism, and all was lost.

And we are here as on a darkling plain
Swept with confused alarms of struggle and flight,
Where ignorant armies clash by night
.



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Re: They said Parliament was hung and they was right!

#56

Post by Hercule Parrot » Fri Jun 09, 2017 8:48 pm

Mikedunford wrote:
bob wrote:
TollandRCR wrote:No, a serious inquiry (months long) in which the nation can come to understand BREXIT. I doubt it would pass today.
The UK has already formally invoked Article 50. Whether the invocation can be revoked is a legal issue that is presently being debated. (Realpolitik suggests that, if all parties are willing, a workaround could be found or created, regardless of the exact terms of Article 50.)
I'm more pessimistic. The EU's willingness will be determined in part by the power of minority factions of the various EU bodies involved to block any revocation.
That's true, some of our European friends are understandably fed up with UK wanting special terms and being petulant about everything. But to go through with Brexit would be costly and disruptive for everyone, and we are a net contributor to the EU. If France, Germany and Italy cooperated in a fudge to let article 50 drift into the weeds, I don't think the regional parliament of Walloon could force it otherwise. This assumes that the UK has second thoughts of course .



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Re: They said Parliament was hung and they was right!

#57

Post by bob » Fri Jun 09, 2017 9:03 pm

Hercule Parrot wrote:This assumes that the UK has second thoughts of course .
Assuming revocation is politically possible, what might the EU expect the UK to do to show that won't have third thoughts (i.e., invoke, revoke, re-invoke?)?


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Re: They said Parliament was hung and they was right!

#58

Post by Mikedunford » Fri Jun 09, 2017 9:06 pm

Hercule Parrot wrote:
Mikedunford wrote:
bob wrote: The UK has already formally invoked Article 50. Whether the invocation can be revoked is a legal issue that is presently being debated. (Realpolitik suggests that, if all parties are willing, a workaround could be found or created, regardless of the exact terms of Article 50.)
I'm more pessimistic. The EU's willingness will be determined in part by the power of minority factions of the various EU bodies involved to block any revocation.
That's true, some of our European friends are understandably fed up with UK wanting special terms and being petulant about everything. But to go through with Brexit would be costly and disruptive for everyone, and we are a net contributor to the EU. If France, Germany and Italy cooperated in a fudge to let article 50 drift into the weeds, I don't think the regional parliament of Walloon could force it otherwise. This assumes that the UK has second thoughts of course .
The Walloon parliament concerns me less than the CJEU - which sometimes seems to consider common law as an obstacle to the proper functioning of the common market.


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Re: They said Parliament was hung and they was right!

#59

Post by Sterngard Friegen » Fri Jun 09, 2017 11:38 pm

With May gone the Brits may get a PM who will withdraw the invitation for Trump to visit.



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Re: They said Parliament was hung and they was right!

#60

Post by Sam the Centipede » Fri Jun 09, 2017 11:47 pm

TollandRCR wrote:I hesitate to speak to the British about how to run a democracy.
Why? They have a completely undemocratic upper house built on patronage and corruption and a system that produces unrepresentative results for their lower house in which minority parties are viciously under-represented. Hesitation is not required!
TollandRCR wrote:However, an issue as important as BREXIT should never have been decided by referendum. :snippity:
But you write as though a group of senior politicians discussed the issue and concluded "this is the correct way to do things". The Conservatives were afraid that they might lose a general election so they threw the pledge of a referendum into their manifesto as populist bait. They thought it would attract votes from people who were tempted by UKIP, and they wanted to hold onto power, mmm, lovely power. They half-expected to lose anyway and the pledge would hzve been great for an opposition party - opposition parties can always have wonderful policies, untrammeled by practical considerations! They misjudged the mood of the country (and underestimated the mendacity of their "leave" wing) and held the referendum expecting a "remain" vote, which would have gifted them a good excuse to brush away a divisive issue for several years. If the leadership had anticipated that result, they would have avoided a referendum somehow. And this general election result follows the same pattern where the Conservatives misjudged the public mood and dug themselves into a completely unnecessary hole.

The referendum pledge, the referendum itself, the general election were all invoked as expedient, nothing more, not for any reason of principle. And the results were not as those invoking them expected.



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Re: They said Parliament was hung and they was right!

#61

Post by NMgirl » Sat Jun 10, 2017 12:32 am

Hercule Parrot wrote:.

And we are here as on a darkling plain
Swept with confused alarms of struggle and flight,
Where ignorant armies clash by night
.
So there stood Matthew Arnold and this girl
With the cliffs of England crumbling away behind them,
And he said to her, "Try to be true to me,
And I'll do the same for you, for things are bad
All over...


Stern: Come back. My posts are becoming sloppy and ill-thought out.

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Re: They said Parliament was hung and they was right!

#62

Post by Judge Mental » Sat Jun 10, 2017 4:02 am

Hercule Parrot wrote:.....That's true, some of our European friends are understandably fed up with UK wanting special terms and being petulant about everything. But to go through with Brexit would be costly and disruptive for everyone, and we are a net contributor to the EU. If France, Germany and Italy cooperated in a fudge to let article 50 drift into the weeds, I don't think the regional parliament of Walloon could force it otherwise. This assumes that the UK has second thoughts of course .
Probably not intentional (given the closing sentence) but the tense of "would be costly and disruptive'' tense therein might suggest to some that there could be a serious expectation that not going through with Brexit at all is a genuine potential possibility. Personally hold the view that if any such expectations are held by anyone they are probably founded far more in hopes and wishes than in cold rational reality.......and that Brexit will most certainly go ahead no matter who (if anyone at all) replaces May.



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Re: They said Parliament was hung and they was right!

#63

Post by Sam the Centipede » Sat Jun 10, 2017 5:32 am

I dunno JM: we have seen referendums and elections go awry in recent years, opinions could change. What if the post-exit deal looks horrible and the natural pro-remain majority* asserts its views, and politicians realize that they will be forever blamed for doing something stupid that they didn't belirve in, so they want to stop it?

So, MPs (UK MPs have not typically shown great moral fortitude over the years) decide that they want the protection of a referendum, and the electorate votes "no" to the deal offered. Then the UK goes to the EU and says "we'd like to rescind our notice to quit, please". My guess is that the EU would find a way to keep the UK in, probably with the loss of some rebates on contributions or some other sackcloth and ashes.

Do I expect that to happen? No. Could it happen? Yes.

* I think there's a natural "remain" majority because younger people were under-represented in the referendum while bitter old people voted enthusiastically out of spite. As the general election showed, the more community-minded young voters are now more motivated to get involved. And demographics means that "leave" voters are dying off while new "remain" voters join the rolls.



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Re: They said Parliament was hung and they was right!

#64

Post by Hercule Parrot » Sat Jun 10, 2017 6:45 am

Sam the Centipede wrote:
TollandRCR wrote:I hesitate to speak to the British about how to run a democracy.
Why? They have a completely undemocratic upper house built on patronage and corruption ....
Absolutely true, and don't forget the centuries of aristocratic greed, or the bizarre presence of 21 Christian bishops to supervise our supposedly diverse and secular society. And the ranks of purchased peerages, the disgraced and surplus politicians who are eased out into cosy ermine (Mrs May, shortly).

But yet, a strange transformation occurs for many who enter the upper house. Free of the need to manoeuvre for power in the turbulent greasy pole sector, they start thinking like statesmen (and women). And they become a restraining influence upon the government of the day, who may be aggressively pushing the Overton Window.

As a young man I despised Lords and Judges because of their inherent conservatism. In a Neo-Con 21st century, I appreciate their dampening effect. But we need a higher proportion of wise old scientists, philosophers and generals in there.



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Re: They said Parliament was hung and they was right!

#65

Post by Hercule Parrot » Sat Jun 10, 2017 7:24 am

Judge Mental wrote:Probably not intentional (given the closing sentence) but the tense of "would be costly and disruptive'' tense therein might suggest to some that there could be a serious expectation that not going through with Brexit at all is a genuine potential possibility. Personally hold the view that if any such expectations are held by anyone they are probably founded far more in hopes and wishes than in cold rational reality.......and that Brexit will most certainly go ahead no matter who (if anyone at all) replaces May.
Very possibly, but I think we're in new territory here. Old conventions are not reliable, and so many stakeholders involved. What if terms cannot be agreed within the time period? What if the European parliament or the UK parliament rejects the proposed terms? Or if the UK government at that time declined to enact the necessary final steps? Or if King Charles expresses his wish for the final terms to be ratified by referendum? Or a well-funded group launches a barrage of legal challenges, bogging everything down in endless appeal hearings in Strasbourg and UK?

Clearly it is nonetheless possible that a brutal automaticity will simply push UK off the cliff on the due date, because no-one is able (or willing) to throw a spanner into the works. But the machinery required for Brexit is so complex and fragile, I really wouldn't be surprised if there are problems.

And the critical final point is the decaying popular mandate for Brexit. Every year the UK electorate gains about 1m young new voters, and loses about 1m elders. This implies a 1-2% shift towards Remain, every year. The referendum margin was 52/48, so it only has moral force for two years or so.



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Re: They said Parliament was hung and they was right!

#66

Post by pipistrelle » Sat Jun 10, 2017 8:03 am

Hercule Parrot wrote:And the critical final point is the decaying popular mandate for Brexit. Every year the UK electorate gains about 1m young new voters, and loses about 1m elders. This implies a 1-2% shift towards Remain, every year. The referendum margin was 52/48, so it only has moral force for two years or so.
Part of why something like this should not have been done by referendum.



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Re: They said Parliament was hung and they was right!

#67

Post by Reality Check » Sat Jun 10, 2017 8:24 am

I was wrong last year when I predicted Brexit would never happen. Maybe I still have a chance to be right after all. :think:

My theory is that Trump has scared the crap out of everyone in the rest of the world and has awakened young people to the fact that voting really does matter. :pray:


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Re: They said Parliament was hung and they was right!

#68

Post by Mikedunford » Sat Jun 10, 2017 8:39 am

Hercule Parrot wrote:Clearly it is nonetheless possible that a brutal automaticity will simply push UK off the cliff on the due date, because no-one is able (or willing) to throw a spanner into the works. But the machinery required for Brexit is so complex and fragile, I really wouldn't be surprised if there are problems.
The way the language of the treaty is written, the UK has already jumped off the cliff. The parties have less than two years left to negotiate the question of whether there will be a safety net at the bottom. In the absence of an agreement, splat happens.


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Re: They said Parliament was hung and they was right!

#69

Post by TexasFilly » Sat Jun 10, 2017 8:47 am

Mikedunford wrote:
The way the language of the treaty is written, the UK has already jumped off the cliff. The parties have less than two years left to negotiate the question of whether there will be a safety net at the bottom. In the absence of an agreement, splat happens.
Best. Legal. Writing. Evah. Clear, concise and compelling! :like:


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Re: They said Parliament was hung and they was right!

#70

Post by Reality Check » Sat Jun 10, 2017 9:07 am

Mikedunford wrote: The way the language of the treaty is written, the UK has already jumped off the cliff. The parties have less than two years left to negotiate the question of whether there will be a safety net at the bottom. In the absence of an agreement, splat happens.
Yes, that is the way I understood it worked with Article 50. Once invoked it starts the process with no return. However, there is one out. If every member state accepts the exited country back it can be revoked. It's very unlikely and I can't imaging the grovelling the UK would have to do to undo invoking Article 50. Technically it could happen though.

Also, the two year negotiating window can be extended; again unanimous consent of the EU members is required for that to happen.


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Re: They said Parliament was hung and they was right!

#71

Post by Reality Check » Sat Jun 10, 2017 9:33 am

British Prime Minister Theresa May's top two aides quit on Saturday after her Conservative Party failed to win a majority in a national election.
Nick Timothy, May's co-chief of staff, said on the ConservativeHome website that he stepped down on Friday, while the BBC reported that Fiona Hill had also quit.

"The reason for the disappointing result was not the absence of support for Theresa May and the Conservatives but an unexpected surge in support for Labour," Timothy wrote.

"I take responsibility for my part in this election campaign, which was the oversight of our policy programme. In particular, I regret the decision not to include in the manifesto a ceiling as well as a floor in our proposal to help meet the increasing cost of social care," he added.


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Re: They said Parliament was hung and they was right!

#72

Post by Mikedunford » Sat Jun 10, 2017 10:49 am

Reality Check wrote:British Prime Minister Theresa May's top two aides quit on Saturday after her Conservative Party failed to win a majority in a national election.
Nick Timothy, May's co-chief of staff, said on the ConservativeHome website that he stepped down on Friday, while the BBC reported that Fiona Hill had also quit.

"The reason for the disappointing result was not the absence of support for Theresa May and the Conservatives but an unexpected surge in support for Labour," Timothy wrote.

"I take responsibility for my part in this election campaign, which was the oversight of our policy programme. In particular, I regret the decision not to include in the manifesto a ceiling as well as a floor in our proposal to help meet the increasing cost of social care," he added.
The highlighted language is largely correct. The Tories improved their 2015 vote totals both in terms of raw numbers and percentage of votes received.


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Re: They said Parliament was hung and they was right!

#73

Post by Reality Check » Sat Jun 10, 2017 1:33 pm

Mikedunford wrote: The highlighted language is largely correct. The Tories improved their 2015 vote totals both in terms of raw numbers and percentage of votes received.
Both the Tories and Labour benefited from the collapse of the UKIP and to a lesser extent the SNP and the Greens. Labour just grabbed more of those voters. It appears that support for Brexit has dropped or people thought Brexit was a done deal and came back home.


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Re: They said Parliament was hung and they was right!

#74

Post by Hercule Parrot » Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:49 pm

Reality Check wrote:
Mikedunford wrote: The way the language of the treaty is written, the UK has already jumped off the cliff. The parties have less than two years left to negotiate the question of whether there will be a safety net at the bottom. In the absence of an agreement, splat happens.
Yes, that is the way I understood it worked with Article 50. Once invoked it starts the process with no return. However, there is one out. If every member state accepts the exited country back it can be revoked. It's very unlikely and I can't imaging the grovelling the UK would have to do to undo invoking Article 50. Technically it could happen though.

Also, the two year negotiating window can be extended; again unanimous consent of the EU members is required for that to happen.
The short answer is yes, Article 50 can be revoked ...

... Probably.

The law is unclear, but there have been a few clues from legal authorities as to whether Article 50 reversible. Most recently, a leaked European Parliament draft resolution has said that the UK will be able to revoke Article 50 before it expires if the rest of the EU agrees.

That sounds tough — the UK would need 27 other countries to vote to let us back in. But in the scenario of a new prime minister who favours Remain or a soft Brexit into the EEA, it would suit all parties just fine

http://www.businessinsider.com/can-arti ... ion-2017-6?



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Re: They said Parliament was hung and they was right!

#75

Post by Reality Check » Sat Jun 10, 2017 4:34 pm

Hercule Parrot wrote: The short answer is yes, Article 50 can be revoked ...

... Probably.
:snippity:
http://www.businessinsider.com/can-arti ... ion-2017-6?


Thanks Hercule. I forgot to add a link but my information came from an article in the Daily Telegraph as I recall. It sounds as if it is not as cut and dry as we thought. I could see a scenario where the negotiations are going badly for PM May (I believe they will because the EU has no incentive to give the UK a good deal because it would only encourage others to follow) and a new UK government is formed. This new government could then say the support for Brexit has collapsed and we'd like to revoke our application to leave. This is far fetched but I think it is not impossible.


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