LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

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Mikedunford
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#76

Post by Mikedunford »

Tarrant wrote:So, the BBC is reporting that the European Commission has pretty much told Cameron that they have no interest in 4-6 months of unstable markets while the Tories delay and then have a leadership fight, and then have THAT new leader deal with leaving. They want the UK to invoke the withdrawal clause within a week.
That would almost certainly be in the best interests of the EU, but it might not be in the best interests of the UK. (My gut instinct is that it would not be in their immediate interest.)
"I don't give a fuck whether we're peers or not."
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Karen Walker
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#77

Post by Karen Walker »

Edit: This was originally meant to address Trump's continued disrespect of Scotland & their vote to remain. I kinda went sideways on a Trump rant. Carry on.
I was glad to see *MSNBC cut away from Fuckface von Clownstick's golf commercial this morning & then rip him to shreds over it.

The fine folks in Scotland should begin building a wall around Turnberry & Aberdeen. They'd do it too. They ain't skeered of nobody - especially Trump.

Looking forward to the next FEC report showing his "campaign expenses" for this charade.

*Willie & Nicole were filling in for Joe & Mika. I say they should make it permanent.

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Mikedunford
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#78

Post by Mikedunford »

Tarrant wrote:The top 5 turnout areas of the U.K. voted Leave.

The bottom 5 turnout areas of the U.K. voted Remain.

Had the turnout in the bottom 5 matched that of the top 5, Remain would have prevailed.

Remember, people, in the US and elsewhere. VOTE. It doesn't matter if you don't think your vote will count or matter. I bet some of those people felt like Remain was just bound to win and so they didn't take the time to vote. Many of them are publicly regretting it now.

I get that those in favor of Leave were generally more passionate than those in favor of Remain. But those Remain supporters that didn't vote are probably pretty damn passionate about it now.
Weather may have been a partial factor with the London area, although I think it's doubtful it would have been enough to swing the difference. The tube and rail services for much of the commute home were completely and utterly befucked all evening, with journeys taking 3-4 times as long as normal.
"I don't give a fuck whether we're peers or not."
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TollandRCR
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#79

Post by TollandRCR »

Sterngard Friegen wrote:... As for destabilizing the world, I do note that democracies generally don't go to war against each other. So I'm not all that doom and gloom unless dictatorships start to arise in Europe.
I don't predict that war will break out on the European continent anytime soon. Nor do I expect dictatorships to arise in Europe anytime soon.

However, Michael Doyle's thesis that democracies generally don't go to war against each other needs several sorts of clarification. First, what is a "democracy?" Second, what is "war?" Third, what time period are we talking about? Does this generalization apply only to modern democracies, or should we take into account the Greek city-states? Fourth, are we talking only about wars between nation-states or should we also discuss civil wars?

J. David Singer spent much of his life constructing a data set, The Correlates of War, in which he tried to capture every militarized dispute among states from 1816 on. He and his colleague, Melvin Small, did not accept the "democratic peace" thesis. At the same time, Singer saw the 1990s worldwide movement towards democratic forms of governance as healthy for world peace.

Europe has a striking predilection for destroying itself in continent-wide wars. In some cases that was because a conqueror was seeking to expand an empire (Napoleon, Hitler). I don't expect such a conqueror to emerge in Europe -- but then most political leaders did not expect Hitler and then did not expect what he did.
“The truth is, we know so little about life, we don’t really know what the good news is and what the bad news is.” Kurt Vonnegut

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Butterfly Bilderberg
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#80

Post by Butterfly Bilderberg »

Karen Walker wrote:
*Willie & Nicole were filling in for Joe & Mika. I say they should make it permanent.
:yeah: Watching Joe and Mika recently pivot from sycophants to pseudojournalistwannabes was whiplash inducing.
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and that deems the glittering conqueror bountiful."
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EastStander
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#81

Post by EastStander »

I have had many pleasurable hours here reading the intelligent and thoughtful contributions on all manner of subjects. Due to almost all of those threads being concerned with US issues though, and me being a Brit living in the UK, I've never felt that I had a good enough grasp of the issues to say something with any degree of authority. But I find it somewhat offensive to find my political choice (I voted 'out') characterised as being that of the white, elderly, poorly-educated rural-dwelling voter, and that I have in some way got it in for todays children and grandchildren. I am neither elderly, poorly-educated, or rural dwelling. And even if I were all of those things, does that mean my view is in some way invalid? I have children and grandchildren, and I find also offensive the notion that I do not wish for anything except that they should have the best opportunities to succeed in life.

I voted 'holding my nose' as they say. Nigel Farage is a deeply unpleasant character, and beneath the buffoonery, so is Boris Johnson. But to equate either of these two with the douchebaggery that is Trump as some have done, is grotesque. Is it so bad to want to be able to control the number of people who enter our country to levels that can be sustained by our Education System and Health Service? Why should we have to accept laws and regulations that have not been made by our own lawmakers, but by people for whom we have not voted? Before yesterday, the only opportunity we were given to vote was forty years ago, when the aim of the EU was that of a trading partnership - the European Economic Community. We voted 'yes' to that, but we were not told at that time that the aim of the EU was to be "ever-closer union". That "ever-closer union" is a euphemism for a United States of Europe. And finally, you might not be aware that for the last eight weeks, we have been subjected on an almost daily basis to an avalanche of threats and dire predictions from Government Departments, big business, z-list celebrities, footballers, the Prime Minister and his Chancellor of the Exchequer. This culminated in an outrageous threat by the Chancellor to have an 'austerity budget' should we vote 'out', and that "the job cuts will start on Friday". The austerity budget has not been mentioned again, and now, on Friday evening, the jobs cuts have failed to materialise. Quelle surprise! The Prime Minister has now said he will stand down, and the position of the Chancellor is looking increasingly untenable. Two privileged, Eton-educated millionaires who have probably had no close dealings with ordinary people in their lives have had their comeuppance, and it feels good, to be honest.

Sorry if this comes across as triumphalist, but I feel better now!

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ObjectiveDoubter
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#82

Post by ObjectiveDoubter »

TexasFilly wrote:OD, take good notes while you are there, and report back. :bighug:
Hey! I'll be busy shopping! The pound has gone down to as low as 1.34. I'ts 1.37 now. I remember when it was 2 to 1! But indeed, I'll be watching and reporting.

Visiting with my Scottish friend on Sunday -- he lives in Hythe on the English Channel. When I go there, I expect Miss Marple to pop out of the one of the shops, any second. It looks exactly like a set from Masterpiece Theater, down to the 400 year old tavern and hollyhocks everywhere. And every house has its own name. Truly! I'll post a picture on Sunday, it's so incredibly quaint.

Anyhow, my friend is fit to be tied. His parents, still in Scotland, cannot believe what's going on, and they want a revote on the referendum held recently there, about staying tied to the UK. It failed, but would probably pass today. The Scots are angry!

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TollandRCR
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#83

Post by TollandRCR »

EastStander wrote:I have had many pleasurable hours here reading the intelligent and thoughtful contributions on all manner of subjects. Due to almost all of those threads being concerned with US issues though, and me being a Brit living in the UK, I've never felt that I had a good enough grasp of the issues to say something with any degree of authority.
Thanks very much for this.

Over the years I have had conversations with politically astute Europeans over what I have seen as the deeply non-democratic governance of the EU hierarchy. Mostly, there was just a shrug and a bit of agreement. However, it was not seen as a problem. Perhaps now it will be.
“The truth is, we know so little about life, we don’t really know what the good news is and what the bad news is.” Kurt Vonnegut

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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#84

Post by Adrianinflorida »

Sterngard Friegen wrote:The UK was never fully in the EU. Old Blighty drivers continue to drive on the wrong side of the road and our English cousins still use the Pound Sterling. As for destabilizing the world, I do note that democracies generally don't go to war against each other. So I'm not all that doom and gloom unless dictatorships start to arise in Europe.
The UK honestly had a sweetheart deal. To be able to reap the rewards of free movement and trade, and remain on the GB Pound, and still maintain border controls more strict than the rest of the EU (Passport checks for all arriving passengers in the UK, as opposed to only for non EU passport holders in the rest of the EU)

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Butterfly Bilderberg
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#85

Post by Butterfly Bilderberg »

EastStander, you put forward a rational argument in favor of the exit, but I am sure that you understood the market and labor (or should I say, labour) disruptions that would be felt for some time afterwards. You no doubt weighed the pros and cons and arrived at a considered decision how you should vote.

I think what dismays us is that, unlike you, many of your countrymen voted without really comprehending what the economic consequences would be, both domestically and internationally. The uptick in Google research, post hoc, evidences this.

Please don't let the opinions of some of us intimate you from participating. We are (or try to be) a welcoming community that respects varying viewpoints so long as they are thoughtful and fact-based. Like yours.
"Pity the nation that acclaims the bully as hero,
and that deems the glittering conqueror bountiful."
- Kahlil Gibran, The Garden of The Prophet

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Piffle
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#86

Post by Piffle »

<offtopic>
ObjectiveDoubter wrote: Hey! I'll be busy shopping! The pound has gone down to as low as 1.34. I'ts 1.37 now. I remember when it was 2 to 1! But indeed, I'll be watching and reporting. <snip>
Have a great trip, OD!</offtopic>

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Butterfly Bilderberg
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#87

Post by Butterfly Bilderberg »

I wuz contemplating a PacNW vacation after reading in Coastal Living about Peace Vans, a Seattle outfit that rents VW Westphalia campers for six-day (and longer) trips. Nostalgia is setting in as I age. My first camping trip was in a 40 hp VW camper when, in 1964, my family put all of our stuff in storage and set out on a road trip to see as much of the U.S. as we could pack into two months. In later years we graduated to roomier digs but our vacations always took us to or through Oregon and Washington and beyond.

However, a trip to Britain is looking like a good travel deal. I'm gonna shake the coins out of my piggy banknow and count them.
"Pity the nation that acclaims the bully as hero,
and that deems the glittering conqueror bountiful."
- Kahlil Gibran, The Garden of The Prophet

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Gregg
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#88

Post by Gregg »

Maybe I'm just one of the Elitist, stuffy, London School of Economics, internationalist millionaires who is out of touch with real people. And of course, I haven't set foot on Great Britain in almost 18 years and am an American so its none of my damn business anyhow. All true.

On the other hand, I have always loved England and Britain, my ancestors came from Wales and and seeing how I was at least partially educated there I feel a deep gratitude every time I even think about your country.

But the facts are these, the world economy is global and getting more so every day. Going it alone isn't a viable option, so why would England, an island nation whose economy has been based upon overseas trade for 400 years, vote to isolate itself? Among other things, Brexit essentially was a vote to raise taxes (and these are taxes paid to OTHER COUNTRIES FFS!) and restrict trade? Scotland is half likely to now secede from the UK, which creates another border closing England in even more. Unless of someone plans on digging up Edward I to hold the Union together.

One of the things that in the USA got some play was Britain Leave supporters were against the tight regulation of UK goods to comply with EU regulations. Buckle up Buttercup, if you plan on selling anything outside of England, you're still going to have to comply with those standards, businesses in the USA routinely comply with those rules (most Americans don't even know what the little CE symbol on most anything we buy means) and if you don't want to, there are plenty of businesses here, in Europe, Asia and Botswana that don't mind.

So, there it is. Its done. No amount of my bitching is going to change it. I can only hope that its not a sign that the USA hasn't gone so xenophobic that we don't follow suit and elect our own immigrant bashing bigoted moron so he can try to recreate Hardian's wall on our border (even if we have yet to grasp how well that worked out, I'd have thought you would have, its on YOUR border afterall). So, with not much sincerity I must congratulate you, now you can kick out all those dirty foreigners and put your people on the dole to work filling in the channel tunnel to keep them out. You won't have to worry about me darkening your doorstep anytime soon, either.

For years I have poked fun out our government by saying I think we should ask Her Majesty very nicely to have us back. I point out that given the taxes we pay and the representatives we have, the whole "No taxation without Representation!" thing doesn't sound like that bad an idea, and I'm sure if we sent the Queen a boatload of tea we could probably cut a deal. No more. The process set upon while Churchill was rallying the country to fight on alone, the last time England stood alone, is now falling apart. The alliance that more than anything else, for near 70 years has kept the peace in Europe, the longest sustained period of peace on the continent since the middle ages, isn't good enough for the world's greatest and most admired democracy anymore.

I wish you well, cousins.
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BillTheCat
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#89

Post by BillTheCat »

I never thought I would see the days when fascism returned to Europe. I was sure we'd never forget and would not repeat the mistakes of the 1930's.

But after witnessing the rise of the fascist right in Germany, Austria, France, Greece, and England over the past 10 years, and seeing the reaction to refugees in Europe, and now the start of the break up of the EU - I'd have to say I was wrong.

"God" help this planet. :blackeye:
'But I don't want to go among mad people,' said Alice. 'Oh, you can't help that,' said the cat. 'We're all mad here.'
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#90

Post by BBFlatt »

Gregg wrote: :snippity:
One of the things that in the USA got some play was Britain Leave supporters were against the tight regulation of UK goods to comply with EU regulations. Buckle up Buttercup, if you plan on selling anything outside of England, you're still going to have to comply with those standards, businesses in the USA routinely comply with those rules (most Americans don't even know what the little CE symbol on most anything we buy means) and if you don't want to, there are plenty of businesses here, in Europe, Asia and Botswana that don't mind.

:snippity:
Only now, the U.K. will have no say at all in those regulations.

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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#91

Post by Gregg »

It'll start in Greece. A populist demagogue will start blaming their bouncing pension checks on the nasty Germans and within a decade all hell will break loose.

I like the think that from my own experiences there that Germany has truly been cured of the hatred that led to the rise of the Nazi's. I'm aware that there is a modern neo-nazi/nationalist movement but I can't imagine it would catch on. But Greece is honestly ripe for it, and eventually Yeltsin or whomever follows him will see a chance to exploit that and start helping them cause trouble....and being Europe, someone will figure out how to make that cause 20 million people to die. I'm pretty dark today....
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#92

Post by Mikedunford »

EastStander wrote:I voted 'holding my nose' as they say. Nigel Farage is a deeply unpleasant character, and beneath the buffoonery, so is Boris Johnson. But to equate either of these two with the douchebaggery that is Trump as some have done, is grotesque.
Please do not take the following unduly personally, but you have just become literally the 8th person to Brexplain to me that this wasn't about racism, and that you don't like Nigel or Boris.

I've been a guest in your country for nearly a year, and have about as much time remaining. In the time I've been here, my respect for the UK has grown, and my respect for the EU has shrunk. I don't expect that to change very much (if at all) as a result of today's vote. I've tried (for various reasons) to stay out of the discussion as much as possible during the campaign, and I've been noncommittal when asked what I think. And that's not just out of diplomatic politeness. While I thought that the leave decision was not the best option, the more I've studied the EU system, the more clear it's become to me that you can't have a fully functional and fully integrated common market without also having strong central controls. And having a strong central bureaucracy in the absence of a strong representative government is just asking for trouble, in so many ways.

There were many non-racist reasons to leave. But - you know what, I've already written all this once today, and I really lack the energy to do it again. So here's the link to what I wrote earlier this afternoon:

http://thequestionableauthority.blogspo ... p-now.html
"I don't give a fuck whether we're peers or not."
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#93

Post by Reality Check »

Eastender, IMO methinks you bought a load of codswallop. The number of refugees entering the UK per capita is far less that most countries in the EU. Anything that Trump and Putin think is a good thing probably isn't.

Are you saying the UK had no representation in the EU? Having representation doesn't mean always getting your way. I think the UK will probably become an insignificant country called England in a few years if it continues this isolationist path.

The concept of a national referendum decided by a simple majority vote on such a significant issue is pure insanity.
"“If you’re not outraged, you’re not paying attention.”

Heather Heyer, November 2016

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listeme
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#94

Post by listeme »

EastStander, while I won't comment on your realities or your reasoning, like it or not, the votes of you and your likeminded fellows have affected me and mine. This is a global world and I have friends and family all over the place that are concretely affected by this decision. Therefore I feel that I have the right to criticize this decision, just like you could criticize those who might vote for Trump and give him nukes.

Destabilization affects us all. I consider this a bad day.
We're used to being told it's our fault that men don't listen to us.

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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#95

Post by BillTheCat »

Unfortunately, much of the "non-racist" reasons for leaving were complete bullshit too. So there's that.

Racist, non-racist, whatever - most of it adds up to unabashed Nationalism.
'But I don't want to go among mad people,' said Alice. 'Oh, you can't help that,' said the cat. 'We're all mad here.'
-Lewis Carroll

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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#96

Post by Slarti the White »

I left this comment on Mike's blog post:
Well said Mike. I think what you talk about is the inevitable conclusion of not speaking out against those that employ demagoguery, bigotry and eschew scientific and fact-based reasoning simply because they are on the same side as you are. That silence is a ringing endorsement of both the ends justifying the means and the groups promoting hate with specious reasoning.

No matter how strong anyone's case for leaving was, they cannot change the fact that they got what they wanted by letting liars play on people's fears rather than by convincing them on the merits of pulling out of the EU. They bought Farange and UKIP with their silence and now they own them. I only hope that US will avoid a similar purchase of fearmongering and anti-scientific bigotry this fall.
"Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat."
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#97

Post by Mikedunford »

Krugman, as is often true, makes sense.
"So calm down about the short-run macroeconomics; grieve for Europe, but you should have been doing that already; worry about Britain."
"I don't give a fuck whether we're peers or not."
--Lord Thomas Henry Bingham to Boris Johnson, on being asked whether he would miss being in "the best club in London" if the Law Lords moved from Parliament to a Supreme Court.

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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#98

Post by tek »

EastStander wrote:I have had many pleasurable hours here reading the intelligent and thoughtful contributions on all manner of subjects. Due to almost all of those threads being concerned with US issues though, and me being a Brit living in the UK, I've never felt that I had a good enough grasp of the issues to say something with any degree of authority. But I find it somewhat offensive to find my political choice (I voted 'out') characterised as being that of the white, elderly, poorly-educated rural-dwelling voter, and that I have in some way got it in for todays children and grandchildren. I am neither elderly, poorly-educated, or rural dwelling. And even if I were all of those things, does that mean my view is in some way invalid? I have children and grandchildren, and I find also offensive the notion that I do not wish for anything except that they should have the best opportunities to succeed in life.
Thank you for joining the discussion and adding your perspective! :like:
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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#99

Post by Skip Intro »

Image
In the Trump era anything is true if enough people believe it.

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Re: LEAVE Brexit Vote: Leave EU Thu 23 June - Market and US Election Impact

#100

Post by tek »

ObjectiveDoubter wrote:Hey! I'll be busy shopping! The pound has gone down to as low as 1.34. I'ts 1.37 now. I remember when it was 2 to 1! But indeed, I'll be watching and reporting.
My daughter was shopping for tack at 5AM EDT.
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